Noynoy Aquino mass support is no fluke

The groundswell for Senator Noynoy Aquino is legit. And trust Social Weather Stations (SWS) for confirming it.

Of course, some people would still doubt it. For those in the know, SWS is simply not as benevolent as many would expect it is.

However, I was privy to a very confidential survey report conducted by a business group. The credibility of this group is rock solid. They commissioned the survey to really determine if there really is a Noynoy constituency.

Based on the confidential survey results, if we are to hold the elections now, Senator Noynoy Aquino would win 49% of the electorate. That is half a mile higher than those who will vote for Senator Manny Villar (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada (14%) or even Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero (12%).

Is this a confirmation of the winnability of Noynoy? Not quite.

Noynoy has to work harder for this "trust rating" to convert itself into votes by May 2010. He needs more logistics. He needs a battalion of volunteers. He needs to send the right messages at the right time and he needs no cosmetic changes when doing it. He just needs to be himself.

What is crucial are the surveys to be conducted by the third week of September (by SWS) and by the third week of October (by Pulse Asia). For political analysts, that would be the key determining factor in the elections.

Believe me, Noynoy's ratings would still improve on the coming weeks, as his campaign shifts to a higher gear. I just hope that he sustains his ratings within the 49% to 50% range, and not suffer a "ratings downgrade" as the election nears. That is most dangerous.

The question that everybody is asking---has he already peaked? A high ratings at the first time is more dangerous than, say, a ratings that slowly reflects an upward trend. If this is the trough rather than the crest, then, that's good. If it's the other way around, then, that could be most worrisome.

Anyway, even if Senator Noynoy's ratings are cut in half, that would still be a formidable one.