The Perfect Storm

A Philippine newspaper reported of an alleged assassination plot against former President Estrada. Obviously, the PNP denied this. I personally feel its hogwash, although I must admit that there are certain things about that report that should be closely studied.

First, its obvious that the Arroyo administration will do everything in its power to thwart any attempts at unseating GMA. This "Perfect Storm" scenario is quite feasible, but I believe it does not include an assassination attempt. Quite possibly, the hawks in the Cabinet would prefer a scenario of continuous destabilization, because, like I wrote in previous blogs here, destabilization further strengthens this regime rather than weaken it. Any group who'll attempt to oust GMA must do it in a blitzkrieg fashion rather than opt for a protracted struggle. A protracted struggle only makes GMA stronger.

Actually, those who want GMA ousted should consider three factors: One, Erap's conviction will not generate an EDSA 3. Erap's throng is not than strong unlike the ones seen in May 2002. Second, the middle class remains divided over the issue. I feel that there is no strong moral reason for the middle class to support Erap. And third, there remains no dramatis causa to speak of, only some noise coming from the media.

Hence, there is a need for an armed event, but this one should be done quickly and decisively. There should be no repeat of the Oakwood incident. If these groups who want change really desire to complete their mission, they must not dilly-dally. These groups must pour everything right there and then. Otherwise, they would surely lose.

Analyzing the present state of forces, those who want to remove GMA from power will definitely lose in this fight. I still believe that GMA is stronger than her enemies and would not be removed even after 2010.

Therefore, I see Erap being convicted and detained in Tanay. I see his supporters offering token resistance, but eventually, will fade away. Yes, Erap is still popular among the masses but this popularity cannot be translated into blind naked action, like what some people manifested for Marcos. Many people, including myself, believe in his innocence. But, it remains to be seen if people would really go out in the streets to rally behind him. I do not see this happening. The Sandiganbayan will convict him but will allow him to post an appeal, which would prolong Erap's agony.

What's wrong with Erap's strategy

Everything. First, he has amateur strategists in his inner circle of advisers. His pr man, Ferdie Ramos, is a total idiot when planning these kinds of actions. Ramos does not know how to create a scenario. He's an exposurist. He's not a strategic pr thinker.

Second, Erap's stance of just waiting for the verdict and telling the people that he's ready to accept whatever fate he'll get from the courts is total kagaguhan. This shows Erap's weak armor. Erap revels in drama. He's still living in fantasy land. Or he still sees himself as portraying the role of the people's champion. Erap, you're playing a really dangerous game. This stance of yours is precisely what led to your ouster. Its good to be popular but its better to be a winner than continue to be a perennial loser.

What Erap should do is lead the people to protest the verdict. If he will not do this, he'll lose very, very badly. Erap should do it not for himself, but for his mother and the millions who continue to see him as their leader. Should Erap do otherwise, he'll again squander the opportunity to be great again.