Revolt Triggers

So, basing on my studies, what would trigger a mass upheaval that would seriously threaten the very existence and even cause the definitive downfall of this evil regime?

Two things---hopelessness due to extreme poverty in the provinces and mass exodus of people from the rural areas to the metropolitan areas.

Take a hard look at the numbers of Mrs. Arroyo's trust ratings. According to Pulse Asia, Mrs. Arroyo just lost the Visayas and the Mindanao areas. In the Visayas, Mrs. Arroyo lost 5 percentage points, a significant drop in trust. Mindanao, she lost 1 percentage points. Overall, PulseAsia observes, no significant difference. But, per regional grouping, that shows a very serious problem to Mrs. Arroyo and for the entire government as well.

Why so? Because these trust ratings indicate not just Mrs. Arroyo's numbers but the overall perception of the people about their government. From March 2008 to February 2009, the comparative trust rating of Mrs. Arroyo dived to 18 percentage points and 10 points in the Visayas and Mindanao, respectively, two areas which are previously considered as bailiwicks of Mrs. Arroyo.

Now, what are the reasons behind the drop? If you look at the poverty incidences and hunger prevalence in these areas, there were considerable and alarming rates of increase (NSCB stats March 2009). Hunger due to poverty is spreading like wildfire in many portions of the population. That recent survey allegedly showing hunger prevalence dropping to 19% is deceptive to say the least since it was conducted at the height of OFW remittances.

Yet, if we are to observe the perceptions of people now, we'll find that poverty and hunger do count as the most serious societal problems now. Obviously, government knows this and is trying to solve the problem. However, everyone knows in the business community especially ,that government does not have enough resources to support a ballooning number of unemployed and recent victims of job cuts. Jess Aranza is simply doing a morale-boasting effort when he said that government is capable of providing between 5-10,000 pesos of subsidies per month per displaced worker. He knows pretty well that the money has been allocated to the trillion peso budget which government thinks would re-energize an overly depressed economic environment.

Now, what has prevented people so far from going to the streets and ousting this regime is the fact that there is still some margins present for hope. Yes, pessimism has seeped into the collective consciousness but it has'nt ripen yet into collective angst. People feel that there is still some hope there, even if reality shows there's really none. Government has been quite successful in managing this crisis simply with the use of its resources in media. News programs have been providing coping mechanisms or "tips to survive the economic crisis" in their news lineups for people to remain hopeful of their state.

At some point, people affected by this economic crisis would reach a near-end conclusion of hopelessness. The evident sign would be mass exodus of people from the rural areas to the urban centers. When that happens, things would get extremely worse especially when these displaced workers realize that the situation in the urban areas are worse than in their provinces.

It is but natural for hopeless people to get out of their depressed zones and search for an outlet to express their dissent. This would definitely show up in the incidence rates of petty crimes, increase in domestic violence, rise in disputes between neighbors and increase in rebelliousness. It would be most prevalent in the hot months ("summer") when both economic stresses and societal problems come to a definitive sociological synthesis.

Obviously, food demands increase in summer because of the additional nutrient requirements of people. Couple this with pressures to pay an increased rate of electricity, water and LPG and you have a very explosive situation that demands State security counter-measures.

In these "hot" months, people would be open to suggestions of dissent and open rebellion. If this passes, opportunities for revolt would again present itself in the periods of June-July, October going to December, though, I'm in the opinion that should no open revolt happens in the hot months and this revolutionary itch passes onto November, there may never be another chance to replace Arroyo.