Noynoy Aquino's Psychiatric Test: A Political Amateur's attempt at dirty tactics

One of the basic rules in Public Relations, especially when you want to expose something is simply this--do you have proof?

I say this because of this blogger who published an alleged psychiatric record of Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III. I am not publishing the blog here nor of its contents simply because I don't want to dignify it. Besides, a blog or a blogger who suddenly appeared out of nowhere and claim that he has under his possession, a very "explosive" material without even saying who he is, is at best, doubtful and dangerous.

Doubtful in the sense that I know most political bloggers (or those credible ones who write political blogs), met them, exchanged views with them and even if some of them write anonymously (like me, yet I have the decency of writing here my true identity, meaning, an identity is simply not a name but attributes), they do have the decency of giving their readers some of their true attributes. In this case, this person or person(s) who masterminded this caper is or are either loonies themselves or simply too amateurish for their own comfort.

Dangerous because this so-called "political amateur" blogging at Wordpress has just committed a very grievous offense--he just committed libel. His post is simply libelous because its an obvious FAKE. Who, in his right mind, would believe that the Ateneo has a clinical psychiatry unit?

If somebody, a blogger or a Facebook user shares this blog to somebody or anybody, they just committed libel. Yep, these people can be charged with accessory to the crime of libel. If the people behind this blog thinks that they can turn this into a viral campaign, they better think twice because this will not gain traction. No, it definitely will not. Why? Because whoever spreads the contents of this blog to his Facebook or Twitter friends or simply copy the link and paste it in his own blog, he just committed libel.

Second, the alleged signatory of the report, Fr. Tito Caluag, has just denied the report. BY tomorrow, the Ateneo Department of Psychiatry will also issue a denial.

Now, this is the problem. This failed attempt at besmirching the good name of Noynoy Aquino will simply backfire.

First, Filipinos are intelligent enough to see this thru. Second, obvious that it came from Noynoy's main or chief political rival which happens to be Manny Villar. Remember that days ago, Villar stooge and ass-licker Senator Alan Peter Cayetano just accused their political opponents of being TOPAK. TOPAK is a Tagalog term which means "loony" or "crazy". After that, this came out.

I don't know about you, but who looks more TOPAK between these two guys: Peter Cayetano who, during our college days, was derided or called as " the anak-araw autistic" or Noynoy?

And yes, I agree that whoever did this not only committed a crime--he or she or this group of people just set back the gains of legitimate ploggers (political bloggers) a hundred years.

Blogging should not be used as a medium to spread or cast aspersions against any person. Blogging is a sacred thing, especially to us, bloggers. If you want to accuse somebody of something, you need proof. And evidence should be strong AND it should be the TRUTH.

This person behind politicalamateur.wordpress.com should not be toooo comfortable. Why? He or she or this group of people cannot really hide. For one, the internet is the worst place to spread rumours or fake information. You can be traced. The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) can actually get the IP address of the blogsite, note when was the material published and presto! they can actually trace where was the writer at the time he wrote or uploaded the libelous material.

Now, if these people think that they harmed or even injured Noynoy Aquino by spreading or uploading this fake document, you guessed it---they failed. Fact is, their attempts at casting aspersions against Noynoy will backfire and in fact, will even benefit Noynoy Aquino.

Who will then be affected by this? Obviously, the Nacionalistas and Senator Manny Villar will be the ones affected. Filipinos hate sore losers.

One tip for the Liberals: you can definitely get the real identity of this so-called political amateur blogger by asking wordpress.com to divulge the name of the person whose email address was used. Wordpress.com, through a letter from Noynoy's attorney, will gladly divulge that information.

And when you get that information, kindly share it with us, real bloggers and with the authorities. Let this faker suffer the penalty of imprisonment and let Noynoy file charges and ask for 10-million pesos as damages.

Himig Natin and What Filipinos now struggle against

I made this video for the Pinoyobserver.com channel. Let me just share this with you. This is what I meant when I urge Senator Noynoy Aquino's advertising guys to change their strategy of presenting Noynoy to the public.



Himig Nating Mga Pilipino

The Prize, that is the Presidency

Senator Juan Ponce-Enrile urged his colleague Senator Manny Villar to moderate his campaign spending. For his more than sixty years in public service, this is the first time he witnessed a candidate spending so much for just one campaign. And Enrile, a veteran of political wars, has seen them all. 

Based on latest estimates, Villar has reportedly spent a quarter of a billion pesos already--three or four times higher than his nearest competitor. What is urging this candidate to spend in wanton fashion?

Villar is literally throwing money in the air by spending close to 300 million pesos for his TV and radio ads alone. He is like what Filipinos described as "galit sa pera." And what motivates a man who claimed to have been born poor, to waste or spend so much for a prize, that is, the Presidency?

Imagine, 300 million pesos just for a few minutes to be heard on air, when this same amount would have been wisely spent feeding the poor. Villar claims to have that formula to save the poor from themselves, but, at this early in the game, refuses to even give those monies to non-government organizations or people's organizations or charities to at least improve the lives of 14 million poor families.

I think more than political, Villar's behavior is  rooted on psycho-social reasons. Villar wants everybody to know that he has "arrived". This is a common trait of those who are newly accepted in the elite stratosphere---they want the world to know that they have the money and is willing to spend it, even at the point of frivolity.

Even if he loses this election, Villar would have earned gazillions in terms of name recall and branding. This will benefit and cement his ascendancy in the real estate business. And this will bring him more money and gain more influence.

The question really is---is Villar ready to fight for the presidency under challenging times? I mean, what if his enemies cheat him, will Villar exert leadership and lead his supporters for the ultimate fight for that charmed seat beside the Pasig?

Aquino asks Villar--"Where were you when we were fighting the abuses of Arroyo?"

“When you see that there is oppression and you do nothing, you are in effect also supporting that oppressive system.”

This is the quiant response of Liberal party bet Noynoy Aquino on the swipe made by Nacionalista party presidential candidate Senator Manny Villar on his ability to lead the nation in reforms.


Aquino took a jibe at Villar for questioning his capability to lead the nation in genuine reforms. In last Saturday’s presidential debates, Villar took the bull by the horns and lambasted Aquino for two things: (1) Aquino’s alleged lack of managerial competence and (2) the Liberal party’s inability to lead the Nation towards change.

Aquino hits Villar in the jugular by pointedly asking Villar why was he, as Senate president, absent in all those hearings and public fights against the abuses committed by the Arroyo administration.


Manny Villar---an Arroyo surrogate candidate?


Aquino says that even Villar’s shadow was nowhere to be found during those times when all the People were questioning the illegal deals made by the Arroyo administration, particularly that which happened in the NBN-ZTE deal.


For Aquino, this just proves one thing–Villar is also in collusion with the Arroyo administration.

When push came to shove, where were you? What have you done? He says he is not a person who easily picks a fight, but when you see the abuses in the system, does it not make you want to stand up and say enough is enough?” Aquino said in an interview.

Aquino’s diatribe against Villar confirms earlier suspicions that Villar is actually the dummy candidate of Mrs. Arroyo.

Noynoy Aquino is new Philippine President (if Noynoy continues what he's doing)

Let me be the first one to declare this, and I sincerely believe it---Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III will become the 15th Philippine president on June 2010. Is this based on some mumbo jumbo, gut feel or pure research? This is based on research.

First, I think that Noynoy's team is on the right track. I saw the TV ad made by Troman Productions and compared with other infomercials by other candidates, that sends the right message. Messaging by the way, is most critical for all candidates this coming elections. Why?

Based on COMELEC voter stats and those of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), 48% of Filipino voters belong to the 21-34 year old bracket. This sector behaves as one block. If you reach this voting sector with the right messaging and thru the right channels, you'll be able to win the elections.

Majority of the votes will come from regions 1, 2,3, 4-a, 4-b, 6, 8, and 11, regions which are fully cognizant of the Cory legacy. GMA or Lakas-Kampi influence is very weak in these areas and you should exploit that.

What is the right messaging for Noynoy?

First, his vision. What direction does he want the country to take? Noynoy must be very clear on this.

What direction would he take us to secure ample food stocks? How would he improve the economic situation so that majority of Filipinos are not left in the lurch while a few enjoy the blessings of capitalism?

What specific things will he do to improve the political situation? Will he change the charter like what PALAKA candidate Gilbert Gibo Teodoro wants? Or will he form a unitary, coalition government and people himself with members of civil society and the academe to craft a 2020 vision for this country?

Second, he should hammer out the message that he has the strong political will to make those changes. Noynoy should demonstrate this graphically so that most voters would believe that he is capable. Remember that people remember images more than text (that's why it's very effective for Noynoy to always, always been seen in TV and internet).

Third, he should coalesce with other people's organizations, civil society groups and labor unions and do it OUTSIDE the Liberal Party. Noypi is a great movement. He should strengthen it and tell people that he's running under this movement, not the Liberal, para maalis yung stigma ng pagka-trapo.

Fourth, he should condemn traditional politics. Noynoy should be above other candidates in terms of having the cleanest record. He should expose himself more online, by encouraging people to chat with him, etc. He should also conduct more town hall meetings, instead of the usual barn storming or rally sessions.

Lastly, please ask your uncle, Butch Aquino and the rest of the Kamaganak Incorporated and even businessman Ramon del Rosario not to speak for and on your behalf. Nakasisira sila ng diskarte sa totoo lang. Parang hayok na hayok silang makaupo ka na because parang they're saying na "happy days are here again!".

And promise us Noynoy that if you win, you will not appoint these people in sensitive posts in government. Dapat iba naman. They should not also do business during your presidency. In fact, do the impossible (for other people, especially Mrs. Aquino)---exile your immediate family members to other countries while you govern.

Likewise, those who help you now in your campaign, dapat wala kang i-appoint sa mga yan sa gobyerno mo.

Otherwise, I and the rest of the New Patriots will struggle for your removal from office. Mark this. Baka isang coup ka lang.

49% of Pinoys favor Noynoy Aquino for President, a cause of concern?

If elections are held today, 49% of Filipinos would definitely elect Senator Noynoy Aquino as president. For Noynoy's supporters, that's proof positive that they have a winnable candidate. But, that is not really the thing that they need to find out. That's a wrong question. Noynoy is a winnable candidate.

But, is a 49% ratings a cause of joy? For me, this is most worrisome, even a major cause of concern especially since actual elections are still eight more months to go.

A survey commissioned by a very prominent business group was held just recently and based on those results, almost half of the Filipino electorate favors Noynoy Aquino over other candidates.

In fact, Noynoy’s ratings are more than half a tad higher than what Senator Manny Villar got (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada’s ratings (14%) and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero’s (12%). All other candidates got lower ratings.

For Noynoy’s supporters, this high ratings affirm earlier gut feelings that there is still a “Cory Magic”. That people are still highly convinced that Noynoy deserves to be elected president than all the rest of the candidates.

However, there’s a downside to this.

Remember that there is still eight more months to go before D-Day. A 49% ratings is not insurmountable. In fact, it is more dangerous for Noynoy to get a very high ratings like this, at the first try. Why?

There are many imponderables in politics and many things could happen that could affect Noynoy’s ratings.

What this high ratings just mean is there really is a “groundswell” of support behind a Noynoy candidacy. And half of the electorate constitutes that groundswell.

That there is a Noynoy constituency is a given. The question really is—is this very high ratings sustainable?

Electoral history shows a downside. When a candidate gets a very high ratings in the first try, he needs to work doubly hard than other candidates to sustain this trust rating. He needs more logistics support, more personnel out in the field to organize those amorphous supportive masses, and more propaganda than his nearest rival.

The bottomline is more work needs to be done. Noypi needs all the support it can get from civil society groups, grassroots organizations, people's organizations, traditional party machineries and public personalities. To sustain a 49% rating, you need to call in all your troops and try to mobilize them and pray that they don't get tired while waiting for D-day. Get what I mean?

For me, better if Noynoy got a “decent ratings” of about 20 or even a 30% rather than a 49% because a 49% is very hard to sustain over a course of ten more months.

A 49% probably reflects a peak, not a trough. Better if Noynoy’s ratings slowly increase over time, instead of it decrease from a high 49% ratings. A decrease could be used as a propaganda tool against Noynoy Aquino. His rivals would just say that this 49% ratings reflect an emotional knee-jerk reaction from the highly publicized Cory funeral spectacle.

This is the same thing that happened to Mar Roxas, Chiz Escudero or even Noli de Castro, that is most worrisome.

There is a solution to this though.

If the Opposition unites, and Erap agrees to lend his support behind Noynoy and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) does the same, then, that’s it for other candidates. Those support groups would greatly help sustain a majority vote for Noynoy and carry him throughout the electoral fight.

This will send a very strong message from the people that Noynoy’s support is no fluke and represents a real cry of the people for massive change.

Noynoy Aquino mass support is no fluke

The groundswell for Senator Noynoy Aquino is legit. And trust Social Weather Stations (SWS) for confirming it.

Of course, some people would still doubt it. For those in the know, SWS is simply not as benevolent as many would expect it is.

However, I was privy to a very confidential survey report conducted by a business group. The credibility of this group is rock solid. They commissioned the survey to really determine if there really is a Noynoy constituency.

Based on the confidential survey results, if we are to hold the elections now, Senator Noynoy Aquino would win 49% of the electorate. That is half a mile higher than those who will vote for Senator Manny Villar (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada (14%) or even Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero (12%).

Is this a confirmation of the winnability of Noynoy? Not quite.

Noynoy has to work harder for this "trust rating" to convert itself into votes by May 2010. He needs more logistics. He needs a battalion of volunteers. He needs to send the right messages at the right time and he needs no cosmetic changes when doing it. He just needs to be himself.

What is crucial are the surveys to be conducted by the third week of September (by SWS) and by the third week of October (by Pulse Asia). For political analysts, that would be the key determining factor in the elections.

Believe me, Noynoy's ratings would still improve on the coming weeks, as his campaign shifts to a higher gear. I just hope that he sustains his ratings within the 49% to 50% range, and not suffer a "ratings downgrade" as the election nears. That is most dangerous.

The question that everybody is asking---has he already peaked? A high ratings at the first time is more dangerous than, say, a ratings that slowly reflects an upward trend. If this is the trough rather than the crest, then, that's good. If it's the other way around, then, that could be most worrisome.

Anyway, even if Senator Noynoy's ratings are cut in half, that would still be a formidable one.

The blabberings of GMA's apologists

Gary Olivar, the purported "expert in economic affairs" of Mrs. Gloria Arroyo's press team, just gave Senator Noynoy Aquino an "unsolicited advice". He said that Noynoy should be a "man" and that "he should stand by his own two feet" and not bask in the legacy (or glory?) of his parents.

Olivar also lambasted people, especially Noynoy, for saying that this is a fight between "good" and "evil". Not quite, says Olivar. For neither is Gloria good nor evil. She just does her work.

Quite uncalled for, I dare say. For Gary is not the best person to say all those things, what after abandoning the struggle for the masses and deciding to work for someone who is neither a man nor a woman, but the demon personified.

Come to think of it, it's really for economic reasons that Olivar tried that cheap shot. Hey, if his boss loses the game, Olivar could find himself jobless and shirtless and maybe even the prospect of jail. When we're all finished with Gloria, Olivar, along with her apologists, will just have to spend their remaining lives either in jail or esconced in Babuyan Islands.

And Gary, for those who know him, is also neither a man nor a woman. Nothing extremely bad about it. But if you choose a gender but you don't act like one, then, you're nothing but a pitiful sissy.

Gary is just one of many who once struggled for the people but is now a paid apologist of this devil enfant. If you remember, Gary is a former anti-Marcos student leader. He used to regale many by his wit and his rantings. Now, he rants no more. He just counts his money.

When a former activist abandons his sandals, and puts on his expensive shoes and dresses like a businessman, there's not one iota of doubt that he's already worse than those people he once criticized. The worst abusers are the ones who once shouted against tyranny.

Same goes to revisionist Alex Magno, who thinks of himself as an "Marxist" emperor. When Alex was given some 10 million pesos by a former Arroyo ally to be his consultant, Alex went all out and sold his soul. Magno always credits himself with sparking twin revolts, which, for all intents and purposes, were bogus ones.

Magno has abandoned the proletarian ways and comforts himself with the luxuries of intellectual bargain hunting. Can't really blame him. The glitter of those stolen billions are much more valuable than the praises of a few intellectuals. There's no value in those praises, except maybe getting immortalized in academic circles.

It's the fault of UP because they give their professors pitiful salaries, leading some of them to go the way of the devil instead of keeping the flame alive. Like Rizal used to say, some moths just can't stop themselves from going to the fire.

Good that Bobi Tiglao, Gloria's cabalen, is now enjoying the time of his life abroad. Unlike Alex, Bobi decided that it's just time for him to go the route of a diplomat instead of crossing swords with former comrades. I doubt if Tiglao would ever dare question those Le Cirque dinners or Mikey's US$ 1.3 million house in the states. Being used to the good life these past few years have made hard-core anti-Marcos activists like him, Gary and Alex, the foremost promoters of immorality, brutality, tyranny and even anarchy. They became worse than Marcos. And if they think that they'll not get punished by the people for their ass-licking ways, think twice.

The people never forget their enemies.

Lakas and the Binay group to join Noynoy Aquino

Senator Noynoy Aquino is sure to become the strongest presidential candidate, even stronger than Villar or former president Joseph Estrada if two major political forces merge or coalesce with the Noypi movement anytime soon.

And the possibility is higher than expected.

Yesterday was as historic as Mar Roxas announcement a few weeks ago when former speaker and Lakas original founding member Jose de Venecia Jr. and fifty other Lakas "originals" denounced the merger of their party with that of KAMPI. Since it merged with the administration party of Mrs. Arroyo a few months ago, Lakas originals led by de Venecia Jr. and former president Fidel V. Ramos have insisted that the so-called merger was illegal and was not approved by the majority of the party members.

Actually, a source, an original Lakas-CMD leader, said that the reason why they are protesting against the merger is the apparent attempt by KAMPI leaders to further raid the Lakas-CMD ranks. As far as the COMELEC is concerned, Lakas-CMD is the dominant party and the purported merger, the animal named " Lakas-Kampi CMD", is still not a recognized political party.

Now, most of the Lakas party leaders want to merge with the Noynoy for President Initiative or Noypi. Many of Lakas members believe that Noynoy represents the most viable candidate who is able to present an alternative agenda.

Noynoy is expected to announce his bid for the presidency today at the Kalayaan Hall of Club Filipino.

If Lakas breaks away from Kampi, that would dilute the vaunted power and strength of the administration machinery.

Another possibility is the break-away of another group, this time from the UNO ranks. Noypi members are courting Makati mayor Jejomar Binay to join them. Another source, this time from Binay's camp said that there's a 100% chance that Binay will join Noypi.

Noynoy will announce his candidacy tomorrow?

Tomorrow, we'll know the decision of Senator Noynoy Aquino whether to run or not for the presidency. Noynoy has been preparing for this day and there is some certainty that he will. Now, his media group has been very busy populating the public sphere with pronouncements alleging that groups are converging behind him. However, if you look closely, these groups are those actually aligned with the Liberal Party already and there is no new group registering their support behind him.

Better if Noynoy and his handlers just keep mum on this so-called "groundswell". First, they got burned when they trumpeted the entry of the so-called FPJM of Manny Portes in their group. Grace Poe, daughter of the late FPJ, disowned the group, even saying that it does not have any members, which, is true. FPJM of Portes is different from the original FPJPM, which has about 900,000 members nationwide.

Second, the more they say that there's a groundswell, the more people doubt about it. Where's the groundswell except in the minds of those who believe in the re-invigoration of the Cory magic? Better for them to just keep on organizing and making people sign that petition that Ed Roces made a few weeks ago. That is more in keeping with the strategy of the Cory volunteers in the 80's.

There are rumours that Makati mayor Jejomar Binay is being lured to support Noynoy. Binay owe the Aquinos his political career. Cory was the one who appointed him as Makati administrator. And Binay once handled the senatorial campaign of Noynoy. Some people expect him to help Noynoy get the presidency. But, Binay's hands are tied. He's aligned with former president Joseph Estrada and the only thing that Binay promises to do is be the bridge between Erap and Noynoy's group. And I think that Binay will fail in this one because Erap's backers are dead serious on him running for the presidency.

Noynoy's campaign will get a big boost if a big political personality with a legitimate grassroots network will throw his support behind the Noypi.

Who wants Noynoy to run?

Why are we so fond of emulating what Americans did or why do we always relish the idea of replicating a success story when it's always better to create something fresh and new?

Noynoy right now is re-tracing the steps of his mother, by doing the same things that her iconic mother did before she went into battle with Macoy. Many people, especially the CBCP thinks its touche. Some, however, think, it's a bad idea. In fact, many people see this as what we Filipinos call "hinihinog sa pilit."

Come to think of it, who really urged Noynoy to run? Is it really the Filipino People? If its the people, do we have concrete evidence that most of us really want him to run? Aside from those sheets of yellow paper that Ed Roces gave people to sign their names with, are there other proof that majority of us, Filipinos, really want him to sacrifice his personal freedoms and become our president?

If you listen quite closely, you'll find that only those who are either aligned with or sympathizes with the Liberal Party that says Noynoy is the one. Think about it. The rest of us Filipinos are not quite gaga over the idea simply because either we're already too pragmatic or we know that these times are quite different from Cory's.

Don't get me wrong. I want the best president to win, someone who really has the vision, the political will and the exact opposite of the one who sits illegally in that chair beside the Pasig. But, I don't want to say that I chose the lesser evil. Or, I don't want to arrive at a conclusion that I am voting into office someone who will just perpetuate elite domination at the expense of the majority.

This elections is not about personalities, I agree. It is about principles. It is about letting New Transformative Politics replace the existing old and traditional politics.

For many days now, I have been in deep contemplation. Unlike Noynoy, however, I am not about to consult my God for this one. I want to consult my people, whom I regard as the best political analyst in this country. What is their pulse? What are their feelings about this? And I don't agree that if Noynoy fails in this, that's the end of the New Transformative Politics. No. The struggle for a True, Just and Humane Filipino society will thrive with or without Noynoy.

Noynoy may be the candidate with a clean record, but so does Nicanor Perlas, and he's not getting the same reaction compared with Cory's son. Maybe because Perlas is not a Liberal and he does not have the machinery. But, he, indeed, has the principles and probably the best platform compared with all the rest of the candidates. And if this is really an election that would pit ideas against other ideas, then, Perlas deserves more of our attention than say, Noynoy who still does not have any.

Or, maybe the founder of the Young Officers' Union (YOU), my friend, Dado Valeroso, deserves more of our attention than what we're giving Noynoy. Valeroso has the academic credentials (MA from AIM). He sacrificed his life for the vision he believed in and even gave his career up just to build a New Society. And he silently wants to declare his candidacy for the presidency. Or, maybe Capt. Nicanor Faeldon deserves more of those adulations we heap on Noynoy. He's still out there on the run, convincing people of the viability of struggling against an illegal regime and getting nothing of the praises some people are giving Noynoy.

In the end I hate to say this, but we are being conditioned by media to accept Noynoy as the best alternative candidate. And probably he is. I just sincerely fear that Noynoy is being used by forces bigger than us who has vested interests, like the Lopezes whose power were marginalized under Arroyo. Or, maybe those businessmen controlling Makati wanted him to run to protect their businesses in case an Estrada or a Villar wins.

But, of course, if we, indeed want a Noynoy, then, why only now that we realize it and not before when we were on the verge of victory over Arroyo? Maybe, Conrad is right that Noynoy is destined for this. Maybe he really is the anointed. But, what are those things which Noynoy stands for? For freedom? For democracy? Or the perpetuation of elite rule?

The Aquino Problem and Pragmatism

Yesterday was a classic case of political contrasts. A Palace initiated move brought together 49 governors behind the presidential candidacy of Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, a boost to a sagging campaign, while Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III got additional support from the Kaya Natin! movement and Senator Kiko Pangilinan. Who will eventually win---the candidate with the biggest election machinery or the candidate who claims to have the support of the politicized segment of the middle class?

Aquino supporters are trying very hard to support their assertion of a "groundswell" by presenting personalities behind "people's movements" which have not even proven their political mettle in past or previous political battles. Teodoro's camp, meanwhile, is saying that they have the machinery which the Aquino side does have but in an indeterminate or inordinate way.

Frankly, showing 49 governors backing you up is more formidable than two governors. But, for an idealist, like, say Conrad de Quiros, two governors are enough. It figures why no reformist minded presidential candidate ever won in any post-Marcos elections because reformists are arm-chair ideologues with their own conceptions of reality, not rooted in actuality. Anyway,

Aquino's big problem is his lack of a well-oiled provincial machinery. He will likely get most of the votes in the Metropolitan Manila area and some urban centers as well but it is uncertain whether he registers well in sub-urban and rural areas. These problems cannot be solved by an online campaign nor a tri-media one. These are organizing problems which, at this point, can only solved through building an army of hard-core grassroots organizers who are willing to spend time spreading Aquino paraphernalia in the provincial areas.

Now, the question really is---is it a good political strategy to gather all reform-minded Filipinos in support of an Aquino bid? Yes. Will this bring victory to the so-called "reformist" block of the opposition? No.

If you look and analyze closely the present socio-economic structure of Filipino society, you will find that, to achieve electoral victory, you need to:

1. Convince or organize the 54% of the voting population who belong to the class hovering between the middle and the poor classes. This is the biggest single electoral "block" which can only be organized behind a pragmatic electoral platform.

1. This block is also fragmented into people's organizations, fraternal organizations, peace and order groups, militias, urban poor groups and majority are un-organized.
2. It is in this group that a well-oiled political machinery serves the candidate well. Since this block is not organized within ideological nor political lines, they are vulnerable or susceptible to administration-influence or even with a trapo political party like Erap's.
3. This group is highly pragmatic and will never contribute money behind any political personality's campaign (so, it is highly unlikely that Ed Panlilio's Ninoy for Noynoy campaign be able to take off)

2. In all probability, the 19% share of the middle class is not enough to win an election. And this class is totally fragmented by traditional organizations and civic groups (Rotary, Lions, etc.). And it is quite doubtful if Aquino would snare the entire class and mobilize this for his campaign since almost 30% of this has shown their preference to Chiz Escudero (based on latest Pulse Asia survey 2009) and about 28% to Villar. Now, this class would obviously break itself into tiny "blocks" which could affect either Chiz or Villar's preference share.

3. If the reformist block thinks that Mar Roxas' move would start a series of pull-backs, they are obviously wrong. If you really analyze very closely, the block that sides itself with the Liberal Party is just a small fraction of the so-called "anti-Arroyo" but not necessarily "anti-government" "opposition". They are actually a segment of the organized, politicized and middle class block which is also fragmented.

1. Yes, this block can very well comprise an election machinery but this will never match the machineries of other political parties, like, say Villar's or Erap's or even the administration machinery. Elections in the Philippines are decided by the depth of grassroots penetration. Organizers are the ones who herd voters to the precincts, who spread election info, who influences voting preferences and who practically dictates what voters will write or choose as their candidates.
2. Now, if Aquino wants to win, he may have to gather all these organizers behind him and sustain the relationship through either monthly or weekly allowances. Probably some would actually volunteer but most reliable grassroots organizers have already been "compromised"
3. Aquino should break the hold of other parties in grassroots work by convincing their organizations to show "solidarity" or "break ranks" with other political parties. It is doable yet, time is really not on their side at this point.

To defeat this machinery, the opposition needs to synthesize the idealist or "reformist" with that of the trapo opposition parties, of Estrada's and Escudero's. Never mind Villar's--he will definitely not back down since he already invested billions to his campaign. This block should convince Erap's and Escudero's to "pull-back", which, in all probability, is not "doable" at this point.

In all likelihood, Aquino's bid will go the way of Roco's campaign or even Salonga's. Hate to disappoint but look at the figures and this is true.

God in Politics or Nine Years Without God

After "some contemplation" again, Pampanga governor Ed Panlilio said he's now withdrawing from the presidential race. Remember that a few months (or weeks?) ago, Ed said that God himself told him to run. Now that he withdrew, is that a direct contravention of God's instructions to him?

Or, this is a classic case of a Miriam---I lied! :-) (remember that Miriam promised to jump from a bridge during Erap's time. When that event which Miriam said will not happen, happened, then, she dropped that classic line)

Jesus is Lord Movement leader Ed Villanueva said that he's not doing a Roxas, meaning, he will pursue his presidential run. Question--is God really behind his decision to run? Remember that it was Ed who started this " I talked with God" thing when he ran and lost in 2007. Don't tell me that God was wrong when the Almighty instructed Ed Villanueva to run?

Right now, Noynoy is inside the Carmelite sisters convent in Zamboanga. He has a week or so to do some spiritual contemplation, also asking God if running is a good thing to do. The question is--what if God told Noynoy not to run? What then? Will Noynoy be able to face the media and the crowd this September 9 and tell them that God has asked him not to run and instead, throw his support behind Erap? Will Noynoy follow what God told him?

And just like Noynoy, Noli de Castro is also asking God if he'll run or not. Noli is also contemplating on whether to run or not for the highest post.

The question is---which God? Noli, as popularly known, is a Catholic. So, it's a Catholic god then? Nah. Noli said that he's a Balik-Islam, meaning a Muslim revert. He always say that whenever questions about the legality of his marriage with now, wife(?) Arlene Sinsuat-de Castro comes up. So, sinong Dios kaya ang papanalanginan ni Noli? Jesus Nazareno or Allah?

And obviously, Gloria Arroyo is also praying to God. The question really is---is it God that she's praying before and kneeling or another God, the god of sloth and gluttony?

And I totally understand these people.

Living for more than eight years under a society without God, people like Noynoy, Noli de Castro, Ed Panlilio and Ed Villanueva will definitely want to see and talk to God.

Imagine, everyday we see photos like these (see photo on the right). Pano mo pa iisiping may Dios nyan?

I'll be with Noynoy if...

I hate to be a prick or the first one to douse cold water on this heating discussion about Noynoy Aquino, but let's dust off the star dusts in our eyes for a while and think---si Noynoy na nga ba? Or for that matter, si Erap ba ulit? Si Manny Villar na ba? Or si Chiz Escudero or Noli de Castro na nga ba?

We know Erap does not deserve a second chance. He blew his first one. We already saw a sample of his performance, and lest we forget, we were totally disgusted. That's why we ousted him in the first place.

Despite his kind heart for the OFWs, we all know that Villar is really interested only on our lands, not our welfare. Villar is spending billions for his campaign and we all know he's a businessman so he'll probably expect a pay-back. That's as sure as the sun sets in the East and rises in the West. In fact, that C-5 deal should remind us of who Villar really is.

Chiz Escudero mouths a mouthfull but it's doubtful if he'll really lead the movement for change. This early, he's being backed by trapos, like Villafuerte and of course the Cojuangcos. The problem with Escudero is we're really not sure who he really is.

Noli de Castro, well, we saw how he performs and surely, he's just Gloria's surety bond. Now, we're left with Noynoy.

If we settle for Noynoy, would he really restore order in this chaotic society of ours? Will he be willing to, say, implement genuine agrarian reform? Will he be willing to dismantle the businesses of oligarchs who continue to siphon off what the rest of us deserve? Will he be willing to fight the Lopezes of Meralco, the Ayalas of Globe Telecommunications and his relatives the Cojuangcos? And will he be willing to really protect the best interests of the workers against their abusive Tsinoy employers?

Easy to say that he will, right? Very easy to dream, but doing the right thing, implementing what is just in this society, is really very hard. It looks doable, and it is, but when push comes to shove, will Noynoy be willing to drastically reconfigurate the entire superstructure to reflect what the rest of us, the poor masses of Pinoys, want and deserve?

They say, this is not about personalities---this is about finding common ground. This will not end with Noynoy getting the presidency and us, retreating to our homes while he and his backers do all the work themselves. This is about involvement. And I agree.

Yet, let's not be fooled by propaganda---the real decision-makers will still be Noynoy and his brady bunch. Like before, we will be their sheep and they, our shepherds.

If NOynoy would be willing to lead a revolution that would:

1. destroy the hold of big comprador and landlord interests over thousands of acres worth of lands and not hand over these lands to foreign interests.

2. increase the participation of members of the academe and the civil society (meaning legitimate members of non-government and people's organizations) in governmental policy-making in all departments and local government units.

3. immediately lower food prices (i went to the grocery last night and boy! I cursed this government for not doing anything to lower the prices of goods. Pinapatay talaga tayo ng administrasyong ito! A foreigner friend of mine reacted that our food prices are much higher than in Wales. And I agree) by re-invigorating the National Food Terminal. Control the prices of goods.

4. immediately order the opening of books of major oil companies and bring back oil industry regulation. Dismantle the oil cartel immediately and jail those oil executives for the crime of economic sabotage.

5. immediately order the opening of books of major telecommunications companies and lower the call rates to respectable levels.

6. immediately institute a moral revolution that would emphasize on love of country and national interest over self.

7. streamline the bureaucracy, institute austerity measures and jail those grafters in government. Shoot them in public if necessary.

8. dismantle big gambling groups especially those led by politicians, arrest and prosecute these scums of the earth. If they resist, kill them without mercy.

9. Hunt down those big drug lords, arrest and prosecute them. If they resist, kill them and cut their heads off. And show these in public. (figuratively of course)

10. Arrest and prosecute illegal recruiters and those involved in human smuggling. If they resist, cut their heads off and show these in public. (figuratively of course)

If Noynoy is willing to do all these things, then, me and my family will die with him if necessary just to restore order in our society. My friends know me---when I say it, I'll do it.

Noynoy deserves all the help. But, let's not be a merciful lot when he's already there in Malacanang. If, after 30 days, and we see Noynoy doing all the bad things that we hate, I, together with all the New Patriots, will, ourselves, act for real change.

Wala nang pagbibigay sa mga cono.

Mar Roxas quits; throws support to NoyNoy Aquino for President

Senator Mar Roxas made history today when he announced that he's throwing his support behind the presidential candidacy of Senator Benigno "NoyNoy" Aquino. Mar made the announcement in a press conference today, September 1, 2009 at Club Filipino. The event was attended by major stalwarts of the Liberal Party. The video below was taken by Patricio Mangubat. By the way, I'll also be uploading this video on http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com/.

The way I see it, it's too early and too premature for the Liberal Party especially on the part of Mar Roxas to throw in the towel this early. First, honestly, the so-called "clamour" for Noynoy is a clamor coming from the privileged classes who find Mar Roxas a "bland and (un)winnable" candidate and Noynoy a "winnable" one. There is no basis whatsoever if there really is a groundswell of support for Noynoy.

Second, it would have been better if the Liberal Party led by Mar Roxas announced his support after the completion of the 1 million signatures for Noynoy Aquino and after the release of new survey results. The loss of organizational support for Mar might have led to the decision to withdraw but that, in itself, is not enough to withdraw from the race this early.

The withdrawal of Mar Roxas sends a very bad message to the people---it shows how weak the Liberal Party is. If you can decide to withdraw from the race based only on perceptions and possible media blitzes, it shows how weak this party really is, in terms of grassroots support.

Look, what if the latest survey results show Noynoy getting only a fraction of what Mar got since he started his campaign? What would the Liberal Party do? At least in the case of Mar, the party knows that it will get at least 18% of the votes.

Despite his ratings plateau-ing, there is still some room for improvement and I am not at liberty to discuss what those methods are. Simply put, Mar is not entirely a hopeless case. However, Noynoy is also not exactly the solution to a plateau-ing ratings. No.

The solution is fortifying the grassroots organization of the party through effective organizing efforts and possibly getting those territories of their rival political parties. Even if, say, the entire civil society throws its entire support behind Noynoy, there is still no assurance that Noynoy would even surpass the gains made by Villar's and Erap's camps.

Noynoy is an untested candidate. IN terms of electoral performance, Mar is even better. I think that Mar made a grievous and bad decision tonight.

Mar may have gotten some pogi points in terms of gallantry and being a statesman, but, it's good to be described as such if there is some basis for being so. At this point, it's too early to say if Mar's sacrifice would really (1) fortify and unify the reformist movement and (2) secure victory in the polls.

What's certain---Mar's decision further plunged his party into the realm of uncertainty and possible defeat in 2010. Why?

Filipinos don't vote for weak personalities. They always side with the strongest or perceived to be the strongest party. Mar might have been given unwise counsel, and probably some Liberal Party men told him that a Noynoy candidacy is stronger. But, how sure is Mar that Noynoy is really the strongest candidate that the Liberal Party could offer?

Okey, so what is the explanation for Mar Roxas' withdrawal? Was he influenced by pronouncements made by Aksyon Demokratiko and Kaya Natin! movement, two neophyte organizations in this game called politics thah they'll throw their support behind Noynoy? If that is so, then, poor Mar. He made a very weak statement. Aksyon Demokratiko lost by a mile in 2007 and the Kaya Natin! movement is at best, an Atenean experiment based possibly on theory rather than reality. I would probably think otherwise if it's Lakas or the Nacionalista who withdrew, but, these two? If I were Mar, I would probably think twice or thrice before I throw in the towel.

Of course, we're not Mar Roxas and he knows things better, especially in terms of how big or small his campaign organization is. What is certain is that his withdrawal this early proves beyond a doubt that he and the Liberal Party lacks the party machinery to win. And knowing this, Mar and the Liberals are probably hoping that they can exploit the "pulling power" of the Aquino political brandname to bolster party ranks. For an idealist, that's possible. But for an astute political strategist, that's wishful thinking.

The Liberal Party will not split at this point but they'll never get stronger anyhow and anyway you see it.

Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas tandem--90% possible?

Last night, the second meeting between Senator Mar Roxas and Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III was held in Makati. Liberal Party stalwarts were tight-lipped on what transpired. However, one source said that the possibility of a Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas seems plausible as each day passes.





Just recently, the Aksyon Demokratiko already invited Noynoy to be their standard bearer. There are indications that Ed Panlilio already threw his support behind Noynoy while Harvey Keh's Kaya Natin! and the Black and White Movement are already moving to fortify the Noynoy for President Movement (NAPM).





The only citizen's organization behind Mar Roxas is Akbayan, since its representative, Risa Hontiveros will be running as senator in the Liberal Party slate. Some youth organizers of Akbayan, however, said that should Mar Roxas slide down, then, the entire machinery will shift to Noynoy.

Another citizen's group, this time led by Lawyer Alex Lacson spearheaded another campaign in support of Noynoy. Read the next entry and I'll tell you why Mar Roxas is now on the verge of losing the Liberal Party nomination. And mind you, it's not just because there's a clamor for Noynoy to run.