A Clear Gambit

The Erap camp launched a series of rallies yesterday after the Sandiganbayan found the former president guilty of the charge of plunder. The defense team said that the battle is not lost; they would appeal to the special division for a recon. So, they have 15 days to do so starting yesterday.

As we wrote here in this blog, the Erap camp does not have the capability to launch full mass actions against the established administration. This shows one thing: they failed to have solid alliances with legitimate mass groups. Mass groups have not participated in the rallies, nor have they given any statement about Erap's conviction. This proves that despite the popularity of Erap, it remains to be seen whether he still has the charisma to call the people to go to the streets. Obviously, Erap has lost his magic.

Likewise, it shows cracks within the Erap camp. It shows that: Erap does not want to gamble more money to support mass actions; two, Erap is ill-advised and three, there is no solid movement in support of the Free Erap movement.

However, GMA must not rest her laurels, as yet. There is still some threats against her continued stay in power.

What these things mean is that groups against her want Erap's case to end so that they'll start direct actions for her ouster. It shows that there is a silent campaign for her ouster. These groups think that they don't need a dramatis causa to make the ultimate "go".

They are wrong.

Based on data they received from SWS, 66 percent believes that Erap should have been found innocent. If you look closely though, the middle class is divided. Historically, the middle class is the leading force behind any movement for change. Whoever advised Erap to put his complete trust with the C-D or the masa is an idiot. The masa is still disorganized and does not have the means to move. That's an idiotic gambit.

The Middle Class should be organized. They are the missing link.

Groups out to oust Gloria should (1) not wait until 2010 to make a move against GMA. Based on objective assessment of the situation, its time to move now; (2) they should target the emotions of the middle class against GMA and exploit this for their own means; and (3) they should move resolutely and with haste.

I do not believe that Gloria would allow herself to experience the same ones being experienced now with Erap. Bilog ang mundo, that's right. However, how sure are anti-GMA groups that the illegal occupant of Malacanan would really descend from power in 2010? She'll fight tooth and nail to stay in power until 2010. And that's a fact.

So, lest of being accused of sadism, these groups should organize for the final push. Otherwise, they'll remain losers and history judges losers harshly.

A Message for Erap:

For political observers, the one lesson we learned from Erap is this: Leaders must stay strong. If they act weak and idiotic (like Erap), they'll get what weaklings always get---jail time and continuous batterings from their stronger opponents.