May 7 2010 is Black Friday in Philippine Democracy

May 7 or this coming Friday will be a very critical period in Philippine history. Our entire future for the next six years will entirely depend on the actions of political personalities and forces on this date. The Filipino People will be at the mercy of these powerful forces. This day, May 7, will be our Black Friday. By this date, we will entirely mourn the death of democracy or will see ourselves entering another dark period of our History. This is not a joke my friends. Our democracy is now under extreme threat.

First, on Friday, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is expected to appoint the successor to Chief Justice Reynato Puno. Puno is set to retire by May 17. Despite protestations against it, the Supreme Court recently decided to grant Mrs. Arroyo the prerogative to appoint the next CJ inspite of the fact that it falls within the prohibitive period for appointments as traditionally exercised and also as stated in the 1987 Constitution.

Why are sectors opposing this? One, mistrust. Sectors are suspicious and distrustful of Mrs. Arroyo. They think that Mrs. Arroyo would gain an upper hand if she personally appoints Puno's successor. These sectors believe that with this appointment, it will make the SC as Arroyo's official rubber stamp, a rump court, as some say.

With a Supreme Court for a rubber stamp, anything is possible. Mrs. Arroyo's henchmen still occupying sensitive posts in the government can very well use the SC to legitimize any illicit action. One illicit action will actually be the institution of a transitory government.

May 7 will also be a very crucial one for the Commission on Elections. Depending on certain actions by SMARTMATIC-TIM, the poll body will face two options: push thru with the elections and implement manual counting as a contingency plan or heed calls for the suspension of the elections, as proposed by Arroyo's election lawyer Atty. Romeo Macalintal. Macalintal proposes that the poll body suspends the elections for 15 days.

On Friday, the COMELEC, ICTC and SMARTMATIC-TIM would have finished replacing 76,000 compact flash cards of 76,000 PCOS machines which were already deployed in various parts of the country. Compact flash cards hold the instructions or "program" which the PCOS machines "obey". If these flash cards contain wrongful instructions, then, that would affect the results of the elections.

A defective flash card would lead to the erroneous reading of official ballots which are fed into the machines. IT experts have not noticed this before, simply because flash cards are considered not as substantial as the source codes which, until now, the COMELEC refuses to reveal to various political sectors.

Ray Roxas Chua, chairman of the ICTC, says that the "malfunction" of the PCOS machines arose when the National Printing Office (NPO) and the Comelec made certain changes in the configuration of the official ballot. Chua was not able to explain why SMARTMATIC-TIM and the Comelec failed to do an integrity check (quality assessment) prior to the deployment of the machines. Ces Orena-Drilon, host of The Rundown news program over at ANC asked him why the poll body and SMARTMATIC-TIM failed to do a quality assurance check, an SOP. Chua was speechless.

Atty. Calleja, counsel for the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting or PPCRV, says that they already talked with SMARTMATIC-TIM and that the company assured them that by May 7, they would have replaced all defective flash cards. Calleja promises to go after those personally involved in this debacle.

Now, Calleja assured the people that they are ready should Comelec decides to do a manual count but is the poll body ready for manual counting? The Comelec fails to assure us.

If the Comelec proceeds with manual count and this results again to massive cheating, then, the end result will still be a catastrophe. With a very intense elections such as this one, no political group will give even an inch of advantage to its political rivals. Groups are ready to slug it out so to speak for power. The elites are really ready to fight it out, come what may. And this is very, very serious, indeed.

In this scenario, something has got to give way. Someone has to stand down. If all these political groups clash, this will be a very serious and a very long drawn out struggle that will eventually result to something which I think every single Filipino will definitely regret later on.

By the way, a source confirmed earlier suspicions that the "alleged discovery" of defective flash cards was timed. It was reportedly part of a bigger scenario, a bigger action, that will justify an extraconstitutional move. The appearance of former General Reyes and a known close chuwawah of Mrs. Arroyo in the Comelec affirms this.

Why was Reyes acting like a rabble rouser in the Comelec today, as if he wants to instigate chaos and confusion there? After Reyes' appearance, out came the President's election lawyer calling for a postponement of the elections. Were these actions part of a bigger scenario? Most likely.

After Macalintal, out came the news of AFP Chief of Staff General Delfin Bangit's meeting with the Catholic bishops. Coincidence?

This discovery is a subterfuge meant to divert the attention of the public on the possible appointment of the next Chief Justice. It is also an occasion for unscrupulous individuals to change the flash cards. How certain are we that those flash cards which the Comelec and Smartmatic-Tim will re-install and seal are not tampered with? How sure are we that these new flash cards are not programmed to rig the results?

The very slim chance of us relying on democratic means to effect change is getting dimmer and slimmer by the day.

Philippine Supreme Court reverses itself...again!

Yesterday's Supreme Court decision allowing Mrs. Arroyo full powers to appoint the next Chief Justice is a direct blow to Philippine democracy. First, it shows that the Executive has a tight grip on a co-equal branch of government which effectively destroyed the principle of check and balance, and second, it reflects how this administration has, time and again, shown its wanton disregard in the rule of law.

The rule of law is the only thing that keeps this democracy alive and by destroying it or even casting aside traditional or customary law, puts our democracy in extreme danger. How would we explain this ruling to future students of the law? That our Highest Court has the tendency to mock itself and has repeatedly contradicted itself to suit political whims?

What are the effects of this ruling to us, ordinary citizens of this damned Republic?

First, the ruling shows us that this Court is most favorable to Mrs. Arroyo. Nine justices granted her the powers, while only one dissented. Two close allies of Mrs. Arroyo said the issue is premature while three abstained from voting. 

This shows you what will happen when an issue goes to court questioning the legality of an act made by Mrs. Arroyo. Surely, as what Makati Business Club Executive director Bertie Lim said, this court will legalize even a Martial law declaration.

Former strongman Ferdinand Marcos was the only one who effectively controlled all branches of government under Martial rule. Mrs. Arroyo is now second, yet even without declaring herself the ultimate diva.

Second, a court bound by its strong ties with the Executive loses its effectiveness, integrity and independence. How would outsiders view this Court now, as a rump one? The Supreme Court acts as a leveller in a democracy. How then will this Court pass judgment without courting public suspicion?

Third, a Court acting as arbiter in a presidential race could entirely throw the entire electoral process to the dogs. In a close fight, will the public accept the verdict of this Court acting as Presidential Electoral Tribunal? Obviously, no.

Lastly, it is evident that the real plan of this administration is institute an extra-constitutional exit for Mrs. Arroyo and pave the way for a quasi-dictatorship.

The ideologues of this administration is destroying every pillar of democracy to create a new one.

The dire warning given by Vice presidential candidate Mar Roxas is not without basis. Roxas warned that this ruling is the last in a series of acts by this administration to further its life and could very well be the last action pre-empting this elections.

Joey de Venecia III and his Fight

Joey de Venecia III is one of 50 or so people aspiring for a Senate post. And for Filipinos voting as absentee voters starting April 10, Joey de Venecia III comes to mind as the main whistleblower in the anomalous ZTE-NBN scandal.

A few people think that Joey de Venecia III does not deserve a senate seat because he belonged to a traditional political family. Most though laud and admire him for what he did--he rose up to put a stop to anomalies in government transactions. Had he not come out from his comfort zone, we would not have known these illicit deals.

Joey de Venecia III will be judged in history as the man who rose up and stood for what is Right, Just and Honest.

If he wins this May 10, 2010 elections, Joey de Venecia III will be the first citizen to ever be elected straight to the Senate. And it looks like he will hack it.

Surveys show Joey de Venecia III landing in the Magic 12 of preferred senatoriables. And asking the masses of the people also gives us a more than bigger chance of him successfully winning in this elections.

The question that everybody is asking is this---will he continue the fight for honest and good governance in the halls of the Senate?

The most expensive and the Most Violent elections in Phil History

Two things mark this May 10, 2010---the most expensive and the most violent. Inspite of the financial and economic crisis that we are suffering, most candidates are spending more than 1 billion pesos already, of course, being led by who else but the country's real estate magnate, Senator Manny Villar of the Nacionalista party. Records show he already spent 2 billion at least, two months ahead of the elections.

Okey with me if most of these went to feed the hungry, clothe the oppressed with justice and warmed the bodies of the widows. But no. These monies went to advertising, media placement and media networks. So, who did Manny Villar helped but those already awash with cash.

Imagine, where will he get the money to regain 2 billion pesos? Probably, he'll tell us that he has business partners who share the costs with him. Okey, so who are these partners? May we know so that we'll know who will probably benefit under a Villar administration?

And this is, by far, the most violent elections ever in Philippine history. The Philippine National Police has reported ninety five people killed, the most was that gruesome massacre in Maguindanao.

Both issues, if you'll analyze them very closely, is a problem of supervision. In overspending, the Comelec and the BIR are responsible for monitoring them, but sadly, they don't have the muscle nor the personnel to actually implement the law.

These politically-motivated killings are also part of the problem of supervision. The 140,000 strong police force are still insufficient to counter more than 10,000 armed groups, since most of these cops are being utilized to fight criminal syndicates (and some being used as security guards of the rich and famous).

The real problem actually lies in what people think of their respective roles in Philippine society. If, for example, people, especially candidates for elective posts, exercise self-regulation, overspending will not be a problem at all, since most will expect others to follow the same rules of the game.

If people respect the very sanctity and importance of life, he will not kill nor even think of killing another in the name of Sanctus Politio.

Hence, the very problem lies in the frames of mind of people. If people have the proper frames of reference, then, there is no need for stricter monitoring nor supervising things.

The Tipping Point

Okey, we have 50 million registered voters of which, only between 80-85% will be able to cast their votes. Analyze your Comelec data and you'll arrive at a figure closer to 40 million voters, plus or minus two, who will actually cast their votes. (10 million obviously, will not be able to vote. So there.)

So, if you expect 40 million to vote, how many of these votes will actually be counted in favor of the candidate? With a plus or minus two, assume that only around 38 million votes will be counted, either manually or electronically.

Meaning, there is an expected 2 million or so votes wasted, either due to ballots being considered "spoiled" due to human error or simply wasted due to human sabotage.

Now, if 40 million votes, that would mean they'll vote in about 250,000 clustered precincts each having 2,000 registered voters each. Picture the physical arrangement of every precinct. One precinct can actually house only 30 or 40 or so seats (one classroom=one precinct). Make that 50 seats, give the Principal the benefit of the doubt that she can actually arrange the room to accommodate 50 seats.

So, in one batch, you have 50 voters lumped in one classroom, voting. Divide 2,000 by 50 and you have 40 batches, all in one precinct. How many minutes will it take for a voter to complete the almost 2 feet long ballot? 8 minutes.

So, if humans are robots and everything goes well, 40 batches will take only 320 minutes which is about 5.2 hours. If the precinct opens at exactly 7 in the morning, expect the entire process to complete by 12pm. Now, give each voter at least 15 minutes each (finding his name, going to the election officer to get his ballot, sitting, thinking whose name to shade and so on and so forth), it would take well over 10 hours to finish the voting. So, the entire thing would probably complete at well, 5pm, just an hour early than what the Comelec expects.

And we know for a fact that not all precincts open AT EXACTLY 7AM. If a precinct loses just ONE HOUR, meaning it opens at 8AM, chances are that 200 voters will surely get disfranchised. For every hour lost, 200 voters get the boot.

Picture that happening in 1,000 precincts nationwide and you have 200,000 disfranchised and extremely angry voters.

Picture that happening in one city, and you have a very irate citizenry. Replicate that in one province,and you have a hot spot. Do that in Mindanao, and you have a situation going.

This is a tipping point which, if you look at it, do not even consider election violence or physical sabotage or jamming of counting machines or what-have-you.

It simply showed how disfranchisement can cause a lot of ruckus and probably lead to a revolt.

That is just casting of votes. Wait if you hear about the COUNTING OF VOTES.

Since the entire voting will end at 6pm, and that's nearly dark in some places, many things might happen, one of them, physical sabotage.

Many classrooms in our country are not so well lighted. Many cheaters collude with teachers during elections and jammers as small as a car key can very well, sabotage the counting. According to Comelec rules, if the machine fails to transmit the data, then, the teachers are expected to resort to manual counting of the ballots.

So, very simple. Even in areas with automated elections, chances are, excuses will be made to justify manual counting. Will that affect tallies in national posts? Yes. Will it affect tallies in local posts? Surely no. Local candidates will not allow that to happen. Yet, expect that also to happen since the names of local candidates are in the bottom rung of the 2-feet ballot.

If a precinct chooses to manually count, that will take at least two days for a minimum sized area and at least four days for those counting in the provincial level. That will surely frustrate people and will increase tensions.

Imagine where counting takes 5 days and nationally televised poll counts such as the PPRCRV, NAMFREL and quick counts of television networks show a national candidate, say Villar, leading. Five days are a lot to cook up something. Quick counts are not official counts, but traditionally, they influence politics more than anything else.

What if, example, these quick counts show varying figures, what then? How will the Comelec resolve that if only a few, say 30% of areas successfully counted the votes electronically while the rest of the 70% resort to manual? That is surely, an expected delay in the entire poll process.

A 30% automated count will not be substantial in a two or three-way fight, especially in the presidential polls. And this is not un-likely to happen. Fact is, many people expect this to happen.

That is the tipping point.

As I wrote some weeks ago, the winner in the May 10, 2010 elections will be the one who will stand up and seize the initiative. The winner will not win by count. No. He will win by default.

Breaking News! Aquino-Villar tied for the presidential race, Pulse Asia

Liberal party bet Noynoy Aquino's lead has been whittled by Nacionalista party bet's Manny Villar. In the latest Pulse Asia survey, Villar only trails Aquino by just TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS, with just 37% of voters preferring Aquino over 35% for Villar's. 

This is what I have been saying all along---Aquino's lead would surely settle in a very realistic standing and I FEAR THAT THIS IS ALREADY "IT".

This Pulse Asia survey WILL REFLECT THE FINAL ELECTORAL RESULTS FOR THE MAY 10, 2010 ELECTIONS. AND THIS IS VERY DESTABILIZING, TO SAY THE LEAST.

This shows a POLARITY which is DETRIMENTAL to the security of this country. Why so?

It opens up the possibility of two major contending groups vying for power. This is a polarizing situation which  would surely be resolved NOT in a favorable democratic way BUT in a revolutionary way.

Noynoy still tops the surveys, yet Manny Villar is narrowing the lead. Or so it seems..

Forty two percent of Pinoys will vote for Senator Noynoy Aquino while 35% will go for Senator Manny Villar and thirteen percent to former president Joseph Estrada. The survey was commissioned by BusinessWorld, and conducted by SWS during the period January 21-24, 2010. 

The gap is just seven percentage points, which, in all indications, point to a near-statistical tie already between Villar and Noynoy. If Villar closes the gap further and sustains it, that will surely hurt Noynoy's chances of clinching the top spot.

IN the vice presidential race, forty nine percent (49%) of Filipino voters will go to Mar Roxas while twenty or so percent will vote for Loren and running closely is Makati mayor Jejomar Binay.

Bong Revilla tops the senatorial race, along with my friend, Joey de Venecia III. Joey de Venecia's III campaign is taking on a whole new tack, with his newest television ad. He's just one percentage point shy from Teofisto Guingona's which is placed at 11th spot. 

Now, let us analyze why Noynoy's lead continues to drop.

Like I said in my earlier posts, it is natural for Noynoy's ratings to settle in a realistic spot after his phenomenal "surge" to the top a few months ago. That's the law of the universe---every single thing which has weight will surely come down. A 50% or so ratings is definitely NOT a true reflection of the public's political preference for any single one candidate or personality. Noynoy's true ratings will actually be within the region of 36-40% and come May 10, 2010, that will surely go down to about 32-35%, reflective of what former president Joseph Estrada got when he ran and won in the 1998 presidential elections.

Now, the entire political scenario will change IF the following happens in the next few months:

1. Lakas-Kampi endorses VILLAR

2. Erap withdraws and endorses VILLAR

3. Ed Villanueva withdraws and endorses NOYNOY

4. Gibo's campaign sputters for lack of funds

A Lakas-Kampi endorsement for Villar will surely bolster his campaign machinery and widens his lead. An Erap endorsement will seal the deal for Villar (which in all probability, will never happen).

A likely possibility is for other reformist minded candidates to just rally behind Noynoy and put a very solid progressive and reformist movement or block. That will end the dreams of Villar for the presidency.

The What ifs of the May 10, 2010 elections

I was'nt able to update my blogs for a while, too busy to even think about what to write.

First, I don't have a topic in mind. I was thinking about the "revelation" by SMARTMATIC-TIM and the COMELEC that they expect only 65% of automated machines to work come May 10, an indirect admission that they intend to subject 35% of other areas of the country to manual counting.

If that's the case then, that's one helluva story. Such a scenario would create chaos and confusion. 

Imagine May 10, with 2,000 voters clustered in precincts, not knowing if their names are surely there. I've been studying the election statistics and found that that 50.3 million who registered were not "purged" by the Comelec, another indirect admission that the poll body allowed spurious votes or names in the official registry. I checked the National Statistical Coordination Board and if you look at their projection for 2010 (those who are allowed to vote because they have or will reach majority age of 18 years old), the figure is just nearly 49 million. So, there is about 1 million or so ballots extra.

And if my hunch is correct, the poll body will allow 40 million to vote if the administration bet or that pseudo-oppositionist masquerading as a poor man reaches strategic stalemate status with the rapper politician. If they don't catch up, then its back to the 38.7 million expected voters (actual votes).

So there, if 38.7 million voters will have the chance to actually cast their votes, that would actually be 387,000 precincts.


Anyway, what is worrisome is not the voting itself but the counting. Here in this country and in any other place in the world, the counting is the cake itself, not the icing. You'll know if those 17 weeks you spent campaigning were all worth your while. Counting is where the fraudulent and scheming leeches work their magic. 


So, you only have 65% of counting machines working, that is already a cause for any presidentiable or senatoriable to question the electoral results and go to the tribunal for relief. You ask---so what you're saying is, there will be that possibility of a no-proclamation scenario? Yes. 

Imagine a Villar screaming and crying foul and filing a case before the Supreme Court questioning the poll results. 


Imagine a Gilbert Teodoro not conceding and saying that there should never be a proclamation of the winner since the 35% of the results are not in.


And imagine a Noynoy crying to high heavens because of the poll violence in the provinces and chaos in Metro Manila due to massive disfranchisement of voters.

If this automation fails, its a triple whammy for the Filipino People, and the only people laughing all the way to the bank will definitely be the Smartmatic-TIM people who got 12 billion pesos from us. And obviously, that illegal squatter living in the banks of the Pasig City will definitely have her victory. 

Funny, no one's laughing.

Gloria's stepping down and a failure of elections

Now, it can be revealed. US President Barack Obama categorically asked and demanded from Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to adhere to the democratic process by allowing the elections to push thru as scheduled and "step down gracefully". Arroyo answered by saying that she will step down on June 30,2010.

As I wrote here in this space many entries ago, Mrs. Arroyo's promise to step down is not entirely re-assuring. For one, there is still the possibility of a failure of elections. This early, IT experts have noted certain inconsistencies and possible anomalies in the SMARTMATIC-TIM automated elections plan with the COMELEC.

Second, there is that conscious effort to place close associates of the First Family in sensitive posts in the AFP and the PNP. Just recently, Gloria's fair-haired boy, Supt. Roberto Rosales (PMA Class 1978) just received his two-star rank. Other members of the class have already occupied sensitive posts in the PNP, particularly in regional and provincial directorships.

Lastly, Congressional allies of Mrs. Arroyo revived the mouth-balled charter change thru the constitutional convention route. Ortega's Committee just passed the Con-Con resolution, 6-1 yesterday. If this passes in the Congress, then, the election of CON-CON delegates will coincide with the election of elective posts in May 2010. Sources say even the minority agreed to pass this resolution.

So, expect this 2010 elections to be very noisy, very chaotic and very dangerous. Dangerous because the more participants in the elections, the more chances that this create violence.

And the more chances of a failure of elections.

Ed Panlilio---be our Moral Leader

A commenter on this space told the truth about my stand on Panlilio. She says that the reason why I discourage Ed Panlilio, who today announced his bid for the presidency in 2010, is I am frustrated over the alternative candidates of the past and taking this out on the Pampanga governor.

Jemaima, that is true. And frustration seems so lame a word to describe what I felt. In 2000, many of my generation, including those who were extremely promising were enticed by the sweet prospect of an economist cum president. Nine years later, we're not only frustrated---we're totally angry.

We thought that the problem was economic and the solution, an economist. Now, the problem is graft and corruption rooted on immorality and people generally thought that the solution lies on transforming this Republic to a Catholic colony.

Now, on Ed Panlilio, I am not only frustrated--I'm exasperated with him. Why? Because probably he misinterpreted the voice of God. Probably God asked him to continue his mission to cleanse Pampanga of dirty politics and gambling and not the entire country. Or, probably it was "Batasang Pampanga" instead of "Batasang Pambansa."

It also sent a wrong message to those who want to serve God---serve country first or serve the Mammon first. Or, a message which says " presidency instead of the priesthood." With a declining number of men going to the seminaries to apply as priests, Panlilio's act would probably worsen the number.

I remember one case similar to that of Manong Ed---Apolinario dela Cruz. Dela Cruz led a revolt in Northern Luzon against the Spaniards under the Confradia. He said God asked him to, he said. Leading thousands to slaughter, De La Cruz was eventually arrested and murdered.Others followed after him, including the 1967 massacre at the Mendiola bridge under the leadership of a certain De Los Santos.

It would have been better if Manong Ed announced his support and leadership to the New Philippine Revolution against this administration. That would have been great. That would have been inspiring. It would have been a great video grab showing Manong Ed leading thousands of flag-carrying people going to Malacanang armed with Godly will and passion.

That, I think, is the TRUE MISSION of Manong Ed---be the inspiring leader of our age. Be our Cardinal Sin. Be our moral guide. Be our Rock. That is, I think, God told Manong Ed when he was contemplating on his next political move. Unless of course, another god or a lesser being masquerading as "God", communed with him.

Integrity of the 2010 elections is at stake

Everybody knows Washington's stand---no elections means trouble for Mrs. Arroyo. That is as clear as the bright blue sky in Rio de Janeiro. And, true to form, Mrs. Arroyo did, indeed, said that elections would definitely push thru. And I believe her.

She'll push thru with it, but there's one more question---how credible would the elections be and how "peaceful" would that 2010 exercise be?

Some moderate elements of civil society would say, it all depends on us. Yeah. Sure. Right. But, we're not born yesterday.

Automation of the elections is simply no guarantee that the next elections would be as clean as we hope it would be. Why? Because associates of the First Gentleman already control it. They already won first base (COMELEC-SMARTMATIC/TIM contract). Now, what's the second base? Obviously, a smooth operations need the support of military and police officials. They're sure to get it once they replace Verzosa's men with Roberto Rosales or when the AFP changes leadership with the early retirement of Ibrado.

The crux of the matter is simply trust. Many people don't trust the current administration. And it is unfortunate. The credibility of these elections does not depend much on automation. No. It's the integrity of the present administration and sadly, there's none left.

The elections would only be credible if, say, we change the present leadership. That's the only way that elections would be deemed and viewed as "credible". There's so much distrust on the real intentions of Mrs. Arroyo's gang that people can't avoid being anxious on the future come 2010.

It's not enough that Mrs. Arroyo gives us assurance that she'll respect the electoral process. It's definitely not enough that Mrs. Arroyo speaks of an election when her dogs in Congress push for amendments on the economic provisions of the Constitution. And it hell sure is not reassuring that Mrs. Arroyo is visiting her province in Pampanga more than twenty times to believe that everything's fine. No.

It's not that she'll push thru with it---it's the conduct and integrity of the entire enterprise that is now, in question. And for the interest of the entire country, it's definitely important to ask her to either go on a leave of absence or oust her immediately. That would surely give everybody a big sign of relief.

2010 Frontline

this damned war
has reached the shore
killing that stupid boar

at the frontline.

those who want power
are coatin those raisins with flour
they scamper about and scatter
tryin to make things brighter
yet no light comes from them
they don't seem to matter

at the frontline.

someone say let's padyak our way
while other say hell let's just pay
one guy with a honeycomb
gives the mob a sweet foam
in the mouth
as he speaks with lies
entertaining those flies

at the frontline.

a lady wants to be president
yet she even can't fix her resident
another one wants to be "it"
yet he even can't stand the itch
of licking the butt
of that sonafabitch

at the frontline.

a prayerful man offers himself for the job
but he can't even find the right mob
to convince that he meant well
no one can even tell
'cos he's hidin the scars

at the frontline.

a man with a past
dreams of getting the post
but he's the most undecided
he's afraid that he'll be cited
with two wives he mated
saying he's a Muslim
when he prays before the Nazarene
and even pulls the figurine

at the frontline.

Who's worthy for the crown
among the people in this town?
Will no one stand up
and hold the fuckin cup?

Is there a horseman who can ride
gallop and proudly stride
down memory lane
of glory's past?

Who'll say I'll be happy
to bring down America's puppy?
When all are like Starbuck's
frappy

at the frontlines?

Ronnie Puno and GiboTeodoro--out of Arroyo's circle

Puno has just arrived and denied that he underwent heart surgery, contrary to reports that came from the palace. However, notice his face. It's so swollen. Did Puno lied like what his boss did when she underwent a breast reduction surgery (which palace spokesperson described as biopsys)?

Puno also denied that he already fell from presidential grace. He just brushed off speculations that he's on the way out. Puno said that he still enjoys the "trust and confidence" of Arroyo. He even showed his force---a retinue of PNP officials---whom, as I was told, were asked to attend the press conference. What was the purpose of the "show of force"? To tell the palace that he's not a sissy?

Despite his denials, there are very strong talks about a Cabinet "reshuffle" shortly after the State of the Nation Address (SONA). Puno is reportedly being "eased out" of Arroyo's inner circle, not because of his opposition to cha-cha, but his reported "closeness" with Defense secretary Gilbert Gibo Teodoro who is now (confirmed) out of the loop. Malacanang is just waiting for the "right time" to do the re-shuffle. And why is Malacanang intent on changing Cabinet members? Another jab at Hello Garci two?

No. This is a classic display of self-preservation, to avoid a Honduran solution. Unknown to many, the Honduran coup is actually a covert US operation. It has the blessing of the Obama administration. It is part of the so-called "roll-back strategy" of the Obama administration to re-assert their presence in Latin American politics.

Now, the question really is---will the same thing happen right here? Yes, it will.

By the way, former president Fidel V. Ramos again urged Mrs. Arroyo to announce her political plans by way of the SONA on July 27. But, why now when Mrs. Arroyo's absent from the political scene? Naku, idol, I think you're just positioning. Why not tell that straight to Mrs. Arroyo's face? O, dare?

Extra Voting Time Increases Election Fraud Risks

Comelec just extended the time for you to vote to 11 hours, justifying the move as an accommodation for new voters. For some, that's okey since it will allow more people to go to the polling centers and cast their votes. I have a different take though.

Historically, the percentage turnout has always hover between 70 to 80% of the total voting population. So, even if we increase the time to vote, the figure will remain the same. The extra time will not really increase the actual voting percentage.

But, that's not the point I'm driving at. My concern is the counting of the votes would probably start at 7pm, meaning after night fall. And you know what it means, right?

Computer machines depend on electricity supply. If there's no electric supply in an area, how would they actually count the votes? Surely, some areas would resort to manual counting. Of course, COMELEC would say that there are generators at hand. What if these suddenly conk out or are physically sabotaged? What then? Definitely, some BEI members would decide to count the votes manually.

Counting these votes under the dead of the night is really very risky. It attracts mischiefs. Knowing how traditional politicians think, they would surely do everything possible to still influence the votes to sway in their favor, inspite of automation.

Likewise, some areas in the Philippines suffer from communication problems. Weak signals occur in certain areas in the provinces after night fall. What then? How then would they solve such a problem like that should it happen, especially when it's already dark.

COMELEC should re-visit and re-assess its decision to give extra time to vote. This is too risky.

Pampanga Governor Panlilio goes back to priesthood and Pimentel's Pseudo Oppositionists

It's definitely official and you read it first here---Pampanga governor Ed Panlilio is going back to the priestly class by 2010. Yes, Panlilio who earlier intimated his desire to run for the presidency, is taking a back seat and for good reason--he and Isabela Governor Padaca's negotiations with the Liberal Party fell thru, leaving them in the lurch. Without a strong political machinery, Panlilio and Padaca's chances of clinching the presidential and vice presidential or even the senatorial spots are close to nil. The Liberal Party has Mar Roxas already and they're just looking for his running mate.

Likewise, a new political movement has announced the candidacy of Senator Richard Gordon. As i write this, there are five (5) confirmed candidates for the presidency in 2010:

1. Richard Gordon, being backed up by the Bagumbayan Political Party
2. Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party
3. Manny Villar of the Nacionalista Party
4. Either Chiz Escudero or Gilbert Teodoro of the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC)
5. Joseph "Erap" Estrada of the JEEP NI ERAP/Partido ng Masang Pilipino or PMP.

It seems that there are at least three clear groups claiming to be "opposition"---Roxas, Villar and Erap. Gordon's movement is not technically "opposition" but can be described as "neutral" (neither here nor there, I suppose) likened to that of Manoling Morato's party when he ran in 1998.

If Loren decides to throw her hat unto the ring, she might find herself forming another party since her political party (NPC) is full of presidential aspirants. She may have to settle for the vice presidency.

Possible mergers

Now, the possibility of the Lakas and Kampi merger is about " 80 percent complete", according to Lakas-CMD spokesman Zubiri. Mrs. Arroyo is currently engaged in talks with Presidential Political Adviser Gabriel Claudio.

A Lakas-CMD-Kampi merger would surely field in Vice President Noli de Castro as presidential bet and possibly, Teodoro. Now, if the opposition has a problem, the administration also has a very clear dilemma.

The field of candidates is far and wide, which includes Teodoro, Escudero, De Castro and Loren Legarda. A coalition would pit these four personalities against each other, leading to expected fractures and fissures in organizational unity.

If the administration would field a De Castro-Teodoro tandem, the NPC may have to contend with an Escudero-Legarda one, which, in all honesty, is quite formidable compared with a De Castro-Teodoro. If these tandems run against each other, they will split the administration vote.

Escudero-Legarda may have to position themselves as "opposition" to avoid such a scenario which in this case, would surely clash with the "United" opposition led by Erap. Erap would probably enter into a compromise with the administration, since, he will never be allowed to run for another term. This compromise would surely result to the "opposition" anointing a Manny Villar as their bet. Running as Villar's vice president would be either Jinggoy Estrada or JV Estrada, proxies of the former president. A Villar-Estrada tandem is a sure winner.

Possible tandems

For Lakas-KAMPI: De Castro-Teodoro
For NPC: Escudero-Legarda
For UNO: Villar-Estrada
For himself: Gordon and ?
For Liberal Party: Roxas and Padaca (?)

If these tandems or configurations push thru, then, it's a sure win for the Opposition, the one being led by Erap. Why?

Surely, De Castro-Teodoro will not be eating up the constituency of a Villar-Estrada since it is proven by recent elections that Estrada has his own strong mass constituency. The "Erap" magic is still there and the administration knows it. It would definitely be the mass following of Gordon who'll eat up the constituency of De Castro-Teodoro or can even be vice versa.

Gordon would surely eat up the administration areas, diluting support for De Castro-Teodoro.

The Roxas group would surely eat up the Escudero-Legarda constituency (or can also be the other way around) which is about 12-25% of the electorate. Remember that both groups appeal to the intelligentsia and some segments of the C-D class; yet not as wide as that of Erap.

So, the only one with the solid constituency and possibly the eventual winner in 2010 would definitely have to be the one being run and controlled by Erap.

Now, the question---is there any other force equal or similar with Erap's? The answer is none. Even if Ping Lacson tries his hand at challenging the Erap group, he will find it very difficult since the people favor Erap more than Lacson. There is no chance for Lacson to even eat up Erap's constituency since Lacson does not have a solid grassroots organization to speak of.

So, the clear winner in this case is Erap's group.

Mar Roxas and the Search for the Maginoo

I admit--I was a vocal critic of Senator Mar Roxas. Eversince he debased himself with that Mr. Palengke campaign, my high regard for the good senator fell. Among the bevy of senatoriables in his generation, Mar, for me, was the best of the best. Being an academic, for me, it's utterly senseless for someone as brilliant as Mar to undertake a campaign that was too baduy and too cutesy for comfort. Yes, he landed Number One on the first try. Why? Because people wanted to give him a chance to show that beneath those Mr. Palengke suit lies a true, blue, brilliant leader wanting to spearhead the campaign for true change.

In his first years, Mar Roxas did'nt disappoint the people. He spearheaded the Young Turks in Congress. Exhibiting integrity, Mar was the epitome of a fine leader we never had before. In my mind, he was the prime example of a maginoo, a true patriot.

However, in the last few months, especially when he announced his desire for the presidency, Mar turned out to be a letdown. His stand on issues sometimes ran counter to what the people feel. There was this disconnect from Mar Roxas' thoughts and political philosophy with that of the people's. As one observer noted, Mar is showing his true colors as a brilliant technocrat instead of showing his populist robe. To win, you need to be a populist. And most of those who support him, wants him to be a populist.

That was my expectation last Friday, January 9. Along with fellow bloggers DJB, Ding, Jester, Flowell, Marck, CaffeineSparks, and a host of others, I was expecting to talk to a veteran politico. I was expecting that Mar Roxas will mouth platitudes, and a ton of generalities on questions about the economy, etc. the way politicos do.

I was proven wrong.

Mar Roxas showed exactly the opposite. He was frank. He showed brilliance in his answers, especially that animated debate with DJB on the Bangsamoro question, on the issue of lingua franca and the Reproductive Health bill. I was expecting a politico, but I met a professor.

I also expected someone without any ideological platform. Again, I was wrong. Analyzing him and observing his demeanor when he was talking with us, showed me that this person has strong principles and strong opinions. He knows what he's talking about and he can defend it to high heavens.

I liked what he said when Ding asked him about his relationship with Korina. Mar told us straight and without battling an eyelash---that's (marriage) a personal decision between Korina and him. Ergo, whatever people think about his thing with Korina, he does'nt care. He loves Korina, period. And he does'nt give a damn whatever people think about it. A true maginoo.

Very presidential, don't you think? It shows that Mar cannot and will not be influenced by any outside view. Mar is his own man. He has his own take on things and simply, his views is as rock-solid as steel. Yet, beneath that veneer, I also sensed that Mar is also a man who can take the blows, and accepts countrary views. He can take a punch. Yet, he's magnanimous enough to accept comments and synthesize good views with his views.

Mar Roxas exhibited the finest character of a statesman, an academic, an ideologue and a doer--traits which I expect for my future president to have come 2010.

More than this though, I find him to be a gentleman. When asked about his future intentions on marriage, he said that he must be excused this time since his personal relationship with Korina should be best left to him and Korina. Good answer.

In my entire life, I voted just once---in the presidential elections of 1992 when Liberal Party and former Senate President Jovito Salonga ran. I'm not a Liberal by the way. I just thought that Salonga is better than Fidel V. Ramos.

Now, I definitely see the prospect of a good president in the likes of Mr. Mar Roxas. Mar is a work in progress and truly, Bobby Capco and the rest of the nationalistic staff of the good senator will definitely have their hands full in the coming weeks and months.

Mr. Senator, you have my vote. And I'll try to convince others to follow you. You have the potential of becoming the best president of this generation.

The Escudero Paradox: Pseudo Obama

There's one branding principle which politicians probably would find hard doing, and that is being true to themselves. For Filipino politicians, being "two-faced" seems the norm rather than an exception. And Senator Francis Escudero seems one of them.

Escudero's paradox is something historic. It's the usual story of a young politician trying to find his niche in the world. When he found his voice, he was good at it. People connected with what he said. He became the true representative of the people. He represented their rage and them to him. 

When he already got what he longed for, he's now suddenly changing into the mold most despicable. Those whom he lambasted in Congress are now his peers and "buddy-buddy" at the Senate. 

Yes, he's not running for a presidential campaign come 2010, not because of his age, rather I know that deep inside Escudero knows he'll not win. He's peaking very early in his political career. And the more he does those "modulated" speeches, the more people are finding out he's a fake. A fake Obama. Why?

He's now siding with Gloria. He now says that why oust Gloria now when we suffered for 7 years already, and what's 2 years more? Well, coming from a scion of a political clan, that seems easy. But, tell that to 3 million starving families, can they endure 2 years more of misguided rule?

George Santayana says that those who haven't studied history are condemned to repeat it. Escudero is no different from a young Maceda or a Mike Defensor or a Gilbert Teodoro or a Remulla or a Loren Legarda. They just can't be trusted.  They just used the people to get what they want. They used the rhetoric of change and manipulated the trust and confidence of the people. I remember one movie made by Mel Gibson about the Scottish struggle for independence against Britain. "Robert", the son of a feudal lord, betrayed the hero just so he can be king. 

Where's the Michael Collins of our age? 

A Trap

The hands of de-escalation experts are now being felt in the light of the ZTE deal. A concerted effort to de-escalate the continuing and increasing momentum of groups opposing and asking for Arroyo's head through the media, mass organisations and established institutions is being implemented involving the highest down to the lowest rungs of the regime. Millions of pesos are being spent ostensibly to control and take charge of the situation. Some media personalities have been compromised. Traps are being laid out to diffuse the boiling situation.

One such trap is the highly publicized CBCP emergency meeting. Operators of the palace allowed the media to heighten public expectation for a stronger CBCP statement, knowing fully well that the CBCP is a traditional institution and will not issue a stronger political statement other than the call for communal action. Historically, the CBCP has been known to be conservative, even as far back as the time of Marcos. That's the reason why Manila's Cardinal Sin stood up in the first place because the CBCP can't commit itself to oppose Marcos.

So, those groups who still peg their support for an ouster call through a Church leadership should not be dismayed. Rather, read Aries Rufo's article at NewsBreak which tells you why the CBCP can't really issue a denouncement of Arroyo's regime.

Groups should highlight instead the growing mass movement for enlightenment among the citizenry. That, in the absence of a strong singular leadership, groups should still express their sentiments against this creeping conjugal greed. I believe it would take a while for this thing to blossom into "people power" but, like I said in my previous blogs, time is not on the side of those who favor Arroyo's head. 2009 is just around the corner and if groups fail to maintain momentum and gain sufficient numbers of persuasion, then, it would be all over.

Thus said, it is highly important that groups work for the massing up of at least 100,000 people come Friday. Why? Because it would show that despite these concerted efforts at derailing their initiatives, the people still went there to express their anger against Arroyo.

Tomorrow's Friday mass rally should be a shining moment for Philippine history. It should be the fullest expression of collective action by a people fed up with the lies, with the corruption, with graft and the filth of the human soul.

RPM Prescription 2

The Economic system: Beneficent Capitalism

The economic system is basically capitalist yet operating under socialist control. It is similar to the Chinese model where free enterprise is being exercised in selected industries where it is strong. Underdeveloped industries are protected from globalism through government intervention. Government intervention is limited to sectoral laws, not management. Management is to be exercised by specialists, not by government agents.

The system has a spillover mechanism that ensures the lower classes to benefit from economic gains. Through existing government agencies like the SSS, GSIS and Pag-ibig, the collective economic gains are to benefit those in the lower rungs of society.

The Political System

The polity shall be governed like a corporation, with its own Board of Directors as represented by a Council. A president shall be appointed to serve as the spokesperson of the Council. Members of the Council or Board shall emanate from the People's Congress, which are to be elected by the People in direct elections. To be a member of the Council, one must be directly elected by the members of the People's representatives themselves in open balloting.

Council of Elders

A Council of Elders shall be formed with past presidents sitting as counselors. This Council shall likewise have members from the senior ranks belonging to People's organizations, Non-Governmental Organisations and even dissident or insurgent groups. They shall create policies and vote as a whole. However, these policies shall be in the form of recommendations to the Council.

The Board

The Board or the Council shall be the implementing agency of the state. They shall implement laws enacted by the People's Congress. They shall have control over the armed forces and enjoys police power to enforce the laws throughout the archipelago.

Members of the regional congress shall form part of the Board.

The People's Congress

The People's Congress is the legislative arm of the state. It shall be composed of people's representatives elected by the people themselves through direct elections. How to be a member of the people's congress?

Elections shall be held in the barangay level. Those elected as chairmen of the barangays shall form the city or town congress. Among members of the town congress, they shall elect their representatives: one for the provincial congress and the others, as executive officers (Mayors, Vice Mayor, etc.). Those elected from the provincial congress shall form part of the regional congress. Members of the regional congress shall elect their representative. Those elected as regional representatives shall join the Board.

Members of the provincial congress shall represent the people in the People's Congress.

The Bureaucracy

The bureaucracy shall operate as corporations. Every department or agency of government shall have its own Board. Critical departments shall be headed by members of the State Board.

Every board shall be represented by one regional congress representative, one NGO or PO representative, one or two members of the academe of their choice and senior career professionals. They shall elect their own president to serve as the board spokesperson or representative.

Nature of the struggle

The RPM believes in the concept of revolution. It embraces revolution as a necessary tool for change. It accepts the notion of peaceful revolution yet recognizes the necessity of armed struggle.

The strategy

RPM recognizes that strategy depends on the existing objective conditions of the society. In the current state of affairs, RPM believes that a combination of both peaceful or parliamentary and armed struggle are necessary.

Analysis of 2010 elections

RPM believes that the current administration is determined to launch countermeasures to prevent a presidential elections in 2010. First, the head of state is threatened by a scenario of change. Second, its allies are fearful of persecution. And third, the ruling party's own existence is also threatened by an expected defeat in the polls in 2010. There are strong indications that a parliamentary shift is being done in the woodworks.

However, RPM is ready to support young leaders to the highest echelons of power. Should an election occurs in 2010, RPM will support Senator Mar Roxas as president and Senator Loren Legarda as vice president, provided that they support RPM's vision of an open democratic Filipino society