After the Cory afterglow, what's next for Noynoy?

So, Erap Estrada said he'll not give way to Noynoy. And if you think about it, why would he? There's no basis for him to do so. Noynoy's ratings are still not in and there is no other basis for people to believe in the "groundswell" that Noynoy and his handlers say.

Erap is not born yesterday. This groundswell is still not being felt by everybody except probably those in the Liberal Party ranks and their affiliate groups. What Erap is saying is the Noypi people should work doubly hard in organizing their ranks instead of forcing people to go with them thru the PR route. If Noynoy say, gets 20 or so percent of the people's vote, then, probably, major political parties would sit and take notice. Without this, Noynoy Aquino would have to contend with a mythical groundswell.

The reason why Noynoy's people are giving almost everything to put him always in the public mind is they want to influence Pulse Asia and SWS who are now in the process of gathering data for this month's survey results. They are bound to release these results by the end of this month. These surveys are very critical, since this would make or break the political ambitions of some people. These surveys will also determine the direction of financial campaign support. If big financiers see that their respective candidates have no chance to clinch a win, they will eventually shift their support.

And I fear that what people behind Noynoy is doing will, in the long run, impact on his candidacy. They are stretching themselves too much. Belinda Cunanan's question is very relevant---what would happen if the Cory afterglow fades?

Eventually, this Noynoy thing would dissipate and they will run out of things to say and people will stop discussing things about Noynoy. Remember--it is still 10 months to go before the May 2010 elections. And issues have shelf lives.

When all other candidates declare their candidacies, the public sphere will eventually shift discussions, from Noynoy to other issues. That would be a test of how strong public support is behing Noynoy.

Should Erap and other candidates do give way, chances are they will by next year. It's too early for anyone to give up their respective candidacies before November 30. Its more of Erap's liking that he gives way when he sees that his constituency has shifted to Noynoy. Based on what we know about Erap's organization, this is unlikely.

Noypi should stop convincing Erap because he will just simplify this as a fight between the masa (he thinks he represents them) and the elite (he thinks that Noynoy represents them.). If you think about it, Erap does not represent the masses. They both belong to the elite, albeit, one claims to be reformist while one claims to be nothing but showbiz.