Lakas-Kampi merger, designed to fail?

Vice President Noli de Castro is in a bind. He's being courted left and right by traditional political parties, more importantly, by Lakas. Prospero Pichay, Lakas-CMD spokesman said that Noli is the top choice for their party. What will Loren say about that?

With the NPC moving towards Kampi while the Nacionalista moves closer to Lakas, a Noli de Castro might spoil the broth. NPC mulls on pitting either a Chiz Escudero or a Loren to the presidential fight. While Nacionalista obviously guns for Villar.

Like what we predicted in earlier entries, Noli might opt to go independent or join Lakas. The most likely scenario is Noli declared as Lakas standard bearer even without Kampi joining Lakas. Kampi is quite committed to NPC which is likely going for Chiz instead of Loren. Chiz is turning 40 years old, a necessary requirement if he wants to be president. Loren might have to settle for the VP again, or worst, seek re-election as senator.

Liberal party is moving for Mar Roxas. The faction of DENR secretary Lito Atienza is reportedly joining either Lakas or Kampi, but quarters insist Atienza favors Kampi more than Lakas. In a Lakas-Kampi coalition, should it push thru, we will see a Lakas-Kampi merger as the major political party, coalesced with the Atienza Liberal faction, Villar's Nacionalista and NPC. That will be the most formidable party ever, if Gabby Claudio succeeds in fixing the possibly problems at the grassroots level.

Should a merger succeeds, then, we will see a Noli-Villar tandem, with Villar as vice presidential bet. Villar is reportedly sick and is open to this option. If this happens, a possible split will happen between NPC and Kampi, since NPC would probably want Chiz to be standard bearer.

In all likelihood, these maneuvers will probably lead to Lakas-Kampi self-destructing prior to 2010, leaving the traditional parties Liberal and Nacionalista dominating the elections. Not cash scrapped, Liberal and/or Nacionalista could give Lakas or Kampi a run for their money.