The Inept Poker Player in a Deceptive Democracy

Doronila's analysis of the current situation in the Philippines is entirely valid (see story below). Its an affirmation of what we wrote here earlier--that the show of force is not directed at possible mass groups supporting Estrada. It was directed at those within the security establishment who have an axe to grind against Arroyo.

However, come to think of it, that's a useless exercise. It was an overreaction and an austentatious display of power, akin to the ones being done by North Korea and other totalitarian states. When Iran was being threatened by the US with armed force, Iran's President ordered his military to display its war machines. Such flexing of muscles connote fear. The main question however, is--to whom was this show of force directed?

To the layman, this flexing of muscles indicate two things: First, there is really a threat against the prevailing order. And second, this state has been totally militarized that the civilian authority relies heavily on armed force to perpetuate itself in power.

If this administration is really secured in power, it does not need to show it. In democratic societies, the state uses negotiations and diplomacy to maintain peace. Obviously the policy of this administration is not peace--its annihilation of their perceived enemies. If you'll not toe the line, you'll be shot, or maimed or at least, arrested without charges. Such is the experience of legitimate advocacy groups. Human rights violations are getting worse because that's the policy of this administration--follow or be killed.

Truly, this administration has transformed the state into a garrison state. This is expected from an illegitimate government. Conversely, this is a good indication for other groups to continue their destabilizing activities because they now know that the people will definitely tolerate any form of government, be it revolutionary, illegitimate or what-have-you, for as long as they are kept in line.

This also shows that democracy is not the form of government the Philippines have today. It's a deceptive democracy, the kind of phenomenon that manifested itself in South American governments.

Curiously though, the United States remain totally neutral and seems unable to show its disgusts over such a government. Historically, we know that the US has traditionally issued comments and negative pronouncements against these types of government. In the case of the Philippines though, the US maintains a supporting stance which contradicts its global "brand" positioning as the champion of democratic ideals.

Useless Exercise

Going back to what Dolorfino did last Friday. If Dolorfino expects the Marines to toe his line, he's totally mistaken. Junior and even senior officers of the elite corps know that he's one of those who fed the Marines to the dogs last July. Also--hindi ba si Dolorfino yung na-kidnap ng mga rebelde at pinakawalan? Why would they obey his orders? Definitely, the Marines would not want to be kidnapped also just like their commandant?

GMA was gravely ill-advised on this move. Probably, GMA lacks enough names in her list who'll doggedly obey the political authority. And if this is correct, then, it bodes ill to her.

Complete Accounting of Forces

Lastly, the show of force only exposed the weakness, not the strength of GMA's military forces. If the Leadership expects its enemies to cower in fear over this, they are gravely mistaken. GMA's enemies would even be thankful to Dolorfino for showing them GMA's forces or the lack of it. This knee-jerk reaction also showed the weakness in Dolorfino's character. You don't show the enemy all your wares early in the game. Dolorfino, obviously, is not a poker player.

And GMA right now needs one.

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ANALYSIS
AFP exaggerating threat of Estrada supporters
By Amando Doronila
Inquirer
Last updated 03:17am (Mla time) 09/03/2007
MANILA, Philippines -- The military is displaying nervousness over the imminent promulgation sometime this month of the Sandiganbayan decision on the plunder case of deposed President Joseph Estrada. It is also trying to rattle the nation by inflating the specter of unrest over a guilty verdict.

From most indications, the nation is not on edge.

But the Armed Forces of the Philippines staged a show of force on Friday in ceremonies at Camp Aguinaldo and Fort Bonifacio to demonstrate the military is ready to cope with any political disturbances that they fear Estrada supporters may mount in reaction to the decision, either conviction or acquittal.

The AFP and the Philippine National Police have been put on alert ahead of the Sandiganbayan decision.

At Camp Aguinaldo, Maj. Gen. Ben Dolorfino, the new Marine commandant, made an ostentatious inspection of close to 1,000 troops of the National Capital Region Command, including helicopters, armored personnel carriers and troop carrier trucks.

At Fort Bonifacio, headquarters of the Marines and hotbed of military unrest since the aborted coup attempt implicating Marine units on Feb. 24-26, 2006, Dolorfino inspected the troops, their armor, as well as their ambulances.

He also tried to crank up the public mood to the state of nervousness of the security forces. He told reporters: “We are now ready for any contingency that may happen. The objective is to maintain peace, order and stability in the NCR.”

Dolorfino said the worst-case scenario could happen, including a repeat of the May 1, 2001, attack on Malacañang by Estrada partisans after he was arrested to stand trial on plunder charges. Estrada is the first Filipino President to be charged with criminal offenses in the courts of justice.

Inflated threat

The arrest enraged Estrada’s supporters, who found it too excessive after he was forced out of office following the collapse of his administration when the AFP withdrew its support.

The military deployments in anticipation of disturbances appear to be out of proportion to the threat of public disorder, and did not reflect public concern over the inflated threat.

They succeeded only in revealing the military high command’s lack of confidence in the solidarity of the security forces and, by implication, the uncertain loyalty of the entire AFP to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Garci tapes scandal

The deployments coincided with the reopening of the Garci tapes scandal in the Senate.

The Senate on Wednesday voted to revive the investigation of the tapes by referring the case to three committees -- the committee on national defense, the blue ribbon committee and the committee on constitutional amendments.

The vote came after Sen. Panfilo Lacson introduced a new testimony by a former military intelligence agent that he and a team of agents of the military intelligence service wiretapped a telephone conversation between Ms Arroyo and former Election Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano purporting to show that she allegedly attempted to tamper with the canvassing of the 2004 election returns.

Reopening old wound

The new investigation will reopen the legitimacy issue that has damaged the Arroyo presidency since 2005.

The reference of the case to the Senate committee on national defense is bound to reopen the sensitive issue of security breaches involving a presidency being spied upon by intelligence agents who are alleged to have eavesdropped not only on presidential telephone conversations but also on those of opposition figures during the 2004 elections.

No signs of unrest

There is no sign that Estrada supporters are restive in anticipation of the Sandiganbayan’s decision, or that they are as outraged as they were when he was arrested.

There is no visible sign that his followers are being mobilized to take street action to protest a guilty decision.

Such a disruption is not expected, but there are fears that the decision could be used by disgruntled groups inside the security forces as a galvanizing issue to foment military unrest over the legitimacy issue on the Arroyo presidency.

Disgruntled groups

Since the collapse of his administration in 2001, Estrada has lost much of his support among former loyalists in the AFP.

The concern lies in that disgruntled groups in the AFP, especially those facing trial on charges related to recent mutinies, would use the Sandiganbayan’s decision to foment further dissatisfaction inside the security forces.

The public appears prepared to take a decision calmly, whatever it is.

SWS survey

A confidential survey conducted by Social Weather Stations in July found that almost half of Filipinos in Metro Manila and neighboring provinces think Ms Arroyo should pardon Estrada if he is found guilty.

Forty-eight percent said “in case the Sandiganbayan declares Erap guilty,” Ms Arroyo should pardon him “immediately.”

Thirty-eight percent said Estrada should be pardoned “after some time,” and 13 percent said no pardon.

According to socioeconomic classes, the survey showed that 47 percent and 58 percent of respondents from classes D and E (the lower classes) wanted Estrada pardoned immediately. This sentiment was shared by 31 percent from classes ABC.

The highest number of respondents who didn’t want Estrada pardoned came from classes ABC, with 17 percent.