Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Electronic Garci--a permanent destabilization?

And so we are heading for a trap. And we simply don't know about it, until now.

The plan is simple--how to disarm would-be challengers to a fraudulent elections? Make their head win and make his win a hollow one. The Greeks have a term for this--a pyrrhic victory.

A few weeks before the elections, Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino made a threat--if he loses, chances are, this administration manipulated the results to deprive him of his victory. That pronouncement, though denounced by quarters close to the palace, had a chilling effect, especially those who want nothing more than an extension of their stay in Malacanang. That palace over there is our very own version of Orodruin or Mount Doom in the Lord of the Rings movie. And of course, Frodo tries to win it over Gollum, who, in our present time, represent that woman who claims to have won as Congressman of Pampanga.

And the solution is simple--since the Liberals were so successful in conditioning the minds of the public of a Noynoy win, why not give it to them?

Giving them the presidency will calm the waters so to speak. What these Liberals don't know is this--you can have a President without powers, right? You can have the head, but they can "sweep the rug under the King" anyway.

True--Noynoy won, but the party he represented lost in both the Congressional and local races. A string of Liberal governors, led by Grace Padaca of Isabela, Fr. Ed Panlilio of Pampanga and former Bulacan governor Josie dela Cruz lost their respective bids. The Dys won in Padaca's turf by 51%. Panlilio was trounced by the wife of a jueteng lord in Pampanga while 8 board members of dela Cruz won, except her.

That's in the gubernatorial side. It was a massacre in Congress--only 40 plus Liberals there. How can a president institute changes he wants when he's practically powerless?

How about in the local government races? How many Liberal mayors won? In Metro alone, the seat of power, rest assured that the Liberals led by Manila mayor Alfredo Lim, Herbert Bautista of Quezon City, and those from the North and South will defend the seat of power. How about those in nearby provinces?

How will he be able to fend off trapos lurking in his midst when he has minimal support from Congress and lesser still in the local government units. Use pork as bait, some suggested. Right. That's trying to say that expect nothing to change since Noynoy will still use what his predecessor did in consolidating power.

Noynoy is practically isolated, early on in his term, vulnerable in all fronts. Enemies of change are stronger and larger than him. Noynoy is in quite a bind.

The Liberals forgot one lesson in Philippine politics---numbers, not pork, commands. Numbers are what matters in this game called power politics.

Without a strong ally in the vice-presidential post, Noynoy is left to fend for himself. Is it enough that Big Business and civil society are there for him? No.

Volunteer groups who lent their energies for him, must stay put and defend him if necessary. The forces of evil still lurk, with their groups all worked up.

They are now out there, discrediting the elections, trying to use it as a divisive tactic. Deprive Noynoy and his allies of those crowds who were behind his win, to isolate him. By isolating him, he's now ripe for the picking.

And the Liberals have no choice--they have to respect an all-evident fraudulent elections because not doing so would mean they question the victory of Noynoy. But, how about Mar Roxas?

And that's the point of all of these things---create a wedge between the Aquinos and the Roxas, thereby, weakening them. Make Aquino win, and that would calm the waters. Make Roxas lose, weakening the group even more.

While Liberal local candidates lick their wounds, would they allow themselves to concede knowing full well that injustices were committed? Would they be self-less and swallow their pride just so the victory of their leader is kept intact?

That's the thing---isolate Noynoy and his group, throw a pebble in the placid political pond and discredit a 14 billion peso democratic exercise. You therefore create confusion. You therefore create doubt. You therefore, create a permanent destabilization.

By permanent destabilization, you make the presidency vulnerable. A vulnerable presidency will have a hard time changing things for the better.

Or worst, vulnerable against extra-constitutional actions.

And what is the ulterior motives of these groups out to subvert democracy for their own selfish ambitions to power? Derail the proclamation, that's one. Or simply create permanent destabilization, like what Hello Garci did during Gollum, err, Arroyo's time.

Effects of a shallow victory

Expect a destabilized environment for the next three years, with traditional forces of republicanism hounding the new administration with charges of impropriety left and right.

Expect some groups to demand a change in the charter and a return to the old order. Expect groups to divide the unity of the services and the military organization.

A solution to the quandary

There is, however, a solution to this. And this will make the enemies of change quake in fear.

Noynoy Aquino must surround himself with new people to make his administration unpredictable.

If he surrounds himself with former technocrats, they are quite predictable. The formula for survival is simply be unpredictable, like water, the Chinese says.

With new faces and of new blood, without any political debts tugged in their waists, these people would be able to strengthen Noynoy Aquino's administration and avoid it being destabilized.