Noynoy still tops the surveys, yet Manny Villar is narrowing the lead. Or so it seems..

Forty two percent of Pinoys will vote for Senator Noynoy Aquino while 35% will go for Senator Manny Villar and thirteen percent to former president Joseph Estrada. The survey was commissioned by BusinessWorld, and conducted by SWS during the period January 21-24, 2010. 

The gap is just seven percentage points, which, in all indications, point to a near-statistical tie already between Villar and Noynoy. If Villar closes the gap further and sustains it, that will surely hurt Noynoy's chances of clinching the top spot.

IN the vice presidential race, forty nine percent (49%) of Filipino voters will go to Mar Roxas while twenty or so percent will vote for Loren and running closely is Makati mayor Jejomar Binay.

Bong Revilla tops the senatorial race, along with my friend, Joey de Venecia III. Joey de Venecia's III campaign is taking on a whole new tack, with his newest television ad. He's just one percentage point shy from Teofisto Guingona's which is placed at 11th spot. 

Now, let us analyze why Noynoy's lead continues to drop.

Like I said in my earlier posts, it is natural for Noynoy's ratings to settle in a realistic spot after his phenomenal "surge" to the top a few months ago. That's the law of the universe---every single thing which has weight will surely come down. A 50% or so ratings is definitely NOT a true reflection of the public's political preference for any single one candidate or personality. Noynoy's true ratings will actually be within the region of 36-40% and come May 10, 2010, that will surely go down to about 32-35%, reflective of what former president Joseph Estrada got when he ran and won in the 1998 presidential elections.

Now, the entire political scenario will change IF the following happens in the next few months:

1. Lakas-Kampi endorses VILLAR

2. Erap withdraws and endorses VILLAR

3. Ed Villanueva withdraws and endorses NOYNOY

4. Gibo's campaign sputters for lack of funds

A Lakas-Kampi endorsement for Villar will surely bolster his campaign machinery and widens his lead. An Erap endorsement will seal the deal for Villar (which in all probability, will never happen).

A likely possibility is for other reformist minded candidates to just rally behind Noynoy and put a very solid progressive and reformist movement or block. That will end the dreams of Villar for the presidency.