The first community outbreak in the country is worrisome for two reasons: First, the victims were exposed to the virus due to a medical mission and second, everyone got the virus locally. (see story here). This is quite dangerous, since the virus is now spreading locally and even doctors don't know how to handle such a potentially virulent strain of the virus.
The Department of Health (DoH) seems capable of doing its job but, somewhere, somewhat, it's bungling it. They want to allay fears by telling that the virus is "mild", and not lethal. Yet, it says that the potential of the virus morphing into a more virulent strain is there. And how would it happen?
By the potential of the virus in constant contact with its human hosts. If the human host has a weak constitution and has other viruses, the virus would adapt and cause a "morphing" in the genetic pool. The reason why other countries tried to contain the virus is it wants to avoid such mixing of genetic material from this virus to the next to avoid a contagious situation, similar to the 1918-1920 Spanish flu global pandemic which killed 600 million people.
Here in the Philippines, the DOH must probably consult with the US Center on Disease Control and Prevention. It seems that DOH really don't know what to do anymore. And with classes opening tomorrow, the chances of this virus spreading faster and wider remains high.
Government should probably suspend the opening of classes tomorrow and instead, announce opening in July. THat would allow DoH and the DECS to ensure that schools and their medical teams are well-prepared for possible new community outbreaks in other places, like Metro Manila. DoH should not be too complacent about this virus.
You mistakenly wrote:
ReplyDelete"The reason why other countries tried to contain the virus is it wants to avoid such mixing of genetic material from this virus to the next to avoid a contagious situation, similar to the 1918-1920 Spanish flu global pandemic which killed 600 million people."
No, the reason other countries tried to contain the spread was to 1. to "buy time" for preparing for eventual and inevitable widespread community transmission, and to try to reduce the numbers of people sick at any one time, so that health care systems could function better.
Many countries did, misleadingly, imply that they could "stop" the spread. The word "containment" itself implies that. But it is not stoppable, as WHO Director General Margaret Chan has said. That is what "pandemic influenza" viruses do: they spread.
The 1918 Spanish Flu is believed to have killed between 50 and 100 million people. Ghastly -- but much lower than 600 million.
And lastly, the flu virus can mutate regardless of whether it is infecting people who are weak and sick, or people who are healthy.
The 1957 pandemic was relatively mild. The 1968 pandemic was even milder. The only ghastly flu pandemic in the last 100 years was 1918.
There is no way RP could stop the flu from eventually circulating everywhere in RP. Same with every other country -- except perhaps some island nation somewhere, but even that is unlikely. In 1918, only some very isolated villages and one island that I know of kept influenza out.
Many governments have set themselves up for blame by implying that "containment" meant "stopping" or "keeping out" the flu.
They should have said from Day One, loudly and repeatedly, that "containment" was a temporary measure to help everyone get ready, and to reduce the speed of spread to reduce burden on health care systems so that patients could get better care.