De-fanging Mrs. Arroyo And the Issue of Succession

Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is being de-fanged. There are two critical issues which confronts Mrs. Arroyo---a suitable replacement for the soon-to-be retiring Supreme Court Chief Justice and of course, the post of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Two critical posts, too little time yet too destabilizing to say the least.

If you look at it, these symbols of democracy are now being put to the supreme test. We speak of Justice here and of the symbol of State Power, two pillars which democracy rests.

Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno will be retiring five days after the May 10, 2010 elections. The Judicial and Bar Council (JBC) has started the process of selection. However, there are two (2) opposing views, which all rest on just one (1) proposition---whether or not to allow Mrs. Arroyo to exercise her executive prerogative on the choice of Puno's replacement.

All four presidentiables---Noynoy Aquino, Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro, Manny Villar and Richard Gordon--all opposed the proposition of the president exercising her powers on this one. All these fine gentlemen know that this will surely destabilize the current political situation.

As we speak, people from all persuasions are convincing the Chief Executive to desist from appointing a new Chief of Staff. Two months from now, AFP Chief of Staff General Victor Ibrado will be retiring and this brings to light certain accusations that Mrs. Arroyo's favorite lapdog, AFP vice chief General Bangit is being groomed to replace Ibrado.

These issues actually rest on just two choices for Mrs. Arroyo. The first choice is will she act like she's still in power by forcing these issues and showing the Filipino People that she's still a force to contend with? Or really accept the fact that she's now a lame duck president and everyone is just waiting for her to retire?

If Mrs. Arroyo exercises her powers and makes a wrong decision, meaning, force the issue of naming an interim Chief Justice and appoint her man to the top AFP post, this will send a wrong signal to all political forces and even foreign observers whom I just happen to know and met several occasions in the past---that Mrs. Arroyo intends to still play politics and flex her muscles inspite of the lack of adequate force and power.

This will surely re-activate all forces who suspect Mrs. Arroyo's real intentions of not really and seriously making herself scarce and inevitably, destabilize the entire political situation.

Seriously, Mrs. Arroyo's time as a serious political player has all but lapsed. Time has caught up with her.

If Mrs. Arroyo makes a wrong move, she will weaken not just the Institutions of Justice and of State Power but of the Office of the President itself. She has mocked these institutions for nine years and definitely, with the elections just four months away, people will not allow her to continue her ways.

If she commits a wrong move, Gloria will not be able to recover and it will even justify an extra-constitutional move against her, since she still poses a direct threat to the very institutions of Philippine democracy.

More than this though, this highlights the grave problem of succession.

Unlike other countries, we do not have a very clear policy on succession. This grey area in our Constitution creates a self-destabilizing situation.

Esperon's fate--DOTC Chief

Its confirmed. GMA will NOT, I say, WILL NOT EXTEND ESPERON'S TERM. This was confirmed by one of my sources at the palace. There's a twist however. Esperon is said to be replacing former PNP chief and now DOTC Secretary Mendoza. Yes, some of the palace hawks are giving the gauntlet to Mendo. The loyal DOTC secretary who has done a good job cleaning house, is said to be on his way out.

Yano is the new AFP Chief of Staff, one of Arroyo's closest advisers said. Arroyo reportedly gave Esperon a verbal dressing down just recently. Esperon reportedly shouted at Arroyo for not extending his term. The incident happened last Friday when Arroyo called Esperon to her office at the palace. Esperon allegedly threatened the president that he'll side with the anti-Arroyo groups. Arroyo was unfazed, knowing fully well that no group will ever get Esperon in their side.

So, its final--Esperon out, Yano in.

Snipnets: Clashes

Clashes of NPA and government troops

Two rebels died while scores of soldiers were injured in a running battle between government troops and NPA rebels in Pila Laguna. The AFP said that the CPP-NPA-NDF is slowly weakening. How will they explain this? It seems that the rebels are closing in Metro Manila? Previous to this, NPA rebels attacked a convoy of soldiers in Aurora Quezon which led to the death of some soldiers. Are they really being weakened? Or this pronouncement is just braggadocio on the part of government?

Esperon finding his relevance

AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Hermogenes Esperon said that he expects the CPP-NPA-NDF to become "irrelevant" by 2010. Basing on what he's been doing and his boss fucking up the economy, this prediction will again, fail. Remember, last 2002, they said that they'll succeed in decimating the "enemy" by 2008. Its already 2008 and still the insurgents are becoming stronger and more relevant. Is this Esperon's way of actually justifying his relevance and possible extension of term of service? Yup. You guess right.

Two camps, Two Coups

This noise is deafening. Reports are highly reliable. Two groups within the AFP are trying to neutralize each other. One group is reportedly composed of Esperon's men; the others, the Patriots. Who will win the hearts and minds of the soldiers? Last December, a survey was conducted which showed that the Patriots have the support of at least 30 percent of the AFP. This is an improvement of a previous survey where it says that only 10% support the Patriots and 10% support the administration. Now, the configuration has changed.

The question is--who will launch the first one? I believe that groups aligned with Esperon and Gonzales will try to launch a coup and point to the Magdalo as a culprit. Obviously, Esperon will crush them and earn the extension which he wants. This is dangerous. And only Arroyo is to be blamed for this.

Bhutto style

Ellen Tordesillas wrote about an alleged plan to assassinate former president Joseph Estrada. Some would brush this off. I dare say that this report should not be glossed over. The AFP and the PNP should investigate this. Why? Because if these evil men succeed in their plan, it will plunge the country into a state of perpetual destabilization, leading to a civil war. If ever some hawks in the Cabinet has this plan in their nimble brains, they better abandon this. They are digging their own graves.

39 Years of Revolutionary Struggle

Tomorrow, December 26, the Communist Party of the Philippines will be celebrating its 39th anniversary. CPP Chairman Armando Liwanag said that the revolutionary movement, the longest insurgency in the world, next to the Shining Path, continues to gain strength. The AFP issued a statement which said that the CPP-NPA-NDF has lost considerable troop strength from a high of 7,000 to a little above the 6,000. This, the AFP says, owes to the current administration's continued armed campaign to decimate the CPP-NPA-NDF by 2010.

Bold words, bad actions.

Obviously, the AFP cannot really kill the CPP-NPA-NDF. First, the AFP continues to have a very low trust rating with the people due to allegations of human rights violations. Second, the AFP is suffering setbacks after setbacks in the battlefield. The Marines, the creme de la creme of the armed establishment suffers from low morale. The corps suffers from battle fatigue and morale due to continued defeats against the Muslim mujaheddins in Sulu, Basilan and some parts of Mindanao. And third, in other theaters of war in the Philippine archipelago, the Army has suffered numerous deaths due to ambuscades and attacks on its camps.

The Reality

The reality is, the CPP-NPA-NDF will continue to exist even beyond Arroyo. For as long as the AFP remains under the weak leadership of an illegitimate leader, there will be major defeats in the field. Soldiers will die by the hundreds and more by the wayside. This is because the CPP-NPA-NDF and other insurgent groups continue to innovate. Note the message by Joma:

Sison said the New People’s Army, the armed wing of the CPP, is "gaining strength and advancing."

"It is increasing its platoon-size and company-size offensives and is looking forward to the building of mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity and to the development of relatively stable base areas on the basis of the guerrilla fronts," Sison said in a statement. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, 25 December 2007)

Note this statement--the CPP-NPA-NDF is building mobile and more effective regional centers of gravity--meaning it is shifting from a regularized, standardized army setup to a more attuned guerilla setup. What it means is that the CPP-NPA-NDF will try to do some insurrectionary activities which punctuate its actions during the Marcos dictatorship. Expect more assassinations, bombings and other urban insurrectionary actions against the Establishment. This is indicative or an indirect admission that the revolutionary struggle should involve more urban attacks than being concentrated in the countrysides.

More about security issues for 2008 for the Philippines in my next blog.

Esperon is sure to be extended

Reports are being published about the possible extension of Esperon's term. The AFP Chief of Staff will retire from service on February and there are persistent reports of him being extended by the president. On the ground, people including his wife are campaigning for his extension. Other generals are waiting in the wings, but I believe that they are bound to wait much longer since there are indications that GMA will extend the general's term of service.

Surely, since politics is involved in this, there are some things that will happen to justify an Esperon extension. First, people close to him will test the ground so to speak and launch a PR campaign for him. This is happening now with the sudden increase of news articles about his impending retirement. Second, incidents concerning peace and order will occur possibly in January and extending up to the 1st week of February "necessitating" an extension of the AFP Chief of Staff's term. And third, these incidents would probably involve destabilization to force GMA to decide on Esperon's fate sooner than later.

Esperon is the longest serving general under the Arroyo administration. His administration has been the most violent so far, punctuated by numerous human rights violations.

Possible scenarios

People close to him will definitely use the "Magdalo threat" bogey to force GMA to decide for an extension. This early, there are signs that the AFP is quietly containing the threat by the release of 53 Magdalo soldiers. Obviously, the AFP knows already that there are new recruits from the military due to the Peninsula incident and its only a matter of time before another bigger incident occurs.

What is certain

Certainly, expect some fireworks to happen before the New Year extending up to the first week of January. First in the agenda would possibly be the PMA homecoming celebration which is sure to happen before the year ends? Second, reports will increase about this growing dissent from civil society groups due to the increasing corrupt practices under this administration. A struggle between two groups are happening and it will just be a matter of time before this blows over.

For now, let's celebrate Christmas and look forward to a new order by 2008.