INC officially endorses 7 candidates from Team Pnoy, 5 from UNA

These are the names of the candidates officially endorsed by the Iglesia ni Kristo.

1. Angara (TEAM PNOY)
2. Bam Aquino (TEAM PNOY)
3. Grace Poe (TEAM PNOY)
4. Loren Legarda (TEAM PNOY)
5. Antonio Trillianes IV (TEAM PNOY)
6.Cynthia Villar (TEAM PNOY)
7. Alan Peter Cayetano (TEAM PNOY)
8. JV Ejercito(UNA)
9. Richard Gordon (UNA)
10. Grace Binay (UNA)
11. Greg Honasan (UNA)
12. Jack Enrile (UNA)

There is the possibility that this is the final configuration in this elections. A 7-5 configuration is believable.

Curiously, INK has dumped Chiz Escudero.

PR man behind hits against former client?

Jeff Antiporda's news article column at the Manila Times point to a certain public relations man Willie Fernandez as the one behind the alleged "smear campaign" against Senator Loren Legarda. Legarda's handlers accuse Fernandez of instigating the controversy against Legarda for and on behalf of his client Alan Peter Cayetano.

Cayetano, a member of Upsilon Sigma Phi fraternity, is fraternity brother of Fernandez who now handles the publicity of the young senator. According to news sources, Cayetano reportedly wants top billing in this year's elections, that's why he unleashed a 10 million peso PR campaign against fellow Team Pnoy colleague Legarda. A member of the Nacionalistra party, Cayetano was once Loren Legarda's close party colleague. Legarda left Nacionalista and became a Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) member.

Top billing now means automatic inclusion as a possible Vice Presidential candidate come 2016. Is Cayetano salivating for a Vice Presidential post? Could be coz he was once Nacionalista and the voice behind all those filthy accusations against Pnoy during the 2010 elections. Now, he's Liberal.

I don't know with you but Fernandez or no Fernandez, Legarda has got to answer Biraogo's allegations that she owns Manhattan and Forbes park properties which she did not declare in her SALN. During all these years, all we know of Loren's preoccupation is her work as a Senator. Legarda has not earned from gains in any inheritance, so where did she get those millions?

This is a pity. If Fernandez is really the one behind Loren Legarda's smear campaign, then, this is very sad.

Fernandez used to handle the PR requirements of Loren Legarda, first when she was a budding senatorial candidate, up to the time when she ran for the vice presidency.

The Fernandez couple, Willy and his wife Chinbee, are close friends of Loren. I don't exactly know what happened between them, and why Loren dropped Willie as her PR man. If someone knows Loren up, close and personal, it's Willy.

As they say, in politics, nothing is permanent. In PR, nothing personal, just strictly, business. I still hope that this is not true.

2013 Mid-Term Elections in Philippines: Who gets the six remaining senatorial slots and why?

Analysing the senatorial configurations now, and many observers see only six remaining slots for newbies, or those wanting to become senators. Candidates are vying for 12 seats, but many seemed to have relegated the first six seats to incumbent senators, namely: Chiz Escudero, Greg Honasan, Loren Legarda, Koko Pimentel, Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillianes IV.

Three things why these re-electionists are shoo-ins: one, they have an enormous kitty to use in their re-election (2) they have a deep grassroots organisation and (3) they are in power and will definitely use this as leverage in political arrangements particularly at the LGU level.

Escudero, for example, has a wide network of supporters nationwide. His grassroots organisers are dedicated ones, and he has several arrangements with people's organisations and NGOs. Aside from monies coming from his business backers, Escudero has his own funds as Senator.

This is similar with Loren Legarda's case. Legarda has her vaulted LGU network to rely on. She, like Escudero, has many business backers, including Danding Cojuangco. She has a vast network of military men backing her up, most of them occupying sensitive positions in the military establishment.

It's a toss-up for the number one slot between Escudero and Legarda. However, many political observers see some groups campaigning against an Escudero rather than a Legarda.

It is common knowledge among political circles that Escudero is gunning for the 2016 presidency. If he gets elected overwhelmingly and gets the no. 1 spot, Escudero may well see himself being nominated for the presidency come 2016. A Legarda win, however, is safe for all parties, since many believe that Legarda has abandoned her presidential ambitions already. Legarda will likewise, benefit from a no. 1 ranking since the vice presidential post is still seen as vacant now.

Sources say, Escudero is toying with the idea of running either as President or Vice President come 2016. If he plays his cards right, Escudero may yet clinch what he hope for. Escudero is perceived as a safe bet in 2016, between a comebacking Marcosian force and an ageing political operator.


As the years go by, voters are becoming less and less informed about the "historical legacies" of a Marcos or a Binay. Binay's strength lies in his vaulted LGU support. If his political supporters lose their posts in 2013, Binay's chances will be extremely compromised.


Escudero's chances of winning 2016 is not as far-fetched as what some believe. He may yet be positioned as a winnable alternative between Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos and Vice President Jejomar Binay. Three years from now, the electoral landscape will be extremely different. There would be more younger voters, and getting their support will be crucial in a presidential contest. The political baggages linked with the brandnames of a Marcos and a Binay will bear heavy, and voters will surely gun for a perceived younger candidate.

This phenomenon has been observed in the election of Noynoy Aquino in 2010, when, ranged against political heavyweights such as Villar and Estrada, Aquino won riding on the crest of a change movement composed of very young voters.

Will we see another Escudero-Legarda tandem in 2016? The future is bright.

For another Marcos to clinch the presidency, Bongbong has to overcome three (3) challenges: first, titans in the business community who will still be in power come 2016, and still harboring ill feelings against the former Marcos dictatorship (2) government officials who previously fought the Marcos regime and, like several others, still carry an oppositive stance against the Marcoses and (3) a political bureaucracy uncertain of a Bongbong Marcos administration.

What Bongbong is going for him is the younger voters fascination about him, personally. Like Escudero, Bongbong's image and reputation among young and old voters is pretty impressive. In the last 2010 elections, we saw Bongbong Marcos' supporters almost everywhere, even in far-flung barangays.

If you ask me if Bongbong Marcos is ripe for the presidency, I will tell you straight that his chances, ranged against a Binay will be slim. He needs more time romancing the LGU heavyweights in every province and city. If Bongbong does his homework and participate actively this year in electing his supporters to critical voter-rich areas, we may yet see a Marcos in Malacanang come three years time.

However, ranged against an Escudero, Bongbong will probably provide a good fight, since voters perceive these two as fresh and young, and the only factor which will provide a political advantage would have to be LGU support, which, if this time is the reckoning, would probably be equal.

If Escudero gets top billing this year and continues to avoid being embroiled in any major controversy, it would be a shoo-in for him to the presidency, and even see administration backing come 2016.

And what about a Mar Roxas presidential campaign? If it's for the Vice-Presidency, Roxas is a sure winner.

Greg Honasan and Antonio Trillianes IV share the same constituency. They have the funds to fund their respective campaigns. However, their victories now depend on how organized their respective support groups are. They have the reformist groups on their side, but several information I got from sources reveal that their organisation is not as solid as it was several years ago.

The Magdalo organisation, for one, is fragmented at the grassroots, so Trillianes IV needs additional support from the Liberal Party to be able to win. What makes it difficult for Trillianes is, he has a Senate President as a political nemesis, someone so deeply entrenched not just in the LGU level but moreso, in the business community, that I am sure, Trillianes IV will find it extremely hard to shore funds from the business community.

The Trillianes IV brandname however, remains high in the Pulse Asia survey compared with other candidates. That was last June 2012, months prior to Trillianes IV highly public fiasco on China and his controversial tiff with Enrile. I fear that his ranking would be far lower in February than previous surveys. Trillianes will have a hard climb to victory this mid-term elections.

Honasan, meanwhile, has solidified his status in Philippine societal circles, but previous electoral contests show that Honasan's political brandname is not as formidable as it seems. He nearly lost two previous elections. He got his post

Executive Secretary backer of former Batangas Governor Tony Leviste? Loren tipped media off former hubby's illicit activities?

A deep source revealed that Executive secretary Paquito Ochoa Jr. is the one being referred to as the palace backer of convicted killer former Batangas governor Tony Leviste?


Leviste is reportedly very close to Ochoa. Ochoa, according to several sources, is the one who suggested to Leviste to apply for executive clemency. It is not entirely sure however, if Bureau of Corrections chief Ernesto Diokno and Ochoa are linked. 


Leviste was caught by NBI agents resting in his LPL mansions residence in Makati City. He was supposed to be in Muntinlupa, after having been charged and convicted of the murder of his aide a few years back.


IN an interview, Diokno's tongue slipped when he mentioned that Leviste had secured an Executive clemency. Leviste does not have any clemency order.


Meanwhile, another source revealed that it might have been Senator Loren Legarda who tipped the media about Leviste's whereabouts the day he was caught.


Legarda and Leviste are reportedly bickering over some child custody matters. They were formerly married. They separated several years back due to a "third party". 


Leviste, according to sources, is now with another woman and has renounced the Islamic faith. He is now a "born-again Christian."


Legarda, meanwhile, reportedly does not want to share time and custody of her child with Leviste. 


If this is true about Ochoa, the Executive secretary owes it to the public to explain his relationship with Leviste.

Impeachment of Gutierrez vested President Aquino full powers as the undisputed Political Leader in RP

Gloria Arroyo, the woman once voted as one of the most powerful in the world, sits there, puffy eyes and all. She watched as her former allies impeached the classmate of her corrupt husband, the only puritan left remaining of the rag-tag barung clad army of grafters.


210 Congressmen voted, some of them belonging and once considered themselves as arse-lickers of the Arroyos, now "reformers" and "walkers of the straight road". 


These Congressmen voted shortly after the head of government ordered that the Ombudsman's head, Merceditas Gutierrez be cut off.


The former powerful woman watched helplessly in the sidelines, while the charade unfolds itself right before her eyes. She uttered some unintelligible words to her colleague, always with her cellphone in her hands, showing signs of tension and fear.


Who were those people whom Arroyo called? Was she calling her husband, who caused all these problems in the first place?


The scene just showed to all that the transition of power is over. 


That full power has been vested to the new president, Noynoy Aquino. That the House is now Aquino territory.


There are, however, malicious insinuations that majority voted for impeachment in exchange for a resolution calling for a reburial of the remains of former president Marcos to the Libingan ng mga Bayani.


It remains to be seen if the Senate does the same thing. Law professor Paguia says in a Facebook update that Merceditas Gutierrez will survive the Senate impeachment trial. I doubt it.


IMpeachments are political processes, never really strictly legal. Yes, the Senators will act as judges and yes, these representatives of the Filipino People must act as judiciously as a court judge.


Experience and past events show that this is not the case in impeachments.


A re-alignment of power will unfold itself during the Senate trial.


Senators will vote against Gutierrez not because they strictly adhere to the Liberal way, but their previous acts and pronouncements already show their partiality for the impeachment of GUtierrez.


I doubt if 14 senators will inhibit themselves from this highly charged political event.


Senator Loren Legarda (Nacionalista)---definitely will vote for impeachment.
Senator Pia Cayetano (Nacionalista)---will vote with her conscience and for impeachment.
Senator Ed Angara (LDP)---of course, impeachment.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano---definitely, since he headed the committee that recommended charges be filed against perpetuators of graft and corrupt practices
Senator Joker Arroyo--nevermind him. He just shitted himself in the pants, according to several people.
Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri---will he or will he not toe the partyline, considering that even his own members at the HOuse voted for impeachment.
Senator Juan Ponce Enrile---probably, yes.
Senators Ping Lacson, Gregorio Honasan, Antonio Trillianes, Kiko Pangilinan, Frank Drilon, Teofisto Guigona III.


The ones whom I expect to vote against the impeachment are: Lapid, Defensor-Santiago, Arroyo, and possibly, Revilla.

Rice imports flood RP: legalized sabotage

President Noynoy Aquino's first State of the Nation address is frank, brutal and gives us just a slice of Philippine reality. I describe it as a story of how a group of Filipinos managed to systematically use existing laws to enrich themselves while in office. I call this "legalized thievery".

Consider how former Agriculture secretary and now Bohol Congressman Arthur Yap justified the excessive importation of rice from Vietnam. Like what his former boss said, Yap told the public that he looked at the horizon and found nothing irregular. For Yap, we are not swimming in rice. Where is the rice?

Like Pontius Pilate, Yap practically washed his hands off the scandal. He was just following orders. There was a study that says we need to import rice. So, that's what he did.

Karen Davila then revealed warehouses full of rice, most of them rotting and most were imported as far back as 2008.

I remember that year. It was the time when government said, there is a shortage of rice stocks and they need to import rice. Billions of pesos were spent to get these rice stocks from our neighbours and what did the government do about these millions of rice sacks? They hauled them to warehouses and left to rot.

What is the rationale behind this? Why did the NFA hid those sacks of rice? Simple. They want to force the market to raise the prices of rice. If they flooded the market back then with rice, then, prices of the staple food would have been lower than what it is now.

What government did was plain and simple economic sabotage. They did what local flour suppliers did---they tried to be the biggest rice mafia by simply controlling importation.

Now, if President Noynoy's revelation is correct, then, what government should do right now is simply try to "purify" these rice stocks and, distribute it to the markets. This will effectively lower the price of the staple product. The more rice stocks enter the market, the lower prices will become.

The new administration now has the power to influence market prices for the benefit of the public.

By the way, let us encourage Senator Loren Legarda to continue her campaign to investigate this scandal and come up with a report on how government should do to correct this criminal act.

Why Vote for Manny Villar?

A self-made man. An iconoclast in the business world. A great achiever. A visionary. This is how I and many others describe Manny Villar. The only question that I want others to answer is this—Villar is all what people expect him except a revolutionary. And our times call for a revolutionist as our leader.

Villar, in spite of his bravura, is not fit to be president, simply because during his terms as Senate president and Speaker of the House, he was not instrumental in legislating laws that improved our lives.  

Many people who are rooting for Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar believe that he fits the job quite perfectly. Villar, they say, did many things. He builds low cost houses. He passed some legislation. He was formerly a speaker and Senate president. He’s ripe for the picking.

This is probably true. There is one question that I wanted everyone to answer—when Villar was speaker, was that a time when we all said “good job”? Was he remarkable as a Senate president too?

No. When Villar was speaker that was the time when he betrayed his closest friend, Joseph Estrada. Was there any landmark legislation during Villar’s time? None. We do not remember anything extraordinary when Villar was speaker of the Lower House.

How about when he was Senate president? None. Do we remember anything so significant and so earth-shaking in fact about his term? None. Not one single thing.  Fact is it was during his time that these graft charges filed against the Arroyos went to naught. 

And remember that C-5 controversy? He was there when the road was diverted. 

We all saw what happened in our country when Villar was speaker and when he was Senate president. There was no landmark legislation, nothing that changed our lives. Villar, as they say, was never even there.

Villar was out there, campaigning, solidifying his mass bases and preparing for the presidential campaign. He did not use his position as Speaker to implement laws that would have improved the lives of the poor. When he was Senate president, there were no changes made even in the way the Senate operates. Villar was just there for the position.

So, do we expect him to achieve anything better or anything revolutionary if elected as president? I doubt it. The Filipino People gave him all the chances to make the grade, but he failed—twice. How then will we be assured that he will do good as our president?

How then will Villar be able to effect substantial changes in the lives of the poor, when while he was boss of the Lower House and eventually, president of the Senate, Villar did nothing or did not even lift a finger or even found it upon himself to make laws that will improve the lives of the poor. Review the laws he was able to pass, and there was no single piece of legislation on improving the economic condition of the poorest Filipinos.

How then will Villar even say that he will end poverty when God and the electorate already gave him ample time to make his mark as an anti-poor crusader yet he failed? Are we so generous that we will give this man a second or third chance to again fail and fail miserably? As one of my friends said, if you want change, don’t do the same thing over and over again. Because if you do, you’ll get the same dismal result.

If you asked me, the only possible result is simply under a Manny Villar administration, things will be totally different. We will probably see one Villar corporation using a fake title as bank collateral. Villar did it when he was a member of the Lower house when his bank, Capitol Development Bank, used an alleged fake title to secure a 1.6 billion loan from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Villar would probably defend himself by saying that he already divested all his business interests in favor of his children. That’s crap. Everyone knows in Vistaland that Manny Villar still calls the shots there. That is the same case in Camella Homes and other businesses of the Villars.

How then will Villar be able to recover the billions of pesos he spent during the campaign? Don’t tell me that we all were taken a joy ride by the Villars. Three billion pesos is nothing to sneeze at. Don’t even cajole me and say that Camille Villar will be able to recoup 3 billion pesos after the elections, without even dipping her fingers in any government-related project?

Let me end this by taking a jibe off the latest informecial of Villar and Loren. These candidates are asking us to vote for those with skills and experience already in governance. 


How can we even do what they’re asking when those with skills and experience like them did not even do good when we gave them the chance to lead us? Loren has been in public service for decades already; same case with Villar. Can you possibly and truthfully say straight to my face that your life improved because of them?

Loren Legarda has a credibility problem

Last night’s HARAPAN featured vice presidential candidates: Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Loren Legarda of the Nacionalista, Jejomar Binay of PMP-UNO/LABAN, Jay Sonza of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL), Bayani Fernando of Bagumbayan and Atty. Perfecto Yasay of Bangon Pilipinas.



The format was better than the presidential since it was really fashioned like the debates of old, where they pitted candidates against each other.


What was good about this was it afforded us the chance to really know and compare who was better. And based on online and text reactions from the viewers, Mar Roxas got a 55% trust rating.


Jay Sonza was a revelation though. He has the widest understanding among the vice presidentiables. True, he is really well prepared.


Mar Roxas appeared very confident and very prepared as well. Roxas was attacked by Loren Legarda a couple of times, but all attacks fell by the wayside.


Curiously though, Loren’s trust rating fell between 6-8%, the same as Sonza’s. Binay got even higher trust ratings than Loren’s, with about 15-18%.


Loren has a credibility problem. Every response that she gets appeared fractured. Every time that she uttered a word, ratings hover between a higher trust or a lower trust. Meaning, she does not have a solid base of support.


I really doubt now if Loren will really clinch the vice-presidential post, what with Mar Roxas there. Loren's media team should work double time but I really doubt if she can really overwhelm the public with her statement than Roxas'.

Loren was really affected by her political actions. The perception that she's a political butterfly really stuck. And that Villarroyo tag really affected the chances not just of Loren, but the rest of the Nacionalista party slate.

Loren Legarda should review her campaign and fix this problem. I doubt though if there are still time to do it.

Chiz becomes president if elections fail, says pending bill

reposted over at http://pinoyobserver.com. For other more interesting news and views, visit The Pinoy Observer.

Does Chiz know that he stands to benefit from a failure of the 2010 elections? Is this the reason why Chiz is dilly-dally or fidgeting in deciding to run for president?

A bill pending in Congress seeks a solution to possible power vacuum in the event of a failure of the 2010 elections. The bill, authored by Nueva Ecija Congressman Edno Joson, proposes a transition president in case of a declaration of an election failure. Joson proposes that the no. 1 Senator elected in 2007 and whose term ends in 2013, be designated as transition president. If the senator refuses the role, the responsibility goes to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.


The bill is enjoying tremendous support in the Lower Chamber, and great is the possibility that legislators will pass it. Now, if the elections fail, according to the bill, it would be Loren Legarda who will assume the post.


Since Legarda will be running as vice presidential bet of Nacionalista party Manny Villar, and definitely public sentiments will go against her assuming the presidency, the onus transfers to Chiz Escudero.


Escudero got the second highest number of votes last 2007 elections. Hi term ends in 2013. If he elects not to run for any elective post in 2010, Escudero would just have to wait for the elections to fail and he would assume the presidency.


Now, if Escudero do decides to run, then, it would have to be Senator Edgardo Angara who will act as transition president. Angara’s term ends in 2013.


One major stumbling block—Norberto Gonzales, the defense secretary cum ideologue cum GMA stooge.


Gonzales is there to protect the interests of the Arroyo mafia. He’s there to provide ideological muscle. In the future, Gonzales role will be very important, first as Gloria’s Rasputin in case this administration declares an emergency and converts itself into a dictatorial regime or as a catalyst for the military to shift allegiance.


Gonzales, obviously, would do what his principal orders him to do. Escudero’s alignment with the Magdalo does not sit well for Gonzales, who, as a clerico-fascist, positions himself at the extreme of the political spectrum. Gonzales is there to preserve the gains of the Arroyo mafia insofar as the military is concerned.


Now, will Gonzales' gang snatch power from Escudero's group? That is likely since under the bill, the incumbent president is not the one who serves as the transition head. Only a coup from within would extend Mrs. Arroyo's term.



Clearly, what is to be expected come 2010 is the clash between Gonzales and Escudero’s group. Their clash will obviously create a push and pull effect which will eventually split the country’s military in half. If this happens, a power vacuum is likely to happen.

Villar's pamamanhikan kay Loren--will this change Manny's chances?

Michael Lim Ubac, Philippine Daily Inquirer reporter quoted Senator Loren Legarda on the so-called "dramatic pamamanhikan" MannyVillar and his wife did with the lady vice presidential aspirant last Sunday. Loren was quoted thus:

“He told me, ‘I believe in your platform on environment, agriculture and climate change,’ and I said, ‘I believe in your platform on helping migrant workers and pushing for their rights.’ In that respect, we clicked right away,” Legarda told this reporter

Do you believe this crap? I don't.

If you look at it, that Sunday event was grotesque to say the least. It was a melodramatic rendition of a torn 45 vinyl record. Imagine a Manny Villar grinning ear-to-ear when his wife gave him away to Loren. This only happens in Muslim marriages, when the first wife agrees to give her husband away for the second.

It was a marriage of convenience between two traditional politicians---that's it. Were there any talks about protecting the environment, or the OFWs as what Loren said? Bull. Between two trapos, the environment and OFWs are least among the issues they probably discussed.

Loren agreed on Villar's proposition because she needs money to defeat Mar Roxas. Roxas continues to lead by 37% percentage points,  a mile away from Loren's ratings. Without logistics and a network, Loren is a sure loser.

Obviously, among political parties the Nacionalista Party is, by far, the most organized and with the widest of grassroots networks. Loren will not go to Lakas-KAMPI CMD, the party is suffering from organizational disarray. The Liberal will not accept her, neither is the United Opposition (UNO) for reasons the NPC also knows.

In this "grotesque marriage" between a billionaire and a political courtesan, the groom seems on the losing side and the so-called bride got all the goods. Villar has logistics, Loren does not. Villar has the organization, Loren, zero. But Loren has her charms work for her. But, will that charm benefit her political "husband"?

Will a Loren Legarda improve the chances of a Manny Villar in the presidential race? Pulse Asia's October survey sees Villar's rating slipping further south, an indication that last August and September's ratings had already reached a plateau. Villar peaked so early that he now faces a tough climb against formidable and more popular political opponents such as Noynoy Aquino and Joseph Estrada.

Loren's constituency is the same as that of Villar's. To get the presidency, Villar needs to get as many provinces and regional voting blocks as possible. Example---Batangas is a sure give-away to Noynoy after Vilma Santos transferred from Lakas to Liberal. Batangas is one province with the biggest voting block, not just in terms of numbers but moreso as an ethno-linguistic block.

Cavite remains a white country considering that Lacson's influence over the province is more pervasive than the Remulla's.The Remullas are aligned with the Nacionalista. The province's foremost party, the Partido Magdalo is a card-carrying member of Villar's party.

Laguna is obviously another "white country" and in the 2010 elections, support will split between Estrada and possibly Villar's. It is too early to say if Noynoy Aquino's Liberal Party can actually snatch this province away from the two, but now, it's possibly going for Villar more than Erap.

The solid North is also fragmented, with the Marcoses supporting Estrada, a big factor in getting this vote-rich region. While Ilocos Sur remains "liberal", Cong. Eric Singson is not running; his son Owen is. So, it remains to be seen whether Ilocos Sur will break away from tradition and vote in block behind Noynoy instead of Villar.

Pangasinan is also a vote-rich province. The De Venecias, it seems, are rooting for Villar. Yet, their influence in the province is not that formidable compared in previous years. Governor Espino remains a force to reckon with despite rumours of an Agbayani comeback. Having said that, Pangasinan is definitely white country with no major political party claiming the entire province their own.

Bulacan has over 2 million voters. Former governor Josie dela Cruz is reclaiming the governorship, with the "blessing" of incumbent governor Mendoza. Dela Cruz remains a very strong and influential force in the province but traditionally, Bulakenos do not vote as a block. Whoever Dela Cruz aligns herself with will, in the end, get the most votes. Dela Cruz, by the way, is an administration ally. 

Cebu, another vote rich province with 5 million voters, is probably going for Teodoro, but the Liberal Party and UNO have their thing going there. The Nacionalista also has their traditional networks still working for Villar.The Osmenas are working tirelessly for Noynoy while the Garcias are either for Estrada or Teodoro's. Winston Garcia, the son of kingmaker Pablo Garcia, is running for Congress and surely, he will campaign for Teodoro. Places he can reach and those which the Garcias have moral and persuasive influence will go for Teodoro. Gwen Garcia, a Lakas-KAMPI ally, is torn between supporting Erap or Teodoro. The Garcia political clan will have to split their allegiances between Estrada and Teodoro. 

To win therefore, Villar has to get as many minority vote rich areas to undermine the strength of his opponents in major vote-rich areas. Villar hopes that Legarda would do that for him, getting him support from major areas already dominated by his opponents. If you look at Legarda's numbers, however, you'll find that she does not have the moral nor the political influence heavier than the others. Legarda will surely not improve Villar's chances in a substantive way.

Now, if you say that Mindanao will go for a presidentiable whom Legarda supports, you are mistaken. Mindanao goes for the logistical jugular---the one with the money, wins. Villar can get Mindanao without Loren. However, Villar has to go to the Pangandamans, the Mangundadatus and other political "heavyweights" before he can rightfully claim victory. For that, he also needs the blessing of the military. 

Net---Loren is just a prop, a beautiful one indeed. Her team-up with Villar will not change the way the people think about the Nacionalista nor will she deliver the votes needed by Villar to win. In all likelihood, Legarda got the best out of this deal. And Villar will lose his billions.

Loren Legarda's Money Demands irked Chiz Escudero

Ding Gagelonia's explosive revelation behind Chiz Escudero's resignation merits public attention. Check his story out at http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com. Based on the story, Loren Legarda's 500 million peso demand and her dilatory tactics left Chiz Escudero without a choice but to leave NPC. Legarda, as what one source of Gagelonia says, demanded 500 million pesos from the NPC, then agreed to lower it down to 300 million pesos. Numerous instances where both Escudero and Legarda could have talked things out were squelched.

Seems like the inside story behind Escudero's resignation was neither nationalist nor personal. Escudero resigned from the party because talks between him and Legarda were getting nowhere. The push-and-pull of Escudero's and Legarda's forces ripped the possibility of a tandem apart, leading, as we now see, a presidential-less NPC.

Now, Gagelonia's expose does not discount the possibility that certain forces within the party itself wanted this to happen, simply, isolate Escudero, make things hard for him, and force him to take the road less travelled by politicians, that is, take refuge with minority power brokers.

I still maintain the stance that what Escudero did was a maverick move. Since he felt that the only true thing about the Nationalist People's Coalition is it's a coalition of people sans nationalism, then, it is but logical for him to salvage his reputation as an oppositionist and abandon a lost cause.

Okey, Escudero is faced with a monumental decision---pursue a losing proposition or just stay where he is right now, and hope for better times in the future. Escudero is in a bind. If he pursues his presidential bid and lose, Escudero's chances of getting it the second time are very slim. If he withdraws from the game at this point, Escudero still loses because what that means is weakness, a trait not entirely seen as admirable by the electorate.

Escudero, as what my sources say, is being egged to just support Noynoy Aquino. Aquino's camp admitted talks with Escudero. There is, however, no clear indication if those talks are even going anywhere, but this too is not entirely beneficial for Escudero.

Net---Escudero has to be the People's David and fight these traditional monsters that created this society we live right now.

NPC as political prostitute

We're seeing the diminution of traditional political party setups and the slow disintegration of original trapo political parties. As confirmed by this site a few days ago, Lakas is teaming up with NPC, not to push for a Teodoro-Legarda tandem, which, as some sources say, is in the realm of Akira Kurusawa (Dreams); but to enhance their respective ranks. Lakas has been plagued by desertions, same case with NPC. It is but natural for both parties to merge for self-preservation.

Some say, this is the major reason why Escudero and Legarda decided to bolt their parties. Both candidates do not want their names associated with an NPC-Lakas merger. Natural for Escudero to form his own movement since he is being supported by progressives and reformist groups. While Legarda has to butterfly to other parties not entirely critical against the administration, but positioning themselves also as "oppositionist" by name or association.

On the part of Legarda, natural for her to gravitate towards Villar because the Nacionalista is not under the administration list of possible targets for demolition. Under a Villar-Legarda tandem, Loren will remain an NPC member, indicating that this is purely for 2010 reasons.

With Legarda under the Villar wing, she will eventually enjoy the strength of Villar's machinery and preserve her strong ties both with NPC and Lakas. She will definitely be endorsed by NPC as their vice presidential candidate and of course, by the Nacionalista.

The merger between NPC and Lakas will benefit Loren Legarda. There is that possibility that the NPC will only support Teodoro as president in deference to Lakas , and Legarda as vice. The Villar-Legarda tandem does not necessarily mean that the entire NPC will support Villar. What NPC will do is open itself up for the possibility of supporting Teodoro only as president and not supporting a vice presidential candidate. If this happens, this benefits Loren.

By the way, why Villar for Legarda in the first place?

Unknown to many, Villar already entered in an agreement with Mrs. Arroyo. Villar will not prosecute Mrs. Arroyo for high crimes against the people should he win the elections. Villar is also open to the possibility of shifting to a parliamentary setup post-2010. What we are now seeing is an alliance of pro-Arroyo groups austensibly to prevent a Noynoy Aquino win or an Erap win.

Eventually, these trapos (Noynoy's Liberal and Erap's UNO are traditional oppositionists on the left-of-right side of the political spectrum same as the Nacionalista and NPC positioned on the middle-of-right) will negate themselves and pave the way for a victory of a third force.

Trouble in ChizNation? And Angara brokering the wedding of Loren Legarda with Manny Villar

Is Senator Ed Angara playing the role of a wedding broker, arranging the possible tandem of Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar and coy vice presidential aspirant Senator Loren Legarda? It seems like it. And Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) presidential bet Chiz Escudero does not like what he's hearing.

Chiz Escudero’s closest adviser says the NPC bet is thinking of junking Senator Loren Legarda as his vice presidential bet. Escudero's camp has decided not to announce Loren as its vice presidential contender after a series of failed negotiations with her camp. Loren remains non-committal with NPC because of talks that Danding Cojuangco is also thinking twice of letting it all out for Chiz.

Escudero is set to announce his presidential bid tomorrow at the Bahay ng Alumni, at the University of the Philippines in Diliman. He is expected to announce his full slate, including six (6) senatoriables. Some of those expected to be with the ChizNation includes: Susan “Toots” Ople, Ompong Plaza and Grace Poe. Last Monday, the Samahang Magdalo endorsed Chiz as their presidential bet.


Now, going back to this Angara-initiated talks. What is the topic of the negotiations? Well, Loren is asking for full logistical support in her vice presidential bid. Understandable, since Loren will be fighting against a formidable opponent–Mar Roxas–who has billions in his campaign kitty. Loren enjoys a definitive edge over Mar in the mass base or grassroots department. However, in Philippine politics which behaves like local politics, money changes everything.


Angara is asking Villar to give full financial and logistical support to Loren Legarda in exchange for agreeing to be his running mate. As source says, these talks are now in its final stages. With two political financiers supporting her—the Cojuangcos and the Villars—nothing will stop Loren from getting what she wants.

Certain quarters are saying that even the administration is intent on backing Loren Legarda's vice presidential bid just to spite Mar Roxas. Legarda's palace meeting with Mrs. Arroyo reportedly sealed the deal.


The question is—what will Mar and the Liberal do to stop a Loren rampage? And what will be the political plans of Vice President Noli de Castro? Will he do a second round against Loren?

Ironic is'nt? A few months ago, when Noynoy Aquino was still a non-factor in Philippine politics, there was even talks of a Mar Roxas-Loren Legarda tandem. Now, they will be fighting against each other for the second highest post in the land.


The more important question is—what will Chiz do at this point, now that the stacks are ranged against him?

Why Chiz has not announced his candidacy: another "teka-teka" presidentiable in the making?

How true are reports indicating that the reason why Chiz Escudero suspended his announcement last October 12 was that Danding Cojuangco, his main political financier, was still adamant in funding his entire campaign? And that some of his Chinese supporters are reported to have backed out?

Reports are circulating that Danding just had a meeting with Peping Cojuangco for the possibility of supporting Liberal Party candidate Noynoy Aquino. This came days before the very public pronouncement of Danding, saying that he supports no one but the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), whom he founded.

Rep Mark Cojuangco, son of Danding, in an interview tried to squelch all these reports saying that their party is preparing for a Chiz-Loren tandem and to prove that, Danding is even attending Loren Legarda's public pronouncement in Luneta. Danding did not go. Mark, of course, attended the event, with some NPC officials.

Even Rex Gatchalian, the NPC spokesperson, denies such reports and described them as "rumours". The NPC will be fielding a complete slate in 2010. You can't avoid some people tittle tattling and speculating why is it taking Chiz Escudero so long to declare that he's running. What's taking them so long to formally announce their respective bids? Are they waiting for something?

There is also serious troubles in ChizNation. Senator Serge Osmena just bolted out of Chiz's camp and joined the Liberal Party. Lito Banayo, formerly of the camp of Senator Ping Lacson, is now Chiz's campaign manager.

In an earlier post, Loren Legarda, presumably Chiz's running mate, has just announced her desire to campaign for the vice presidential post. She did so without naming her presidential contender, dampening some of the expectations from the Chiz camp that she'll do so when she announce.

Curiously though, Loren Legarda did her announcement much earlier than Chiz, fuelling speculations that, indeed, there are some "logistical" problems on the part of the ChizNation. And some sources even say that Chiz is really not quite sure of running for the top post because he's afraid of losing it all to Noynoy Aquino.

It seems that we have another "teka-teka" candidate in the persona of Mr. Escudero. Bad form Chiz.

At last a candidate with a Vision! Loren Legarda tops all candidates

Loren Legarda just announced that she'll be running for the vice presidential post come 2010. Her Luneta announcement last night is better than all the other candidates running for the top post. Instead of a melodramatic speech, peppered with necropolitical imagery, Loren presented a platform.

At last! A candidate with a vision, a candidate who has the strong will to say what she truly wants to do and what she intends to fulfill should she be elected for the top post. Let me quote her "six-point must-do" Pro-People Agenda from an Inquirer report :

First, the country’s resources, including government funds, should go toward affording all Filipinos housing, sanitation, potable water, access to medicines and proper health care, education for the youth and skills training.

Second, government must recognize the contributions of overseas Filipino workers by facilitating their gainful employment, providing them ample protection against abuses and by continuously upgrading their skills and knowledge.

third, the new administration must really crack down on corruption, which wastes the country’s limited resources, destroys institutions and undermines the trust of the people and of the international community, including foreign investors.

Fourth, protection of the environment and initiation of pro-active measures to address the problem of climate change and the disasters related to it by strictly following geohazard maps in pursuing development plans, flood control and solid waste management systems.

Fifth, forge a genuine peace, especially in Mindanao, not only through law enforcement but through the resolution of the root causes of the conflicts in the countryside, poverty and social injustice to name a few.

Sixth, forge a cultural renaissance for Filipino culture and traits to be recognized, rejuvenated and passed on to future generations “because they are what makes Filipinos unique as a people.”

I asked all New Patriots to vote for Loren Legarda. I ask my fellow brothers and sisters in the Islamic faith and all other faiths, to campaign for her.

With Loren's entry, the vice presidential derby has become more interesting than the presidential. Imagine, two political heavyweights, namely Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda, will be fighting headlong in this. Loren enjoys an edge since based on SWS surveys, she has a solid mass base support of 26%, far from the 13-14% mass base support of Roxas.

Roxas has the money but Loren has the support of local government officials and of course, Danding Cojuangco.

If the Estrada oppositionist camp wants to win, it must convince Binay to just give way to Loren Legarda. Now, if Loren runs with Chiz as her presidentiable, they might possibly clinch it. A Chiz-Loren tandem has better chances than, say, a Villar-Loren or a Teodoro-Loren, although this tandem is really very, very ideal for one simple fact---both are highly intelligent and with a vision. Sadly, this cannot be because of a misconception that it is a kiss of death to align with the administration.

Dalawa na lang ang manliligaw ni Loren Legarda

Tulad ng isang "mahinhing" Filipina, isa-isa nang sinasabihan ni Senadora Loren Legarda ang kanyang mga masusugid na manliligaw ng kanyang mapait na "sorry". Ligawin si Loren, hindi lang dahil sa kanyang angking kagandahan, kundi na rin sa kanyang angking Mass appeal. Kahapon, sinabi ni Loren na ayaw niyang makatambal si Lakas-KAMPI presidential candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro. "Mananatili ako sa oposisyon," ayon kay Legarda na patuloy na nakikipag-usap sa iba pa niyang mga manliligaw tulad ni NPC presidential bet Chiz Escudero at Nacionalista Party Manny Villar. Dalawa na lamang ang natitirang manliligaw ni Loren. Sino kaya sa kanila ang pipiliin ng magandang senadora?

Parehong may asawa ang dalawa, kaya naman mananatiling number two sa puso nila si Loren. Sa halalan, obvious namang pangalawang "asawa" lang siya ng dalawa. Malakas ang ugong na siya na ang partner ni Villar. Pero, ilan naman ang pinipilit si Chiz na maging number two siya.

Sino kaya ang pipiliin ni LOren? Abangan sa araw na ito.

Unifying the Opposition: An Impossible Mission?

A five to six-man field of presidential candidates will most likely seal the victory for the administration, be it a de Castro or a Teodoro led slate. If De Castro runs and gets at least 25-28% of the votes, then, that would spell the end of all opposition aspirations to establish a New Order post-Gloria in 2010.

It is imperative for opposition groups to unify and field a common candidate or at least level the field to two major opposition parties. For example, a party being led by Joseph Erap Estrada combined with Mar Roxas could neutralize the strength of a De Castro led campaign since they have a common constituency. A Chiz Escudero led party could easily puncture the constituency of a Mar Roxas or a Legarda led campaign since they have the same constituencies. While Manny Villar's major support groups criss-cross those of Roxas', Erap's and Escudero's.

The problem is there is no singular candidate that unifies the major sectors of the Philippine electorate. Some would argue that that candidate could be Noynoy but the good senator's political strength is still untested. He is the ideal common candidate yet the realities of 21st century Philippine politics is different from the political circumstances which attended Cory or Ninoy's time. It is a fact that the Aquino political clout has considerably diminished over time and attempts at reviving it could only do so much. Yet, it is not enough to really ensure electoral victory.

There is a strong possibility that Erap is really intent on running and is only looking for his running mate. Now, will Erap be able to use his magic or influence and convince others to just slide down to a senatorial post.

Chiz Escudero as NPC Standard Bearer

A source says that the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), the front political party of businessman Danding Cojuangco is preparing for the official pronouncement of Senator Chiz Escudero as their official standard bearer for the 2010 Presidential polls. Senator Loren Legarda, as the source says, has agreed to be Chiz' running mate. The official pronouncement will be held either on or after the October 10 birthday bash of Chiz.

If this is true, then, Chiz will be the youngest presidential candidate at 40 years old. The second youngest is Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, followed by either Loren or Mar Roxas.

There are also ongoing talks between the NPC and the camp of former president Joseph Estrada. A possible merger of both parties is in the works, yet, most supporters of the former president, says the source, are against the formal coalition. Erap is expected to announce his candidacy for the presidency in late September, ahead of the possible party convention in October. Erap's possible running mate is either Jejomar Binay or a "kicker" candidate whom the source refused to identify.

The source says Chiz' consistent showings at the Top 5 choice for the presidential position is the reason why many of NPC's stalwarts prefer him as their standard bearer. Another reason was the full backing and support given by traditional politico Luis Villafuerte, the kababayan of Chiz Escudero. Villafuerte, the source says, is eyeing the DILG post under an Escudero presidency.

Villafuerte is a powerhouse political player in Bicol, a vote rich region. He was an original Lakas CMD member before he crossed the fence and joined Danding. Villafuerte, the source says, is Danding's political operator. Talks are rife that Lakas-KAMPI is fast losing ground support due to Villafuerte's efforts.

Legarda failed to get the backing of Villafuerte, who is a close friend of Chiz's father, a former Congressman and Marcos crony.

PPCRV-COMELEC Presidentiable Forum sa Plaza Miranda--Mabuhay!

Maganda ang kinalabasan ng isinagawang presidential forum ng PPCRV at COMELEC ngayong gabi. Bagamat nabasa ako sampu ng pamilya ko sa ulan, hinamak namin ang bagyo, makadaupang palad lamang ang mga makabayang mga pinunong ito na handang handang pagsilbihan tayo at ituwid ang kamaliang ang pangalan ay Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Dama ko ang sinseridad sa tinig ni Senator Richard Gordon. Sa kabila ng samu't-saring komento hinggil sa kanyang panukalang patawarin ang mga Abu Sayyaf, hindi siya nakitaan ng anumang klaseng bahid ng katiwalian o ng anumang di magandang asal sa harap nito. Isa siyang maginoo, sa pananaw ko. Ang tanong lang ng karamihan---handa na kaya tayo para sa isang Richard Gordon?

Mukhang malamlam ngayon si Loren Legarda. Inaasahan ko pa namang magkalapit sila ni Erap, na ilang araw lang ay sinabi niyang tanging puwersang aaniban niya sa pagtakbo sa 2010. Sa gabing ito, magkatabi sina Legarda at Chiz Escudero. Ibig bang sabihin nito, sila ulit ang magtatambal sa halalan sa ilalim ng Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC)? Yan na nga ba ang sinasabi ko. Pero, tingin ko, blessing in disguise pa rin ito. Dahil, maaga pa lamang, nakita na natin ang "teka-teka" attitude ni Loren.

Walang dudang handang-handa na si Erap para tumakbong muli bilang pangulo. Kumpara sa kanyang mga pahayag noong ANC Leadership forum, mas direktang sinasabi ni Erap ang kanyang kakayanan at intensyong manumbalik sa kanyang puwesto. Ang tanong--handa na ba tayo sa Erap restoration? Kung oo, handa ba tayong maipasailalim sa isang pamahalaan sa loob lamang ng tatlong taon?

Mukhang pagod naman sa biyahe itong si Chiz Escudero ngunit pagsampa pa lamang niya sa entablado, bumira na agad ang pinakabatang kandidato. Ang lagi ko lamang namang kritisismo sa kanya ay ang sinseridad sa kanyang mga salita. Tunay nga bang may lamang maganda ang kanyang mga bulaklaking pahayag? Tunay nga ba at taos sa puso ang kanyang naising mapaganda ang kalagayan nating mga Pinoy? Eksperto si Escudero sa P.R. Pero, sa kalaunan, ito bang klase ang kailangan ng taumbayan sa harap ng sanlaksa at sandamukal na suliraning kinakaharap natin?

Para namang magkapatid sina Governor Ed Panlilio at Mar Roxas. Kapwa nila suot ang Collezione Philippine shirt na pagmamay-ari ni Joey (secret ang surname) at disenyo ni Red. Alam ko, dahil kilala ko si Joey. Senyales ba ito na si Manong Ed ang magiging katambal ni Mar? Sayang. Mas maganda sana kung magsasanib puwersa sina Mar at Kiko, yan ang dream team.

Damang dama ko ang marubdob at malinis na hangarin ni Mar para sa ating bayan. Dangan nga lamang at maaga siyang sumubsob sa kampanya. May positibong epekto rin naman ang gayong istratehiya dahil pinatutunayan lamang niya na handang handa siyang tumayo para baguhin ang kasalukuyang kalagayan nating mga Filipino. Ang palagiang tanong lamang ay---handa rin ba siyang talikuran ang bilyong pisong kayamanan niya sakaling siya ang ihalal bilang pangulo?

Kung handang tumayo sa Plaza Miranda ang mga magigiting na mga kandidatong ito, ano naman kayang palusot ang sasabihin nina Bayani, Noli, Gibo at itik, este Villar?

Dahilan ba sa trapik at baha kaya hindi nakadalo si Bayani? Nagtatago ba si Noli sa takot dahil baka matanong sa kanya ang papalalang kalagayan ng housing sector sa Pilipinas? Kinakausap pa ba ni Gibo ang kanyang esposa para payagan siyang tumayo sa Plaza Miranda? O, natatakot si Gibo sa maaaring negatibong palahaw sa kanya ng mga Muslim sa Quiapo?

Ang pinaka nakakawalang gana ay ang patuloy na nag-isnab ni Manny Villar sa mga ganitong pagtitipon. Anung akala niya sa sarili niya, hari na? Oo, baka siguro sa Las Pinas. Pero, sa buong Pilipinas? Talagang nababastusan ako sa inaasal nitong si Villar. Bakit, ayaw ba niyang makilala siya ng lubusan ng taumbayan? Natatakot ba siyang mabulgar ang tunay niyang karakas?

Natatakot ba siyang matanong kung magkano ang kinita niya sa C-5 road scandal at papaano niya dinaybert ang daan para maambunan ng grasya ang mga pag-aari niya? Teka, ano nang nangyari sa ethics trial ni Villar? Bakit biglang nanahimik sina Jamby Madrigal at Senator Juan Ponce-Enrile, pati na ang magiting na si Senator Ping Lacson? Nabusalan na ba ng Camella ang mga bibig nila? O, me pag-uusap nang naganap sa pagitan ng mga nag-aakusa at ng inakusahan?

Sayang si Villar. Nalulungkot ako sa kinasasapitan niya sapagkat ang anak niya ay kasanib sa aming kapatiran. Ang duda ko, ill advised siya. Akala siguro niya, kahanay na niya si Erap na noong 1998 ay umiwas din sa mga debate at fora.

Malayo pa si Villar. Sa tingin ko, pambabastos yan dahil akala siguro ni Villar na kung nagagawa niyang busalan ang trapong midya ng kanyang pera, hawak na niya pati puso't abdo ng masa. Ang kawalang respeto ng isang katulad ni Villar na makadaupang palad ang mga maralita at ordinaryong mamamayan ay senyales lamang ng kung anong uring pamahalaan tayo sa ilalim ng isang big-time real estate magnate. Isang pamahalaang walang pagmamahal at konsiderasyon sa masang Pilipino. Pwe!

Third Force sure to win Presidency in 2010

In an election where about 34.4 Million (80% out of 43 million registered voters) are expected to cast their votes, anything is possible. In a two party fight, a presidentiable needs 51% or 17.5Million votes to win. However, in a multi-party fight, the best that a presidentiable needs is about 6-7 million votes to snatch the crown.

Of course, the likely scenario come 2010 is a multi-pronged fight among numerous parties. In that case, a presidentiable needs only to spend an amount equivalent to running as a senator. He doesn’t need billions to waste in these elections. He just needs to spend it wisely.

Now, in a tight race such as this, you need a backbone and that is a strong personal network of local executives. Since there would be an inter-locking of interests, constituencies and agendum, a solid base of local executives and organizations is needed. If, for example, a candidate already has this, expect him to win single-handedly than the others. More likely, those who would depend largely on party machinery would surely not make the grade since, in this scenario, victory would depend on the personal network of supporters of the candidate, rather than sheer party power.

That's why, Teodoro does not have a Chinaman's chance of winning the elections if pitted against Estrada and possibly, Mar Roxas. Estrada has a solid mass base of support, a mix of fans and supporters gained from years as a traditional politician. Roxas, meanwhile, also has a very solid base of support, gained through years of running as senator. His 18 million is nothing to sneeze at and granted that he gets just a fraction of this, which is still substantial to allow him to win.Teodoro, meanwhile, would rely on sheer strength of the administration party particularly in resources since this would mean more candies thrown at the sidelines instead of crumbs by other parties.

Yet, in honest-to-goodness elections, Teodoro's antics would probably go to waste since, in the final analysis, local politicians would think of their personal survival first before minding national campaigners like Teodoro. Ultimately, Teodoro would have to rely on his personal network, which, unfortunately, he doesn’t have. He hasn’t campaigned on a national basis and does not have a sterling record running a national campaign. Hence, he stands to suffer the same fate as that of former Defense secretary Renato de Villa, should he insists on running despite not being the standard bearer.

Now, we go to De Castro. De Castro just ran twice---first as Senator and then vice president. Question---can we now say that De Castro has a solid personal constituency of his own? It's quite doubtful, considering that his numbers are not illustrative or definitive of a solid mass base. Maybe the reason why De Castro continues to enjoy positive support from the masses (as reflected in these surveys, most notably, Pulse Asia) is he hasn’t declared himself a candidate yet and he hasn’t thrown his fate to the Arroyo block. It would be quite different though should De Castro cast his lot with Arroyo's, in which case, possibly, that would whither support away from him. That would really peel off De Castro's perceived strength as a candidate since people will now see him as an administration lackey and that will surely affect his chances.

How about Chiz Escudero? Does he have a personal constituency that, despite party machinery, he's surely win? Like De Castro, it's doubtful. Chiz is a scion of local politics. It's only just once that he ran a national campaign, yet, there are indications though that Chiz is slowly building up a personal mass base, like Estrada's. However, everyone knows that it's still quite dangerous to bet on Chiz since his influence is still untested. In this case, it is safer to bet with Loren Legarda, since she has shown a consistent base of more than 10 million votes with her successive national campaigns.

What am I trying to say here? In terms of statistical probabilities, a third force, like, for example, a Mar Roxas campaign is surer to win than all the others. Compared with Chiz and de Castro, Roxas is a veteran national campaigner, having campaigned for the senate twice. Of course, it's safer still to also bet on Estrada since; his influence has not waned despite being incarcerated for some time.And it's not certain if Estrada could transpose the public trust reposed to him by the masses to his favoured candidate.

FPJ's case is one. Despite his endorsement, FPJ lost. FPJ could have won if there are no other parties that ran, says Estrada, but I know that he knows that that is surely not the reason why his friend lost.What people considered then was the track record of FPJ as an official, which, we all know, was non-existent. Sure, those claps, those ohs and ahs of the masses were not votes; they're simply shallow adulations.

Okey let me recap this so that it's clearer.1. I believe that 2010 will be a multi-party fight. Administration will pit De Castro over an opposition candidate, probably in the person of Estrada and a "third force" would emerge, represented by the Liberal Party led by Mar Roxas. What would prevent the possibility of an Estrada-Escudero tandem? Nothing of course, except that the NPC might throw their chances out of the window should they insists on running independently or casting their lot with LAKAS-KAMPI (unlikely).2. Eventually, Villar's Nacionalista Party will bow out of the race. Villar is encountering a whole lot of trouble after this ethics scandal. Surely, he'll reconsider than fight it out. In that scenario, Villar would opt his chances with Estrada camp, since Jinggoy is still sympathetic with him, a sign that he's still "in good graces" with them. However, Villar would suffer the fate of other wannabes since in the final count; it would just be the Estrada faction of the opposition and the administration that would figure prominently in the leader board.3. Having said that, it is all the more likely that the elitist factions of Estrada and the administration will cancel themselves out to usher or pave the way for the victory of a perceived third force. Voters would definitely choose the safer opposition---a force that is not tainted with corruption and has a record of service.

The question lies is---who will lead this third force? Would it be Escudero? That would be determined from the direction the NPC would take in the coming months. If NPC sways in the direction of the administration, they would be committing suicide and would lose their chance of conquering Malacanang. If NPC sways in the direction of the opposition that would cause a serious split that would pave the way for a third force. Unlike other third forces which ran, and lost under the weight of trapo machineries, this Third Force enjoys both strategic fund advantage and tactical opportunity.