Oakwood could have a part three

Defense secretary Teodoro made a categorical remark today. He said that there is no reason for the military to launch another coup or Oakwood again. If something similar happens after the SONA, then, Teodoro surmised, it could be the result of "selfish politicking."

Today marks the anniversary of the Oakwood mutiny. Five years had past and still the reasons for that rebellion exist. Nothing changed except probably the reversal of political and career fortunes of those involved in the failed putsch. Two of the five "Magdalo" leaders have decided to go carve a career out of the service, with one dedicating his life to his

 Christian beliefs while the other decided to go the NGO route. Others, like Senator Antonio Trillianes IV, continues to remain defiant.

However, Teodoro and the military establishment will definitely not admit that there are a considerable number of people who are beginning to entertain thoughts of going the extra-constitutional route. More and more people are lending their expertise and skills to create the vision of Oakwood. These people are being convinced of the viability of armed action against this government because of the government's inability (or inaction) to address the core issues that led to the mutiny. The longer this government tries to sweep the dirt under the palace rug, the more it creates a revolutionary condition.

Many analysts say that if the Oakwood mutiny happened now, it could have succeeded in toppling the government.  Such a revolutionary situation exists more than ever now than before. You have a dissatisfied constituency. Hunger and poverty are widespread and even affecting the lives of the middle class. You have a more militant civil society led by youth groups and you have a church which is starting to get active again in anti-government initiatives.

What's more--you have potential groups that could finance such an enterprise. You have wealthy cacique and landlord families who risk losing their lands if government implements a BJE (Bangsamoro Juridical Entity).

 You have very powerful lobby groups whose fortunes will be affected should an entity administer these Bangsamoro lands. And finally, you have foreign governments that could lend support for a coup given the already strained international relations and image of the Arroyo administration. 

Such a situation exists now and with a weak state being administered now by Arroyo, hawks could exploit this and create a Thai-type of action. A Thai-type action could lead to Arroyo going on exile or worst, incarcerated.

However, what's lacking is an explosive event that would trigger such an uprising. The times are very interesting given that Arroyo is facing a very hostile citizenry. Even if Arroyo and her ilk consider imposing martial rule, such a scenario will just worsen the situation and definitely will fail because both local and international support will definitely be absent. 

Two scenarios--a coup could be launched by forces within the palace or outside of it. If this group within Arroyo moves against her, that could potentially spark violence. However, if an outside group moves against her and neutralize the other group, it could result to a normalization of the situation since this group is much stronger and enjoys a wider base of support.