China continues to show might in Spratlys Islands

While our defense officials "defend" their plan to acquire military equipment from China, the region's economic powerhouse continues to develop its weak claim to the Spratlys islands by building more sovereign structures.


Last October, the Philippine Air Force showed a newly constructed lighthouse in one of the reef islands claimed by the Philippines. The 20x20 structure sits on top of the Zamora reef which is about 26 kilometers away from the town of Kalayaan, a recognized municipality of Palawan. From stilt structures, China has built massive structures that show how the economic giant intends to fortify its claim over the rest of the 160 islands and islets comprising the Spratlys group.


Beside China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and Taiwan are claiming the island group as their own. The Philippines claims nine of the 53 islands inside the perceived oil-rich archipelago. There are about 160 islands altogether.


The Spratlys island group is one of the possible flashpoints in the region. These islands were discovered by the Philippines but because of the weakness of the state, the claims were slowly weakened and other countries have entered into the picture. All claimants have built their own structures there, in defiance to the Philippines which claims the entire archipelago. 


What will the Aquino administration do? Will it allow China to continues its illegal occupation of these islands? 

The most expensive and the Most Violent elections in Phil History

Two things mark this May 10, 2010---the most expensive and the most violent. Inspite of the financial and economic crisis that we are suffering, most candidates are spending more than 1 billion pesos already, of course, being led by who else but the country's real estate magnate, Senator Manny Villar of the Nacionalista party. Records show he already spent 2 billion at least, two months ahead of the elections.

Okey with me if most of these went to feed the hungry, clothe the oppressed with justice and warmed the bodies of the widows. But no. These monies went to advertising, media placement and media networks. So, who did Manny Villar helped but those already awash with cash.

Imagine, where will he get the money to regain 2 billion pesos? Probably, he'll tell us that he has business partners who share the costs with him. Okey, so who are these partners? May we know so that we'll know who will probably benefit under a Villar administration?

And this is, by far, the most violent elections ever in Philippine history. The Philippine National Police has reported ninety five people killed, the most was that gruesome massacre in Maguindanao.

Both issues, if you'll analyze them very closely, is a problem of supervision. In overspending, the Comelec and the BIR are responsible for monitoring them, but sadly, they don't have the muscle nor the personnel to actually implement the law.

These politically-motivated killings are also part of the problem of supervision. The 140,000 strong police force are still insufficient to counter more than 10,000 armed groups, since most of these cops are being utilized to fight criminal syndicates (and some being used as security guards of the rich and famous).

The real problem actually lies in what people think of their respective roles in Philippine society. If, for example, people, especially candidates for elective posts, exercise self-regulation, overspending will not be a problem at all, since most will expect others to follow the same rules of the game.

If people respect the very sanctity and importance of life, he will not kill nor even think of killing another in the name of Sanctus Politio.

Hence, the very problem lies in the frames of mind of people. If people have the proper frames of reference, then, there is no need for stricter monitoring nor supervising things.

Noynoy Aquino's supporters talk with Danding Cojuangco---WHY?

When Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino went up the stage and accepted the nomination of the Liberal Party for him to become its standard bearer, he categorically stated that he'll run like a non-trapo. Meaning, he will not wheel deal, the same way trapos do come election time. He will not compromise the People's Agenda for change. He campaigns for principles and a non-trapo never goes to bed with former Marcos cronies or former grafters.

Yet, it's surprising why Noynoy right now is being seen confering with former president Joseph Estrada or allowing his supporters to talk with Danding Cojuangco. In fact, in that very same Inquirer article, Noynoy is quoted of having said that he expects talks with the Cojuangco camp to continue. Same expectation with that of Estrada's camps.

That I sincerely do not understand. If Noynoy is indeed strong, why compromise? If Noynoy and his Liberals have the numbers, then, why talk with cronies and businessmen with political ambitions? Is'nt enough for Noynoy to have a Mar Roxas y Araneta beside him? Why go to Danding and explore talks? Is Noynoy afraid of Chiz Escudero?

This is very dangerous. If Noynoy and his supporters behave this way, and at this early juncture, what kind of compromises did they enter themselves into? We simply don't know. What other compromises did they agree with Cojuangco or other political kingmakers whom they already met? And why do they need to talk to these people?

Are the people not enough for Noynoy to make him win?

Cory's Funeral March: Biggest in 21st Century

It was the biggest funeral march of the 21st century, a fitting tribute and a huge expression of love and thanks to the one woman, the only one, who taught us how to be Filipinos again.

More than a million Filipinos witnessed Cory's funeral march. At exactly 11 in the morning, after an elaborate and heart warming send off, the casket bearing the remains of the Philippines' greatest democracy icon was given full military honors and laid to a truck decked with thousands of flowers. The distance between Manila Cathedral and the Manila Memorial Park is just 22 kilometers, enough for an hour or so of drive.

Yet, the cortege took nearly eight to ten hours to reach the park. The sheer number of people who turned out to bid Cory goodbye easily reached millions. Authorities tried to fool us by saying that those crowds were just a fraction of a million, an attempt by this government to lessen the historical significance of this event. But, we cannot be fooled this time.

Everyone saw how thousands upon thousands went out of their homes to see Cory and utter a prayer for her. Millions watched her on television and millions more read about the event and followed her on twitter and the net. ABS-CBN said that they got more than 80,000 tweets from 11am to 2pm and I'm sure that by the time it ended, tweets would have reached a million too.

There were a million clicks of cameras, a million prayers uttered and millions more of chants of her name. The sheer banality of it all leaves one thinking if there will still be another one such as this.

Cory touched every one of us because she's the exact opposite of the one who rules us now. People even remarked that Cory deserves this huge expression of love. Hindi lang natin maisip ngayon kung ilan ang dadalo sa libing ni Gloria Arroyo. Baka nga wala.

These numbers here, in the streets, is also the clearest expression of rage, of disgusts and of silent anger against the Arroyo administration. Many people here vowed never to go to Arroyo's wake nor her burial.

Lahat tayo, mamamatay.

Let me share with you some scenes which I took when the cortege went pass our house in Makati. For my fellow Filipino Patriots who live abroad---bumalik na kayo sa Inang Bayan. Panahon na para itama ang kamalian.

The State of the Nation under Arroyo

Over at the New Philippine Revolution, a new online news magazine blog, there is a comprehensive report on the State of the Nation Under Arroyo. This report assesses the Arroyo administration using the lenses of other think tanks. It is a unbiased assessment from the time she seized political power from former president Joseph Estrada to the time she addresses the nation and reports her achievements.

Support http://www.newphilrevolution.com. And the new Filipino user generated news blog http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com.

Manila archbiship Gaudencio Rosales today urged Arroyo to tell the truth. It's best, says Rosales, that Arroyo reveals the unblemished truth on the state of the nation so that everyone especially the next administration, would know what to do next.

But, will Arroyo heed the church call and show the Filipinos the true state of the nation? I doubt it, especially now that Mrs. Arroyo would face US president Barack Obama. Surely, that would spoil the broth, so to speak, since, as what the Washington Times said, echoing the previous statement by NPR, that the visit would just be a political subterfuge by Arroyo. Even the Americans know that it was a bad judgment call by the White House in inviting Arroyo. If they're so concerned with terrorism in Asia, the White House should have invited Indonesia instead.

Political Stability in the Philippines

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Total Solar Eclipse to last 6 minutes--longest in 21st Century

(update)

People from China already saw the solar eclipse and what I know, the natural phenomenon is being watched right now by people from Japan and the Asian micro-islands. (photo on the left was taken in China this morning.)

The natural phenomenon started this 8:25 am and will last until 11:25am--a full 3 hours at least. However, the real thing, meaning the eclipse itself will only last 6 minutes, the longest one in this century.

Here in the Philippines, terrorists exploited the situation by bombing Cotabato City. Two people died and scores injured today.

Here, we will just see a partial one. The last time it happened was in 1999, yet Europe was the one who saw that.

The last time that we experienced a total solar eclipse was last 18 March 1988. The whole of Mindanao saw that. The photo on the left was taken by a Japanese photographer in Davao in 1988. (previous dates were May 9, 1929 and June 20, 1955).

I remember that it was in 1988 when numerous cults went out of their "caves" and forecasted the end of the world. My family was "victimized" by one. My grandmother, a devout Catholic, pasted numerous papers with Latin words in the four corners of our house at that time. What was the political and social circumstances in our country in 1988?

Well, we were under the tumultuous administration of Cory Aquino. Elements of the military were threatening to launch another coup against her (surely they did in 1989---the longest and the bloodliest coup in Philippine history). It was also in 1988, when the Economist interviewed the Marcoses who expressed their desire to return to the Philippines (March 5, 1988 edition). A revinvigorated CPP-NPA-NDF was on the height of their Protracted People's War and the military was busy killing insurgents and arresting people suspected of supporting the revolutionaries. And Mt. Bulusan was spewing small ash and stone projectiles in the sky, which eventually led to an eruption.

Ancient Chinese writers say that solar eclipses are bad omens daw. It precedes major political and economic events.

Erap's Options: Last in a series

As I wrote in the preceding entry, a De Castro run for the presidency will surely lead to an Opposition victory in 2010, since his campaign will run rough-shod any administration-backed campaign. De Castro has the same, yet bigger constituency than Teodoro's or Gordon's and it will be a repeat of the 1998 scenario, where the incumbent party lost by a mile against the counter-elite (I am wont to describe Erap as "opposition" since in 1998, he ran for the presidency from the V-P platform)

Now, who among the opposition will most likely benefit from a fractured administration front?

To answer this, we need to assess the strengths of the machineries of Liberal Party, the Nationalist People's Coalition and Erap's group. In terms of resources, the Liberal Party enjoys more resources than the NPC. Of course, if LP is ranged against Erap's group, the Erap faction is bigger.

Now, how to transform the LP from a minimal player to a bigger one? Simple. The Liberal Party has to fracture Erap's faction. It can be achieved in two ways: encourage or gather support from Lacson's and take away NGO and PO support from the Erap group. Lacson announced that he'll be running for the presidency come 2010. Even if he does not team up with Mar Roxas that is enough to frustrate Erap's organization, since, we all know what happened in 2004.

A Roxas-Lacson would be positioned as the true opposition, which will marginalize Erap's. Now, what will happen to the NPC? That is a big question. I'll gather more information about this, but, surely, they'll also be marginalized.

Going back to Erap, I think the option that is sure for them is get Villar to team up with Jinggoy Estrada. That will give them more muscle. If Erap runs, will he repeat his phenomenal victory in 1998? The most likely outcome is still sketchy since it would now depend on the horizontal size of his grassroots organization. But initial analysis shows that Erap will not be able to get the outcome he wants. First, if he decides to run, the administration will go after him. And lastly, it is still anybody's guess if he still has the political clout to begin with.

Now, should Villar really team up with Jinggoy and not with De Castro (as earlier surmised), then, he stands to gain more and probably would give Roxas a run for their money. De Castro would probably run independent and coalesce with another independent, Kiko Pangilinan.

To recap:

1. If LAKAS-KAMPI CMD fails to get De Castro as standard bearer, the administration commits the 1998 faux pas and risks marginalization. This paves the way for an opposition win.

2. If LAKAS-KAMPI CMD gets De Castro, the administration wins only if the opposition does not field a unified candidate. In a 3-cornered fight, the opposition still wins. However, in a one administration bet fighting 3-4 opposition bets, chances of winning goes to the administration.

3. If De Castro runs outside LAKAS-KAMPI CMD and coalesce with Villar's group, he still loses to an opposition bet. Mar Roxas stands to gain at this scenario, especially if Lacson decides to run either coalesced with him or runs independent. A Lacson campaign will neutralize Erap's faction, a repeat of the 2004 elections. It is now in the best interests of Mar, should he really decide to go all-out, to marginalize Erap's group by getting the base support and get all those NGO's and PO's behind him.

4. If De Castro runs outside of Lakas, coalesce with Villar and Lakas-Kampi CMD fields Teodoro, they will all lose to Mar Roxas provided that Lacson runs and Erap fields his own candidate or himself. If Erap decides to run, he risks losing both his political clout especially his stature as a kingmaker.

5. Lastly, if the opposition fields one candidate and the administration rally one, opposition wins. If administration fields one candidate, and another one runs a parallel campaign, and the opposition fields at least two to four candidates, a minority bet will win not on the strength of a party machinery but through sheer charisma and PR. This is very dangerous since it opens up the country to chaos and possibly, extra-judicial term extension.

The Battle in December

Two bishops have called upon the people to join the mammoth rally this Sunday, November 30, 2008. Heeding the clarion call, the Makati Business Club (MBC) and other civil society groups are also calling for people to go to the streets and protest the current efforts of this administration to extend Gloria's term.

A few days prior, detained Senator Antonio Trillianes called upon the people to support the impeachment complaint against Gloria. Saying it's the last legal option to oust the Pinay anti-Christ, Trillianes says it is still possible for the democratic soldiers to "intervene" into this political mess and rectify these errors wrought against the people by this evil administration.

Question that everybody is asking--will there be a realization of the People's dream for the ouster of Gloria? Rumours say, a big event will happen on the 28th of November, the day when Gloria comes back from her Latin American trip. Others say, the 30th of this month will signal a week-long "Revolution of Hope" and would culminate with Gloria's ouster.

Observing what's happening, I think that the thirtieth will just be the proverbial first shout that would culminate to Gloria's eventual ouster before January 2009. There are very auspicious signs which point to a weakening of Gloria's defenses by December 2008. The apex of the people's sentiments may be reached next month as Congress formalizes the killing of the impeachment, a symbolic act which could trigger widespread dissillusionment and cause the justification of a December affair.

Or, it could be prolonged to January of next year. If the forces against Gloria succeeds in ousting her in January or weaken her pro-cha-cha forces in the first quarter of 2009, kiss charter change goodbye. People behind Gloria will definitely not be able to implement their dastardly plot in summer, since there will not be sufficient time to effect charter change.

Unbeknownest to Gloria, the more anti-charter change proponents delay the hearing of the cha-cha proposals, the lesser the prospects for Gloria to extend her term. Surely, they cannot ram cha-cha in June of 2009 simply because Congressmen will be busy by then for their re-election campaign. So, the critical months begins in December and ends in March 2009 or the month where Congress adjourns. However, there is another card which Gloria's minions are contemplating and that is the emergency power card. These Malacanang hawks will try to implement black operations, will try to portray lawlessness in the Metro and in Mindanao and justify it. Like charter change, however, they are also pressed for time since they need to muster enough support from the AFP to do this. Surely, the defense secretary will not be a party to this, since Danding's party, if reports are to be believed, is aligning itself with the JDV-FVR faction in Lakas.

CBCP condemns Arroyo for corruption

The Catholic Bishop's Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) just released a strongly worded condemnation of the Arroyo regime. CBCP head Archbishop Angel Lagdameo condemned the Arroyo regime for doing nothing to fight corruption. Lagdameo urged the people to act now and change the government.

This, by far, according to Ricky Carandang, is the strongest denunciation ever by the CBCP against Arroyo. Do we see a snowball of dissent against this regime, with Bolante's arrival as the starting point? Hopefully, yes. 

The rise of the New Patriots have begun. 

On second thought...maybe the CBCP is just muscle flexing so that Arroyo strictly followed what she promised---a veto against the Reproductive Health Bill? 

Is this another stunt to show Arroyo that CBCP has the numbers and the power of mischief to force Gloria to choose the CBCP over globalist reproductive health bill lobbyists?

A Revolutionary Situation

What are the conditions that constitute a revolutionary situation? Applying chaos theory and studying Philippine history, we find that majority of revolts that occurred in the Philippines were caused by a sudden rise in food costs. Filipinos, a sociological study reveals, may tolerate political infractions or even some form of corruption. When faced with a prospect of hunger, which, we find to be not of our own making, but attributable to government, we revolt. We observe these during the Spanish, American and even in the Japanese occupation periods.

Second, Filipinos revolt when government exercises extreme unwarranted and irrational control over their lives. And third, we find Filipinos taking part in revolts when led by a figure or a group of personalities perceived to have been victims of injustices themselves.

Anyone who can put forward a swift solution to the crisis in food and gasoline affecting this country right now deserves the top post now or in 2010. What Filipinos need right now is their own version of a Lenin. The existing conditions are ripe for an outbreak of dissent. Why?

1. Most of us are angry or desperate because the start of classes is just around the corner.
2. High food prices are causing so much strain and problems even in middle class families.
3. Politicians seems to be the cause of the problem, most of the people believe.
4. Too much politicking is being perceived as causing all these problems.

Gloria is lucky that we don't have somebody right now who encapsulates a Pinoy Lenin. Otherwise, she's out.

GMA as destabilizer? Threat of Terrorism

After GMA left for Switzerland yesterday, AFP Chief of Staff Esperon, PNP Chief Razon, DOJ Secretary cRaul(o) Gonzales, Defense Secretary Danding Cojuangco, err Secretary pamangkin of the biggest Marcos crony and even InSecurity Adviser Gonzales immediately downgraded the threat alert they have announced a few days ago. The lapdogs said, there's no more threat, no more destabilization.

Hehehe. So, GMA is the destabilizer? For these people, you need to read between the lines.

What these idiots want us to believe--if GMA is here, there's always a threat of destabilization. If GMA is out, there's none. What a way to send a message to their boss.

Seriously, my media colleagues should NOT, I say again, should NOT be a party to the pronouncements of this group of lapdogs. I mean, doing so, we make ourselves a party to their foolishness. These people have no hiya anymore. I mean, if they have at least some semblance of hiya, they would not spread these rumours around like they're gospel truth.

This is what I am saying.

IF THE PHILIPPINES HAVE THESE KINDS OF MILITARY AND SECURITY OFFICIALS, IT SHOWS YOU HOW INEPT THIS GOVERNMENT IS IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM.

FOR THE US, THIS IS MY MESSAGE: YOU SHOULD URGE THE PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT TO REPLACE THESE PEOPLE. WHY? BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO CREDIBILITY ANYMORE. WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW? THE PEOPLE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS GOVERNMENT ANYMORE. WHAT IF A LEGITIMATE AND SERIOUS TERRORIST ACTIVITY HAPPENS IN THE PHILIPPINES AND THEY ANNOUNCE IT, THE PEOPLE WILL THINK TWICE OR EVEN THRICE IN BELIEVING THEM. AND IT WOULD AFFECT INTELLIGENCE-GATHERING SINCE INTEL AGENTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING CREDIBLE AND A-1 INFORMATION REGARDING THE INCIDENT.

This is what I am saying. If the US government wants to solve the global terrorist problem and prevent it from spreading and infecting their own country, they should have a strong ally against terror here in the Philippines. Obviously, this is NOT the case here.

Spooks

Its not Halloween but we are continuously being fed with creepy reports. And these reports are on high gear. Just this morning, AFP Chief of Staff Hermogenes Esperon is at it again, telling the nation that another destabilization attempt is imminent. He said that they are monitoring some unusual movements on the ground. And those movements are coming from the camp of detained Senator Trillianes.

Tsk,tsk,tsk. Esperon is spooking us again. Indeed there are unusual movements on the ground, Sir. Every minute, little quakes happen and its not coming from Trillianes. Its coming from those mines. Or those volcanoes sir. Or whenever you go to the john sir.

Major Spooks

Whatever Esperon says right now, people will think that the reason why he's saying these things is to force GMA to renew his term of service. Hey, February is just around the corner. If he still wants to be relevant, then, he's sure to do something foolish before February 9; otherwise, he'll be allowed to fade away, just like Calderon. Oh, by the way, Calderon was recycled. Yes, he's now the chief jailer.

Before Esperon, there's National unsecurity adviser Gonzales who told the world how vulnerable the Philippines is against terrorism. That's why two senior military officials from the US state department visited him. Maybe he knows something we don't, says the Americans. Well boys, Gonzales is as clueless as you are Generals. You don't know it but Gonzales is just pulling your hairy legs, sirs.

Another spook, this time, In Justice Secretary Gonzales. This septuagenarian always imagine things in his mind. He's as paranoid as Hitler. He's imagining things and infecting us with his foolishness.


Paranoid as hell

I can understand these people. They're thieves. So, they're afraid to finally face the People's Justice.

All I know is this---these groups are trying to consolidate their forces. Esperon is out to do a palace coup. And he does'nt want the other group to beat him to it.

Prognostinations in 2008

We have seen numerous fortune tellers on television, saying this and that about our fate this 2008. This year, as everyone knows, is the start of a new cycle in Chinese astrology. These fortune tellers have already said things on the futures and careers of showbiz personalities, etc. What about politics and the economy? Let me humour you, my readers, about some political prognostinations this 2008.

Politics 1: Anti-Arroyo protests to continue

Protests against this government will continue unabated this year. However, I see that these groups will encounter numerous problems. First, logistics. Second, lack of support from political parties and third, internal disagreements. These snags will affect their moves in a major way.

Initiative has been lost due to the Christmas season. I see a controversy to happen within the first and second weeks of January which would again, put the anti-arroyo movement on perspective. A move to oust Arroyo could be possible within January or the first weeks of February. After this, possibly on June, July or worst, September.

Politics 2: Opposition will remain weak

The fragmentation of the opposition ranks contribute greatly to its weakness. This early, various opposition personalities have intimated their desire to run for president in 2010. I dare say that these personalities do not hold the people's interests in their hearts. For if they do, they will not wreck the opposition ranks with their personal desires. No one among them is fit to become president. They don't have the genuine interest of the people in their minds and hearts.

The lack of a solid campaign ideological platform will contribute to the defeat of the opposition in 2010.

Politics 3: 2008--campaign year for 2010

2008 will usher the start of the election campaign period. Several personalities will test the waters so to speak. Expect vigorous media campaigns from presidentiables coming from the opposition and administration.

Politics 4: Philippines--theater of war between US and China

This country will remain the foremost theater of war between the US and China. Though undeclared, this silent war will continue in the Philippines. We felt this cold war between the two economic giants during the ZTE controversy and the propaganda against Chinese products. Chinese and American interests will dominate Philippine policy-making this year.

Last year, we saw the emergence of a forward base by the US in Mindanao. China will definitely fortify its presence in the Spratlys as countermeasure. Increased Chinese presence in the country will be felt. It will be a matter of how pervasive the influence is from both groups.

Politics 5: US to choose candidate with strong links

The US is seeking a presidentiable who will not oppose US interests and at the same time, counter Chinese interests in the country. Obviously, this administration is pro-Chinese. Look at how it looks the other way when Chinese products flood the markets via Customs. Study the disparity of US products vis-a-vis Chinese products in the Philippines and you'll know what I meant.

2008 will see more and more engagements of Chinese and American envoys with both opposition and administration camps. Castilian interests will be tertiary.