Triggers for the Defining Moment

In previous entries, I have explained what the "defining moment" is (or what I personally call the dramatis causa or others term as casus belli). In our situation right now, the goal of the administration is to deny its enemies of this event. Malacanang is known to adapt itself from any destabilizing situation. In fact, the possibility of Malacanang backtracking, even going to the extent of Mrs. Arroyo being made to announce a televised presscon of her desire to step down in 2010 just to quelch any and all big demonstrations against her administration. She did it before. However, everytime she does this, and after the situation cools, her administration actually hits back at critics, squeezing them and institutes certain measures against them. So, learning from this, this time though, many people hope that those who really want her out before 2010 should do their thing with extreme force. They should deal Arroyo a decisive defeat, and not allow her to recover. Otherwise, they may yet see themselves getting the brunt of the state power in case of another failed try.

As you see in my previous entries, forces are converging very fast against Gloria. There is a systematic destruction of state defenses via two modes: political re-alignments and neutralization of possible military opposition against the emerging movement. Now, what would trigger a situation which would possibly lead to Gloria's ouster? First, I believe that the anti-charter change interfaith rally will lead to Gloria's downfall if managed properly. If groups pull their punches and fein on lambasting her and not really throw everything at her administration before, during and after the rally, nothing will come out of it.

Remember--this rally is a barometer for both the pro-Arroyo and the anti-Arroyo. It is crucial for both groups. If this fails, expect a backlash against all anti-Arroyo groups. Expect political and economic futures to change for those who support this. Expect also a totalitarian regime of Arroyo. Arroyo will be able to use this as an occasion to immediately sweep all opposition and declare authoritarian rule. If this succeeds though, the political and even professional futures of those who stuck it out with Arroyo would also change dramatically. What we see now as our present political leaders may suffer a humiliating retirement once an attempt at the seat of power fails again.

What is also crucial for both groups is how they manage the information flow. Again, this will lead to a situation where he who holds media will be able to control time. What do I mean by this? If a group controls the information environment, he will now have the power to direct what path this would take. Will it go and influence the "swing forces"--those groups who will fence sit and will wait and observe who's winning? Or, will it be totally controlled by the state which, in this case, deprives the other side of their momentum and allows state security forces to move in and quell dissent.

Now, the possibility of this being a failure is still very high. One scenario that I'm praying not to happen is when Malacanang convinces Arroyo to publicly announce her intention not to run in 2010. If this happens, they'll be a split among the ranks of these groups behind the interfaith rally. Given the tenuous nature of this group, those who oppose Arroyo just because of the possibility of term extension would probably abandon the cause. This could dilute the qualitative character of the movement but could not possibly affect the outcome of things if, say, other events come into the picture. What are these elements and where will they emerge will again, be the subject of another post.