SON NA ANG PAGBABAGO (Where's the Transformation)?

President Benigno Aquino III's speech lacked the power needed to really change society. It also lacks substance. If you read it, it is an attempt to replicate the powerful speeches of US President Barack Obama. Good, however, it turned out to be a mis-mash.


The State of the Nation Address of Aquino was actually a brief departamental report of the performances of several divisions. Aquino reported how several divisions (i.e., DFA, DOE, DOTC, etc) performed during the last year. There were bright spots like his claims that the government were able to save this and that, but it is clearly evident that Aquino deliberately missed several of the main and most crucial issues bedeviling this Nation since Day One.


Aquino never mentioned about the progress of peace talks in Mindanao. Yes, you may have credit upgrades up to seven times, but with just one incident in Mindanao and all would be lost. 


Aquino boasts of building new roads and bridges, but without farmers owning their own lands, how would they be productive enough to even plant those rice and harvest them and take them to markets?


He mentioned that 1.6 million jobs were created but he never did mention if these are full-time positions or casuals. He talked about renewing foreign investor confidence but he never mentioned those problems pointed out by the foreign chambers that is the continued red tape and bureaucratic bullshits that choke the life out of foreign investors.


He says that self-rated poverty went down to about 15% from 25%, but he never mentioned that this reflects the higher sociological impact of the people, not the true state of poverty incidence. Poverty incidence remains very high and in fact, has risen a couple of notches since January 2011.


The only concrete thing he mentioned was the Spratlys issue that while we seek for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, we nonetheless, find ways of re-equipping our naval forces with some sophisticated equipment like ships and air power. 


For the SONA to really be effective, it must answer the question SON NA ang Pagbabago? (Where are the changes?).


A true SONA tells us what reality really is. Every Filipino will face every problem like a man. I believe that it will not hurt if Aquino tried to really say what the root cause of the problems is.


Aquino should have levelled off with the Filipino, and while doing that, provided much needed solutions to the systemic problems of the country. It will not be a shame if Aquino told the people that these problems remain because of a bloated bureaucracy lumbering about while the world changes. That the system is really the true problem, Aquino should have mentioned that. Aquino should have admitted that the reason why changes are very slow stems from the fact that the system itself prevents changes from happening. 


Arroyo was brave enough to tell this to foreign investors and several other Philippine legislators before. People expect Aquino to be better than Arroyo. 


In short, that one hour speech was not just malamya but walang bayag.

Lozano: Spate of Heinous crimes part of destab? C'mon!

Atty. Oliver Lozano who lost his son in the spate of heinous crimes last week believes that his son was killed as "part of a destabilization effort" to discredit the new administration. 


Bull. Crap. Yan ka na naman Atty. 


Admit it---the rise of criminality is linked to the worsening economic situation. Many people are desperate. Many people now resort to crimes such as carjacking to support the economic needs of their families. 


Anti-Aquino groups don't need a wrecking crew to discredit the administration. This administration is self-destructing anyway.


The only bright spot that this administration is doing is related to the peace process. The Office of the Presidential adviser on the Peace Process Teresita Deles is doing an excellent job. The rest are just enriching themselves while in office. 


For one, the Aquino administration allowed a very business-minded man as head of the PNP. Bacalzo is known as a man of "business savvy" (you know what I mean), instead of someone who will buckle down to work and cleanse this country of criminality.


Second, you don't need a group that will do despicable crimes to show how despicable the state of the nation is. For one, the rise of prices of almost every single thing in the market is more despicable than seeing the charred remains of some victim of crime. Disinheriting someone of the power to purchase an essential thing which comprises his humanity, is the most despicable crime. Poverty is the most heinous crime ever. The spread of poverty is the spread of inhumanity. When poverty incidences rise, inhumanity rises with it. When inhumanity exists, it likewise shows alienation. 


Third, whenever people see hopelessness rise and people feel that they have limited options to survive, they will do these things out of desperation and out of expressing their outrage against the system. 


Poor people see the break down of law and order more clearly than what middle class people see. The proletarian class bears the brunt of economic disorder. Those of the lowest class--the  lumpen proletariat--sees the breakdown as a sign for systemic disruption. 


Crime is but a reaction to the existing socio-economic condition. Deviance of the laws of the elite is partly the product of unequal power relations and inequality in general. It is an understandable response to the poverty situation. 


Are we now seeing a silent revolution from the loins of the lumpen proletariat and in the future, the proletariat himself?


Are we now seeing the beginnings of the phenomenon we saw in EDSA tres, where the poorest of the poor staged the most violent people-led mass action against the State?

Revolt Triggers

So, basing on my studies, what would trigger a mass upheaval that would seriously threaten the very existence and even cause the definitive downfall of this evil regime?

Two things---hopelessness due to extreme poverty in the provinces and mass exodus of people from the rural areas to the metropolitan areas.

Take a hard look at the numbers of Mrs. Arroyo's trust ratings. According to Pulse Asia, Mrs. Arroyo just lost the Visayas and the Mindanao areas. In the Visayas, Mrs. Arroyo lost 5 percentage points, a significant drop in trust. Mindanao, she lost 1 percentage points. Overall, PulseAsia observes, no significant difference. But, per regional grouping, that shows a very serious problem to Mrs. Arroyo and for the entire government as well.

Why so? Because these trust ratings indicate not just Mrs. Arroyo's numbers but the overall perception of the people about their government. From March 2008 to February 2009, the comparative trust rating of Mrs. Arroyo dived to 18 percentage points and 10 points in the Visayas and Mindanao, respectively, two areas which are previously considered as bailiwicks of Mrs. Arroyo.

Now, what are the reasons behind the drop? If you look at the poverty incidences and hunger prevalence in these areas, there were considerable and alarming rates of increase (NSCB stats March 2009). Hunger due to poverty is spreading like wildfire in many portions of the population. That recent survey allegedly showing hunger prevalence dropping to 19% is deceptive to say the least since it was conducted at the height of OFW remittances.

Yet, if we are to observe the perceptions of people now, we'll find that poverty and hunger do count as the most serious societal problems now. Obviously, government knows this and is trying to solve the problem. However, everyone knows in the business community especially ,that government does not have enough resources to support a ballooning number of unemployed and recent victims of job cuts. Jess Aranza is simply doing a morale-boasting effort when he said that government is capable of providing between 5-10,000 pesos of subsidies per month per displaced worker. He knows pretty well that the money has been allocated to the trillion peso budget which government thinks would re-energize an overly depressed economic environment.

Now, what has prevented people so far from going to the streets and ousting this regime is the fact that there is still some margins present for hope. Yes, pessimism has seeped into the collective consciousness but it has'nt ripen yet into collective angst. People feel that there is still some hope there, even if reality shows there's really none. Government has been quite successful in managing this crisis simply with the use of its resources in media. News programs have been providing coping mechanisms or "tips to survive the economic crisis" in their news lineups for people to remain hopeful of their state.

At some point, people affected by this economic crisis would reach a near-end conclusion of hopelessness. The evident sign would be mass exodus of people from the rural areas to the urban centers. When that happens, things would get extremely worse especially when these displaced workers realize that the situation in the urban areas are worse than in their provinces.

It is but natural for hopeless people to get out of their depressed zones and search for an outlet to express their dissent. This would definitely show up in the incidence rates of petty crimes, increase in domestic violence, rise in disputes between neighbors and increase in rebelliousness. It would be most prevalent in the hot months ("summer") when both economic stresses and societal problems come to a definitive sociological synthesis.

Obviously, food demands increase in summer because of the additional nutrient requirements of people. Couple this with pressures to pay an increased rate of electricity, water and LPG and you have a very explosive situation that demands State security counter-measures.

In these "hot" months, people would be open to suggestions of dissent and open rebellion. If this passes, opportunities for revolt would again present itself in the periods of June-July, October going to December, though, I'm in the opinion that should no open revolt happens in the hot months and this revolutionary itch passes onto November, there may never be another chance to replace Arroyo.

Blog Action Day: Poverty is lack of governmental vision

There are four million Filipino families who are now victims of a worsening economy. With some 250,000 Filipinos here and abroad expected to lose their jobs due to the global recession, we expect this 4 million figure to further soar. Government says preparations are underway to assist those who will go back here. Truly ironic since the very reason why these Pinoys went abroad in the first place is the fact that they really found nothing to do here.

Government plans to train expatriated Pinoys to setup their own businesses. Entrepreneurship is the key against poverty, government says. But this is just for OFWs. How about those who stayed behind? Will government help them as well?

For those who stayed here, government plans to just give them subsidies. By November, however, those 500 peso per family subsidies are to be stopped. Lack of funds, government says. How will they survive?

The problem with us is we have a government that lacks a vision. Government should have been planning for contingencies. Government should have been thinking about expanding credit markets to accommodate those who want to setup their own businesses.

The Right Solution

The Philippines has placed tenth in the Global Bribery survey. Transparency International said in its report that the poor are the most hit in the worsening graft crisis ever to hit the country. The World Bank meanwhile said that poverty incidence has increased in the Philippines despite what the Arroyo administration says as the best economic performance ever. What do all these mean?

It means that these economic gains generated by a revitalized economy are not spilling over the masses but are being dissipated by corrupt groups in government. Those who control the levers of power are the ones benefiting from this inequality. Wealth continues to be concentrated in the hands of a few lucky ones close to the center of power. The disparity, says the World Bank, between the rich and the poor has increased because the system does not have the right spillover mechanism to enable the poor to at least get a slice of the economic gains.

This explains why the Philippines rank a close second to India in terms of the number of pessimistic people. Despite having a “sunshine” economy, most Pinoys are not happy. If you study the surveys, many are desperate and feel depressed. Many feel that they have nowhere to turn to. Since 1986, the people have searched in vain for the right solution. Always, the people fail to find one.

Those who don’t suffer the brunt of high prices or are insulated from the ravages of extreme poverty, they are the ones who discourage the people to revolt. For these few, the solution is still Gandhian. When you’re being killed slowly, will you still say “peace brother”? And by entertaining these thoughts, can you then be classified as a “coup plotter”, “ a war freak” or a “peace wrecker”?

Eventually, I believe, people will look at the palace and blame it for their current poverty. In dire times, people need to point on something or look at one direction to place the blame at. I shudder at the thought of seeing one day when poor people kill the rich because of their wealth. It has happened before in other countries.

Saving this country from chaos necessitates a collective effort. It may not be a coup. It definitely cannot be a revolt. It should be a pronunciamento. This could be the solution everybody is lusting for.