After the Cory afterglow, what's next for Noynoy?

So, Erap Estrada said he'll not give way to Noynoy. And if you think about it, why would he? There's no basis for him to do so. Noynoy's ratings are still not in and there is no other basis for people to believe in the "groundswell" that Noynoy and his handlers say.

Erap is not born yesterday. This groundswell is still not being felt by everybody except probably those in the Liberal Party ranks and their affiliate groups. What Erap is saying is the Noypi people should work doubly hard in organizing their ranks instead of forcing people to go with them thru the PR route. If Noynoy say, gets 20 or so percent of the people's vote, then, probably, major political parties would sit and take notice. Without this, Noynoy Aquino would have to contend with a mythical groundswell.

The reason why Noynoy's people are giving almost everything to put him always in the public mind is they want to influence Pulse Asia and SWS who are now in the process of gathering data for this month's survey results. They are bound to release these results by the end of this month. These surveys are very critical, since this would make or break the political ambitions of some people. These surveys will also determine the direction of financial campaign support. If big financiers see that their respective candidates have no chance to clinch a win, they will eventually shift their support.

And I fear that what people behind Noynoy is doing will, in the long run, impact on his candidacy. They are stretching themselves too much. Belinda Cunanan's question is very relevant---what would happen if the Cory afterglow fades?

Eventually, this Noynoy thing would dissipate and they will run out of things to say and people will stop discussing things about Noynoy. Remember--it is still 10 months to go before the May 2010 elections. And issues have shelf lives.

When all other candidates declare their candidacies, the public sphere will eventually shift discussions, from Noynoy to other issues. That would be a test of how strong public support is behing Noynoy.

Should Erap and other candidates do give way, chances are they will by next year. It's too early for anyone to give up their respective candidacies before November 30. Its more of Erap's liking that he gives way when he sees that his constituency has shifted to Noynoy. Based on what we know about Erap's organization, this is unlikely.

Noypi should stop convincing Erap because he will just simplify this as a fight between the masa (he thinks he represents them) and the elite (he thinks that Noynoy represents them.). If you think about it, Erap does not represent the masses. They both belong to the elite, albeit, one claims to be reformist while one claims to be nothing but showbiz.

The People Need Guidance

Tomorrow, Illegitimate president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will again address the House of Representatives. As tradition dictates, she'll present a report and an agenda. This report is supposedly a true and honest account of what government has done to achieve the previous year's SONA. And Gloria is supposed to give an agenda to guide legislators on the priority bills this year.

Oppositionists say Gloria will just lie and picture what Makati mayor Jejomar Binay said: "..a situation where people are not hungry, oil is cheap...and government officials are honest". United Opposition (UNO) spokesman Adel Tamano meanwhile enjoined the people to just listen to the "true" State of the Nation (SONA) along Congressional Avenue and in Makati to have a grasp of the true realities of Philippine life.

True, Gloria would probably lie to us and say that she and her mafia gang are doing something to arrest what the Inquirer said, is the continuing slide of major institutions of governance to corruption and decay. Gloria would picture the "success" of her administration in solving some of the basic problems we face today. These lies would make us catatonic again, making us complacent and inutile. What Gloria is doing is weaving a tapestry of intricate lies and half-truths that as a whole, picture a stable nation.

The real question here is what will we do about it? If we are being lied about by this usurper, are we supposed to do something about it? Are we just to go to Congressional avenue and listen to alternate viewpoints?

These opposition groups should provide an answer. They should enjoin the people to act accordingly. For, in not doing so, they are being negligent of their very job of being fiscalizers and true change agents. It is not enough to comment or make aspersions about Gloria. This is the time for them, the opposition, to provide some answers so that truly, the People will see, feel and hear that they do, indeed, represent the interests of the masses.

To the Opposition--don't provide us with empty talk. The people already know we're all in deep shit. Provide us direction and guide us on what to do with a monumental problem like Gloria.

Lead the Filipino masses towards what the FSGO (Former Secretaries of Government Offices) is a "re-imagination" of the Filipino Vision. This is the time for everyone to join in and act as one against Gloria and her mafia gang. 

If these activities are just to debilitate Gloria and make her a spent force for 2010, forget about it. The People need change NOW, not in 2010.