Arroyo mafia will continue in power even after Gloria steps down

Six months more and she's gone. I'm referring to Gloria Arroyo. Her spokesperson by the name of Gary Olivar said Mrs. Arroyo expects more Arroyo bashings from her detractors. Why, you ask? Olivar is supposed to talk about economics. Is Olivar preparing already from an expected slew of public outrage because of the worsening economic situation?

The economy grew by 0.08%, much lower than the government targets. Inflation has shot to double digits again and the Consumer Confidence Index of the BSP shows a negative 46%. These are indications of a mismanaged economy. It also shows that despite what government told the people that they insulated the economy from the dire effects of the global recession, the truth was actually the opposite. Truth be told--the local economy suffered because foreign funds were siphoned off abroad and no new investments were coming in. Banks are also being hit by a ballooning debt/loan crisis. Only a steady stream of OFW remittances make the economy afloat.

Last Christmas, malls opened with 80% sales bonanza but no one was biting. Filipinos are saving their monies for the worst. Ayala Malls are giving 80% off from today up to January 17 just to dispose of their old stocks but, again, no one is biting. Filipinos are feeling the economic crunch and no hope is in sight.

Yes, more than half of Filipinos expect things to get better by this year because everyone knows that Arroyo is leaving in six months time. Between now and June 30, Filipinos expect things to get worst before everything normalizes. Fact is, if you analyze it, it would take the entire year before everything settles down.

This year is a transitional year, a year of expected political and social upheavals. We don't need to be a Jojo Acuin or a Madame Auring for us to expect that, in a transition period, everything goes in different directions first before some powerful force makes these things go to just one direction.

Dismantling the Arroyo mafia network is one of the expected and the hardest tasks of the new administration, regardless of who wins. If Noynoy wins, he has to contend with the wayward allies of Mrs. Arroyo who opposes him and his fellow Liberal party members. If Villar wins and installs his own men in government, he may have to contend with overstaying stooges of the former regime who already made their fortunes in their respective departments. And if Estrada wins, expect many contending forces to again call for his immediate ouster.

The new administration's task of rebuilding damaged political and economic institutions is the hardest, uncomparable even with what Cory Aquino encountered post-EDSA uno. The tentacles of the Arroyo mafia has infected every department of government and it will not be that easy dislodging these Arroyo men from their posts.

The saddest part is that Gloria has still two more aces in her sleeves. First, the appointment of a Chief of Staff of the AFP which will happen sometime in March. And second, the appointment of additional justices in the Supreme Court. These two key acts are essential for the continued survival of the Arroyo mafia and it would take a gigantuan act by the new administration to even neutralize such actions.

If we expect the Arroyo influence to wane shortly after June 30, we are dreaming. The Arroyo mafia will continue to weave their evil wands over the land because most of them will be occupying Congress, and Congress, as we already know, has become more powerful than the Senate. Last year's cha-cha showdown between the Senate and the House of Representatives prove that, in the final analysis, it is the tyranny of numbers which enables such evil administrations to exists and perpetuate their will over a few Nationalists.

We still have the Constitutional Convention in October to contend with. This is another event which will ensure the perpetuation of the Arroyo mafia in power. Arroyo may be "out", but the tentacles and the network established by her husband, who remains the number one big-time operator in this country, will persist even beyond June 30.

What am I saying? We may have to get rid of the entire Arroyo crew in government and I believe it would take the entire first 100 days of the new administration to just do that. It may be impossible to prosecute thousands of Arroyo mafia members.  

Whoever wins the presidency will have his hands full; neutralizing these Arroyo mafia members and installing his own men in government. Even the very act of de-militarizing the civilian bureaucracy is one tough challenge which may derail the honest reform efforts of the new administration.

Warning to Mr. Puno---Do Not Engineer an Admin Win in 2010

DILG secretary Ronnie Puno's was very confident when he told Vic de Leon-Lima and Karen Davila (of Pasada Sais Treinta, DZMM, 4:30-5:30pm, Mon-Friday. Kudos to Vic and Karen for improving their program. I always listen to them.) that Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro could still catch up. He likened Gibo to Tabako when the latter ran and won in 1992. Puno said that Tabako was at the bottom rung of the surveys (12%?). After a few months, Tabako surged way ahead and eventually got the presidency.

Puno's voice was very confident. He even made sure that we're all convinced, stating his "experience" in the elections. Ah, yes. Flashback to 1992 and I just remembered that Vic and Karen were talking with the architect of the country's first "dagdag bawas" scheme (if Miriam is to be believed).

Puno was sharing his experience, peppering his statements with " I saw this before.." " FVR is also like this.." and " even Gloria was like that.." and bolstering his arguments with " elections are eight months away.", " surveys are not reflective of public sentiments", " the Lakas-KAMPI machinery is strong.." yadiyadiyakyak!

When Puno was saying all these things, I told myself---meron bang alam si Puno na hindi pa natin alam? Maybe Puno already know how to automate the "cheating machine"?

Think about it. Who will operate the automated elections? Hindi ba SMARTMATIC-TIM? Who are the people behind this company? Hindi ba mga business associates of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo?

We must be very vigilant, my friends for these elite forces, are again masterminding the fraud of the new century.

What "strong machinery" is Puno talking about, eh, Lakas party members are deserting the merged group and crossing over to the Nacionalista party of Senator Manny Villar?

Even the Liberal Party is accepting Lakas and Kampi party members, especially those government officials once aligned with former president Cory Aquino. There are many "dilawans" in Lakas and Kampi. One example is Quezon City mayor Sonny Belmonte (a Lakas party member). Do you think he'll go for Teodoro instead of Noynoy? The answer is very obvious--he'll support Noynoy. And that means votes close to a million for Noynoy.

And the merged party is not even legit. There is still a pending case before the COMELEC, filed by former speaker Joe de Venecia, questioning the legality of the merger and praying that the poll body dissolve and declare the merger as "illegal".

Should COMELEC decides to legitimize the merger, the possibility of the entire Lakas party shifting their allegiance to the Liberal or Nacionalista party, is a possibility. That would dissipate Kampi ranks. Instead of Kampi raiding Lakas, Lakas will raid Kampi. And that's what this is all about.

So, if this happens, where's the vaunted strength of Kampi? Puno will find it extremely hard to justify a Teodoro win because it will just be a matter of time before the entire Lakas-KAMPI merged group shifts their entire machinery from the administration to the opposition.

Without a justifying circumstance, what will Puno use to justify both his win and that of Gibo?

Admit it---Gibo, for all his promise, is a sure loser. Probably, he'll get most of the Ilokano votes, but the Solid North will probably not deliver ALL votes to the administration. For example, Pangasinan is still solidly a De Venecia territory. A survey says that more than half of Pangalatoks will vote for Noynoy. Ilocos Sur is still Cong. Eric Singson's turf and surely, he's aligned with the Liberal Party. He'll deliver the votes for Noynoy. Maybe Tarlac will be a split vote, but Pampanga will not vote entirely for Gibo. Pampanga will go for Noynoy.

NCR is disputed territory. Erap has majority of the votes here, but should he sacrifice his bid for Noynoy, that would surely be a problem for Gibo. The CALABARZON area will probably be split between Noynoy and Gibo (and to some extent, Villar's). Bicol region is controlled by the Villafuertes and Cong. Luis Villafuerte is working very hard to slidify the votes behind Chiz Escudero. The Visayas region will probably go to Villar (most of the votes).

It will, again, boil down to the Mindanao and ARMM areas where administration Congressmen (mostly Lakas) have a firm hold. That will change if Lakas members decide to cross the rubicon (I will not be surprised if they do it before October).

So, you see, Puno will have a hard time justifying his win and that of Gibo's because of the fact that, unlike 1992, vote-rich regions as well as other areas of the country, have a changed voter landscape. More voters are aware of what's happening, most desire for change and majority want a new leader who will not continue the legacy of Mrs. Arroyo. That is the most apparent sentiment reflected in NSCB and SWS surveys.

Now, if Puno and Arroyo's gang are thinking of cheating their way to victory and are confident because majority of the AFP and PNP leadership will be peopled by their own men (PMA Class 1978), they better re-think what they'll be doing this time.

We now have a revolutionary situation. The only reason why people are still silent is because of the absence of what I call " a dramatis causa". This elections are very sensitive to a lot of people. If this administration thinks that they can get away with murder the fourth time around, they're extremely mistaken.

If they cheat, they better prepare their forces. They better be very, very prepared. Because the masses will not allow their voices to be stifled once again. And surely, that would justify New Patriots spilling over the streets with their arms.

Never cheat. Never steal our voices again. If you try, be very ready to die.

Failure of elections possible on May 2010, says Joey de Venecia III

"A very chaotic day"

This is how Joey de Venecia III sees the May 10, 2010 elections if the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) continues on its plans of fully automating the entire elections in May 2010.

Joey, who pioneered broadband technology here in the Philippines, says that it is nearly impossible for the COMELEC to deploy 47,000 technicians to man 80,000 voting machines in clustered precincts nationwide. And another concern of Joey---these voting machines would only be delivered by SMARTMATIC-TIM three days before the May 10, 2010.

" Too many things can go wrong", says Joey, " and SMARTMATIC is not a recruitment agency". The whistleblower of the NBN-ZTE deal says that it is nearly impossible for SMARTMATIC to recruit and train 47,000 I.T. technicians in a span of about 10 months.

Besides, Joey is equally concerned about the place where SMARTMATIC will store these counting machines. When they arrive, the machines will be stored in Bulacan. Joey fears that both software and hardware might be compromised.

2G0, the Aboitiz company contracted to deliver these machines to precincts nationwide, can only cover 60% of the entire country. How about the remaining 40%? Will this be sub-contracted?

De Venecia III says that there are too many improbables in this automation project that only means one thing---chaos and possible declaration of a failure of elections.

“Anything can happen,” he said, “the transmission of the returns will be through our existing telecoms system which does not operate at 100 percent efficiency.”

Bad weather, mechanical failure or power outages could affect the transmission of the results.

Even a two percent failure would translate to 800,000 votes being lost. In a close contest for the presidency, vice presidency or senate races, this loss could alter the final results, de Venecia said.

Even the newly-designed ballot could be problematic, he said, since the voter would have so many names to choose from. The time spent in filling the ballot will be much longer than before, and voters would still need to acquaint themselves with the new form.

For one, there is no room for error in filling the ballot.

As an example, the voter must make his or her pick of 12 senatorial candidates. He or she may opt to vote for less than 12, but if the voter checks more than 12 names, his vote becomes null and void.

In pushing for the Comelec to apply full automation only to Metro Manila, de Venecia said most if not all the potential problems could be solved instantly. Media, poll watchers, concerned citizens and the Comelec itself which is headquartered in Manila would be able to see the problems as they occurred and react accordingly.

Under a worst-case scenario, de Venecia said the Comelec could declare a failure of elections if too many voters are unable to cast their votes or if technical glitches interrupt the count or transmittal of returns.

“If the automated elections go well in the NCR , the Comelec can then apply nationwide computerized polls in the 2013 midterm elections, or even in the barangay elections in late 2010,” de Venecia said.