Warning to Mr. Puno---Do Not Engineer an Admin Win in 2010

DILG secretary Ronnie Puno's was very confident when he told Vic de Leon-Lima and Karen Davila (of Pasada Sais Treinta, DZMM, 4:30-5:30pm, Mon-Friday. Kudos to Vic and Karen for improving their program. I always listen to them.) that Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro could still catch up. He likened Gibo to Tabako when the latter ran and won in 1992. Puno said that Tabako was at the bottom rung of the surveys (12%?). After a few months, Tabako surged way ahead and eventually got the presidency.

Puno's voice was very confident. He even made sure that we're all convinced, stating his "experience" in the elections. Ah, yes. Flashback to 1992 and I just remembered that Vic and Karen were talking with the architect of the country's first "dagdag bawas" scheme (if Miriam is to be believed).

Puno was sharing his experience, peppering his statements with " I saw this before.." " FVR is also like this.." and " even Gloria was like that.." and bolstering his arguments with " elections are eight months away.", " surveys are not reflective of public sentiments", " the Lakas-KAMPI machinery is strong.." yadiyadiyakyak!

When Puno was saying all these things, I told myself---meron bang alam si Puno na hindi pa natin alam? Maybe Puno already know how to automate the "cheating machine"?

Think about it. Who will operate the automated elections? Hindi ba SMARTMATIC-TIM? Who are the people behind this company? Hindi ba mga business associates of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo?

We must be very vigilant, my friends for these elite forces, are again masterminding the fraud of the new century.

What "strong machinery" is Puno talking about, eh, Lakas party members are deserting the merged group and crossing over to the Nacionalista party of Senator Manny Villar?

Even the Liberal Party is accepting Lakas and Kampi party members, especially those government officials once aligned with former president Cory Aquino. There are many "dilawans" in Lakas and Kampi. One example is Quezon City mayor Sonny Belmonte (a Lakas party member). Do you think he'll go for Teodoro instead of Noynoy? The answer is very obvious--he'll support Noynoy. And that means votes close to a million for Noynoy.

And the merged party is not even legit. There is still a pending case before the COMELEC, filed by former speaker Joe de Venecia, questioning the legality of the merger and praying that the poll body dissolve and declare the merger as "illegal".

Should COMELEC decides to legitimize the merger, the possibility of the entire Lakas party shifting their allegiance to the Liberal or Nacionalista party, is a possibility. That would dissipate Kampi ranks. Instead of Kampi raiding Lakas, Lakas will raid Kampi. And that's what this is all about.

So, if this happens, where's the vaunted strength of Kampi? Puno will find it extremely hard to justify a Teodoro win because it will just be a matter of time before the entire Lakas-KAMPI merged group shifts their entire machinery from the administration to the opposition.

Without a justifying circumstance, what will Puno use to justify both his win and that of Gibo?

Admit it---Gibo, for all his promise, is a sure loser. Probably, he'll get most of the Ilokano votes, but the Solid North will probably not deliver ALL votes to the administration. For example, Pangasinan is still solidly a De Venecia territory. A survey says that more than half of Pangalatoks will vote for Noynoy. Ilocos Sur is still Cong. Eric Singson's turf and surely, he's aligned with the Liberal Party. He'll deliver the votes for Noynoy. Maybe Tarlac will be a split vote, but Pampanga will not vote entirely for Gibo. Pampanga will go for Noynoy.

NCR is disputed territory. Erap has majority of the votes here, but should he sacrifice his bid for Noynoy, that would surely be a problem for Gibo. The CALABARZON area will probably be split between Noynoy and Gibo (and to some extent, Villar's). Bicol region is controlled by the Villafuertes and Cong. Luis Villafuerte is working very hard to slidify the votes behind Chiz Escudero. The Visayas region will probably go to Villar (most of the votes).

It will, again, boil down to the Mindanao and ARMM areas where administration Congressmen (mostly Lakas) have a firm hold. That will change if Lakas members decide to cross the rubicon (I will not be surprised if they do it before October).

So, you see, Puno will have a hard time justifying his win and that of Gibo's because of the fact that, unlike 1992, vote-rich regions as well as other areas of the country, have a changed voter landscape. More voters are aware of what's happening, most desire for change and majority want a new leader who will not continue the legacy of Mrs. Arroyo. That is the most apparent sentiment reflected in NSCB and SWS surveys.

Now, if Puno and Arroyo's gang are thinking of cheating their way to victory and are confident because majority of the AFP and PNP leadership will be peopled by their own men (PMA Class 1978), they better re-think what they'll be doing this time.

We now have a revolutionary situation. The only reason why people are still silent is because of the absence of what I call " a dramatis causa". This elections are very sensitive to a lot of people. If this administration thinks that they can get away with murder the fourth time around, they're extremely mistaken.

If they cheat, they better prepare their forces. They better be very, very prepared. Because the masses will not allow their voices to be stifled once again. And surely, that would justify New Patriots spilling over the streets with their arms.

Never cheat. Never steal our voices again. If you try, be very ready to die.