Erap's Options: Last in a series

As I wrote in the preceding entry, a De Castro run for the presidency will surely lead to an Opposition victory in 2010, since his campaign will run rough-shod any administration-backed campaign. De Castro has the same, yet bigger constituency than Teodoro's or Gordon's and it will be a repeat of the 1998 scenario, where the incumbent party lost by a mile against the counter-elite (I am wont to describe Erap as "opposition" since in 1998, he ran for the presidency from the V-P platform)

Now, who among the opposition will most likely benefit from a fractured administration front?

To answer this, we need to assess the strengths of the machineries of Liberal Party, the Nationalist People's Coalition and Erap's group. In terms of resources, the Liberal Party enjoys more resources than the NPC. Of course, if LP is ranged against Erap's group, the Erap faction is bigger.

Now, how to transform the LP from a minimal player to a bigger one? Simple. The Liberal Party has to fracture Erap's faction. It can be achieved in two ways: encourage or gather support from Lacson's and take away NGO and PO support from the Erap group. Lacson announced that he'll be running for the presidency come 2010. Even if he does not team up with Mar Roxas that is enough to frustrate Erap's organization, since, we all know what happened in 2004.

A Roxas-Lacson would be positioned as the true opposition, which will marginalize Erap's. Now, what will happen to the NPC? That is a big question. I'll gather more information about this, but, surely, they'll also be marginalized.

Going back to Erap, I think the option that is sure for them is get Villar to team up with Jinggoy Estrada. That will give them more muscle. If Erap runs, will he repeat his phenomenal victory in 1998? The most likely outcome is still sketchy since it would now depend on the horizontal size of his grassroots organization. But initial analysis shows that Erap will not be able to get the outcome he wants. First, if he decides to run, the administration will go after him. And lastly, it is still anybody's guess if he still has the political clout to begin with.

Now, should Villar really team up with Jinggoy and not with De Castro (as earlier surmised), then, he stands to gain more and probably would give Roxas a run for their money. De Castro would probably run independent and coalesce with another independent, Kiko Pangilinan.

To recap:

1. If LAKAS-KAMPI CMD fails to get De Castro as standard bearer, the administration commits the 1998 faux pas and risks marginalization. This paves the way for an opposition win.

2. If LAKAS-KAMPI CMD gets De Castro, the administration wins only if the opposition does not field a unified candidate. In a 3-cornered fight, the opposition still wins. However, in a one administration bet fighting 3-4 opposition bets, chances of winning goes to the administration.

3. If De Castro runs outside LAKAS-KAMPI CMD and coalesce with Villar's group, he still loses to an opposition bet. Mar Roxas stands to gain at this scenario, especially if Lacson decides to run either coalesced with him or runs independent. A Lacson campaign will neutralize Erap's faction, a repeat of the 2004 elections. It is now in the best interests of Mar, should he really decide to go all-out, to marginalize Erap's group by getting the base support and get all those NGO's and PO's behind him.

4. If De Castro runs outside of Lakas, coalesce with Villar and Lakas-Kampi CMD fields Teodoro, they will all lose to Mar Roxas provided that Lacson runs and Erap fields his own candidate or himself. If Erap decides to run, he risks losing both his political clout especially his stature as a kingmaker.

5. Lastly, if the opposition fields one candidate and the administration rally one, opposition wins. If administration fields one candidate, and another one runs a parallel campaign, and the opposition fields at least two to four candidates, a minority bet will win not on the strength of a party machinery but through sheer charisma and PR. This is very dangerous since it opens up the country to chaos and possibly, extra-judicial term extension.