Sunday, May 16, 2010

Mr. Palengke's predicament and 14 million Filipino voters who failed to vote

Only 73% of the total registered number of Filipino voters were able to actually cast their votes last May 10. Those 27% or 13.7 million voters were either disfranchised, were'nt able to go to the precincts due to work, or, as reports say, a million to five million of them were victims of a new scheme---preventing voters from going to their assigned seats in the actual day of the elections.

Comelec previously said, they expect between 80 to 85% of the voters to cast their votes. In the day of the elections itself, 27% of the people failed to cast their votes. In real terms, that is nearly 13.7 Million voters, more than the 800,000 lead margin of Jejomar Binay against Mar and could probably upset Aquino's lead over Estrada. Aquino's lead is between 5 to 6 million. What if these 14 million disfranchised voters went against Aquino and majority of them voted Estrada and/or Villar?

Even a fraction of this 13.7 milliion could change the political fortunes of Mar Roxas and Jejomar Binay.

It could also probably affect the tenth to the thirteenth standing in the Senatorial race. What is the probability of the people really not voting for Lapid? High, since there is a probability that these 13.7 million Filipinos are celebrity haters or not as jaded as those who voted for Bong Revilla or Leon Guerrero.

The one person with an enormous problem is Mar Roxas. If he loses the count to Binay, for concrete reasons of fraud, how then will he contest this? By going to Congress on May 27 and file protests? If there was fraud, it is like admitting to former president Joseph Estrada's charge that there was indeed, "electronic Garci" and " irregularities in the PCOS machines". How will this affect his buddy, Senator Benigno Aquino III, who leads Estrada not just by a mile, but by almost 5 million.

And when the Comelec admits that 700 PCOS machines faltered, that's about 140,000 "spoiled" votes? That would change the political fortunes not just of the mayors, governors, Congressmen, but even Senators and the Vice President?

How will the elites resolve this contentious issue between Roxas and Binay? I say, let Roxas win. Binay, anyway, still has his Makati turf. If Mar loses, he'll be a bigger problem than Binay.

It could have been very different if Aquino was trailing Estrada, the elites would have raised hell (not just a howl). The system was probably designed to favor Aquino and damn the others, says my favorite barber. Anyway, was it just Aquino who said that another EDSA was in the offing if people cheat him?

Next time, if Villar runs again for President, he should be intelligent enough and say that he'll go to the streets if cheated. Had he did so, Villar could have been at second place. Or, even at first.

By the way...

I am sorry to presume that the 13th and the 14th slots in the ongoing Senate count could still become members of the chamber. According to Atty. Harry Roque, only 12 winners will be included in the present number of 2013 term Senators. To complete the slate, the Senate has to announce a special election for the purpose of electing additional members of the Upper House. This can be done in the forthcoming barangay elections in October.