Esperon is sure to be extended

Reports are being published about the possible extension of Esperon's term. The AFP Chief of Staff will retire from service on February and there are persistent reports of him being extended by the president. On the ground, people including his wife are campaigning for his extension. Other generals are waiting in the wings, but I believe that they are bound to wait much longer since there are indications that GMA will extend the general's term of service.

Surely, since politics is involved in this, there are some things that will happen to justify an Esperon extension. First, people close to him will test the ground so to speak and launch a PR campaign for him. This is happening now with the sudden increase of news articles about his impending retirement. Second, incidents concerning peace and order will occur possibly in January and extending up to the 1st week of February "necessitating" an extension of the AFP Chief of Staff's term. And third, these incidents would probably involve destabilization to force GMA to decide on Esperon's fate sooner than later.

Esperon is the longest serving general under the Arroyo administration. His administration has been the most violent so far, punctuated by numerous human rights violations.

Possible scenarios

People close to him will definitely use the "Magdalo threat" bogey to force GMA to decide for an extension. This early, there are signs that the AFP is quietly containing the threat by the release of 53 Magdalo soldiers. Obviously, the AFP knows already that there are new recruits from the military due to the Peninsula incident and its only a matter of time before another bigger incident occurs.

What is certain

Certainly, expect some fireworks to happen before the New Year extending up to the first week of January. First in the agenda would possibly be the PMA homecoming celebration which is sure to happen before the year ends? Second, reports will increase about this growing dissent from civil society groups due to the increasing corrupt practices under this administration. A struggle between two groups are happening and it will just be a matter of time before this blows over.

For now, let's celebrate Christmas and look forward to a new order by 2008.