In previous entries, I have explained what the "defining moment" is (or what I personally call the dramatis causa or others term as casus belli). In our situation right now, the goal of the administration is to deny its enemies of this event. Malacanang is known to adapt itself from any destabilizing situation. In fact, the possibility of Malacanang backtracking, even going to the extent of Mrs. Arroyo being made to announce a televised presscon of her desire to step down in 2010 just to quelch any and all big demonstrations against her administration. She did it before. However, everytime she does this, and after the situation cools, her administration actually hits back at critics, squeezing them and institutes certain measures against them. So, learning from this, this time though, many people hope that those who really want her out before 2010 should do their thing with extreme force. They should deal Arroyo a decisive defeat, and not allow her to recover. Otherwise, they may yet see themselves getting the brunt of the state power in case of another failed try.
As you see in my previous entries, forces are converging very fast against Gloria. There is a systematic destruction of state defenses via two modes: political re-alignments and neutralization of possible military opposition against the emerging movement. Now, what would trigger a situation which would possibly lead to Gloria's ouster? First, I believe that the anti-charter change interfaith rally will lead to Gloria's downfall if managed properly. If groups pull their punches and fein on lambasting her and not really throw everything at her administration before, during and after the rally, nothing will come out of it.
Remember--this rally is a barometer for both the pro-Arroyo and the anti-Arroyo. It is crucial for both groups. If this fails, expect a backlash against all anti-Arroyo groups. Expect political and economic futures to change for those who support this. Expect also a totalitarian regime of Arroyo. Arroyo will be able to use this as an occasion to immediately sweep all opposition and declare authoritarian rule. If this succeeds though, the political and even professional futures of those who stuck it out with Arroyo would also change dramatically. What we see now as our present political leaders may suffer a humiliating retirement once an attempt at the seat of power fails again.
What is also crucial for both groups is how they manage the information flow. Again, this will lead to a situation where he who holds media will be able to control time. What do I mean by this? If a group controls the information environment, he will now have the power to direct what path this would take. Will it go and influence the "swing forces"--those groups who will fence sit and will wait and observe who's winning? Or, will it be totally controlled by the state which, in this case, deprives the other side of their momentum and allows state security forces to move in and quell dissent.
Now, the possibility of this being a failure is still very high. One scenario that I'm praying not to happen is when Malacanang convinces Arroyo to publicly announce her intention not to run in 2010. If this happens, they'll be a split among the ranks of these groups behind the interfaith rally. Given the tenuous nature of this group, those who oppose Arroyo just because of the possibility of term extension would probably abandon the cause. This could dilute the qualitative character of the movement but could not possibly affect the outcome of things if, say, other events come into the picture. What are these elements and where will they emerge will again, be the subject of another post.
Showing posts with label dissent. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dissent. Show all posts
Friday, December 5, 2008
Sunday, September 23, 2007
ZTE mess being used to agitate troops? Aw c'mon!
I don't believe that destabilizers are that foolish in using the ZTE deal as a propaganda tool for another shot at freedom. The ZTE deal is obviously, a very weak issue for anti-GMA groups to use against the administration. Indeed, there is an on-going recruitment among various troops, as stated in news reports and confirmed even by AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Esperon. But, I don't think the soldiers will be convinced to join the destabilizers just because Malacanan is enmessed with the business deal of two big-time groups.
What I do know is this---if and when groups do spill into the streets against this administration, it will do so because things have reached boiling point. Yes, I believe there is now a revolutionary situation. However, this situation has not been brought up by the ZTE deal. No. This situation arose due to the following factors:
1. The July Basilan incident which led to the deaths of more than 50 soldiers.
2. Extra-judicial killings perpetuated by the state against its perceived enemies. This issue has resonated to the international community, making it very viable for anti-GMA groups to solicit support from foreign entities.
3. Uneven playing field in the business arena. This ZTE deal reflects the propensity of this administration to favor its cronies. Hence, local businessmen feel threatened especially the entry of Chinese products into the market. This further bolsters the ranks of anti-GMA groups.
Warning to this administration: the perceived silence of the middle class does not mean acquisence. It only means three things: (a) there is an undercurrent of dissent against the prevailing elite but has not managed to manifest itself into concrete action (b) disorganization and division on the part of anti-GMA groups and (c) lack of resources for mobilization. If these things are met and there is a right condition, then, the possibility of a power grab is high.
Possible Scenarios
1. Withdrawal of support from key officials allied with JDV-FVR-JoAL
2. Withdrawal of support from key military personnel, both active and retired
3. Possible clash between loyalist and anti-GMA forces
4. Possible flight in a foreign country by GMA and her clique.
5. Establishment of a revolutionary government (transitional)
ZTE mess being used to agitate troops’
By PERSEUS ECHEMINADA
The Philippine Star
Transportation and Communications Secretary Leandro Mendoza said Saturday groups out to destabilize the Arroyo administration are using the controversy on the national broadband network (NBN) deal with China’s ZTE Corp. to “agitate” government troops.
“The issue has become highly politicized that it’s now being circulated in the military camps to agitate the troops,” he said in a chance interview with The STAR in a restaurant at the Quezon Memorial Circle.
Mendoza said no less than Armed Forces chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr. has confirmed that there are indeed recruitment activities in military camps.
However, he said this move is doomed as the people are already fed up with moves to destabilize the government.
“Any attempt to oust President Arroyo at this point in time will not get support from the people. We advise these groups to wait for the 2010 elections,” he said.
He said personalities linked to the oust-GMA movement are the same people who are now trying to ride on the NBN controversy to trigger unrest on the streets.
He said the allegations of bribery and graft and corruption are now pending before the Office of the Ombudsman, while the issue on the validity of the contract is also pending before the Supreme Court.
“Let us uphold the rule of law, instead of getting out of the legal process,” he said.
Mrs. Arroyo suspended the NBN project indefinitely Saturday upon Mendoza’s recommendation. Also suspended was the Cyber Education program of the Department of Education.
The military and the police also see the NBN controversy as part of a move to undermine the Arroyo administration.
Sources in the military and police intelligence communities bared this following their threat assessment meeting held somewhere in Makati City Friday night.
“What started as a plain and casual quarrel among two business rivals had already transformed into a political controversy that now tends to undermine the security of the state,” one source said.
Meanwhile, talk of destabilization sent military and police officials jumping from their sleep Friday night following supposed disturbances at the Fort Bonifacio residence of former Army and AFP chief, retired Gen. Lisandro Abadia.
However, military and police intelligence operatives dispatched to Abadia’s place found nothing unusual in the area.
“It’s all disinformation,” an intelligence officer later told his superiors.
However, the AFP, not wanting to get caught with its pants down, called in two more battalions of troops to Metro Manila while the Philippine National Police deployed the Special Action Force (SAF) supported by several tanks in Camp Crame.
Army safe from recruitment
Maj. Gen. Jose Barbieto, commanding officer of the Army’s 4th Infantry Division based in Cagayan de Oro City, gave assurance that his men would not entertain any recruitment offers to destabilize the government.
Barbieto said his men are busy on counter-insurgency operations and vigilant against Abu Sayyaf terrorists that they can no longer entertain such illicit offers.
The 4th ID recently inked a pact with the PNP’s Northern Mindanao regional office for the police to have a more active role in counter-insurgency operations.
Barbieto said he does not need any loyalty checks on his troops. “My soldiers have always followed the Constitution and the chain of command,” he said.
Marines ‘vulnerable’
However, Marine Commandant Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ben Dolorfino said institutional cracks continue to put the Marine Corps as a vulnerable target for recruitment in any destabilization plot.
Dolorfino cited past events where Marines were involved in coup attempts.
“That is contrary to what our forefathers in the Marines have taught us… to be the cutting edge in the military organization,” he said.
Dolorfino, who stayed overnight in Basilan last Tuesday and in Sulu on Thursday, his first out-of-town visit since he was appointed as Marine commandant, wasted no time in weaving the cracks affecting the organization.
In an apparent confirmation of misbehavior, some of the Marine ground personnel commented behind his back that their commandant should have brought canned goods and other food supplies rather than notes and papers.
Dolorfino said that since the guilty verdict on former President Joseph Estrada for plunder, text messages of destabilization and recruitment have been circulating. – With Jaime Laude, Mark Francisco and Roel Pareño
What I do know is this---if and when groups do spill into the streets against this administration, it will do so because things have reached boiling point. Yes, I believe there is now a revolutionary situation. However, this situation has not been brought up by the ZTE deal. No. This situation arose due to the following factors:
1. The July Basilan incident which led to the deaths of more than 50 soldiers.
2. Extra-judicial killings perpetuated by the state against its perceived enemies. This issue has resonated to the international community, making it very viable for anti-GMA groups to solicit support from foreign entities.
3. Uneven playing field in the business arena. This ZTE deal reflects the propensity of this administration to favor its cronies. Hence, local businessmen feel threatened especially the entry of Chinese products into the market. This further bolsters the ranks of anti-GMA groups.
Warning to this administration: the perceived silence of the middle class does not mean acquisence. It only means three things: (a) there is an undercurrent of dissent against the prevailing elite but has not managed to manifest itself into concrete action (b) disorganization and division on the part of anti-GMA groups and (c) lack of resources for mobilization. If these things are met and there is a right condition, then, the possibility of a power grab is high.
Possible Scenarios
1. Withdrawal of support from key officials allied with JDV-FVR-JoAL
2. Withdrawal of support from key military personnel, both active and retired
3. Possible clash between loyalist and anti-GMA forces
4. Possible flight in a foreign country by GMA and her clique.
5. Establishment of a revolutionary government (transitional)
ZTE mess being used to agitate troops’
By PERSEUS ECHEMINADA
The Philippine Star
Transportation and Communications Secretary Leandro Mendoza said Saturday groups out to destabilize the Arroyo administration are using the controversy on the national broadband network (NBN) deal with China’s ZTE Corp. to “agitate” government troops.
“The issue has become highly politicized that it’s now being circulated in the military camps to agitate the troops,” he said in a chance interview with The STAR in a restaurant at the Quezon Memorial Circle.
Mendoza said no less than Armed Forces chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr. has confirmed that there are indeed recruitment activities in military camps.
However, he said this move is doomed as the people are already fed up with moves to destabilize the government.
“Any attempt to oust President Arroyo at this point in time will not get support from the people. We advise these groups to wait for the 2010 elections,” he said.
He said personalities linked to the oust-GMA movement are the same people who are now trying to ride on the NBN controversy to trigger unrest on the streets.
He said the allegations of bribery and graft and corruption are now pending before the Office of the Ombudsman, while the issue on the validity of the contract is also pending before the Supreme Court.
“Let us uphold the rule of law, instead of getting out of the legal process,” he said.
Mrs. Arroyo suspended the NBN project indefinitely Saturday upon Mendoza’s recommendation. Also suspended was the Cyber Education program of the Department of Education.
The military and the police also see the NBN controversy as part of a move to undermine the Arroyo administration.
Sources in the military and police intelligence communities bared this following their threat assessment meeting held somewhere in Makati City Friday night.
“What started as a plain and casual quarrel among two business rivals had already transformed into a political controversy that now tends to undermine the security of the state,” one source said.
Meanwhile, talk of destabilization sent military and police officials jumping from their sleep Friday night following supposed disturbances at the Fort Bonifacio residence of former Army and AFP chief, retired Gen. Lisandro Abadia.
However, military and police intelligence operatives dispatched to Abadia’s place found nothing unusual in the area.
“It’s all disinformation,” an intelligence officer later told his superiors.
However, the AFP, not wanting to get caught with its pants down, called in two more battalions of troops to Metro Manila while the Philippine National Police deployed the Special Action Force (SAF) supported by several tanks in Camp Crame.
Army safe from recruitment
Maj. Gen. Jose Barbieto, commanding officer of the Army’s 4th Infantry Division based in Cagayan de Oro City, gave assurance that his men would not entertain any recruitment offers to destabilize the government.
Barbieto said his men are busy on counter-insurgency operations and vigilant against Abu Sayyaf terrorists that they can no longer entertain such illicit offers.
The 4th ID recently inked a pact with the PNP’s Northern Mindanao regional office for the police to have a more active role in counter-insurgency operations.
Barbieto said he does not need any loyalty checks on his troops. “My soldiers have always followed the Constitution and the chain of command,” he said.
Marines ‘vulnerable’
However, Marine Commandant Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ben Dolorfino said institutional cracks continue to put the Marine Corps as a vulnerable target for recruitment in any destabilization plot.
Dolorfino cited past events where Marines were involved in coup attempts.
“That is contrary to what our forefathers in the Marines have taught us… to be the cutting edge in the military organization,” he said.
Dolorfino, who stayed overnight in Basilan last Tuesday and in Sulu on Thursday, his first out-of-town visit since he was appointed as Marine commandant, wasted no time in weaving the cracks affecting the organization.
In an apparent confirmation of misbehavior, some of the Marine ground personnel commented behind his back that their commandant should have brought canned goods and other food supplies rather than notes and papers.
Dolorfino said that since the guilty verdict on former President Joseph Estrada for plunder, text messages of destabilization and recruitment have been circulating. – With Jaime Laude, Mark Francisco and Roel Pareño
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