Post-Revolutionary Scenario: 48 Hours

48 Hours

Immediately after the seizure of power, the revolutionary forces should secure all vital installations of the State. A revolutionary spokesman should announce on television, the state of the nation's affairs and the short-term plans of the revolution. While these are on-going, a representative of the movement should be communicating with different foreign emissaries, assuring them that peace and order will be restored within 48 hours.

After this, revolutionary forces should arrest and detain all known anti-revolutionary forces. Leaders of these forces should be neutralized immediately, either through detention or if they resist, through execution. The Center of power should be beefed up with APC's and tanks.

The Council of State should be immediately established and shown on television, so that people will be assured and calmed at the same time. They should be protected at all costs by the revolutionary forces.

The structure of the Council of State should be composed of sympathetic and enlightened members of the revolutionary movement, specialists on their own respective fields. There should be at least twelve specialists involved in the Council of State.

Council member in Political Affairs---he will handle all local government units. Anti-revolutionary local executives should be replaced immediately and thrown into detention. Others will be allowed to administer the LGU.

Council in Foreign Affairs--he will represent the State before foreign dignitaries. He will also administer various consulates and ambassadorial posts abroad. He will handle DFA.

Council on Labor and Employment--he will represent the State before capitalists and labor groups and inform them on the goals of the revolution.

Council on Defense--he will serve as the head of all members of the NAFP and NPNP. He will undertake all campaigns against all anti-revolutionary forces.

Council on Economic Growth and Development--he will handle DTI and its subsidiaries, and serve as the representative of the State before big capitalists and foreign investors.

Council on Finance---he will handle the finance department and the Central Bank and ensure the continued operation of the stock and money markets as well as ensure the stability of all government financial assets.

Council on Education--he will handle DECS and ensure the continued operation of all educational units and ensure that all classes continue.

Council on Technology--he will handle all tech and communications facilities and units

The Dark Night of Our Souls

Martyrs, they say, undergo a phase of doubt in their lives. Before they become holymen, they first suffer a phase of the severest temptation. This phase is called the dark night of their souls.

Our soldiers right now are faced with the same dilemma. Should they continue to serve an illegitimate president or serve the People, the rightful Power of the Nation? Should they blindly follow the "chain of command" though it continues and proves to be immoral, corrupt and bereft of moral authority to govern? Should they stain their hands with blood of their brothers just to satiate the lust of a few hawks in the corridors of power?

Such a dilemma exists. For one, soldiers are common people. They feel what the people feel. They suffer what the people are continually suffering. Day to day, soldiers worry about their poor, impoverished families. They sacrifice their lives, but for what? To support an illegitimate president and an immoral war? Is their sacrifice worthy enough?

Now is the time for soldiers to ponder their present state of affairs. Now's the moment for them to pray hard and decide. They must choose between being blind followers of evil men. Or, be martyrs and fight these evil men that lurks in the corridors of power.

O enlightened soldiers of the Filipino People! Seize your destinies! Now is the time to make history.

God Save the Queen Part Two

New Army Chief Gen. Alex Yano warns of drastic measures should soldiers join the swelling ranks of dissenters in the AFP. Yano says that most of the soldiers remain loyal to the chain of command.

I don't believe it.

Yano is speaking from his nostrils. For the past few days, two generals have spoken about the coup. They said that its an "alleged coup", but their body languages and pronouncements say otherwise. These generals want to allay growing "fears" on this coup. However, they are doing a disservice. If these things are just "rumours", then, why are they reacting like that? They are saber-rattling. Their perceived "enemies" are silent. They are nowhere to be found.

Let me make this straight. First, the business community is not saying anything bad about these rumours. In fact, businessmen don't care. As I've said in previous blogs, the Philippine economy is strong enough against any political turmoil. It will not be affected by any change in political administration. It has been insulated from politics.

Second, the enemies of this administration lurks inside the palace. If there would be a coup, it would be instigated by GMA's own minions. It would be Ebdane and possibly Esperon who will lead the charge. Notice how GMA's camp immediately replaced Ebdane as Defense secretary and how GMA placed Reyes in the Energy portfolio. These actions bespeak of distrust or mistrust of the FVR camp. If there would be a coup, it would be God Save the Queen part two.

Possible scenario:

(1) Mass resignation of soldiers in Mindanao.
(2) Promulgation of Sandiganbayan decision leading to mass revolt by civil groups and Erap sympathizers.
(3) Call of Congress to other sectors to support destab moves
(4) State defends itself; possible outbreak of hostilities.
(5) Anti-GMA forces succeeds in entering the palace. First Family goes to exile.
(6) Establishment of civilian-military revolutionary government.

New Update:

The arrest of CPP Founder Jose Maria Sison due to trumped up charges has doomed peace talks with the rebels. Possible effects would be escalation of armed confrontations between AFP and CPP-NPA. This development is worse than the Mindanao conflict.

For the next three years, peace will elude this administration. MILF said that they will not enter into a peace agreement with the government. It will only do so if the GRP accedes to ceding some territory to the rebels. Meanwhile, MNLF will definitely not enter into any pact for as long as GMA is there in the palace. The arrest of Sison dooms peace negotiations with the Reds.

In the next few years, GMA will become a war president. These wars in the North and the South will put a heavy strain in the economy.

To prevent the country from going down the drain, members of the elite will allow extra-constitutional measures to replace this administration with a caretaker government. One model is Thailand. The possibility of having a government like that of Thailand in the Philippines is very strong.


Army chief warns ‘drastic action’ vs troops in alleged coup
By Joel Guinto
INQUIRER.net
Last updated 02:13pm (Mla time) 08/28/2007
MANILA, Philippines -- The new commanding general of the Philippine Army has vowed to take "drastic action" against troops who would break away amid rumors of a fresh plot to topple the government, saying such action is "non-negotiable."

Lieutenant General Alexander Yano acknowledged that the verdict on deposed president Joseph Estrada, the revival of the wiretapping scandal linking President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to cheating in the May 2004 elections, and the heavy losses suffered by the military in recent encounters with the Abu Sayyaf could be "exploited" by certain groups to rally the troops against the government.

"It's non-negotiable. There are certain provisions against that in the military justice [system]. That is a violation and we have to take drastic action. Wala na tayong usapan dun [We have nothing to talk about]," Yano told reporters Tuesday, when asked what he would do to would-be coup plotters among the ranks.

Yano said there was "no serious report" on alleged efforts to unseat the President but nonetheless acknowledged that "there were political issues that could be exploited by some groups."

"But let me tell you that our troops, including our officers, are professional enough, they know their sword duty, their immediate concern is the fight against insurgency and other threats," he said.

"They continue to follow the chain of commands… They will not follow any efforts from different groups who want to sow chaos," he added.

Last Monday, Major General Ben Dolorfino, Armed Forces National Capital Region (NCRCom) chief, said a "worst-case scenario" if Estrada would be convicted for plunder would be a repeat of the May 1, 2001 siege by Estrada supporters in Malacañang.

The march to the Palace came following Estrada's arrest. He was booted from power in January 2001 when a military-backed popular revolt thrust then vice president Arroyo to power.

The wiretapping controversy, which came to be known as the “Hello Garci” recordings were purported tapes of Arroyo's phone conversations with ex-elections commissioner Virgilio Garcillano over plans to rig the 2004 vote results in her favor, with the help of some military officials.

The alleged cheating operation was one of the issues raised by a group of Army and Marine officers who allegedly plotted to unseat Arroyo in
February 2006. Twenty-eight officers are facing court martial on
mutiny charges over the supposed coup plot.

A New Ideology

Former Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban wrote extensively on JoAl's political theorem. Though JoAl's concept has been there since the 80's, it deserves a review for two reasons: one, it remains relevant and two, it justifies a reiteration.

Our present condition needs immediate solution. The solution is political, not economic. Our economy is stable. It cannot just be totally affected by any moves, whether political or terrorism. Therefore, any change in the present set of administrators will definitely not lead to an economic crash of Argentinian proportions.

JoAl believes in a revolution, led by Caudillos. There must be a change in the socio-political system, JoAl writes because this will correct the age-old problems besetting the nation. This revolution must be led by the soldier who suffers like the common tao. The change, though revolutionary, must not change the economic system. The economic system remains the proposed system. It is the political structure which needs immediate change.

I concur with JoAl's observation. And I fully support a revolution to be lead by our enlightened soldiers.

First stage---- neutralize the weak.
Second stage--create favorable scenarios
Third stage----wait for a dramatis causa
Fourth stage---launch the storm
Fifth stage-----neutralize anti-revolutionary forces
Sixth stage-----Establish councils
Seventh stage---Peace & Order

New Breed of Terrorists in Mindanao--proof of weakness of the Philippines in the global anti-terror campaign

A New Breed of Terrorism in Mindanao: And the Philippine Government is Helpless and remains the weakest link in the Global Anti-Terror campaign

Just like I wrote here at RedBlueThoughts---the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) was behind the recent beheadings of Marines in Basilan. Scour this page and you’ll find that I also wrote that the ASG is the one responsible for the kidnapping of Father Bossi. Yes, all my analyses have been validated. Philippine Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales said that at least 4 Abu Sayyaf terrorists perpetuated the beheadings, contradicting earlier claims by the Basilan vice governor Akbar that the ASG is no longer seen in his province.

ASG more politicized

I’ve been studying this group for a long time. And I believe that they have now evolved into another more deadly form. They have been both politicized and more fanatical (hence fratricidal) now compared some years ago. Why do I say this?

A new Abu Sayyaf

First, I believe that the death of former ASG Chieftain Janjalani ushered in a new form of ASG. With the purported “election” of their Imam as their new leader, the ASG has turned into a more spiritual and therefore, more dangerous entity. What makes them more sinister is the fact that no one knows them anymore. No new intelligence has been published about this new ASG precisely because the government is ashamed that it is losing the fight against terrorism in the country.

Consider this—the Philippines once proclaimed itself as the anti-terror czar in the Asia-Pacific region. With the published “deaths” of key ASG leaders, the Philippine president announced that the ASG is “now running scared and decimated”.

Now, it seems that it was a case of announcing this too soon. The ASG is alive and well. They have kidnapped a priest and caused an incident that would probably turn into war in Basilan.

The Basilan Trap

It was a trap subtly staged by the ASG to foment civil war in Mindanao. ASG leaders have now turned into sophisticated strategists. They know that a war in Mindanao would definitely foment more hatred against the government, and thus, would encourage young Muslims to fight the Kafirs or the Mushrikuns thereby swelling their ranks. During the time of former President Ramos and even at the time of Estrada, the government was able to control their ranks. Now, under the weak leadership of Arroyo, the ASG is beginning to grow once again and flourish.




Lack of Intelligence-sharing

There are some critical intelligence being purposely hidden to the world that would endanger current efforts at countering terrorism in Mindanao. First, the Philippine administration is reluctant to recognize that the ASG is alive and well. Why? Its an embarrassment and obviously would lead to a political scene. Second, the Philippine government tries to appear strong yet, obviously weak and helpless in its fight against terror. Third, it seems that AFP intelligence seems to be getting noise in the ground yet unable to validate them, probably because they lost their embedded “spies”.

Significance of the death of Janjalani

Janjalani signified the old ASG—a ragtag band of ideological misfits formerly military agents. With the group’s alliance with the Jemaah Islamiyah, the ASG has slowly turned into a more spiritual, more mobile and more militant grouping. It silently operates in Mindanao, turning it into a laboratory for bombings, assassinations and military operations. Mindanao, especially Jolo, Basilan and Lanao have been transformed into a huge training camp of ASG fighters under the tutelage of a foreign-trained spiritual leader turned military chieftain. If this government continues to dilly-dally, we might wake up one day and see the ASG as the military backbone of a regional army of militants, wanting to establish a pan-Islamic state.

Weak link in the fight against terror

What’s more, the inability of the Philippine administration to stem the tide of Islamic fundamentalism in the country opens the entire region under the threat of terror. Why? The Philippines is transforming into another Pakistan. In fact, this country has already turned into another Pakistan, yet of the ASEAN kind. The administration is so busy fighting its political wars that it already forgot to beef up its internal security.

If this administration continues to ignore critical intelligence about the ASG, we might find more fighters fighting wars in Thailand, or recruiting Mujaheddins in Malaysia and Indonesia, emanating from Mindanao.

Appeal to the US

The US must step in in Mindanao. Special ops teams must be sent in known ASG lairs and kill these misguided and misbegotten Muslims. True Muslims will definitely support such a move. However, come to think of it, this will just be a mere palliative. It would never really decimate the ASG and their ilk in Mindanao.

What would prevent the spread and growth of terrorism in Mindanao? One possible solution is the establishment of a strong civilian-military government. The US and its allies must support current moves to oust the illegitimate Arroyo administration and replace with a revolutionary government that will not think twice of eradicating these scums from the promised land of Mindanao.

An Era of Reversals: Where are the true soldiers of the people?

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Graft on the Rise

Inquirer reported that graft is on the rise. Why? Because government officials lost all hiya. Since, there is no one to check their excesses and no legitimate opposition to even fight them, they will just plunder our coffers with impunity.

Where is the Magdalo? Where is the ABB? Where are the sparrows? Where are the NPA's? I thought you guys are the self-appointed and annointed saviours of the People.

Start mowing these grafters down. Start sharpening your bolos.

CALLING ALL MAGDALOS, IF THERE ARE ONE. CALLING ALL BAGONG KATIPUNEROS, IF THERE ARE STILL SOME. ARE WE ALL JUST PROPAGANDISTS? WHEN WILL BE THE TIME WHEN WE WILL PUT WHERE OUR MOUTHS ARE.

TIME TO BE GREAT, MY FRIENDS!


‘Big-time graft on the rise’
Watchdog blames gov’t air of secrecy

By Kristine L. Alave
Inquirer
Last updated 02:01am (Mla time) 08/01/2007
MANILA, Philippines -- The shroud of secrecy surrounding high-level government contracts has led to the rise of “grander” and more lucrative corrupt practices in the Arroyo administration, anticorruption crusaders said Tuesday.

But red tape and petty corruption, such as bribery, have decreased because of the anti-red tape executive order issued by Malacañang last year, Vincent Lazatin, executive director of Transparency and Accountability Network (TAN), said.

The executive order reduced transaction fees and trimmed bureaucratic dealings in several frontline agencies.

“Bribery is going down. But the grand or bigger types of corruption are on the rise,” said Segundo Romero, a senior fellow at the Development Academy of the Philippines (DAP), which presented Tuesday corruption prevention studies under its Corruption Prevention Action Project.

The observation tends to support foreign businessmen’s perception of corruption in the country’s public sector.

Asked early this year by the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) to assess the corruption problem in the public sector, the businessmen gave an average score of nine. In the PERC grading system, zero is the best possible score and 10 the worst.

A survey conducted by Social Weather Stations from March 4 to May 11 also found that the scale of corruption in the government remained high.

Lazatin said it was becoming more difficult for watchdog groups to get information and gain access to documents in the Arroyo administration.

“It’s much, much harder. I think there is a decrease in transparency and good governance,” Lazatin said in an interview at the DAP presentation.

Departments in the Arroyo administration have been stingy about releasing documents and information of public interest, he said.

Contracts with Japan, China

Lazatin cited the government’s refusal to disclose the documents and papers on the controversial Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement and the more recent $330-million broadband contract between the Philippine government and the Chinese telecommunication firm, ZTE Corp.

It’s also harder to obtain statements of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALN) of government officials and politicians, and some agencies have resorted to dilatory tactics, Lazatin said.

Lazatin’s group has asked the Office of the Ombudsman to release the SALN of Commission on Elections Chair Benjamin Abalos Sr. but the agency still has not acted on the request despite several calls, he said.

Lazatin and Romero said the atmosphere of confidentiality was breeding bigger types of corruption, such as kleptocracy, plunder and cronyism.

All the secrecy gives high-level government officials more chances to funnel wealth from the public coffers and undermines efforts at the bureaucratic level to eradicate corruption, Lazatin said.

‘Mother of all corruption’

Romero noted that the May elections also contributed to the rise of the more lucrative corruption practices.

“Elections are the mother of all corruption. You have guns, goons and gold. And ‘Hello Garci,”’ Romero said, the last referring to the taped conversations between Ms Arroyo and former Election Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano supposedly to rig the 2004 presidential election.

The studies presented in the first batch of the DAP anticorruption course focused on the “glitches” in the system.

These problems may be small and “undramatic,” but if accumulated over time, these little things translate to tremendous losses for the government, officials said.

Romero said the 12 studies on various flaws made by the students -- all career officials at several agencies -- would be implemented in their respective departments.

In a study by Eden Caluya, it was revealed that the Department of Public Works and Highways was losing millions of pesos on car rentals for foreign-funded infrastructure projects.

High-end vehicles

Because foreign-funded works are exempt from the cap set by the Department of Budget and Management and there is no clear departmental guideline on car rentals, it has become a practice in the DPWH to rent high-end vehicles instead of the cheaper and more appropriate pickup trucks for construction projects, Caluya said.

“Elimination of corruption vulnerabilities even in the smallest activities should be addressed and not taken for granted because these small areas, with their rate of recurrence, can make a big difference and/or create a great impact,” Caluya said.

Bureau of Customs

Another study at the Bureau of Customs (BOC) demanded changes in the control procedures and inventory of accountable forms.

Marinel Nario, the BOC employee who made the study, noted that such forms were overlooked and that there were “significant weaknesses” in the requisition, issuance, reporting and monitoring of the forms, which are collected for the BOC’s financial statements.

As a result, there is “wastage and inefficient use of government funds.”

The lack of controls can also lead to the unauthorized use of the forms, Nario said.

Why Filipinos feel poor despite an era of plenty

Read the survey below. It shows that 77% of Filipinos perceive themselves as poor. 46 percent of Pinoys said their situation is worse. Only 6 percent of Pinoy said their livelihood was better than last year.

Obviously, this is a far cry from the Philippines the President pictured during her last SONA. What Arroyo told the patronizing crowd in Congress was a country pushing forward with democracy and economic growth.

It seems that most of us consider her speech as bull.

But, if we are to be objective about it, the economy is indeed, stable and growing. Compared to previous years, our economy right now is really on the rise. Foreign companies are entering the country in droves. They see a lot of potential in our economy. They are investing heavily. Thousands of Foreigners are arriving in the Philippines to see its splendour.

What surprises me is that Pinoys themselves don't see the potential of their own country. They still see themselves oppressed, destitute and poor. Why?

I think this survey shows one thing---there's a communicative disjunct between what is really happening in the macro level with that of the micro level. Truly, our macro economic fundamentals are definitely strong, stronger than other ASEAN countries. And contrary to what detractors say, the economic windfall is trickling down to the lower economy. That is pretty obvious. But, why do Filipinos still consider themselves as poor?

The answer lies in Filipino aspirational values. For Filipinos, being poor means just having three square meals a day and not having the extra money to buy the aspirational things like jewelry, new clothes, etc. For us, this is the definition of being poor. In other countries, being poor means not having the means to even eat 3 square meals a day. That is poor. Here, being poor means not having the means to buy the things others have, like cars, new clothes, etc.

So, this survey does not really reflect the true economic status of Filipinos. It is a perception survey. Its different when people perceive themselves as poor when in reality, they are really not poor.

Solving the communicative disjunct

Admit it, the reason why we think ourselves as poor because we are disillusioned. We have low morale and low self-esteem. Why? We see government officials in their flashy cars and sparkling gems and we compare our lot and immediately say we are poor. Why? Because unlike these wealthy people, most of us do not have the means to "keep up with them". This is a race. And in this race, these people have the advantage because they are in power and politics and they can ascend the social ladder easily compared with a lowly private employee.

And since we can't keep ourselves in the race, we see our poverty.

We must have a social revolution. A revolution that would once again put the embers of self-respect in our hearts. We must be once again, be proud of ourselves as Pinoys. The first EDSA did it for us. That event gave us the chance to be proud as Filipinos. What makes us proud? Because we were able to retrieve our "hiya". We, as a people, are honest people. We like to live in an equitable society. A society of meritocracy and promoting fair play. Pre-EDSA situation was not like that. That's why when we revolted and successfully ousted a strongman, we regained our hiya. That gave us reason to be proud of ourselves, because we were able to rise up to the moral challenge.

Now that we are living in a government under an illegitimate ruler, we again lost our hiya. We think ourselves as poor because we are helpless and powerless against this illegitimate leader. We know she cheated. We know her minions rob us of our hard-earned taxes, and because we are unable to fight them and oust them from power, we feel as if we are poor.

We will only regain our self-respect and our hiya when we again rise up as one nation and oust this proud pretender from her seat of power. When that time comes, we will think ourselves as a rich people.

__________________


IBON: Majority of Pinoys say they are poor

Majority of Filipinos see themselves as poor despite government claims of significant improvement in the country's economy, independent think tank IBON Foundation said Wednesday.

According to the July 2-13 IBON quarterly survey, 76.8 percent of Filipinos see themselves as poor, up from 69.3 percent in the same period last year. The survey was conducted nationwide with 1,488 respondents, the foundation said.

A total of 64.4 percent of respondents said their income was enough for their needs while 34 percent said it was not enough, IBON said. Only 46.8 percent of respondents said their livelihood was the same compared to a year ago while 46 percent said it was worse.

Only 5.5 percent said their livelihood was better than last year.

The IBON survey showed that 44.4 percent of respondents said there were livelihood opportunities in their area, but these were not enough, while 32.7 percent said there were none.

A total of 72.45 percent of respondents said they had trouble paying for their electricity and/or water bills; 71.2 percent said they could not meet the costs of medicine and medical treatments; 67.7 percent said they experienced difficulty paying for their children's schooling; 67 percent said they had trouble meeting food prices; and 65.3 percent said they could not meet transportation costs.

The foundation said it conducted the survey to determine the people's perception of the economy, their livelihood and income, government performance, and issues relevant to the country's economic growth.

Rosario Bella Guzman, IBON executive editor, said the result was not surprising "considering that there are still insufficient livelihood opportunities in the country."

The result downplays President Arroyo's claim in her State of the Nation Address (SONA) that the government, through the business services sector, has generated 400,000 jobs.

"The business services sector has become the fastest growing in the economy providing 400,000 jobs compared to 8,000 in 2000. By 2010 the forecast is one million jobs earning $12 billion, the same amount remitted by our overseas Filipinos today," Mrs. Arroyo said in his speech during the opening of the 14th Congress last month.

Mrs. Arroyo also claimed that the government was able to strengthen the economy due to fiscal reforms adopted by her administration, which she admitted were the reasons for her low public approval. "But I would rather be right than popular," she said.