Useless Pursuit of Nothing

Some senators just did a Walk for Truth. They did it yesterday, Araw ng Kagitingan. The Senate just filed an appeal before the Supreme Court after the Highest Tribunal castrated their powers on the issue of executive privilege. Reports say its an attempt to regain whatever image the Senate has after that disastrous and highly-political decision.

The question is--so what? Why do quarters insist on this issue when everybody knows that GMA was behind the deal? Why do they need a Neri when everybody knows that he does not have the balls to go against Gloria? For most Filipinos, this probe is finished. The truth has come out. GMA and her ilk are so full of themselves and so into graft and corruption now that even the very stocks of rice are now being manipulated to satiate their greed.

I say to everybody who wants change---move forward. Fight against greed. Fight Gloria in the battlefield where she claims to have succeeded--economic front.

Former US federal reserve chief Alan Greenspan just declared that the US is under recession. And everybody knows what this recession will do to us. This would further worsen our already lamentable economic state.

Food shortages will mark the remainder of GMA's term, as what Joey Salceda announced before the media a few days ago. These artificial shortages will continue because government is still helpless against these big-time rice traders.

However, I would like to commend the National Bureau of Investigation for "inviting" 3 big-time rice traders for questioning in their office. This is a bold move. This is a commendable one. I praise the NBI for making such a move. However, I would want sana to see at least one or two big-time rice trader JAILED immediately since these ones are the real anay of society that we, the people, want punished.

GMA as destabilizer? Threat of Terrorism

After GMA left for Switzerland yesterday, AFP Chief of Staff Esperon, PNP Chief Razon, DOJ Secretary cRaul(o) Gonzales, Defense Secretary Danding Cojuangco, err Secretary pamangkin of the biggest Marcos crony and even InSecurity Adviser Gonzales immediately downgraded the threat alert they have announced a few days ago. The lapdogs said, there's no more threat, no more destabilization.

Hehehe. So, GMA is the destabilizer? For these people, you need to read between the lines.

What these idiots want us to believe--if GMA is here, there's always a threat of destabilization. If GMA is out, there's none. What a way to send a message to their boss.

Seriously, my media colleagues should NOT, I say again, should NOT be a party to the pronouncements of this group of lapdogs. I mean, doing so, we make ourselves a party to their foolishness. These people have no hiya anymore. I mean, if they have at least some semblance of hiya, they would not spread these rumours around like they're gospel truth.

This is what I am saying.

IF THE PHILIPPINES HAVE THESE KINDS OF MILITARY AND SECURITY OFFICIALS, IT SHOWS YOU HOW INEPT THIS GOVERNMENT IS IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM.

FOR THE US, THIS IS MY MESSAGE: YOU SHOULD URGE THE PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT TO REPLACE THESE PEOPLE. WHY? BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CREDIBILITY ANYMORE. WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW? THE PEOPLE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS GOVERNMENT ANYMORE. WHAT IF A LEGITIMATE AND SERIOUS TERRORIST ACTIVITY HAPPENS IN THE PHILIPPINES AND THEY ANNOUNCE IT, THE PEOPLE WILL THINK TWICE OR EVEN THRICE IN BELIEVING THEM. AND IT WOULD AFFECT INTELLIGENCE-GATHERING SINCE INTEL AGENTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING CREDIBLE AND A-1 INFORMATION REGARDING THE INCIDENT.

This is what I am saying. If the US government wants to solve the global terrorist problem and prevent it from spreading and infecting their own country, they should have a strong ally against terror here in the Philippines. Obviously, this is NOT the case here.

Involvement of the Church in the fight for freedom

"Huwag nating palawigin pa ang paghihikahos ng mga mahihirap"--Cardinal Rosales
("Don't prolong the agony of the poor)

Such words coming from the prelate of Manila gives us some things to think about this coming holidays. Cardinal Rosales sure knows what's happening on the ground. However, it puzzles me why the good cardinal still refuses to support moves to oust GMA. Certainly, Rosales knows that the poor's continued struggle against their current state of affairs lies in the ouster of the present government.

However, it pains me to think that Rosales seems to brush off the misgovernance being done by GMA etal. The solution is glaring yet so far from the minds of Rosales. He does'nt want to accept the fact that siding with the poor, especially the Sumilao farmers means giving up his alliance with GMA.

Cardinal, don't be a party to those whom oppresses the poor. Be one with the masses in their struggle against continued oppression.

Conditions are ripe for a coup; JDV stands to lose everything

Manolo may not believe that a coup is imminent but I say again, the conditions which justify a military takeover exist. Compared with 1989, 1990, 2004 and 2006, the present conditions are ripe for a government run by military leaders. It may not be apparent, given that "mutinous" soldiers, as what Manolo wrote in his blog: www.quezon.ph, submitted themselves to the legal processes, nonetheless, the "acts" being shown right now by the United Forces and the rebel detainees bear uncanny, pre-conceived actions.

Today, the officers being tried walked out of their hearing, in defiance with the way they are being treated in the court martial.(see Ellen Tordesillas blog). Legislators who filed an impeachment complaint against Arroyo also walked out of the justice committee hearings. These are, obviously, symbolic acts of defiance which is expected to lead into something more than merely walking out of "illegal" proceedings. It shows that people are manifesting overt acts of dissent. These pockets of resistance do not happen overnight. These are planned actions.

Do I believe that these actions are just "isolated", "autonomous" incidents? No. Do I believe that their actions are in someway connected and coordinated? Yes. The mere fact that these groups operated under the new name "United Forces", says much about the solid desire of the people behind them (especially those financing these actions) to really oust Arroyo.

I do agree with one observation of Manolo though that Arroyo might survive all these events and course smoothly to 2010. This may happen for three (3) reasons: First, groups fail to create conditions necessary for the growth of a critical mass. Doronila is right in saying that there is no critical mass at this point. Yet, we can't discount the possibility that, days or weeks right now, a critical mass might develop. At this point, acts of the United Forces fail to animate the emotions of even the middle classes. What do these things indicate? In a traditional purview, it may mean that people are tired of going and marching to EDSA. As I've said, surveys show that people are quite tired of the constitutional, EDSA way that they would welcome an extra-constitutional means of ousting Arroyo.

Second, rebels fail to court a sizeable number of "recruits" to stage an act of defiance among military ranks. Do we see a repeat of a "We Belong" at the PMA this homecoming? Maybe. Or maybe not. It depends whether there are still idealists within the Academy who have the "balls" so to speak to do what their predecessors did in 1985. Lastly, if traditional politicians decide not to join these actions. Its unfortunate that Senators Escudero and Cayetano continue keeping their silence despite what Philippine Star columnist Willy Esposo described our situation as "pre Civil War" times. Escudero and Cayetano are still "star-struck" so to speak; still overjoyed by their "victories". Or, to make a better description, still in rapture on their success in deceiving the people. Those who speak out now comes from unexpected politicians--Roxas and Pangilinan--who were previously accused of being pro-Arroyo.

Arroyo's fate now depends on how weak or how strong her enemies are at the moment. These groups need a new strategy to oust Arroyo. If they use the old EDSA formula, they may not succeed in what they want. Worst, they may lose momentum because their ranks remain weak.

If these groups procrastinate and fail to seize the moment, they may yet see a stronger GMA emerging from the seige unscathed. A stronger GMA might not entertain the idea of giving up power come 2010. This is a very strong possibility given the posturings being shown by Arroyo and the acts being done by her allies especially in Congress and in the business community.

If this happens, I say to the soldiers detained there in Tanay--kiss your liberties goodbye. I also say these to the groups opposing GMA--be prepared to lose a sizeable chunk of your constituencies and prepared to be dispensable, powerless, and irrelevant groups next year until 2010.

JDV is the loser

As I wrote in previous entries, the clear loser of all of these is JDV. JDV stands to lose everything not because of his son but because of his own wrongdoing. He remains a fool, compromising his strong position and continuing to support his enemy. Look at what he did today at the WBC convention. The video of ABS-CBN says it all--JDV sat miles apart GMA. Yet, when the media interviewed him, he told them the say trapo way of courtsying GMA. What a dumb move. GMA's allies are attacking him left and right, her operators slowly destroying him in Congress, yet, JDV remains unresponsive. JDV is certain to lose the speakership. And this is NOT a ruse. Events have shown that actions are being taken to isolate and weaken JDV. If JDV does not act now, he will surely lose the speakership to Fuentebella, a known Danding crony.

Winners

I say again, JDV is out. If reports are true that the reason why the tripartite groups of GMA, FVR and JDV agreed to keep their coalition intact was the promise of GMA to assist FVR and JDV to a transition from presidential to parliamentary, the two elders should be ready to lose their shirts. GMA does not have the will to court widespread revolt if she tries this. I say this again, GMA is not ready to rock the boat further by forcing the parliamentary proposition to the people. It would be foolhardy for the two Pangalatoks to trust GMA to do this. The obvious winners now, in 2010 and even in post-2010 will surely be Kampi, GMA and FG. Mark my word.

Gloria to give rice to poor

As what I wrote her, indeed, Gloria is prepared to bribe 85 million Filipinos. She did this today--by releasing 100 million pesos worth of rice to be distributed to all of us, 85 million. That's 3.7 million kilos of rice, if we are to use 27/kilos. So, for this amount, 100 million pesos, only 3.7 million Filipinos will benefit for a day only.

To feed everybody for at least a month, you need 45.9 billion pesos for a month or 550.8 billion pesos a year. Does Gloria have that amount? Yes.

Is this the way Gloria intends to erase all our hatred or paninibugho against her? Bribing us with rice. I remember what Marcos did during his time. This is the same shit that a former dictator did to appease the anger and hunger of the people. Will this work? I seriously doubt it.

The only thing that Gloria must do is resign. Admit defeat. Admit that you're incapable of governance. Resign now.

Gloria can't seem to get it

Yesterday, Gloria Arroyo lambasted her critics for plunging the country into post-election instability. She vowed to stay until 2010, guiding and leading what she said as the "ship of state" with a "steady hand". Obviously, her statement was an attempt to counter a Time magazine article which described her government as a government "under siege."

Deflection

Arroyo's statement is a classic example of how her government tries to vainly solve a continuing crisis by always deflecting the issues and blaming others for the things that the government did. For example, who created the ZTE mess? This anomalous deal was never initiated and never concocted by the anti-Arroyo groups. It was purely a concoction of the enterpreneurial minds of her people. And what about the bribery which happened right inside the palace? Was it, again, a "spin" made by the Anti-Arroyos? No. Her close political adviser, Ronnie Puno, was the one who made those classic buyouts.

Is Arroyo prepared to bribe 85 million pinoys?

She said in her statement that she'll solve the political crisis threatening to end her regime. How? By offering millions of pesos more to her critics, supporters and would-be critics? Is Arroyo prepared to "buyout" 85 million Filipinos, especially the 11 million Filipinos living in sub-human and extreme poverty? How about the 45 million Pinoys who think that they are poor? Is Arroyo prepared to buy their loyalties out in exchange for power until 2010?

Arroyo is misled

I think Arroyo is being misled to think that she is governing this administration in the right way. She and her advisers are always saying that they're the ones responsible for the growth of the economy. Are they kidding? They, themselves, say that the only thing that keeps this country afloat is the billions of dollars worth of overseas remittances. There are, however, real concrete gains in economic development. Yet, these developments, I repeat, are natural consequences of regional economic growth.

Peso is strong because US economy is weak

The peso remains strong because the US economy remains weak and the dollar trades so low against other currencies due to the continuing housing loan problems. The Philippine economy continues to strengthen not because of government intervention. As I wrote in previous entries, the economy grew independently of politics. It has been insulated. That's why I always write here that whatever form of government the people decides to install in exchange of Arroyo's will always succeed because it will never affect the way we do business or it will not stop the flow of foreign investments in the country.

Arroyo--a threat to democracy and economic stability

Arroyo's continued stay in power actually remains a threat to the continued economic growth and stability of this country. Why? Because (1) foreign investors will think twice in entering into government contracts because of the consequences of the ZTE mess. Second, there will always be political instability because issues hounding her have achieved a new level of vigour--that of graft and corruption. The legitimacy issue has never been so life threatening to Arroyo because of the Filipinos' penchant for letting things go. However, bribery and corruption issues are totally different things. It affects moral sensitivities which Arroyo would find very hard to counter. She may be an illegimate leader or an election cheat. That's okey. But, if she is now being portrayed as a cheater, a liar and worst, a briber, then, Filipino moral sensitivities are sure to be pricked quite quickly.

Why?

For Filipinos, bribery and graft and corruption reflect social inequities in graphic fashion. Filipinos can always accept sub-human working conditions, human rights violations here and there, low wages, etc. for as long as they feel that there is an equitable system working for them. Filipinos have this sense of wanting to achieve something. For example, Filipinos will rationalize that the reason why they have'nt been promoted could be due to some factors, which are mostly, about them (attitudes, etc.).

However, if Filipinos realize that the real reason why they remain poor, working for low wages, etc. is due to the system, then, it's time for them to militate against this system.

Quick People Pulse

Based on surveys, Filipinos have this collective feeling that there's terribly wrong with the system because of the way it is being governed. There are enough laws, the people say, for the country to be "great again". However, mismanagement seems to be the reason for all their miseries. What's worst, the inability and the inadequacy of the leadership to manage are being solved at the level of transactional politics. This government, the people think, is not solving the core problem of mismanagement. In fact, it made attempts at solving the issue through bribery, which the people found to be despicable.

Lack of trust affects governance

This extreme lack of trust by the people of their government threatens democracy because it fosters widespread dissent. There is an underground reservoir of dissent waiting for a spark to explode. Since this government feels and sees itself being threatened daily with instability, it will always be under siege. And in times of seige, there's nothing more honorable than hoisting the white flag.

Open Letter to FVR

Dear Mr. President:

I am writing this letter because me and my family cannot seem to understand why you and your pangalatok buddy, JDV, decided to patch things up with Mrs. Arroyo. After making us excited when you spoke out against Arroyo, everybody felt that you’re suddenly regaining your old self, that principled man whom everybody loved back then in 86. Now, with this publicized “kiss and make up” picture with Arroyo, everybody now thinks that you’re just for show.

Yes, Mr. President. I am one among thousands who admired you. During your time, we experienced a brief moment of security and prosperity. You governed with honesty, with integrity, with vision and with passion. You made us feel proud again of being Filipinos. During your tenure, we had an efficient government. It was not without its problems, we know. Compared with Erap’s and now, with Arroyo’s, yours had the promise of being considered great by history.

Now, you with your signature thumbs-up sign are beginning to bore us. You and your posturings of being a statesman are starting to annoy us. You and your travels are signs that everything about you now is just that, a show. Admit it, you are just a shadow of your old self. And it’s surprising that you and your close advisers have chosen the path least taken— that of siding with the enemy of the people.

Were you ill-advised? Were you gullible? Are you now senile? Are you now blind, Mr. President? Or, have you lost your heart? You know what’s happening. You know how this administration continues to plunder the public coffers. You know how Arroyo continues to inflict harm upon us, your people.

Mr. Ramos, you are nowhere near the quality of your mentor, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew. You are not made of the stuff Mr. Lee is made of. It is quite unfortunate because Mr. Lee did not make a career out of the military, but you did. By condoning the sins of Mrs. Arroyo, you now partake of the dirty food she’s used to eat for more than six years now.

Mr. President, are you not ashamed of what you did? You’re supposed to be the leader of your generation. You’re supposed to be the model citizen of your generation. Now, what legacy would you leave for your grandchildren and your children’s children? What things will you now claim to bequeath us, your people? That we are supposed to side with the grafters, the corrupt people of our lifetime? That we’re supposed to forgive those who rob us of our monies, of our liberties, of our futures? Are we supposed to give our thumbs-up to those who kill principled people, to those who squander our hard-earned monies and give to those devils in Congress?

Mr. President, you have little time left. You’re what, seventy plus years old? Why did you decide to smear your clean record by continuing to side with Arroyo? Be cursed, Mr. Ramos. Cursed be the land you stand on.

Sincerely,

The Crumbling Bastille

I wrote here two nights ago that the political situation has been muddled by the pardon of Erap. My presumption is we cannot really say where Erap's loyalties are. However, his statement below says much about his present stand--he's backing away from calls for Arroyo to quit. This is expected of him, since, Estrada is really not much of a strategist. If we are to review his credentials, he's (1) a media creation and (2) he does'nt have the vision. Likewise, Estrada, like Arroyo, are flanked by bumbling idiots. Obviously, this statement says much of the quality of people he likes to be surrounded with.

If I am Erap, I would distance myself from all these people and just keep silent. He does'nt know the real situation. He does'nt realize the impact of his statements, one for those who allied with him during his incarceration and two for the millions who still idolize him. Releasing these kinds of statements harm him because SHOULD THE ANTI-GMA FORCES SUCCEED, HE MIGHT FIND HIMSELF IN JAIL AGAIN.

I think Erap was advised to issue these kinds of statement in reaction to the statement by former FVR that his release was a "calamity". Erap considers FVR his enemy and by siding with Arroyo, he thinks that he can save himself from the clutches of FVR. He's wrong.

My proposal to Erap is this--quit now while you're still free. Do not frustrate or serve as a stumbling block in all these efforts at ousting Arroyo. You don't have a full grasp of political reality.

Net of discussion--do not side with the crumbling Bastille. You might find yourself incarceration yet again. And this time, you might find yourself sharing a cell with his benefactor.

Estrada backs away from Arroyo-quit call
Rejects bid to set up transition government

By Jocelyn Uy
Inquirer
Last updated 02:52am (Mla time) 10/29/2007
Most Read
MANILA, Philippines -- Former President Joseph Estrada Sunday distanced himself from fresh calls for the resignation of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo sparked by the pardon she had granted the disgraced leader convicted of plunder.

“It’s the people -- the poor sector which is the largest part of our society who should choose and decide who they want to run or replace the government, not the few elitists and the churchmen,” Estrada told the Philippine Daily Inquirer, parent company of INQUIRER.net, by phone.

On Friday, the ousted leader was given a new lease on life and walked out of his sprawling Tanay, Rizal, vacation house, where he had spent most of the six years he had been under house arrest, a free man after accepting executive clemency.

The pardon, which both the Estrada and Arroyo camps cited as a step toward national reconciliation, has triggered calls among civil society groups and political and church leaders for the removal of the President and the setting up of a junta to be headed by Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno.

A Puno-led transition government also does not appeal to Estrada, who said that the nation would only tumble into the same pitfalls of the military-backed uprising in 2001 that “unconstitutionally” removed him from power.

Estrada noted that it was Puno who “invented” his constructive resignation, an act that violated his constitutional rights as the then President.

“Haven’t they learned from their mistakes during the Edsa Dos? Our country has gone from bad to worse [since then]. I don’t believe that these elitists and church leaders should decide the fate of our country. It’s the majority who should have a say now,” he stressed, strongly indicating his aversion to another people power.

No deal

But he reiterated that there were no strings attached or an agreement forged between him and the administration in his acceptance of executive clemency.

“There was no deal. I thanked her last Friday because it is the right thing to do as our Filipino values dictate,” he explained.

Speaking like the true “father of the masses” his supporters hold him up to be, Estrada pointed out that the elite should never dictate to the poor Filipinos who have been helping sustain the government through their dollar remittances from abroad.

‘Hello Garci’

Estrada himself had called for the resignation of Ms Arroyo at the height of last year’s “Hello Garci” controversy which suggested that she rigged the 2004 presidential elections. She has denied any wrongdoing.

Like former President Corazon Aquino, Estrada had clamored for a transition government to replace the Arroyo administration and establish a system of governance designed for systematic changes and radical reforms to ensure lasting solutions to poverty and corruption that have tormented the nation.

He had even expressed a willingness to lead the transition government while it was looking for a permanent replacement.

Not seeking public office

The 70-year-old Estrada Sunday repeated his earlier statement that he would no longer run for any government office and would rather spend his remaining years in the “full service” of the poor.

But when asked if he would entertain thoughts of entering politics again in the future, he replied, “It’s up to the people to decide.”

He also expressed no inclination in joining the National Anti-Poverty Commission, saying that his attention was more focused on linking up with nongovernment organizations to pursue his pro-poor programs.

Among the projects he cited was the “white revolution,” which he had initiated as then senator by authoring the Philippine Carabao Act to propagate the animal to ensure more production of quality milk for farmers and poor schoolchildren.

He mentioned visiting the first carabao center in the Science City of Muñoz in Nueva Ecija province, which he planned to replicate in the Visayas and Mindanao with the help of former Sen. Leticia Shahani.

“The government now has competent people in the antipoverty commission. Now, I would like more to work with the private sector,” said Estrada, who had spent his first Sunday as a free man with his grandchildren.

Strategic Masterstroke

Arroyo made a masterstroke when she pardoned Erap--it removed a major force in their ranks and effectively divided them. However, the situation is not hopeless. Erap can still undermine Arroyo. I mean, Erap can still regain whatever credibility he has with the people by just one strong statement of withdrawal of support from her. That would be sweet justice should Erap do this. Anyway, the papers have been signed and there's nothing really that Arroyo can do at this time about it. She can't file another case against Erap. The question that everybody is asking is--why is Erap seem so fearful of Arroyo?

Could it be that he was threatened by Arroyo of perdition should he not sign the pardon? Could it be that Erap is really not interested with politics anymore? Could it be that Erap has "learned his lesson" and that he knows for a fact that his force is just a "mirage"?

The political situation is still fuzzy at the moment. Nobody can really say where all of these things are headed. One thing is sure though--Erap and Arroyo have cancelled themselves out. They have one common enemy=FVR. It remains to be seen whether FVR still have the force to ram against them. I believe at this time, the accounting of forces have already been made and both camps know their true strength. The question is--will we see a change of government this November?

Observation on the online petition

Based on a reading of the People's Pulse, this online petition will amount to nothing. The people does'nt want a snap elections. Its a waste of time and money. What they support though, is a caretaker government. The concept of a caretaker government seems to resonate loudly among the people and I believe that should this happen, it will be supported by the people.

The caretaker government should rule this country until 2010. By that time, everything would have calmed down and a new constitution would have been in place. That's the way to go. The only question is--are these forces really determined to go all out against Arroyo? We will see in the coming weeks.

Shock Treatment

A major confrontation is expected between the forces of Good (anti-GMA, anti-bribery probe) versus the forces of Evil (pro-bribery and pro-GMA) in the first week of November. November may be the darkest days of this administration because at that time (a) the Senate probe would have ended and (b) Congress is expected to reconvene after the holidays. Some say the long holiday (from 29 October to 2 November 2007) would be used by the enemies of Mrs. Arroyo to launch something against her.

It is also evident that both forces (GMA and anti-GMA) have finished an accounting of forces and both parties know their individual strengths and weaknesses. The lines have been drawn and expect a full confrontation starting November. There are certain questions that need to be answered, which I will lay down one by one:

1. Is a civil war possible? Under the circumstances, yes. A civil war is definitely possible if GMA clings to power tenaciously. If the current talks between the GMA and anti-GMA forces fail, chances are GMA might be the first president who brought us civil strife. Should it happen, it would only take about a week.

2. Is ouster of GMA likely? Yes. This bribery issue already broke the camel's back. The effects is irreversible. There is no solution viable enough to appease the soldiers nor the masses. It is a dead end. JDV's call for Mrs. Arroyo to overhaul the administration is a futile call. The only solution is the total eradication of this administration. No amount of damage control can be done to arrest this.

3. Will we have another EDSA? Maybe not this time. This time I think, will be totally different. It would be a purely military coup. The model is Thailand.

4. Will we have democracy after this? Yes. It is the strategic interests of the US and other countries to maintain democracy in the Philippines. A civilian-military revolutionary government is viable under a democratic setup. Businesses will not be touched. Civil liberties will not be violated. However, measures against counter-revolutionaries and the forces of the First Family will be the first to go under this government.

5. Will exile be the preferred exit of the 1st Family? Should the first family decline the offer of an emissary of the anti-GMA forces which will be delivered personally to the palace before November, GMA and the First Gentleman will spend their xmas in jail.

Jueteng Money to innoculate GMA--Money Trail

A source from Malacanang said that the monies given to governors and congressmen (more than 500 million) came from jueteng money. I could'nt believe it at first but after Department of Budget and Management Secretary Andaya denied that these monies came from the government treasury, I thought that this thing could be possible. Remember that classic video grab where these government officials came out of the palace flanking Manny Pacquiao, who was at the back of Manny and trailing both GMA and JDV? You guessed right--its Chavit Singson. And you know that Singson would say that the reason why he was there was he's Manny's link to the palace right? Well, there's more to that Singson visit to the palace than welcoming a boxer.

Who would give such a huge amount that palace factotums like Tonypet Albano and Poblador can just give "just like that."? Well, it could be jueteng money. It could have been given by a losing Kapampangan for governor, or a big-time Batangas jueteng lord cum kingpin or a Bicol-based silent operator?

Another wagging tongue shared this view--probably the monies came from the secret bank accounts of the Arroyos in the Swiss Alps. Remember that the First Golfer, err, First Gentleman went to Zurich during the height of the ZTE probe, right? If FG can go on a trip, ride an airplane, then he's as healthy as a bull to attend the ZTE Senate probe, yes? No, says his doctor. The stress might kill FG. But, he can ride an airplane, go to the banks with his alleged girl friend for what? FG's trip to Germany should be investigated thoroughly.

Or, it could be ZTE money, withdrawn by FG from abroad? Remember that ZTE allegedly gave 50 Million US dollars as "advanced money" to Abalos and his gang. That's 2.2 billion pesos! That's just a fraction of the spoils given to these rapacious government officials.

Those monies cannot be government money, because if it is, it should have a paper trail, right? Wrong. The president, says another source, can get 500 million from her intelligence funds, which are discretionary funds. Well, the Senate should check on this enormous power of the purse by the president. Because if she can do that, with just a verbal order, she can dispense half a billion pesos, then, she's the wealthiest single banker this country ever had.

There's more to this than meets the eye

If we have that big an amount to just give to our government officials "recklessly and apparently in wanton fashion", then, we should investigate this. I am appalled by the reaction our distinguished Senators and government officials showed lately. They seemed to be disaffected by all of this, as if this thing is not to be despised nor to be thought as illegal.

Where's our morals? It could be that we have lost it altogether and we're ripe for the reaping.

Who'll win the high-stakes war?

Talks are rife that Malacanang is really campaigning for the ouster of JDV. Despite very public pronouncements from both sides that they love each other, privately, they hate each other's guts. Quite simply, this struggle between cliques inside the ruling administration party reflects the "nervousness" of the party since 2010 is just around the corner. The absence of any worthy presidentiable among their ranks are beginning to worry party leaders. A news report says Lakas has been conducting a search for a party standard-bearer, and talks are again rife that most of Lakas solons have'nt really found somebody yet worthy of fielding against the De Castros, the Lacsons, the Roxases and Villars of other parties. The prospect of defeat looms in the horizon.

The possibility of Lakas again being marginalized and out of power in a post-Arroyo regime looms large, as the party is still struggling hard to maintain its current stature. Raids conducted by Kampi, the president's own party, caused a dent in the Lakas organizational structure. Though results from the elections seemed to indicate that Lakas managed to pull a fast one from Kampi, nonetheless, threats still remain, ironically coming from their allies instead of their perceived traditional enemies.

Most of these reports about the "impeachment" complaint filed by a nondescript lawyer and the current "war" between JDV and GMA shows a classic war between trapos. Obviously, both sides know that they are headed towards a confrontation. JDV is using this impeachment complaint as his ace against the president while the president used a traitor in the person of Pulido to oust the speaker in another route. Caught in middle are their respective allies. Right now, its a numbers game. Both cliques are counting on their political mass bases for survival.

The question is---why is Malacanang moving against JDV? Is it because of the ZTE?

No. ZTE is just a peripheral issue here. The revelation of Joey is a small matter.

The main contention here is the prime ministership. The plan is to initiate a constitutional change from a presidential to parliamentary before 2010 and both Arroyo and De Venecia want the post. This is the prime driver causing a wedge between both cliques.

On the ground, proxy wars are being initiated by both camps. There's an appearance that JDV and GMA are still allie but in reality, they are just preparing for war. With this situation, both the executive and the lower house have been rendered ineffective and debilitated. Ravenous parties lusting for wealth and power are exploiting this issue to court favours from both parties. What we now have is a serious intra-elite struggle that needs something to get full-blown. The law of nature dictates that for every flow, there should be an outlet to release the energy. This needs an outlet. And their pawns and generals should create one and fast.

Omerta under the Arroyo administration

Madame Arroyo just signed a proclamation which effectively bars anybody from reading and probably, revealing military secrets. If I remember my law (Ateneo de Manila), there are existing penal provisions regarding this. Military secrets are part of state secrets and I think the president does not need to reiterate this fact. Such files in the US can only be declassified after 50 years.

The question is---what prompted Mrs. Arroyo to again "remind" us of this existing prohibitory provision in the RPC?

Two instances: one, the Tirso Danga incident and the impending retirement of Mr. Esperon. Just recently, Mrs. Arroyo went and reportedly pleaded with Danga not to reveal what happened during the controversial 2004 presidential elections. Danga belonged to the disgraced few who allegedly helped Mrs. Arroyo clinch the presidency. Wagging tongues say Mrs. Arroyo pleaded for her life in exchange for a position to Danga, who, for all intents and purposes, cannot be physically capable of doing any good for government due to his sickness.

Another instance--the impending retirement of Mr. Esperon, another personality linked to the scandal. Esperon's role during that election sealed his appointment to the highest military post. Esperon was instrumental in ensuring the victory of GMA against all odds. He reportedly used his military connections to gag the mouths of those involved in the massive cheating ops. Four months from now, he'll retire. Others like him were given government posts afterwards and this will also be the same fate for Esperon to buy his silence. The question that remains--will Esperon be gentleman enough to tell the truth about what happened?

Playing Gods

These people are playing gods. Drunk with power, they can swallow their integrity and honor for the sake of money. Graduates of the PMA, they were, but they act like the people owe them something. Being PMA plebes, they were taught to defer their own selves for the sake of the people who gave their hand-earned money for their education. But no. These people, especially those who now conspire with Arroyo to bastardize democracy in the Philippines, are shameful, spineless puppet idiots who act like they are mighty and high, but in truth, they are as shallow, ignorant, foolish and dumb as their principal.

Sick gods

Some still hope that lurking deep inside these gods' thick hides lies some goodness left. That the system has not entirely corrupted them. I notice that those who have been totally stripped of any good in their bodies and minds suffer serious diseases, like heart attacks, cancers, and any debilitating disease. Some suffer from delusions and stress-related illnesses. In truth, those who partake of GMA's regime all have this disease, and some hope, for the sake of the country, that this is still a curable one.

Lessons of History

Eventually, history teaches us that everytime man thinks of himself as a god, that's a sign that its time for him to fade away. History is always harsh against pseudo-omnicients. When a state behaves like a damned god, the True God suddenly appears to wipe it in the face of the earth. Such eventuality is not far-fetched in this regime. The True God is a paragon of truth and Filipinos deserve the truth. There will definitely come a time when God will forcefully open their mouths and wipe the word omerta from their bodies. Afterwards, they will be cast as shameful mistahs into the fiery fires of hell to suffer eternal punishment for making the lives of 86 million miserable.

Why are we so sensitive? My take on Filipino doctors and Cory as Slut

Why are we suddenly so sensitive on other people's views about us? Look at the reaction of Filipinos when Teri Hatcher said something about the "competency" of our doctors. She was just telling the truth. Do we really think of ourselves as "geniuses" or really "experts" in the medical profession that we can't be told of such things, like a joke? Or, we just don't want the world to know that we have been producing doctors or medical practitioners from diploma mills?

Let's be reasonable, shall we?

How many doctors, nurses or caretakers do we "produce" every year? Close to a hundred thousand? How many of those are quality doctors, nurses or caretakers? I know that we really have very, very good doctors. But, do we have a monopoly of quality doctors? Can we really claim that every year we churn out quality medical practitioners? Or most of those whom we grant nursing licenses are half-baked ones?

How many review centers do we have? How many colleges who previously don't give nursing courses or medical courses now suddenly claim to be "expert" schools in medicine? Examples are IT schools such as AMA and STI. They now have their own "medical" schools. Just go around Metro Manila and you'll see that every school, every review center of every Tom, Dick and Harry have their "specialists", "experts" in medicine.

Admit it---we are now one big medical school diploma mill. Since everybody wants to go abroad and the surest way to do that is to become either a nurse or a caregiver, we have treated medicine as a cheap profession. Yes, we have made the medical profession like a skills or technical course.

And, its like, we are hypocrites. We made a big fuss out of this and this latest dig against Former President Cory (whom by the way, its really below the belt, that American show calling Cory a "slut". Former First Lady Hillary Clinton is a legitimate slut, compared with Cory. Bush is also a man-slut. How about Bill Clinton? He's also a man slut (remember that sucking episode?)

We are hypocrites because we protest about these things but we don't protest the things being thrown at us by the Arroyo regime. We protest against these things but we don't go to the streets to protest about the shitty things being done to us by our leaders.

I blame the government for the low regard of other nationalities to Pinoys. How will one be proud of being Pinoy when our leaders show dishonesty? Our leaders are spineless thieves. They not only rob us of our hard-earned money, they also rob us of our voices. GMA is the biggest thief. We have the worst model citizen--GMA. What values do we attach to GMA? The value of dishonesty, robbery, immorality. So, why are we so sensitive? How can we counteract such views on us when we have a president like that?

Soros hand in recent Philippine events

There was a surprising revelation that escaped everybody's attention during the ZTE hearings. I remember one senator (I think its Senator Enrile---just review the transcripts) asking Joey de Venecia who'll back him up financially in the NBN deal. Without batting an eyelash, Joey retorted the magic word: “Soros”.

Ah, Soros.

We all know who George Soros is. For those who don’t, three words to remember about him---Open Democracy (which I espouse), Asian Financial Crisis and Billionaire. He’s the Richard Branson of the financial world. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew once blamed him for the Asian financial crisis. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad once accused him of manipulating world markets for his own ends. I remembered FVR telling everybody that George Soros' hand was behind the spate of coups during the Cory Aquino regime.

Who's Soros?

Soros heads the Soros Management Fund, a global operation which essentially promotes open societies. You can check Google or the website http://www.soros.org or www.opendemocracy.net for more details.

Various sources describe him as a Financial speculator, a political activist and even a philosopher. He was once a student of Karl Popper, the philosopher credited of having created the concept of Open Democracy.

Actually, Soros pushes for Open Democracy. However, some sectors attribute sinister political motives behind every Soros' action. Soros hates despots. He was once a victim of fascism. He experienced it first hand when, as a young Hungarian Jew, he suffered first-hand atrocities under Hitler’s regime.

Soros’ stake in the Philippines

Soros is known to finance revolutions. He did it at EDSA. He did it for the Rose Revolution in Europe. For some societies, his participation proved to be crucial. Others, like his part in the repudiation of Bush re-election campaign, was a failure. His 80 billion dollar empire stretches “ in the farthest reaches, in the ends of the earth”, so to speak.

Why finance a revolution in the Philippines?

Obviously, current political reality dictates that changes in the present political structure is in order. The Arroyo administration is slowly becoming despotic. Former US President Bill Clinton’s remark about his former classmate as being “the most feared woman in the Philippines” tells you a lot about how Americans perceive Arroyo’s regime. Analyzing the Philippine situation, there are five (5) things that justifies a regime change.

1. The Arroyo administration’s militarization of the state. The Philippine state is a garrison state, ruled by a chosen few, chosen more for their subservience to the Arroyo clique than anything else. Just looking at the Cabinet and their underlings says much about this administration. Retired generals populate sensitive posts, appointed more on their capabilities at producing financial results to the Arroyo clique than anything. Undersecretaries are mostly business associates of the First Gentleman. Other posts, like the Supreme Court, the Ombusman and even the COMELEC have been given to puppets of the clique.

2. Tendencies in centralizing economic gains. The “improving” economic condition of the Philippines is not a miracle. Globalization has opened the doors of free trade to Asia-Pacific economies. Philippine economic fundamentals remain strong, buoyed by overseas remittances and strong foreign portfolio investments. However, the vertical growth of the economy has not resulted to horizontal development because economic gains failed to redound or spill over to sectors at the middle and bottom rungs of the economy. The reason is simple---a chosen few, the elites, have cornered most of the economic gains. The middle class—the prime motor of economic growth in other countries— remained stagnant. There is limited social movement in this class because of the concentration of wealth. Worst, large chunks of this class have fallen to the lower rungs of the economic strata. Pitifully, the proletarian class has likewise stagnated and remained slave consumers, powerless, and unable to progress to the higher stage of development. This concentration of wealth to a few breeds dissent from disfranchised sectors, creating an inevitable revolutionary situation.
3. Increasing human rights violations. Critics of this administration have suffered most of the brunt of human rights violations, perpetuated by state security agencies. As expected, the ruling oligarchs and their political allies will protect their economic wealth against the counter-elite. Those outside of the politico-economic circle of influence, will, undoubtedly, move to grab this concentrated wealth for themselves. Quite expectedly, force from the counter-elite (dubbed “destabilization” by the ruling elite) will also be met with equal or stronger force as a form of self-preservation or self-defense by the state’s ruling clique. Violations of basic rights are therefore, expected from this power struggle, with underlings suffering the most.
4. Contracting, instead of expanding. With continued destabilization, the state slowly closes its doors to counter-elites, forcing it to isolation. Isolation dictates that trust should only be given to subservient interest groups. Favors, will therefore be dispensed to those who pledge allegiance to the clique. The state in this situation contracts, and this contraction will also affect not only the political realm but also in the economic realm. This is quite evident in the ZTE deal. The administration gave the deal to the Chinese because it was supported by a strong financial ally (Razon) and a political wheeler-dealer (Abalos). Such situations can never be avoided under the current state of affairs. The weakness of this administration is exploitable because it is being forced to give in to economic favours to maintain status quo. The continued destabilization coming from a disfranchised counter-elite forces slowly weakens the state and thus, as a natural reaction, the state tries to gain strength by expanding its support bases, which, in this case, can only come from members of the economic community and the political operators.
5. Weakening state security. GMA’s decision to scrap the ZTE deal due to political noise tells you a lot about this administration. It has been decisively weakened. It has exposed its weakness by bowing to political pressure. Yes, this blogger encouraged GMA to stand down, because, following political strategy, that’s the most logical survival tactic available to her. The explosive nature of the controversy could force her ouster. However, her decision actually resulted to prolong her rule only for a few weeks or months, not years. The state’s weak state will affect not only her administration, but will definitely affect even the economy.

Indications of an impending regime change

1. Strengthening of the peso. Reports say that the peso will hit 40 or even 37 by year’s end. Is this good or is this bad? Obviously, it’s very bad. The peso’s comfortable exchange rate is around 40-41 pesos for a dollar. Some sectors are spreading the rumour that it could hit 37 or even 30 by 2008. This is bad because a strong peso will undoubtedly affect the export sector. You will have a situation where hundreds of small and medium sized export enterprises will be forced to close down because of this. You’ll have a situation where families relying on remittances will receive lesser amount of money than before. When you have a strong peso, you’ll be lessening the purchasing power of the middle class and the remittance-dependent lower classes, resulting to increased poverty. And, you’ll also find thousands of Filipinos out of work because hundreds of export companies will be forced to close shop. When you have that kind of situation, you are creating a replica of what happened in Argentina many years ago.
2. Demoralization among the soldiers’ ranks. The AFP admits this. Reports say, Esperon will file coup d’etat charges against six lieutenants. Note that those involved here are lieutenants, not colonels and definitely, not generals. This indicates a massive number of demoralized soldiers and when you have that kind of situation, you definitely have a serious issue at hand. Defeats in the Southern arena of war continues and GMA’s trusty military puppets will definitely have a hard time convincing troops to remain loyal.
3. Increasing dissent in the disfranchised sectors of society. The ZTE deal exposed a raw nerve in the Filipino psyche. It fueled hate. It fanned the flames of paninibugho (for a lack of an English translation, I wrote the Filipino term here---my apologies), a feeling more serious than the Western concept of hatred.
4. Losing political base. There’s a split in the ruling clique brought by the ZTE deal. Concessions were granted to other members of the clique to the consternation of other loyal subjects of the clique. This sprawn a division which could lead to ouster of the head of the clique. Far worst, this shows a permanent crack in the relationship, which obviously, was a patron-client one. The lost of a stable political base further led to a weakening, which, in this case, puts the regime in a serious state.

Soros knows this. Expect a heightening of tensions between inter-elites which could lead to an implosion. This implosion will fuel destabilization which will lead to disintegration of existing relationships and possible ouster from power possibly in the first quarter of next year. Or even earlier.

AB-ZTE-FG---will FG be next in the firing line?

Abalos has just resigned. GMA was reportedly surprised. This happened in a very short period of time. The next query--who's next in the chopping block?

AB then ZTE

Will GMA's trip to China today marks the end of ZTE? This abrupt trip to China smells like an attempt at damage control on the part of the president. What will GMA say to the Chinese? She appears like one of the consorts of the Chinese emperor of old, reporting to them like they are the new masters of the Filipinos. We know from sources inside the palace that the $ 1.8 B loan package that China dangled like a carrot to Arroyo is on the verge of being written off by the Chinese because of this ZTE deal. And we heard that some ZTE officials have literally begged Arroyo to tell the truth about this shaddy deal entered by her and her husband to their principal in China. Some Chinese friends from the Communist Party told New Philippine Revolution that the stench has reached alarming proportions throughout the global business community that it threatens other ZTE deals from other countries. ZTE is a global brand. Its a major supplier of telecommunications equipment for large multinational companies around the world. With this deal going bonkers, expect a major shakedown within the company. That shakedown of political operators within ZTE will have drastic effects on the company's capabilities.

ZTE then FG

After the ZTE, will GMA then pressure her husband to "back off" from government deals, the same way she and her gang turned Abalos into a sacrificial lamb? It seems that FG has been effectively shielded from all these just by merely being away from it all. What is FG really doing there in Europe? Is he trying to protect their asses err assets? Or, as some say, FG is preparing the country of their exile in time for the next big thing? We heard that the couple does not intend to suffer the same fate as Erap so they would want to stay away from the Philippines in an event of major power grab.

Issue shifting---again

It seems that the issue has drastically changed direction. Last week, all eyes were on Abalos as he tried to parry the maliciousness of the Senate and the barrage of illicit innuendoes. Now that he resigned, the administration has a real issue in their hands. As what we wrote here, it's clear that Abalos will be sacrificed by the palace along with Neri. His resignation has now dictated the tempo of this controversy. For instead of putting an end into all of these, Abalos' resignation has put Arroyo into very dangerous situations.

Dangerous Liaisons

Think about this---Abalos will now be free to launch a vilification campaign against his former principal. Like all other EDSA 1 veterans, Abalos is obviously a fighter. He's a political survivor. He knows the game and has the skills for survival. Obviously, Abalos was stunned by the betrayal of the palace whom he has caressed and cared for during the previous two elections. I believe the confrontation of Neri and Abalos during the Senate hearings have taken Abalos aback. Obviously, the old man could not believe that he's being fed to the wolves, with nay of a support (even moral) from his principal. Grizzled veterans like Abalos knows how and when to throw that knockout punch and judging from his moves right now, Abalos is timing his actions. Will Abalos do an Ali who once flew like a butterfly and sting like a bee?

Abalos ala Ali

Reports say, Abalos vowed to fight back. He wants to clear his name. But, ex Chair, how would you do it? The entire country has taken you as an influence-peddler. The entire palace media machinery has been ordered to wreck your entire persona. You have been portrayed as a cheap political caddy. It would take Abalos years to repair that damage. It appears that Abalos will not fade away, as some palace sectors hope he would.

Villains turning into heroes?

If Abalos sings, as some civil society sectors hope he will, it might turn him into an instant hero. Look at how Chavit did it. Chavit is as guilty as Erap when he made that "revelation." Will Abalos do the same thing, this time against the EDSA 2 beneficiary?

Look at the number of articles coming out of the papers. It's like a political battlefield out there. Some reports say that JDV has a hand in a number of Chinese deals, including the North Rail and the Cyber-Education project. I believe in this. JDV probably sent his son or supported him just for them to appear clean in all these allegations. Or, even if he did'nt do it or did'nt push his son or any other sonnafabitch to spill the dirty work, there's a clear indication that these things have a deeper shit behind them.

Neri---the real villain?

It appears, as some sectors allude, that Neri is not as clean as what he was pictured out to be. ZTE pursued him even up to the ched with the Cyber-Education project, another big elephant which nearly escaped the public eye. Is it possible that Neri did received a huge sum, as what some reports say, from ZTE? Is Neri the real villain here? Note that Neri elected not to reveal anything against Arroyo at the hearings. He's a lapdog, that's as clear as day. Why? Probably the palace holds some aces in their sleeves against him. It could be that Neri is a bagman, as what others say he is.

The Final Punch

I still believe that all of these things will lead to a big incident, so big that it would topple GMA in a few months' time. Forces are slowly confluencing into one gigantic movement and nature's law dictates that such a force should (1) have direction and (2) should have an outlet of expression.

In the next few days, I believe that Abalos will find "enlightenment" and decide to fight those who betrayed him. Will he spill the beans, as some sectors hope he will against GMA? Or he'll just fire his gun specifically at his detractors, at Joey?

His decision will be based on time. Readers, this is cryptic. Read between the lines, please and you'll know the truth.





(UPDATE) Cory Aquino visits Abalos after resignation
By Kristine L. Alave
Inquirer
Last updated 07:54pm (Mla time) 10/01/2007
Most Read
MANILA, Philippines--Former president Corazon Aquino on Monday visited Benjamin Abalos Sr. after he announced his resignation as chairman of the Commission on Elections (Comelec), saying she was returning the support Abalos and his family gave her when she herself was plagued by crisis.

Aquino arrived at Abalos’ residence on Kanlaon Street in Mandaluyong City past 3 p.m. She was greeted by the ex-poll chairman and his wife, Corazon.

In a brief talk with the media, Aquino expressed support for Abalos and said she has been praying for the beleaguered government official.

When her administration was threatened by coup d’etats, Abalos was one of the first officials to arrive in Malacañang to give her support. Abalos and his wife were also there for her when she felt like an outcast and nobody wanted to associate with her during her crisis years, Aquino said.

“I’m returning his support,” Aquino explained, adding that her visit should remind Abalos that he still has friends.

"Nung nakita ko si Cora kanina, awang-awa ako [When I saw Cora earlier, I pitied her]," she added.

On the allegations that Abalos brokered the $329-million national broadband network (NBN) deal between the Arroyo administration and the Chinese firm ZTE Corp., Aquino withheld her judgment. She added that Abalos must have prayed hard when he decided to step down from his post.

“The truth will come out,” the former president said.

“Daanin na lang natin sa dasal [Let us course it through prayers]. Trust everything to the Lord,” Aquino advised Abalos.

Aside from allegedly brokering the NBN contract, Abalos was also accused of attempted bribery by former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Romulo Neri and businessman Jose De Venecia III.

Abalos vehemently denied the charges, saying he would file damage and perjury suits against his detractors.

Aquino gave Abalos his first break in politics when she appointed him officer-in-charge of Mandaluyong City in 1986, after the People Power revolution.

The ex-poll official even showed photographs of his oath-taking as Mandaluyong City OIC to Aquino, during their chat, which lasted for about 30 minutes.

Abalos eventually became the city mayor, a post he held until 1998, when he was replaced by his son, Benhur.
After his stint in the local government, Abalos headed the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority. In 2002, he was appointed by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to chair the Commission on Elections.

Abalos said he was “encouraged” by Aquino’s visit. The former president left the Abalos residence around 3:50 p.m.

"When you are in crisis, you will really know who your real friends are," he said.

“I feel very much touched. Somehow, this strengthens you,” he said. “I never expected this,” he added.

Originally posted at 3:25pm

ZTE mess being used to agitate troops? Aw c'mon!

I don't believe that destabilizers are that foolish in using the ZTE deal as a propaganda tool for another shot at freedom. The ZTE deal is obviously, a very weak issue for anti-GMA groups to use against the administration. Indeed, there is an on-going recruitment among various troops, as stated in news reports and confirmed even by AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Esperon. But, I don't think the soldiers will be convinced to join the destabilizers just because Malacanan is enmessed with the business deal of two big-time groups.

What I do know is this---if and when groups do spill into the streets against this administration, it will do so because things have reached boiling point. Yes, I believe there is now a revolutionary situation. However, this situation has not been brought up by the ZTE deal. No. This situation arose due to the following factors:

1. The July Basilan incident which led to the deaths of more than 50 soldiers.
2. Extra-judicial killings perpetuated by the state against its perceived enemies. This issue has resonated to the international community, making it very viable for anti-GMA groups to solicit support from foreign entities.
3. Uneven playing field in the business arena. This ZTE deal reflects the propensity of this administration to favor its cronies. Hence, local businessmen feel threatened especially the entry of Chinese products into the market. This further bolsters the ranks of anti-GMA groups.

Warning to this administration: the perceived silence of the middle class does not mean acquisence. It only means three things: (a) there is an undercurrent of dissent against the prevailing elite but has not managed to manifest itself into concrete action (b) disorganization and division on the part of anti-GMA groups and (c) lack of resources for mobilization. If these things are met and there is a right condition, then, the possibility of a power grab is high.

Possible Scenarios

1. Withdrawal of support from key officials allied with JDV-FVR-JoAL
2. Withdrawal of support from key military personnel, both active and retired
3. Possible clash between loyalist and anti-GMA forces
4. Possible flight in a foreign country by GMA and her clique.
5. Establishment of a revolutionary government (transitional)

ZTE mess being used to agitate troops’

By PERSEUS ECHEMINADA
The Philippine Star

Transportation and Communications Secretary Leandro Mendoza said Saturday groups out to destabilize the Arroyo administration are using the controversy on the national broadband network (NBN) deal with China’s ZTE Corp. to “agitate” government troops.

“The issue has become highly politicized that it’s now being circulated in the military camps to agitate the troops,” he said in a chance interview with The STAR in a restaurant at the Quezon Memorial Circle.

Mendoza said no less than Armed Forces chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr. has confirmed that there are indeed recruitment activities in military camps.

However, he said this move is doomed as the people are already fed up with moves to destabilize the government.

“Any attempt to oust President Arroyo at this point in time will not get support from the people. We advise these groups to wait for the 2010 elections,” he said.

He said personalities linked to the oust-GMA movement are the same people who are now trying to ride on the NBN controversy to trigger unrest on the streets.

He said the allegations of bribery and graft and corruption are now pending before the Office of the Ombudsman, while the issue on the validity of the contract is also pending before the Supreme Court.

“Let us uphold the rule of law, instead of getting out of the legal process,” he said.

Mrs. Arroyo suspended the NBN project indefinitely Saturday upon Mendoza’s recommendation. Also suspended was the Cyber Education program of the Department of Education.

The military and the police also see the NBN controversy as part of a move to undermine the Arroyo administration.

Sources in the military and police intelligence communities bared this following their threat assessment meeting held somewhere in Makati City Friday night.

“What started as a plain and casual quarrel among two business rivals had already transformed into a political controversy that now tends to undermine the security of the state,” one source said.

Meanwhile, talk of destabilization sent military and police officials jumping from their sleep Friday night following supposed disturbances at the Fort Bonifacio residence of former Army and AFP chief, retired Gen. Lisandro Abadia.

However, military and police intelligence operatives dispatched to Abadia’s place found nothing unusual in the area.

“It’s all disinformation,” an intelligence officer later told his superiors.

However, the AFP, not wanting to get caught with its pants down, called in two more battalions of troops to Metro Manila while the Philippine National Police deployed the Special Action Force (SAF) supported by several tanks in Camp Crame.

Army safe from recruitment

Maj. Gen. Jose Barbieto, commanding officer of the Army’s 4th Infantry Division based in Cagayan de Oro City, gave assurance that his men would not entertain any recruitment offers to destabilize the government.

Barbieto said his men are busy on counter-insurgency operations and vigilant against Abu Sayyaf terrorists that they can no longer entertain such illicit offers.

The 4th ID recently inked a pact with the PNP’s Northern Mindanao regional office for the police to have a more active role in counter-insurgency operations.

Barbieto said he does not need any loyalty checks on his troops. “My soldiers have always followed the Constitution and the chain of command,” he said.

Marines ‘vulnerable’

However, Marine Commandant Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ben Dolorfino said institutional cracks continue to put the Marine Corps as a vulnerable target for recruitment in any destabilization plot.

Dolorfino cited past events where Marines were involved in coup attempts.

“That is contrary to what our forefathers in the Marines have taught us… to be the cutting edge in the military organization,” he said.

Dolorfino, who stayed overnight in Basilan last Tuesday and in Sulu on Thursday, his first out-of-town visit since he was appointed as Marine commandant, wasted no time in weaving the cracks affecting the organization.

In an apparent confirmation of misbehavior, some of the Marine ground personnel commented behind his back that their commandant should have brought canned goods and other food supplies rather than notes and papers.

Dolorfino said that since the guilty verdict on former President Joseph Estrada for plunder, text messages of destabilization and recruitment have been circulating. – With Jaime Laude, Mark Francisco and Roel Pareño

Bungled Opportunity to be Great; JDV an Idiot

Read the Inquirer headline today. It says that JDV went to Malacanan to have an audience with Arroyo. After that 45 minute meeting, which JDV described as a "constructive" one, he says that their relationship remains stable and strong despite the ZTE deal.

This action by the Speaker is precisely why JDV will never become president nor a prime minister. He does not deserve it. He's the type of guy who will compromise when push comes to shove. Great leaders are not compromisers. Great leaders know when to stand their ground and when to relent. In this case, JDV will always remain a second-rate politician, and some say, even of the worst kind.

If JDV feels that he's strong and has the numbers, he should not have gone to the palace for that meeting. This meeting shows the true nature of JDV. He is ambition-driven. He does not have the "balls" so to speak, to stand up against his enemies. He will even sell his family if needs be. What he wants is just power, not the welfare of the majority of our people.

As I previously wrote here, this ZTE controversy is an opportunity for him to be great. And this chance only comes once in a lifetime. However, that meeting with GMA shows that JDV will tolerate any form of corruption for as long as he's not involved in it, or his friends did it, or that it does not impact on his political standing. Such a stand says much about the character of the Speaker. He's the nation's worst example of being a leader. He does not lead; he simply cannot be a true leader because he's a compromiser. He compromises only for himself.

By meeting the president, the Speaker is condoning whatever actions the First Gentleman and his gang did against the nation. That ZTE deal is an illegal one. It is quite obvious that it will burden 80 million Filipinos with a 25 billion peso debt. For the Speaker, the issue is just a misunderstanding between him and GMA. The Speaker thinks along the lines of politics, but does not think about the welfare of the Filipino People who stands to lose their shirts if this deal pushes through.

Call me pragmatic or what-have-you, but the Speaker bungled the opportunity to be great. He should have stood behind his son. He should have praised him for standing up against the "bakal boys" of the palace and condemned it. But no. The fourth highest official of the land decided to side with the bakal boys.

Great men are risk-takers. They don't consider grey areas. For the Speaker, he always see a rainbow.

Speaker: If there's oust threat, will crush it
'I am torn between my love for my son and GMA'

By Norman Bordadora, Christian V. Esguerra
Inquirer
Last updated 00:21am (Mla time) 09/22/2007
Most Read
Full coverage: The NBN Deal

View liveblog of Senate hearing at Inquirer Current

View the NBN contract and related documents

MANILA, Philippines -- His post may be at risk because of his son's testimony at the Senate implicating President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's husband, but Speaker Jose de Venecia says he is confident of weathering the political storm.

In fact, the man said, he did not need Malacañang's guarantee to complete his unprecedented fifth term until 2010. "I feel strong in my own right," he told the Philippine Daily Inquirer in an interview at his Makati residence Friday.

Asked in a separate interview to assess his hold on the House leadership, De Venecia declared: "There is no threat. And if there is a threat, we'll crush it."

The Speaker said he was "bewitched and bewildered" in the wake of his son Jose "Joey" de Venecia's testimony implicating Jose Miguel "Mike" Arroyo in the $329-million National Broadband Network deal.

"I am torn between my love for my son and my love for the President," he said. But he added that he would not reach the point of having to make the ultimate choice, and neither would administration allies in the House.

"That will not arise because the relationship is stable; the coalition is impregnable," the Speaker said, referring to the administration coalition composed largely of Arroyo's Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi) and his Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats.

"I don't need to make a choice because I am for my son and I am for the President," he said.

'A little delicate'
Joey de Venecia told the Senate on Tuesday that Mike Arroyo had thrust a finger at his face and told him to "back off" from the NBN deal.

The Speaker admitted Friday that his son's testimony had had some effect on his relationship with Arroyo, his running mate in his failed bid for the presidency in 1998.

"There's a little effect, but she knows in her heart that I had nothing to do with it," he said, acknowledging that the current political scene was "a little delicate."

"To clear the air" between the two of them, he said, they had a 45-minute meeting in Malacañang at around 11 p.m. on Wednesday.

The meeting, which was arranged by Deputy Speaker Amelita Villarosa, took place shortly after administration congressmen had dinner at the Palace, purportedly to express support for Arroyo in the wake of the NBN scandal.

At the meeting, De Venecia told Arroyo that his son had not accused her husband of any wrongdoing in connection with the NBN deal.

Asked if Arroyo had assured him of Malacañang's continued support, the Speaker said: "I don't need to ask that from her ... The same way that when I support her, she doesn't have to beg or ask me.

"I just do it because we're allies. We know what to do. The mere fact that she invited me [to Malacañang] was enough. We discussed things objectively."

Earlier in the week, De Venecia acknowledged that a crisis was brewing as a result of his son's testimony at the Senate.

But he pointed out that his son had "continuously defended" the President, referring to Joey de Venecia's statement that she was never involved in the brokering of the NBN deal.

Asked then how he was doing, the Speaker said: "As usual, managing even in crisis.

"I am torn between my loyalty to the President and my love for my son. But actually, there really is no problem.

"It is only the media that is making all these allegations [of a rift]."

Threat from a few
The Speaker dismissed the threat to unseat him as coming from a few House members loyal to Arroyo but who had dissociated themselves from him.

"As early as the battle for the speakership [against Cebu Rep. Pablo Garcia in July], it has always been the President's allies, like [Sorsogon Rep. Jose] Solis, the likes of [Camarines Sur Rep. Luis] Villafuerte. That's all, period. There's no more," he said.

Garcia told the Inquirer (parent company of INQUIRER.net) Friday that there was "no move" to oust De Venecia, at least for now.

He said his group was leaving the matter to other members of the bloc and the President herself. "We will meet in the coming days and get a consensus," he said.

The so-called Garcia group was formed initially as a "conscience" bloc soon after the Cebu congressman lost in the speakership race.

Even Kampi chairman and Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno said Kampi had no plan to work for De Venecia's ouster.

Anyway, Puno told reporters, there was "not enough of a vote in the House" that could unseat De Venecia now.

"For the record, there is no attempt to unseat the Speaker. For the record, I think Congress will remain in its present form and continue to work under its present organization," Puno said.

He also said it was not a good time for the House to change leadership because its members had been assigned their committees and were buckling down to work.

He added that it was too late now for Congress "to start from scratch."

Asked whether Arroyo still supported De Venecia, Puno said: "I don't think there has been any change in the attitude of the President toward Lakas as a party, the coalition in general, and the congressional leadership."

'We will overcome'
De Venecia expressed confidence that he still enjoyed the "overwhelming" support of members of the House. He apparently arrived at this conclusion after a series of meetings with coalition members that began on Wednesday and went on until Thursday night.

"We're going through a period of political turbulence," he said. "[But] I think that by and large, we will overcome it. We have no major differences within the majority coalition."

De Venecia pointed out that his meeting with Arroyo was arranged by Deputy Speaker Villarosa, a member of Kampi.

"I can't just go meet the President without any invitation. We don't want to impose on her hospitality even if we're very close friends," he said.

De Venecia said Arroyo continued to back him as Speaker and as her top ally in the House because he continued to support her as President.

Proof of Arroyo's support, he said, was his retaining his post despite the serious challenge posed by Garcia in July.

Counting the ways
De Venecia ticked off the occasions when, he said, he showed Arroyo that he would support her "come hell or high water."

"I have supported her in the impeachment battle, in the Cabinet revolt against her," he said.

The first referred to the two failed efforts to impeach Arroyo as a result of the "Hello Garci" wiretapping scandal, and the second, to the mass resignation of members of her Cabinet--collectively known as the "Hyatt 10"--who called on her to step down amid allegations that she had manipulated the 2004 presidential election.

De Venecia also cited the time when he and former president Fidel Ramos went to Malacañang to throw their support behind Arroyo at the height of calls for her ouster.

"Many [people] were saying that [we came to her rescue," he said. "But I don't even give importance to that. I just do things for her in the same way that she does things for me."

He also said he staked whatever little popularity he had in supporting the unpopular Expanded Value-Added Tax Law that the Arroyo administration pushed in the 13th Congress.

Exercise in futility
House Majority Leader Arthur Defensor said lawmakers numbering not more than 10 had been "agitating [other lawmakers] for the ouster of the Speaker."

"It's an exercise in futility," Defensor told the Inquirer. "Even Pablo (Garcia) is not up to it. It's just the people around him."

Agusan del Norte Rep. Rodolfo Plaza, a senior member of the House opposition, told reporters that he would support De Venecia if push came to shove.

"He could have asked his son not to testify against the First Gentleman, but he did not," Plaza said of the Speaker. "Somebody like that deserves support."

With a report from Christine O. Avendaño

Abalos and Formoso--sacrificial lambs

Joey de Venecia was a picture of frustration at today's Senate hearings. After Mendoza admitted meeting Mr. Arroyo and Comelec chairman Abalos, Joey sensed something wrong. Mendoza told Senators that he did meet the First Gentleman and Chairman Abalos at Wack Wack Golf and Country Club, but there was nothing anomalous about it. It was a simple chat, that's all and it has nothing to do with the ZTE deal.

Bull.

Don't tell me that the First Gentleman did not "pressure" Mendoza to agree about the deal. Don't tell me that Chair Abalos did'nt caddy for the Chinese. Abalos already admitted knowing the ZTE officials and they have discussed the ZTE deal at length prior to the April 21 signing of the agreement in China. Mendoza is simply lying for saying that he knows nothing rotten about the deal. What's more, Mendoza simply allowed an underling to defend the contract, deftly distancing himself from the issue. Is this the kind of secretary we deserve? Someone who heads the department but does'nt know or simply feign innocence whenever something like this happens?

I do believe, however, that Mendoza did not earn a single cent from this deal. I believe that Mendoza is clean. I can't say about the First Gentleman and Abalos. Maybe this deal was just to accommodate the wishes of the "old man" who's set to retire four months from now. Its quite possible that Abalos was expecting this deal to be his swan song. I do believe Joey's revelation though about Abalos. It seems that Joey was really pressured by Abalos to back off because this project was a project of the First Gentleman and Abalos.

I do emphathize with Mendoza though. He owes the First Gentleman his position. And generals like him are admired most for their capacity to keep secrets. It seems that Mendoza was just doing his job, while Abalos appears to be the one who wants a quick buck. It could be that this deal was the First Gentleman's gift to Abalos.

Obviously, in this political vaudeville (as described by GMA), the die has already been cast. Sacrifice Abalos and Formoso. Abalos is retiring from government service anyway while Formoso, well, he's dispensible. From the looks of it, GMA and her gang has decided to let Abalos go. The question though is, is this a wise decision?

The cabbie sings

Abalos knows a lot of secrets. He knows the real score especially on the 2004 elections. If he sings....that's another "fresh" destabilization plot. Abalos said that he'll attend the Senate hearings on Wednesday to clear his name. Sadly, this might be a foregone conclusion. The reputation of Abalos has been destroyed by Joey's pronouncements that it would be very hard for Abalos to cleanse his name.

A warning though to the good Chairman---the Chinese intelligence service is closely observing what's happening here. The Chinese Communist Party, obviously, would not let this issue sitting down. Abalos could face a very dangerous situation here.

If Abalos is let go, what's the possibility of him singing like a canary? There's a chance that he will.

Postscript

A "sick" First Gentleman left for Germany in the eve of the Senate hearings. What prompted him to leave? Could it be because of the Senate hearings? I think not.

I think the First Gentleman needs to check on his deposits in Switzerland. He went there with his banker. What would prod a sick man to leave in haste if it not for money? The only possibility is one of his banks need his signature. For what, you may ask? There are three possibilities: (1) FG needs to sign a bank transfer (2) He needs to withdraw a huge sum of money which he cannot do online and (3) it could be he's preparing the country of exile?

These things don't happen without a purpose. I stand by my observation that negotiations between GMA's camp and the counter-elite has reached an impasse. There could be another stab at ousting the president and the palace probably knows that the counter-elite has a stronger force than theirs. Are we seeing a repeat of EDSA very soon? I think yes. But, it may not happen this month or the next. It could probably happen either by January or February of next year. I think the nation is expecting yet another scandal which could precipitate a power grab.

Why the coup never materialized

12 September 2007. Notice the numeral configuration: 12+09+2007. If you add 1+2 in 12, its 3. If you add 2+0+0=7, its 9, divisible by 3. The charade started at 9 and ended in 10am. All odds. Truly, an oddity of an event, is'nt?

At the eve of the Erap verdict, I received information from my deepthroats that Camp Aguinaldo was closely monitoring the movements of a group who were planning for a coup. Composed of active military-men and some retired officials, this group has been in the radar since the issue started. They never moved nor were they even close to their objective. Why?

Like I said in my previous blogs, this Erap conviction will not create the desired effects, which is a revolutionary situation. Erap, despite his popularity, is a spent force. People will not go to the streets just to protest his innocence. First, the masa is a disorganized and disparate lot. They don't have credible mass leaders. They don't have the money to mobilize themselves. And why is that?

My deep throat says that Erap and his family were really expecting a not guilty verdict. That's why they really did'nt pour money to the Erap mass groups because they are expecting an acquittal. Analysts say that when Erap heard of the pronouncement of guilt, he was crest-fallen. There must have been a negotiated compromise between Erap and GMA. But, it did not materialize because, as expected, Erap exposed his weak armor again and allowed GMA and his minions to bastardize him again.

Erap will really not pour his millions to support a coup against GMA because (a) his wealth has been dissipated due to these trials and (b) he's too dumb and afraid of GMA. Yes, Dorothy, your favorite Asiong Salonga is really like that in real life.

The coup will never materialize now because they are fast losing their benefactors. However, I bet my bottom dollar that: (1) this coup, if this happens, will be in October. This will be triggered by the Senate investigations coupled with an Erap appeal; and (2) Erap will be transferred to Muntinlupa by this time. These two events will eventuall create an upswing of support for a move to change the GMA administration