Philippine Star reports that former President Joseph Estrada favors Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) strongest presidential bet Chiz Escudero as his running mate, dousing earlier speculations of an Erap-Loren or Erap-Binay teamup.
Base on the latest information, there are now three bets all claiming to be genuine opposition---Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party and former president Joseph Estrada of the UNO.
An Estrada-Escudero tandem might overturn any administration bet since Chiz registers a consistent ratings of base between 16-18%. Now the question is---will this 18% maximum support base of Chiz transfers to Erap? Let's analyze.
Chiz is strong in the ABC class with 30% approval ratings. The question is---will this 30% or at least half of it, transfer their support to Erap? There is a possibility that this 30% will transfer either to Villar or Roxas, most probably to Villar who has a 28% base support in the ABC class.
Villar and Erap shares the same 23% support in the E class while Villar registered a 25% support base compared with Erap's at 19%. This could be the sector where transference of 12% of Chiz Escudero's could benefit Erap. And the bulk of this class is concentrated at the NCR and the Visayas and Mindanao.
Very critical for Villar right now is the choice of a running mate. Villar should choose someone who (1) appeals to the ABC class to break or divide the constituency of Roxas and Escudero and (2) strong in the North. Villar's choice could make or break his campaign.
Now, would a Villar-de Castro teamup counteract an Erap-Escudero tandem? Possibly, since De Castro registers a strong 16% support in Luzon.
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