Scenario of Martial Rule in Philippines

Let's presume that Oppositionist Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay is right by his postulations that this government will declare a State of Emergency in Mindanao which will eventually lead to martial rule. And let's presume that, indeed, Arroyo succeeds in making this happen. So, what now?

Obviously, it would exacerbate the Mindanao situation and lead to a long, drawn-out guerilla war. A guerilla war might take a longer time to quell unlike conventional warfare where regular forces are involved and positions are solid and identifiable. In a guerilla war, rebels have the advantage of terrain and opportunity. They are in strategic advantage because they can strike anywhere at anytime. Military forces will just spend time and precious funds chasing shadows while rebel forces plan debilitating strikes to marginalize and isolate their enemy from supply lines and other sources of support. 

While this is happening, anti-war forces within the capital in collusion with anti-Gloria forces will step up their propaganda attacks. This will weaken the Arroyo regime and worsen its already bad international image. The situation will come to a decisive point when news of casualties and human refugees flood the airwaves. The state will harden its position, leading to more totalitarian and repressive actions against its citizens. 

As this situation worsens, demoralization will affect the AFP organization. Tactical and strategic losses in the battlefield of war will definitely swell the ranks of demoralized troops. This will lead to pockets of dissent within the organization which will eventually weaken it, thus affecting the tenor and direction of the war against the Bangsamoro rebels.

Net--if the Mindanao situation turns nasty and forces government to assume drastic measures such as martial rule or a state of emergency--this would only worsen the situation in Mindanao. Probably, that would benefit Arroyo whose lust to extend her power remains. Yet, on the overall, war will definitely affect everybody and will further exacerbate the already hopeless economic and political situation we are in. 

Will we allow Arroyo to do this to us--lead us to further perdition?