Noynoy Aquino continues to lead in the presidential race

Senator Noynoy Aquino continues to lead other presidential aspirants in the presidential surveys. In the latest Pulse Asia report, forty four percent of 1,800 adult respondents interviewed said they will vote for Noynoy Aquino as the Philippines' next president. Pulse Asia said Noynoy's ratings remained "stationary", while all others increased.

Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar's ratings improved by 4 points (from 19 to 23%) while Joseph Estrada's ratings went up by 8 points (from 8% to 19%). Gibo Teodoro of the administration party got 3 points after remaining as a cellar dweller for some time. While the other presidential aspirants got ratings of 1% to 0.50%.

The Pulse Asia survey validated our earlier blog entry that says that should Chiz Escudero withdraws from the race, his supporters will increase the ratings of Joseph Estrada and some will possibly go to Noynoy and Manny Villar. It seems though that Escudero's constituency broke up and most transferred to Estrada and Villar.

The Liberal Party welcomed the Pulse Asia results. This shows, says the Liberal, that most people favor the advocacy of the party for an honest and clean government.

As a researcher, these survey results mean these things:

1. Noynoy Aquino, thru his relentless campaign sorties and less the "glamourous" TV ads, is solidfying his mass base support. If he sustains his lead, he will be the most formidable candidate ever in the history of Philippine elections. No other candidate has been given the mandate of 44% ahead of the elections. Joseph Estrada, who commanded the most successful presidential campaign ever, just got between 23-30% ratings ahead of the 1998 elections. He got more than 30% of the electorate vote.

2. Manny Villar's lead is still surmountable. Since Villar got the nationalist block on his side, that is about 2-3 million votes extra for him. Likewise, should the Marcoses endorse him, Villar stands to gain from the Solid North votes. If he solidies support from Mindanao and snatch Visayas away from Noynoy Aquino, it will increase his chances of clinching the presidency.

3. Don't count Joseph Estrada out yet. His ratings continues to surge, a benefit he gained from the withdrawal of Chiz Escudero. However, his mass base will just be between 20-24%, still lower than Noynoy's. In the event that Erap decides to withdraw from the race, his supporters will shift to Villar. That would benefit Villar.

4. Gibo Teodoro needs a miracle to win. He needs to make a public "disengagement" with the Arroyo administration. However, that would only translate into a ratings "push" of 8 points. Arroyo's 4% stable mass base will only be translatable to Teodoro's and give him a ratings of about 11-14%.