The Trillianes Version and his role as Aquino's choir boy

"natutuwa ako pero magulo utak ko"

It pains to see Senator Antonio Trillianes the fourth acting like a choir boy before millions of his fellow Filipinos yesterday.

I don't exactly know what "version" of a Trillianes appeared before the Senate inquiry into the DAP yesterday.

Was it the "reformist" Trillianes who made a banner and a splash when he made Manila Peninsula his fort and last stand-off? Or that Trillianes who even threatened to unleash those implanted bombs at Oakwood, in protest over Arroyo's acts?

Or, was it a "constitutional" Trillianes who goes around town, defending a program which has already been viewed and interpreted by a co-equal branch of government as "unconstitutional"?

Or, a "politico" shaking hands, kissing babies and promising every Juan dela Cruz salvation the minute they elect him?

Or, a promise breaker who announces before the world that he will only become a Senator once and will not anymore seek any re-election or will not even gun for a higher post?

I sincerely do not know.

Maybe, it was the "Trillianes" who once dabbled in defense contracts as an AFP officer? or maybe, just maybe, it was not the Trillianes the fourth speaking, but the Trillianes the fifth and the sixth?

Trillianes is a disgrace. He has prostituted himself before the elite, and has enjoyed the perks of power. Trillianes is one of those who benefitted immensely from both DAP and PDAF.

I think this is a drunk Trillianes speaking before us, drunk by power and relishing every single moment of his role as a legislator.

What has become of the "idealist"? That young man who energized the country with his avowed promises to lead them towards true reforms?

What happened to the "revolutionist" who once rocked the very foundations of this aristocracy with his shouts of change?

Now, he serves as an apologist, a sick mouthpiece of a sick order, a man who tries to justify an illicit act by using that oft-repeated line of "good intentions"?

2013 Mid-Term Elections in Philippines: Who gets the six remaining senatorial slots and why?

Analysing the senatorial configurations now, and many observers see only six remaining slots for newbies, or those wanting to become senators. Candidates are vying for 12 seats, but many seemed to have relegated the first six seats to incumbent senators, namely: Chiz Escudero, Greg Honasan, Loren Legarda, Koko Pimentel, Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillianes IV.

Three things why these re-electionists are shoo-ins: one, they have an enormous kitty to use in their re-election (2) they have a deep grassroots organisation and (3) they are in power and will definitely use this as leverage in political arrangements particularly at the LGU level.

Escudero, for example, has a wide network of supporters nationwide. His grassroots organisers are dedicated ones, and he has several arrangements with people's organisations and NGOs. Aside from monies coming from his business backers, Escudero has his own funds as Senator.

This is similar with Loren Legarda's case. Legarda has her vaulted LGU network to rely on. She, like Escudero, has many business backers, including Danding Cojuangco. She has a vast network of military men backing her up, most of them occupying sensitive positions in the military establishment.

It's a toss-up for the number one slot between Escudero and Legarda. However, many political observers see some groups campaigning against an Escudero rather than a Legarda.

It is common knowledge among political circles that Escudero is gunning for the 2016 presidency. If he gets elected overwhelmingly and gets the no. 1 spot, Escudero may well see himself being nominated for the presidency come 2016. A Legarda win, however, is safe for all parties, since many believe that Legarda has abandoned her presidential ambitions already. Legarda will likewise, benefit from a no. 1 ranking since the vice presidential post is still seen as vacant now.

Sources say, Escudero is toying with the idea of running either as President or Vice President come 2016. If he plays his cards right, Escudero may yet clinch what he hope for. Escudero is perceived as a safe bet in 2016, between a comebacking Marcosian force and an ageing political operator.


As the years go by, voters are becoming less and less informed about the "historical legacies" of a Marcos or a Binay. Binay's strength lies in his vaulted LGU support. If his political supporters lose their posts in 2013, Binay's chances will be extremely compromised.


Escudero's chances of winning 2016 is not as far-fetched as what some believe. He may yet be positioned as a winnable alternative between Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos and Vice President Jejomar Binay. Three years from now, the electoral landscape will be extremely different. There would be more younger voters, and getting their support will be crucial in a presidential contest. The political baggages linked with the brandnames of a Marcos and a Binay will bear heavy, and voters will surely gun for a perceived younger candidate.

This phenomenon has been observed in the election of Noynoy Aquino in 2010, when, ranged against political heavyweights such as Villar and Estrada, Aquino won riding on the crest of a change movement composed of very young voters.

Will we see another Escudero-Legarda tandem in 2016? The future is bright.

For another Marcos to clinch the presidency, Bongbong has to overcome three (3) challenges: first, titans in the business community who will still be in power come 2016, and still harboring ill feelings against the former Marcos dictatorship (2) government officials who previously fought the Marcos regime and, like several others, still carry an oppositive stance against the Marcoses and (3) a political bureaucracy uncertain of a Bongbong Marcos administration.

What Bongbong is going for him is the younger voters fascination about him, personally. Like Escudero, Bongbong's image and reputation among young and old voters is pretty impressive. In the last 2010 elections, we saw Bongbong Marcos' supporters almost everywhere, even in far-flung barangays.

If you ask me if Bongbong Marcos is ripe for the presidency, I will tell you straight that his chances, ranged against a Binay will be slim. He needs more time romancing the LGU heavyweights in every province and city. If Bongbong does his homework and participate actively this year in electing his supporters to critical voter-rich areas, we may yet see a Marcos in Malacanang come three years time.

However, ranged against an Escudero, Bongbong will probably provide a good fight, since voters perceive these two as fresh and young, and the only factor which will provide a political advantage would have to be LGU support, which, if this time is the reckoning, would probably be equal.

If Escudero gets top billing this year and continues to avoid being embroiled in any major controversy, it would be a shoo-in for him to the presidency, and even see administration backing come 2016.

And what about a Mar Roxas presidential campaign? If it's for the Vice-Presidency, Roxas is a sure winner.

Greg Honasan and Antonio Trillianes IV share the same constituency. They have the funds to fund their respective campaigns. However, their victories now depend on how organized their respective support groups are. They have the reformist groups on their side, but several information I got from sources reveal that their organisation is not as solid as it was several years ago.

The Magdalo organisation, for one, is fragmented at the grassroots, so Trillianes IV needs additional support from the Liberal Party to be able to win. What makes it difficult for Trillianes is, he has a Senate President as a political nemesis, someone so deeply entrenched not just in the LGU level but moreso, in the business community, that I am sure, Trillianes IV will find it extremely hard to shore funds from the business community.

The Trillianes IV brandname however, remains high in the Pulse Asia survey compared with other candidates. That was last June 2012, months prior to Trillianes IV highly public fiasco on China and his controversial tiff with Enrile. I fear that his ranking would be far lower in February than previous surveys. Trillianes will have a hard climb to victory this mid-term elections.

Honasan, meanwhile, has solidified his status in Philippine societal circles, but previous electoral contests show that Honasan's political brandname is not as formidable as it seems. He nearly lost two previous elections. He got his post

Is Senator Trillianes breaking his vow not to campaign for re-election?

It is not bad to disagree with a friend's opinions. For one, disagreements always lead to a distillation of an idea. Every single idea should be refined to its maximum limits so that we give birth to a new one. 


A few days ago, Senator Antonio Trillianes IV said that there is no disgruntled soldiers in the AFP right now because the conditions that made them militate against the existing government several years ago, " has ceased to exist". Housing and allowances have been given to those in need and rights are respected.


Seems like this statement also tries to impress upon us that the entire population is in a state of fulfillment. The needs of the soldiers are not different from the needs of the rest of the Filipino citizenry.


I have always believed that things are in a state of agitation every single minute, because things change as fast as a tachyon. We are just in an equilibrium because deep seated frustrations stay underground, and the State is managing things and undertaking crisis management. 


I understand where Trillianes is coming from. One, he is a re-electionist politician. He needs the resources of government for re-election. Two, Trillianes is now looking into military affairs as an outsider. He is more like a politician than a soldier-leader. Trillianes is now getting information on the state of the institution from his contacts within, and without probably knowing the true pulse of the soldiers.


By the way, I remember what Trillianes promised when he ran as a senator several years ago. He promised not to run for re-election. Why is he now swallowing his principles in exchange for more time to play politics?


I fear the future of this country. We have been swallowed whole by this decrepit system. There is no more voice out there, telling things as they are and asking people for action. What we have right now is an acquiesent society, ready to accept what is being peddled to them without really digging deep and ascertaining the veracity of these "truths".


A so-called democratic society without dissent is no different from a totalitarian society.

My loyalty is to my country, not to Pnoy

I don't know about you, but whenever someone asks me where my loyalties lie as a Patriot, I'll tell them that my loyalty is with the Filipino People. 


I may agree with most of the things President Noynoy Aquino does or I may even declare that my thoughts are often more Socialist than any other, but when loyalties are being asked, I declare that I am loyal to the Filipino People, not to someone or some political or ideological aggrupation. 


That's why many people are somewhat puzzled by the twin announcements of Generals Danny Lim and Senator Antonio Trillianes IV. General Lim and Trillianes were granted freedom by the courts after President Aquino signed an amnesty proclamation for them. A few days later, Lim was quoted as saying (in a RAM reunion) that he will cooperate with the present administration. Trillianes told the same thing yesterday. Trillianes admitted being a partner of the Aquino administration and will stay as not as an outside critic but as an active partner of the new administration. 


I often wonder why I remain as an active revolutionist. Simple: I belong to the masses and am part of the masses. I was not born with a proverbial silver spoon in my mouth. I understand the condition of the Filipino Masses. That's why whatever I write here, crooked, funny, interesting or just plain simple here, I write it as that so that I may be understood not just by the elites or the middle class who reads this blog (thanks!), but moreso by those who belong to my class. 


In fact, I don't need to tell the masses that they are oppressed. They know it already. I am writing stuff so that the middle and the upper classes may clearly understand the condition of the poor folks in the ground. 


And I am under the impression that these two highly esteemed Patriots and gentlemen at that, also took the least taken road for just one cause---the Cause of the poor Filipinos. 


Many people identified themselves with the Cause of the Bagong Katipunan and its predecessors, the RAM and the YOU, because their dream of seeing a New Philippines arise from the old, is a "dream that shall never die". 


Many believe in the cause of the Bagong Katipunan because it reflects the age-old yearning of the Filipino to see this country become great again.


Politically, one links or ascribes himself with this administration because, for one, this administration strives or at least tries to be progressive--something which previous administrations never even thought of being. 


Pnoy, for all his so-called "neophyte blunders", at least blunders or errs on the side of Right, instead of wrong. Others like Arroyo blunders on the side of Wrong and immorality.


However, one thing that I often ask myself is this---where will the struggle go and up to when will we, those who want to regain the glory of this Country, struggle? 


The answer lies as simple as the sun sets in the West and rises in the East--it is when the opportunities present in this society become equal--when the poor and ordinary Person working or non-working would be able to say that he enjoys the same rights as those working and filthy rich. 


When one Filipino can proudly say that his country belongs to the elites, when his country takes care of its people the same way as the People take care of their government, that, I think is the sign, of the setting of the revolutionary Sun. And that scene, I pray, happens during my lifetime. 

JI, MILF and the Bangsamoros who strive towards Jihad

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Analysis of the Phil Situation 4: The Military

AFP Chief of Staff General Alex Yano has, time and again, said that the military organisation will not participate in the political intramurals. Yano said the loyalty of the military wrests in the sovereign power. Now, who is the sovereign power? It is the Filipino People, not one person.

Now, in the military organisation, the ruling class is PMA Class 1976, composed of Yano, PNP Chief of Staff Jesus Verzosa and his command officers. Now, the penultimate question--will Yano move against those who will try to unseat Mrs. Arroyo? Last year's November caper of Trillianes showed Yano sending his troops against the Magdalos. Will he do this again if challenged by younger PMA officers?

Posing to challenge the PMA Class 1976 is the officer corps of PMA Class 1978. Sources say this Class is actually behind the smear campaign of PNP Chief Verzosa and is allegedly maneuvering to get the AFP and PNP plum posts in 2009. This class is wont on smearing the integrity of Yano since most of them, allegedly, are afraid of their upperclassman.

What political observers fail to realize is that if attempts to unseat Arroyo fail this year, the possibility of an extended, even a totalitarian regime under Arroyo exists in 2009 and beyond, what with the PMA Class 1978 serving as Arroyo's praetorian guards. This is entirely possible given that Arroyo's henchmen are solidifying almost all institutions of government behind Arroyo's. There are talks that PMA Class 1978 will hold the distinction of being Arroyo's version of the Rolex generals (since Arroyo is an honorary member of this PMA class. Many members of the class are loyal and very close to the First Couple).

Question---will other classes stand up and oppose this from happening? We already sacrificed our lives to oust a dictator in 1986. Let's do it again to prevent an aspiring one from getting her way.

The Battle in December

Two bishops have called upon the people to join the mammoth rally this Sunday, November 30, 2008. Heeding the clarion call, the Makati Business Club (MBC) and other civil society groups are also calling for people to go to the streets and protest the current efforts of this administration to extend Gloria's term.

A few days prior, detained Senator Antonio Trillianes called upon the people to support the impeachment complaint against Gloria. Saying it's the last legal option to oust the Pinay anti-Christ, Trillianes says it is still possible for the democratic soldiers to "intervene" into this political mess and rectify these errors wrought against the people by this evil administration.

Question that everybody is asking--will there be a realization of the People's dream for the ouster of Gloria? Rumours say, a big event will happen on the 28th of November, the day when Gloria comes back from her Latin American trip. Others say, the 30th of this month will signal a week-long "Revolution of Hope" and would culminate with Gloria's ouster.

Observing what's happening, I think that the thirtieth will just be the proverbial first shout that would culminate to Gloria's eventual ouster before January 2009. There are very auspicious signs which point to a weakening of Gloria's defenses by December 2008. The apex of the people's sentiments may be reached next month as Congress formalizes the killing of the impeachment, a symbolic act which could trigger widespread dissillusionment and cause the justification of a December affair.

Or, it could be prolonged to January of next year. If the forces against Gloria succeeds in ousting her in January or weaken her pro-cha-cha forces in the first quarter of 2009, kiss charter change goodbye. People behind Gloria will definitely not be able to implement their dastardly plot in summer, since there will not be sufficient time to effect charter change.

Unbeknownest to Gloria, the more anti-charter change proponents delay the hearing of the cha-cha proposals, the lesser the prospects for Gloria to extend her term. Surely, they cannot ram cha-cha in June of 2009 simply because Congressmen will be busy by then for their re-election campaign. So, the critical months begins in December and ends in March 2009 or the month where Congress adjourns. However, there is another card which Gloria's minions are contemplating and that is the emergency power card. These Malacanang hawks will try to implement black operations, will try to portray lawlessness in the Metro and in Mindanao and justify it. Like charter change, however, they are also pressed for time since they need to muster enough support from the AFP to do this. Surely, the defense secretary will not be a party to this, since Danding's party, if reports are to be believed, is aligning itself with the JDV-FVR faction in Lakas.

Oakwood could have a part three

Defense secretary Teodoro made a categorical remark today. He said that there is no reason for the military to launch another coup or Oakwood again. If something similar happens after the SONA, then, Teodoro surmised, it could be the result of "selfish politicking."

Today marks the anniversary of the Oakwood mutiny. Five years had past and still the reasons for that rebellion exist. Nothing changed except probably the reversal of political and career fortunes of those involved in the failed putsch. Two of the five "Magdalo" leaders have decided to go carve a career out of the service, with one dedicating his life to his

 Christian beliefs while the other decided to go the NGO route. Others, like Senator Antonio Trillianes IV, continues to remain defiant.

However, Teodoro and the military establishment will definitely not admit that there are a considerable number of people who are beginning to entertain thoughts of going the extra-constitutional route. More and more people are lending their expertise and skills to create the vision of Oakwood. These people are being convinced of the viability of armed action against this government because of the government's inability (or inaction) to address the core issues that led to the mutiny. The longer this government tries to sweep the dirt under the palace rug, the more it creates a revolutionary condition.

Many analysts say that if the Oakwood mutiny happened now, it could have succeeded in toppling the government.  Such a revolutionary situation exists more than ever now than before. You have a dissatisfied constituency. Hunger and poverty are widespread and even affecting the lives of the middle class. You have a more militant civil society led by youth groups and you have a church which is starting to get active again in anti-government initiatives.

What's more--you have potential groups that could finance such an enterprise. You have wealthy cacique and landlord families who risk losing their lands if government implements a BJE (Bangsamoro Juridical Entity).

 You have very powerful lobby groups whose fortunes will be affected should an entity administer these Bangsamoro lands. And finally, you have foreign governments that could lend support for a coup given the already strained international relations and image of the Arroyo administration. 

Such a situation exists now and with a weak state being administered now by Arroyo, hawks could exploit this and create a Thai-type of action. A Thai-type action could lead to Arroyo going on exile or worst, incarcerated.

However, what's lacking is an explosive event that would trigger such an uprising. The times are very interesting given that Arroyo is facing a very hostile citizenry. Even if Arroyo and her ilk consider imposing martial rule, such a scenario will just worsen the situation and definitely will fail because both local and international support will definitely be absent. 

Two scenarios--a coup could be launched by forces within the palace or outside of it. If this group within Arroyo moves against her, that could potentially spark violence. However, if an outside group moves against her and neutralize the other group, it could result to a normalization of the situation since this group is much stronger and enjoys a wider base of support.

Teodoro--RP's New Obama?

Barack Obama is now the official Democratic presidential candidate, besting White America's finest, Hillary Clinton. This is phenomenal considering that, four years ago, Obama was a relative unknown. What's the secret of Obama's campaign?

First, Obama's handlers avoided the tendency of traditional politics by giving the campaign some "inspiring" taglines. That's genius. Most Americans are depressed due to the high costs of food and fuel. They need someone who'll inspire them with the vibrancy of youth and new ideas. Obama represented that. He was packaged as the Black version of JFK (John F. Kennedy), armed with wit and a serious mien. His words are always emotion-driven. You'll see and hear his inspiring words on traditional and new media.

That campaign was based on lessons in political history. In US history, men of such character emerge whenever America encounters extreme depression, such as what's happening now. Western societies need men of substance whenever they face tremendous socio-economic challenges. Obama filled that void.

Now, can we produce our own Obama? Yes. We already did.

In the 2004 elections, a veritable unknown in the person of Senator Antonio Trillianes IV emerged as one of the top senatorial winners. He did not campaign. His handlers used the internet as his launching pad. He did not use any traditional method of campaigning, just a few posters and stickers here and there. However, the electorate heard of him through traditional media, what with his digs at Gloria. The people loved it and voted for him, a vote which some political analysts say is a vote of anger against the prevailing dispensation.

However, is it possible for Trillianes to campaign for the presidency using non-traditional tactics? That's possible. With more than 13 million Filipinos going online daily, that's a huge constituency. The internet is the most cost-effective tool in launching any brand or product or even electoral campaigns.

There's a catch though. Trillianes is a realist and would probably think twice before dipping his fingers in the presidential pool. if Trillianes is not interested, then, who could possibly be his alternate?

I'll give my Singdollars to anybody who'll oppose Gilbert Teodoro, our defense secretary. Of all the candidates out there, Teodoro is the singular person who can probably inspire us and rouse us from mediocracy and apathy.

Teodoro is young, has a vision for the country and has that electrifying personality. He's one of the most hard-working members of Gloria's mafia gang. Reason why people in the civil society hesitate to go full-blast against Gloria is the fact that some well-meaning people continue to work their asses off and that includes Teodoro. Teodoro is a stark contrast to the likes of Agriculture secretary Arthur Yap or Energy secretary Reyes, who are publicity-hungry without concrete accomplishments. Teodoro exemplifies an Obama and has the potential of getting the people's nod come election time.

I believe that early campaigners such as Loren, Mar, Cheez, Villar and Noli will eventually neutralize themselves. They will turn irrelevant, leading the way for Teodoro to shine.

If the same tactics employed by Trillianes in getting the senate post be applied to Teodoro, there's a strong chance for him to win. Some people think that he does not have the physical strength to go on a national campaign since he has asthma or some respiratory ailment. To hell with it. Teodoro can always sit in his chair and ponder on solutions to national issues while his campaigners dominate the discussion sphere thru traditional and new media. You'll be surprised at the results.