Magdalo is not with Manny Villar

I thought the Magdalo is for Manny Villar? Let me share with you this...


Dyaryo Magdalo Vol 30

PMP-UNO and Erap---withdrawing from the race in favor of Manny Villar?

What has been left in the fertile minds of people is the fact that in a one-on-one fight, Noynoy Aquino will beat Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. That was the result of the survey commissioned by Cong. Ronnie Zamora, an ardent supporter of Villar. And its an SWS survey, not one bought from Quiapo.

Now, what has been totally revelatory was this---in all configurations, whether its a four-or a five-man battle, Noynoy Aquino would still emerge a winner. 

What the Villar camp hopes to do is convince former president Joseph Estrada to withdraw from the race and just endorse Manny Villar as his president. One of Villar's closest associates is in fact actively taking part in the negotiations.

I doubt if the Villar camp would be successful, what with that "brief trip to destiny" made by Erap yesterday. Erap was invited by the palace to join the National Security Council (NSC) meeting and it was evident that Erap enjoyed that brief moment.

What is being talked about in coffee shops and even in barber shops, is this---Erap would endorse his kumpadre, Manny Villar and Binay will go to the Liberal party and endorse Noynoy.

Question---will all of Erap's grassroots supporters shift to Villar? No. I was privy to talks with numerous groups in PMP-UNO and the consensus is, should this happen, most of them will go with Noynoy Aquino.

Now, what would happen should the PMP-UNO group breaks up? What will happen to the senatorial candidates under the PMP-UNO slate?

This will befuddle the political pond and obfuscate the possibility of victory of certain candidates, particularly those bearing political brand names.

Why Do I think Manny Villar deserves the presidency

I had previous reservations about Manny Villar. I thought that he's running for the presidency out of sheer madness. Yep. Imagine, you own several properties. You're a certified billionaire already. You got the top plums in the legislature already. What more can you ask for?

Why waste 5 billion pesos just to get elected? Is the presidency worth that much?

For someone like Villar, who came from the ranks of the proletariat, being president is a childhood dream. Several decades ago, most kids in Metro Manila dream of either being a doctor, an astronaut, or...being president someday. Even someone as dirt poor as I was, I once dreamt of being an astronaut or at best, the President of the Republic of the Philippines.

Of course, I did not get to be an astronaut nor the president of this country but I am proud to say that, I got more than what I bargained for---I became a journalist and a teacher.

For Villar, being president is more than any other vocation. Its a mission. A mission to spread his message that anything is possible. That someone as poor as he was before can actually become a billionaire and probably even president someday.

That for me is a better proposition than Noynoy's, who just want to continue a legacy which we are not even aware of today.

And when Villar says that every Filipino can rise above poverty, he is talking from experience. Villar is an incurable optimist and we need someone like him to give us at least some hope that our future, and the future of our children will be as bright as his.

Villar also has the character and the strength of a Leader. Who, in his right mind, would actually get opposing groups together in one political party? Two decades ago, it was unimaginable for a member of the Leftist movement to be seen with a member of the Marcos family. Now, Satur Ocampo, a victim of oppression during the Marcos times, shares the same stage as that of Bongbong Marcos, the son of the dictator. It takes a great Leader to do just that.

And of course, Villar's platform of government deserves our support. It is a very clear platform of government that prescribes real solutions to real problems. Compared with Noynoy's platform, Manny Villar's program of government provides effective solutions.

Now, what is just disturbing is the fact that Manny Villar associated himself with known traditional politicians. He needs to resolve that. And he must assure the public that he will not be swayed by their sweet talk and their billion peso offers.

Barring any major hurdles, Manny Villar will be able to eclipse Noynoy in the polls but the question really is--will he be sworn in as president? Will civil society allow Villar to realize his childhood dream to become president of this country?

Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part II

Imagine a scenario where power goes out in major cities and some municipalities in metropolitan areas during the counting period. Imagine a scenario where armed groups destroy counting machines in some far-flung areas of the archipelago. Impossible? In Philippine politics nothing is impossible.

What is a political certainty is this---if administration candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro wins in the cleanest of all elections, he will definitely not assume power. He will not be able to swore himself in as president because no one will believe it and definitely, most of his political opponents will surely cry foul. When that happens, expect either two results: (1) Mrs. Arroyo calls for martial rule or (2) groups oust Mrs. Arroyo in a successful revolt and calls for a repeat of the presidential elections.

An automated elections, I remember what Senator Chiz Escudero said some months ago, is not an assurance that the entire democratic exercise will be clean and honest. The elections will only be as safe, as honest and as clean as what we expect it to be, if those behind those counting machines, are honest and are not susceptible to corruption. Machines will just count. Men are the ones inputting data into the machine.

Everyone knows that there are only two (2) ways to compromize an IT-based integrative system: hacking the software and physical attacks. The Comelec just hired an IT firm who will ensure the integrity of the source codes. That's fine. The question is---when will they install those source codes? Obviously, they will do it weeks prior to the elections. It is that crucial time when cheaters will definitely act. Thru collusion with election officers, these cheaters can replace these source codes with their own. If election cheaters procure or secure for themselves the technical specs of these source codes, they can very well, replace them even a day or two prior to the counting.

Now, should that be entirely impossible to do, the next riskier thing to do is physically harm the system through sabotage. This entails a bigger expense since it would need the cooperation of security agencies and election officials.

Many fear that cheaters will definitely do just that in selected far-flung areas where security is thin. To be able to influence the elections in a major way, these cheaters have to compromise not just a dozen, but at least 15% of election areas and if you look at the data of the PNP, this reflects at least 45% of their list of election hot-spots.

Definitely, this elections will surely go the way of a violent one, because election cheaters will definitely employ tactics to ensure that their paid clients win. 

Now, in the event that the elections loses credibility, then, the one who will definitely win or clinch the presidency, will be the one ready to deploy his army of supporters and launch a civil disobedience campaign. That one would most certainly be the candidate who:

1. Successfully convinced the public that he is the best man to beat but
2. lost due to massive administration-initiated cheating

Why do I think that this is sure to happen?

Because no candidate will get a major slice of the electorate votes. No one. Come May 2010, everything stabilizes and every candidate is statistically given an equal chance of winning. Come May 10, no ratings or even star power would matter in the polling precincts. What would matter would be the preparations of these candidates prior to the voting and counting phases.

In a seven-cornered fight such as this one (Aquino-Villar-Estrada-Teodoro-Villanueva-Gordon-Delos Reyes), just one of these candidates cry "foul" or "I was cheated!" would spark public outrage. This will surely lead to a revolution of some sorts.

This is a very serious security matter. Every candidate right now is being supported by at least one PMA class and this could turn into a franatical war between and among military classes and a serious shouting match among various elite groups who already threw their support behind differing political groups.

Wherever you look at it, this elections would surely be explosive.

For example, everyone will surely express disbelief if Teodoro wins EVEN IN THE CLEANEST OF ALL ELECTIONS. Everyone thinks that Teodoro's liability is his association with Gloria and as early as now, the impression is, he will surely not win.

Now, what if the stakes just turn suddenly in favor of Teodoro and he wins, what now? Surely, the Aquino, the Villar and even the Villanueva camps will cry "fraud" and that would start a revolution against Arroyo. This will set the process of revolution which will only stop when Noynoy Aquino assumes power.

Whatever happens, Noynoy Aquino will definitely be the next Philippine president--whether there is a clean or a tainted electoral exercise. Why? Because he has the full crew of civil society members under his political party.

What happens to Erap? If Noynoy assumes the presidency, Estrada will recognize it. How about Villar? Will Villar contest Noynoy's leadership in that critical stage? No.

Surely, Villar's numbers will be as close as Noynoy's. A struggle between the two parties will happen but this will eventually result to a compromise.

Now, someone will definitely contest my analysis and say that, sure, these groups will oppose a Teodoro win and cry foul, but their efforts will be frustrated. Look at what happened in 1992? Miriam defensor-Santiago opposed FVR's win but FVR still got the presidency.

1992 is totally different because FVR managed to calm the frayed nerves of other political parties. Miriam is not exactly your "good version" of a rabble rouser. Miriam is different from Noynoy. If Noynoy says there was cheating (even if there is but it just will influence a small fraction of the presidential results), the people will definitely believe him and will support him.

Net---Gilbert Teodoro will surely lose in this elections even if he wins by a cleanest of all exercises because of the perception that his victory will be perceived as tainted and manipulated by the administration. Even if Teodoro manages to squeak in a margin of one million votes over, say Noynoy or Villar, there will still be public outrage due to accusations of fraud.

The only expected outcome of the May 20, 2010 elections is a clean toss-up between two major political parties---Noynoy Aquino's Liberal and Manny Villar's Nacionalista. If Noynoy wins in the most slim of margins, that is still okey since this will just be contested in the electoral tribunals. If Estrada wins, and his margin is not that big over say Noynoy's or Villar's, that will set the motion for FVR supporters to move for destabilization. The public does not expect Gordon or JC delos Reyes to win or even Eddie Villanueva. If they, however, squeak in a win, this will shock the country but will not be enough to mobilize masses of people for a revolt.

Yet, again, as I said, if Teodoro wins, expect a different kind of EDSA, probably the bloodiest of all. It would take a miracle to calm everything down. 

Manny Villar personifies Gloria Arroyo

For the nth time, Senator Manny Villar failed to again honor his previous commitment to the people--that after filing his Certificate of Candidacy, he will start joining presidential debates. Last night, ANC held a presidentiable forum and Villar, not even his shadow, was there.

For somebody whom reports say is very serious in his campaign for the presidency, Villar's action is not just condemnable---it shows Villar's lack of responsibility. Binabastos ni Villar ang taumbayan. Villar is mocking us. Villar just disrespected the Filipino People.

Villar's actions also reinforce the belief that he will just be using his billions just to get elected.

We cannot elect someone who does not respect us. Villar just showed that he is no different from Arroyo.

And it's days after he filed his CoC, yet, we don't even know what Villar is fighting for. We don't know his platform. Aside from motherhood statements that he is for the People and he wants to fight the scourge of poverty, what else Mr. Villar?

We don't know where Villar positions himself when it comes to the RH bill.

We don't know what Villar would do with the secessionist and insurgency problems.

We simply are in the dark as to what Villar will do with private armies.

And we simply don't know how Villar will actually help the poor, whom he claims to belong to.

Is Villar afraid to cross swords with the witty Noynoy Aquino? Is he afraid that he will lose his "mystique" when other contenders expose his lack of an indepth knowledge about the ills of this Nation?

It is very dangerous to elect such a man into office, who thinks that everything is for sale, and who thinks that he is not accountable to explain himself before the very people he wants to serve.

NPC as political prostitute

We're seeing the diminution of traditional political party setups and the slow disintegration of original trapo political parties. As confirmed by this site a few days ago, Lakas is teaming up with NPC, not to push for a Teodoro-Legarda tandem, which, as some sources say, is in the realm of Akira Kurusawa (Dreams); but to enhance their respective ranks. Lakas has been plagued by desertions, same case with NPC. It is but natural for both parties to merge for self-preservation.

Some say, this is the major reason why Escudero and Legarda decided to bolt their parties. Both candidates do not want their names associated with an NPC-Lakas merger. Natural for Escudero to form his own movement since he is being supported by progressives and reformist groups. While Legarda has to butterfly to other parties not entirely critical against the administration, but positioning themselves also as "oppositionist" by name or association.

On the part of Legarda, natural for her to gravitate towards Villar because the Nacionalista is not under the administration list of possible targets for demolition. Under a Villar-Legarda tandem, Loren will remain an NPC member, indicating that this is purely for 2010 reasons.

With Legarda under the Villar wing, she will eventually enjoy the strength of Villar's machinery and preserve her strong ties both with NPC and Lakas. She will definitely be endorsed by NPC as their vice presidential candidate and of course, by the Nacionalista.

The merger between NPC and Lakas will benefit Loren Legarda. There is that possibility that the NPC will only support Teodoro as president in deference to Lakas , and Legarda as vice. The Villar-Legarda tandem does not necessarily mean that the entire NPC will support Villar. What NPC will do is open itself up for the possibility of supporting Teodoro only as president and not supporting a vice presidential candidate. If this happens, this benefits Loren.

By the way, why Villar for Legarda in the first place?

Unknown to many, Villar already entered in an agreement with Mrs. Arroyo. Villar will not prosecute Mrs. Arroyo for high crimes against the people should he win the elections. Villar is also open to the possibility of shifting to a parliamentary setup post-2010. What we are now seeing is an alliance of pro-Arroyo groups austensibly to prevent a Noynoy Aquino win or an Erap win.

Eventually, these trapos (Noynoy's Liberal and Erap's UNO are traditional oppositionists on the left-of-right side of the political spectrum same as the Nacionalista and NPC positioned on the middle-of-right) will negate themselves and pave the way for a victory of a third force.

Dalawa na lang ang manliligaw ni Loren Legarda

Tulad ng isang "mahinhing" Filipina, isa-isa nang sinasabihan ni Senadora Loren Legarda ang kanyang mga masusugid na manliligaw ng kanyang mapait na "sorry". Ligawin si Loren, hindi lang dahil sa kanyang angking kagandahan, kundi na rin sa kanyang angking Mass appeal. Kahapon, sinabi ni Loren na ayaw niyang makatambal si Lakas-KAMPI presidential candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro. "Mananatili ako sa oposisyon," ayon kay Legarda na patuloy na nakikipag-usap sa iba pa niyang mga manliligaw tulad ni NPC presidential bet Chiz Escudero at Nacionalista Party Manny Villar. Dalawa na lamang ang natitirang manliligaw ni Loren. Sino kaya sa kanila ang pipiliin ng magandang senadora?

Parehong may asawa ang dalawa, kaya naman mananatiling number two sa puso nila si Loren. Sa halalan, obvious namang pangalawang "asawa" lang siya ng dalawa. Malakas ang ugong na siya na ang partner ni Villar. Pero, ilan naman ang pinipilit si Chiz na maging number two siya.

Sino kaya ang pipiliin ni LOren? Abangan sa araw na ito.

The Spectre of a Proxy President looms

The opposition is in disarray. They are fighting amongst themselves. The specter of a proxy president looms in the horizon.

What is preventing NPC Senator Chiz Escudero from formally declaring his bid for the presidency? Sources say, it's former president Joseph Estrada who reportedly asked his good friend, Danding Cojuangco a big favor. Cojuangco already publicized his response---he will support whoever his party, the NPC, wants as their presidential bet. And Chiz is it.

Chiz is a formidable opponent because he has the backing of the Tsinoy community as well as Danding's group.

Yet, there are talks that Loren Legarda wants to cross parties and partner up with Erap. Not a good move at this point. Legarda should stay with the NPC since she has a better chance of winning this time, with Kabayan Noli de Castro out of the picture. De Castro, as some friends say, is going back to broadcasting.

Meanwhile, the Noynoy-Mar camp is, as some alleged, self-destructing. Their relief operations went haywire. Some groups are reportedly frustrated over the seemingly "secretive" way the Liberal Party is managing Noynoy's campaign. Talks about Noynoy meeting Erap and Danding are beginning to affect the morale of volunteers within Noynoy's camp, especially those belonging to the reform groups.

Villar, as some alleged, is slowly running out of funds.

And organizers within all their parties are engaged in mini turf wars, not good for the reform movement.

Over at the administration camp, things are slowly being organized behind Gibo. Gibo's presence in all those affected flood prone areas will find its mark in the surveys.

The key to this is the NORTH. Whoever makes himself big or bigger in the rehab efforts in the North will clinch the presidency. And it seems that, for the meantime, the administration is shoring up some points.

Estrada-Escudero teamup spells victory?

Philippine Star reports that former President Joseph Estrada favors Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) strongest presidential bet Chiz Escudero as his running mate, dousing earlier speculations of an Erap-Loren or Erap-Binay teamup.

Base on the latest information, there are now three bets all claiming to be genuine opposition---Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party and former president Joseph Estrada of the UNO.

An Estrada-Escudero tandem might overturn any administration bet since Chiz registers a consistent ratings of base between 16-18%. Now the question is---will this 18% maximum support base of Chiz transfers to Erap? Let's analyze.

Chiz is strong in the ABC class with 30% approval ratings. The question is---will this 30% or at least half of it, transfer their support to Erap? There is a possibility that this 30% will transfer either to Villar or Roxas, most probably to Villar who has a 28% base support in the ABC class.

Villar and Erap shares the same 23% support in the E class while Villar registered a 25% support base compared with Erap's at 19%. This could be the sector where transference of 12% of Chiz Escudero's could benefit Erap. And the bulk of this class is concentrated at the NCR and the Visayas and Mindanao.

Very critical for Villar right now is the choice of a running mate. Villar should choose someone who (1) appeals to the ABC class to break or divide the constituency of Roxas and Escudero and (2) strong in the North. Villar's choice could make or break his campaign.

Now, would a Villar-de Castro teamup counteract an Erap-Escudero tandem? Possibly, since De Castro registers a strong 16% support in Luzon.

Manny Villar--binastos ang masa

Wala ni anino ni Manny Villar sa ginaganap ngayong presidential forum sa Plaza Miranda. Bakit? Hindi ba niya napapagtanto na ang kanyang ginagawa ay direktahang pambabastos sa taumbayan? Naging mahalaga ang forum na ito sapagkat lumagda sa isang kasunduan o covenant ang bawat isang presidentiable na nagsasabing isusulong nila ang isang malinis at mahinusay na halalan. Isa rin itong malakas na pahayag laban sa isinusulong na pagbabago sa saligang batas ng kasalukuyang pamahalaan.

Sa kawalang partisipasyon ni Villar, malinaw na indikasyon ito na hindi kaisa ng masa si Villar sa pagsusulong ng isang malinis na halalan. Ibig bagang sabihin ni Villar, mas naniniwala siya sa paggamit ng bilyon-bilyong piso upang makuha ang panguluhan? Kawalang galang ito sa sambayanang Pilipino.

Sa pagiging absent ni Villar, ibig bagang sabihin nito ay naniniwala siya sa cha-cha at handa siyang hindi tumakbo sa halalan? Kung gayon, dapat lantaran nang sabihin ni Villar ang pakay niya bakit niya gustong tumakbo? Pagtakas ba ito sa mga katiwaliang kanya umanong ginawa at patuloy na ginagawa bilang senador?