The class war has already begun.
Mar Roxas, the elite poster boy, is now the anointed successor of another haciendero, President Benigno S. Aquino III. Roxas has accepted the challenge posed by people behind him during their event today at Club Filipino.
Meanwhile several kilometers away and we see Senator Grace Poe intently listening to the live broadcast over the radio of Roxas' "anointment". Yesterday, Poe thanked the President for even considering her as a candidate. Now that Pnoy has officially "anointed" Roxas, the political landscape is getting clearer by the minute.
We now have two sure bets for the presidency--Vice president Jejomar Binay and DILG secretary Mar Roxas. Two months from now, and we will hear Senator Grace Poe pronouncing her candidacy alongside her mentor, Senator Chiz Escudero.
Roxas accepted the challenge by Pnoy but who in his right mind, would accept the post of Roxas' running mate? Though some LP members still consider Poe, there are several who are pushing for Cayetano, as vice president.
Cayetano will only be a viable running mate if he carries with him the bulk of the Nacionalista Party. The problem is, Cayetano is not the major party power. The Villars still dominate the party and there are other personalities there with their own bases of power.
The minute Cayetano bolts without bringing with him the bulk of the party, his action will weaken the party. To prevent this from happening, the NP leadership will definitely enter into a coalition or a partnership. However, that is a risk because surely the Liberal party bet is not the strongest candidate in the field. It is easy for the NP to just enter into a partnership yet when they do so, and their risk do not pay off, the NP stands to lose considerable political capital.
This is likewise, the NP's quandary when it comes to the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) and the Poe-Escudero tandem. Poe is a strong candidate--but her chances remain slim, even uncertain. She does not have her own network or machinery. She relies on Escudero's, the bulk of which is linked with the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of Danding Cojuangco.
Unknown to many, the NPC is a powerhouse in the provinces. They maintained a very solid provincial network which is the envy of both the Liberals and the Nacionalistas. The only thing is, this network has since splintered into different groups, one went to the Estrada camp and the other to different other political aggrupations when Escudero abandoned his presidential candidacy in 2010. I think the very reason why Escudero has not announced as of yet is the fact that Escudero's men are still regrouping their forces.
Poe will only be a strong and major political force if the camp of former president Joseph Estrada joins her with Escudero. Estrada's machinery remains formidable, the former president's political influence remains strong. The only thing that is preventing Estrada from sealing a deal with Poe is the fear that those who backs her are the same ones who orchestrated his ouster last 2001.