Erap as Kingmaker and the Betrayal of the People's Cause

Villar deserves being booted out of the Senate presidency. As what he himself said, if a president already lost the confidence of his colleagues, then, he should have the courage to resign. Villar committed grave abuse of his powers as Senate president and if we base it on accusations of his colleagues, he even used his position to corner juicy government contracts in favor of his real estate companies.

Wagging tongues say, Villar's ouster shows the Erap trademark. Whether Erap really is behind this caper or not, this rumour intends to position Erap as a kingmaker. It was even timed simultaneously with the release of a survey showing Erap tied with Villar at 17%. Was it meant to show the administration that Erap intends to run again? No.

Erap forces just want to attract financiers into the opposition and wean administration allies and financial backers away from Arroyo. Erap actually benefited from the Inquirer report since it re-ignited the popular belief that the Erap magic can still cast its spell over the Philippine political scene.

However, if we look closely, Erap, like Arroyo, is a spent political force. He cannot muster enough forces to actually dislodge Arroyo or her gang from power. Yes, probably there is still a sizeable portion of the C-D class who adores him but if you look closely at the results of the surveys, you'll find out that the percentage of support now is actually smaller compared with previous surveys. Seventeen percent is very small.

Conversely, Erap is losing his magic. And they know it. Kabayan Noli de Castro is closing in and silently whittling down the advantages of the opposition. De Castro is filling up the vacuum left by both Arroyo and Erap. Despite what people think of De Castro, he's slowly eating up the traditional constituencies of Arroyo and Erap. The prospect therefore of a De Castro win at the presidency is higher than other candidates. However, De Castro lacks funds to put up a decent fight. His tactical alliance with Arroyo is the reason why businessmen shun him.

Lacson, Legarda etal should train their guns not at Villar but on De Castro. Villar, for all his supposed might and money, will not be able to sustain his lead over Legarda, etal. Villar, yes, is going around town, promoting himself prior to the elections, probably spending his own money, which obviously, Legarda etal does not have.

Actually, Legarda does not enjoy a huge campaign kitty such as what Villar has at the moment. She does not have the support of the Chinoys, since Francis Chua is already on the side of Mar Roxas. Legarda is not attracting enough financial backers to support a campaign. Lacson, meanwhile, enjoys support from the Chinoys but most are cautious to support a Lacson presidential campaign.

Bayani Fernando is just a joker, while Binay, well, would probably enjoy the support of the Yellow Brigade, the same ones who supported Fred Lim when he ran as president.

So, all of these positionings by the opposition and presidentiables are just meant to shore up financial support. Hey, its xmas time again and those who want to be re-elected or be elected are obviously scurrying up for additional funds.

What I'm worried is the fragmentation of the legitimate opposition at the Senate. Nothing holds the new majority together. They are not bound by ideology. They are just motivated by personal political interests. They can easily be crushed by the administration.

Yes, probably, the composition of the new majority is anti-chacha. Their mettle will be tested in due time. If the administration moves in the first quarter of 2009 for cha-cha, we will see another re-configuration which could possibly lead to the passage of the proposal to constitute Congress as an assembly to amend the charter. An Arroyo SC will serve its purpose by frustrating any legitimate move to question the act of Congress.