Davao blast--part of destabilization against Aquino administration

Sources in the intelligence community revealed that they are investigating the information they got which says that what happened in Davao City was the handiwork of rebel soldiers, not the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

These rebel soldiers, according to some sources, are composed of former rebels from the eighties, former RAM and former Magdalos. There is no definite reason for the grouping except that these soldiers are mostly active members of the military establishment.

I am not entirely surprised by this information.

For one, the Aquino administration has incurred enemies, some of them, involved in big Business. There are people who were affected by the wishy-washy policies of the administration.

Second, the masses are indeed angry at this point. Third, this incendiary situation is made even more worse by a succession of natural disasters which affect not just the lives of millions, but wreck the economies of affected provinces.

Lastly, there is really a raging rebellion in the South which is getting worse by the minute. Members of the MILF just attacked North Cotabato, and like what their MNLF brothers did in Zamboanga City, occupied cities and used hostages as human shields.

The first reason is expected---you can't please everybody. As for the people's anger, if this is mishandled, this will have serious political repercussions.

The human toll in Zamboanga is just slowly enfolding and is just the beginning of woes.

The Real Costs of the Mindanao War

Last September 7, 2008, the Philippine Air Force reportedly bombed a village in Maguindanao, killing civilians, including a pregnant woman. The AFP and the PAF tried to deny that there was indiscriminate bombing. The official AFP statement: these civilians were caught in a crossfire.
Yeah, they were. These civilians were in the air, caught between a flying attack Bronco and MILF rebels firing in the air. Look at these photos sent by a friend. See whose telling the truth.

How about this pregnant woman? What do you think killed her?                             

Was it bullets sprayed by soldiers or those of the Bangsamoro rebels?

Or shrapnels from a bomb which the Air Force dropped there? You'll be the judge. As far as the medico-legal report says, her throat was smashed when bomb shrapnels hit her. 

What killed these kids? Are they just shrapnels or bullets? Were they caught in a crossfire as the AFP says they were? Or they were casualties in a stupid war sparked by a nincompoop of a president? 

Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro says the AFP still needs at least 80 billion to sustain the war against the Bangsamoro rebels. I ask Mr. Teodoro---how much more bombs will you authorize to drop on these communities in Mindanao? How many more rounds of ammo will you send flying to the direction of innocent civilians? How many mortar rounds would it possibly need for you and the entire government to force these Bangsamoro rebels to their knees? And how much more money do you need to rebuild these lives lost because of this insane war?

When will you and these Bangsamoro rebels stop?

History has shown that government spent billions and billions of pesos waging this decades-old war and it's still there. One thing I learned from history school---one bullet fired by both sides, additional month of war.

Scenario of Martial Rule in Philippines

Let's presume that Oppositionist Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay is right by his postulations that this government will declare a State of Emergency in Mindanao which will eventually lead to martial rule. And let's presume that, indeed, Arroyo succeeds in making this happen. So, what now?

Obviously, it would exacerbate the Mindanao situation and lead to a long, drawn-out guerilla war. A guerilla war might take a longer time to quell unlike conventional warfare where regular forces are involved and positions are solid and identifiable. In a guerilla war, rebels have the advantage of terrain and opportunity. They are in strategic advantage because they can strike anywhere at anytime. Military forces will just spend time and precious funds chasing shadows while rebel forces plan debilitating strikes to marginalize and isolate their enemy from supply lines and other sources of support. 

While this is happening, anti-war forces within the capital in collusion with anti-Gloria forces will step up their propaganda attacks. This will weaken the Arroyo regime and worsen its already bad international image. The situation will come to a decisive point when news of casualties and human refugees flood the airwaves. The state will harden its position, leading to more totalitarian and repressive actions against its citizens. 

As this situation worsens, demoralization will affect the AFP organization. Tactical and strategic losses in the battlefield of war will definitely swell the ranks of demoralized troops. This will lead to pockets of dissent within the organization which will eventually weaken it, thus affecting the tenor and direction of the war against the Bangsamoro rebels.

Net--if the Mindanao situation turns nasty and forces government to assume drastic measures such as martial rule or a state of emergency--this would only worsen the situation in Mindanao. Probably, that would benefit Arroyo whose lust to extend her power remains. Yet, on the overall, war will definitely affect everybody and will further exacerbate the already hopeless economic and political situation we are in. 

Will we allow Arroyo to do this to us--lead us to further perdition?

Mindanao War

As what we have feared, war became the consequence of the apparent `failure' of the peace talks between the government and the MILF. Casualties are mounting.  Destruction of property are affecting the local economy and media is reporting human rights violations left and right. 

Government says they are not going back to the peace table. So, does the MILF. What we have right now is a very critical situation that might affect overall economic growth. The NEDA downgraded GDP growth to a mere 5%. Next year, we expect a lower than average growth for the Philippines, to as little as 3-4%

Both camps are trying to picture these situations as "isolated incidents", but news on the ground shows otherwise. These are low-level, coordinated attacks meant for escalation. An escalation may happen after Ramadhan, hence, we expect further MILF attacks this year and possibly by next year should government refuse to go back to the nego table.

Do we have Islam-phobia?

The hawks in Malacanang are laughing themselves all the way to the bank. Their scheme of creating chaos in an otherwise peaceful country has affected almost everybody in this tiny yet disenfranchised Republic of Southeast Asia. Everybody, I mean, just everybody has something to say about this imbroglio in Mindanao. Filipinos are passionately discussing things, as if it's a matter of life and death.

While my colleagues debate and write articles damning this Memorandum of Agreement to high heavens, we forget the plan of government to audit the books of the oil companies. That laudable plan has been put in the backburner, though, a few days back, that's the hottest coffee shop talk. Since things stand as it is, oil companies are sneakingly getting their way out of calls for a rollback. One big oil company says, it can only give a 50 cents rollback on diesel since it still has some "under recoveries". While, in its global headquarters, it reported a 7 billion peso profit (and still going up).

When the talk shifted to Mindanao, there seems to be an increase in impassioned talk. Why? Compared with the talk about higher fuel and food prices, this issue on Mindanao has been discussed more thoroughly as if everyone thinks that it's more important than the economy.

When its religious strife, Filipinos always strongly feel something about it. Why? Do we have a nationwide Islam-phobia? We always write that these Muslims deserve our attention, but when it comes to granting them independence, we take whatever views we have and say, we don't support it and it's better for them to just have autonomy?

When can we possibly transcend this Islam-phobia thing? That's what I was saying all along--Filipinos must be consistent. If we really consider these Muslims as Filipinos, we must assimilate them into the prevailing culture. Or rather, we must accommodate their Islamic way into ours and co-exist. For if we fail to do this, we risk having all these calls of independence.

And, if we do care for them, why is Mindanao still a backward, underdeveloped and impoverished region? For decades, it has been left desolate by this government. It is rich in natural and human resources but remains as the poorest region among Philippine regions? Sometimes I feel that they deserve a better government, a government run by them, instead of those in Imperial Manila.

On the Liberation of the Bangsamoro People

On Tuesday, members of the government peace panel and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) will sign a historic deal. This deal will lead to the establishment of a Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), an entity which would grant sovereign rights to the MILF on "ancestral domain". The ancestral domain, in this case, covers parts of Zamboanga, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and Sulu. The GRP peace panel agreed to give the Bangsamoro political, economic and even police powers to the MILF under this deal.

This early, some hailed this as a landmark deal which could probably end the Moro secessionist struggle in Mindanao. Others, like traditional Moro families and wealthy Christian landowners, have registered their protests. They see the landmark deal as property encroachments which could potentially lead to more violence at the onset.

As PinoyObserver wrote some entries ago, this is just a start of the Bangsamoro struggle. After this, expect an escalation of violence among various groups with differing interests in Mindanao. Expect traditional wealthy caciques and traders like the Lobregats and the Pinons who have large tracts of arable and industrial lands, to protest. Expect a veritable civil war to erupt between "Moro royal families" and those belonging to the MILF because lands claimed by these royalties are to be included in the BJE territory.

Those claiming sovereignty under the Sultanate of Sulu will also rally against this deal. Under this deal, the present administrator of "Sultanate", which, to be honest, does not exist anymore due to the death of the legitimate heirs of the Sultan of Sulu, will definitely register his protest. He, along with numerous others who claim "royal blood", will protest against the deal because the pact will write finis to all these spurious claims. 

It will also affect the present claim of the Philippines in Sabah, because the deal will recognize that those lands under the "Sultanate" are actually, part of the BJE. 

There will be a period of great instability and turmoil, but this should not hinder nor discourage Arroyo from signing this deal. After the signing, the MILF will now bear the costs of such turmoil, not the government. As BJF administrator, the MILF through the Bangsamoro Islamic Liberation Army Front (BILAF) will have to contend with these anti-revolutionary forces.  The MILF will have a greater struggle ahead of it, owning to the firepower that these groups have ranged against it. The MILF should persevere and should not deter from the reason of its formation---the creation of an Independent Bangsamoro State.

In general, the deal will greatly benefit not only those under the BJE but also the entire nation. The potential of foreign investments from both China, the Middle East, India, the United States and Europe is there. Mindanao is underdeveloped. With a new government to be administered by the Bangsamoro themselves, anything is possible there.

Now, the Bangsamoro can build its own megacities, create jobs, create opportunities for everyone. The Bangsamoro can build investment sites. The territory to be given to them has enormous potential for development and growth. The area is rich in mineral and oil resources which, if developed, could potentially increase investment and further grow and modernize the Bangsamoro state.

However, this is just a small step. The growth and development of the BJE will take years before we finally enjoy its fruits. For now, the Bangsamoro People will have to prepare themselves against those who don't want progress. These groups have enslaved the Bangsamoro people for centuries. The enslavement have kept Mindanao underdeveloped and poor. For the Bangsamoro People to end it, it would need the Help of God to shackle those chains that have impoverished its people.