The Poe Strip Tease Show—acutely similar with that of Pnoy’s Necropolitical Strategy in 2009.
Grace Poe is always saying that the more people throw dirt at her, the more determined she becomes to finally stake her political future and run for the presidency. Honestly, I find her pronouncements rather mayabang.
Read this and you'll find that Poe's candidacy is actually material only in delimiting the growth of Mar Roxas' mass base. A Poe candidacy will affect Roxas' more than it does to Binay's.
The camp of Senator Grace Poe is reputedly crafting a platform of governance. Poe claims that she is in consultation with different groups. These people are reportedly giving her information about what ails Philippine society at the same time, advising her on the things needed to be accomplished for a better society.
While at the same time saying that she is still undecided and is still thinking of running for president or not come 2016.
Bull. Crap.
This slow strip show is not at all amusing. Why the tease, Ms. Poe-Llamanzares? Why not say outright that you are running for higher office? If the reason is you’re afraid of opening yourself up for criticism, it will surely happen anyway before, during or surely after you file your CoC this October. That’s part of the game. Unless, of course, you’re deathly afraid of being haunted by the specter of an infraction you even admitted publicly last 2013?
Poe’s handlers are trying to do the same exact formula they used for then Senator Benigno Aquino III in 2009. Initial calls for Pnoy’s candidacy came shortly after her mother was buried. It escalated to a crescendo months before October of 2009, and the same events were reported to media—Pnoy billeting himself in a seminary with priests and nuns with him. Stories about his parents were re-published. Pnoy’s life was put on the spot, with emphasis on his being “honest” and of being “different from his former professor, Gloria Arroyo”. Pnoy was even reported to have been in consultation with different groups to form a platform of governance.
The same script is being followed now. Poe is reportedly in consultation with groups. Poe, in her public speeches, says that she is still “in contemplation”, alluding to Pnoy’s “self-imposed” seminary “live-in” in 2009.
Pnoy used necropolitics in his way to electoral victory. Grace Poe is also doing it, invoking the name of her dear departed and popular father to advance her own personal and political interests.
In her press conferences, Poe is peppering them with necropolitical language such as “according to my father”, and using her adoptive mother, Susan Roces as a shield against integrity attacks. Knowing her lineage and how conservative the Cruz (Roces) family is, such a tactic is definitely not welcome at all.
The fact is—in the provinces, Grace Poe posters with her dead father have been plastered all over along major highways. Is that the demeanor of a person who is not running for office? Poe is again, using the name of her dead adoptive father, FPJ, in furthering her own selfish political ambition.
Honestly, what is Grace Poe fighting for? By clinching the number 1 spot in the Senatorial race, that is enough vindication already for her father. By taking on the causes of the people thru legislation, Poe has probably made her father happy. Then, why trouble with other matters such as this run for the presidency?
Poe’s legislative record is as spotty as her true genealogy. Review the bills that she filed and every single one is still pending before Congress. Nothing has been made into law yet, and now she claims that she is ready for a bigger and higher calling?
Bull. Crap.
For those who think that attacking Poe benefits Binay or Mar, think again. If Poe decides not to run for the presidency, that is actually not entirely okay for both candidates. A one-on-one would surely increase the possibility of that eventually turning into an armed confrontation later. Do you think Mar’s camp would allow a Binay win? That also applies with the Binay’s. Do you sincerely believe that Binay would not fight for his right for the presidency? 2016 is an opportunity for both, and likewise, the biggest political risk for both. The one who loses here goes straight to retirement. No one has actually recovered from a serious loss like this. Estrada recovered because he was unduly and inhumanely persecuted and ousted from power. Estrada’s camp successfully established the belief of restitution to power as a form of justice for the injustice which his political enemies did to him. In this case, a defeat for Binay or Mar means retirement from politics. Defeat means the end of a career.
A third force avoids such a possibility from happening. The more personalities throwing their hats unto the ring, the lesser possibility of 2016 eventually going to the dogs, so to speak.
Now, will a Poe eat the constituency of Binay? Not a chance. Everyone knows how valuable having a solid mass constituency is. Poe has none. She is perceived to be a strong candidate because of the support of a segment of the middle class, but every astute political observer knows this is entirely not enough to guarantee victory.
It is more likely that Mar’s base will surely become smaller still if Poe runs for the presidency. Poe and Mar share the same constituency. Both will surely cancel out in the end game. Who will benefit in the end is Escudero. Poe’s popularity will lift Escudero’s while affecting Mar’s. And in a 3-party fight or a multi-party fight, it is Binay who is expected to win.
Showing posts with label jejomar binay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jejomar binay. Show all posts
Friday, August 7, 2015
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Aquino-Cojuangco clan and Miners triumph in electing next President
President Aquino has just endorsed someone who he describes as the "tuwid na daan" candidate as his best possible successor. For course, this is somewhat a damper since Senate president Franklin Drilon has just revealed what Pnoy is expected to do after his last State of the Nation address--proclaims his anointed one, and surely, everyone expects him to anoint Mar Roxas.
Aquino's pronouncement yesterday is somewhat an anti-climax because every Juan already knows who he would anoint. Pnoy has no choice but to toe the party line because he risks isolation. The minute Pnoy announces his true preferred candidate, Pnoy loses his main support base. With a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem looms, Pnoy has no other option except to accept his party's decision to field an unpopular candidate. Pnoy's hands are tied. He risks creating another possible political "enemy" in the camp of Roxas.
With Poe running for the presidency, Aquino's future is already secured. That five-hour dinner aims to assure the departing Chief Executive that no criminal case would be filed against him. A Mar victory is an icing in the cake. Poe is not expected to do the right thing and punish those responsible for the celebrated DAP/PDAF scandal. Why?
Who supports Poe and Escudero but none other than the Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC which is controlled by Danding Cojuangco, uncle of the president. Aside from Cojuangco, the Zamora brothers and Ramon Ang of San Miguel Corporation. These people are MINERS.
Ang is interested in Tampakan gold mines in Cotabato, while the Zamoras maintain several mining concessions. Of course, the Cojuangcos are active as well in the extractive industry in cement.
Who triumphs if Poe succeeds in her candidacy? It would be the miners. These financiers expect their Return on Investments or ROI, and it will not just be political ROI.
And if Roxas succeeds, who wins? It would be Eric Gutierrez, the mining partner of Edgar Erice, the lapdog of Roxas in the Liberal party. Gutierrez is a protege of Zamora. So, even if Zamora is not physically there in support of Roxas, he has his proxy in the person of Gutierrez.
See those luscious forests in Mindanao? It would surely be gone the minute Poe or Roxas wins. Heard those deaths in Semirara? That would increase the minute either one of these candidates win.
Scoping these candidates for the presidency and surely almost everyone with the exception of Ping Lacson has backers connected with the mining sector.
If Poe or Roxas wins, their backers in the business community also wins. And we all know what happened during the Aquino administration, when no one among his erring Cabinet members got punished for their dastardly sins against the people because they were well protected by the political equity of the incumbent President. This should change with the next administration.
Now, before we even consider who to vote for, please for the sake of our country, our choice should never be an emotional one. The next president should be elected based on meritocracy.
Why? Because the next six years would see this country prosper beyond everyone's expectations. Our politics should mature. Our governance should improve to complement this growth in the economic sector.
Aquino's pronouncement yesterday is somewhat an anti-climax because every Juan already knows who he would anoint. Pnoy has no choice but to toe the party line because he risks isolation. The minute Pnoy announces his true preferred candidate, Pnoy loses his main support base. With a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem looms, Pnoy has no other option except to accept his party's decision to field an unpopular candidate. Pnoy's hands are tied. He risks creating another possible political "enemy" in the camp of Roxas.
With Poe running for the presidency, Aquino's future is already secured. That five-hour dinner aims to assure the departing Chief Executive that no criminal case would be filed against him. A Mar victory is an icing in the cake. Poe is not expected to do the right thing and punish those responsible for the celebrated DAP/PDAF scandal. Why?
Who supports Poe and Escudero but none other than the Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC which is controlled by Danding Cojuangco, uncle of the president. Aside from Cojuangco, the Zamora brothers and Ramon Ang of San Miguel Corporation. These people are MINERS.
Ang is interested in Tampakan gold mines in Cotabato, while the Zamoras maintain several mining concessions. Of course, the Cojuangcos are active as well in the extractive industry in cement.
Who triumphs if Poe succeeds in her candidacy? It would be the miners. These financiers expect their Return on Investments or ROI, and it will not just be political ROI.
And if Roxas succeeds, who wins? It would be Eric Gutierrez, the mining partner of Edgar Erice, the lapdog of Roxas in the Liberal party. Gutierrez is a protege of Zamora. So, even if Zamora is not physically there in support of Roxas, he has his proxy in the person of Gutierrez.
See those luscious forests in Mindanao? It would surely be gone the minute Poe or Roxas wins. Heard those deaths in Semirara? That would increase the minute either one of these candidates win.
Scoping these candidates for the presidency and surely almost everyone with the exception of Ping Lacson has backers connected with the mining sector.
If Poe or Roxas wins, their backers in the business community also wins. And we all know what happened during the Aquino administration, when no one among his erring Cabinet members got punished for their dastardly sins against the people because they were well protected by the political equity of the incumbent President. This should change with the next administration.
Now, before we even consider who to vote for, please for the sake of our country, our choice should never be an emotional one. The next president should be elected based on meritocracy.
Why? Because the next six years would see this country prosper beyond everyone's expectations. Our politics should mature. Our governance should improve to complement this growth in the economic sector.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Will a Roxas-Poe tandem be enough to defeat a Jejomar Binay?
It seems that, based on newspaper reports, President Aquino himself is brokering a Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem. Sources say a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem is a 100% certainty already. Lately, things are reportedly changing, as Aquino himself is trying his darn best to isolate Escudero and give a Roxas-Poe a chance.
Closest associates with Chiz say the Senator will think twice campaigning against Poe. Poe is in a bind. If she runs as vice president, chances are good, because she fares well at the surveys. That will leave a biblical fight between Roxas and Binay, which, if surveys are again to be believed, would result to a Binay presidency.
Binay's numbers may be slowly going South, but that is exactly what the LP camp wants us to believe. Look closely at these surveys and the opposite is the actual result. Binay is not losing his base. Grace Poe's numbers are improving because she is getting those additional points from somewhere, possibly from Bongbong Marcos' or from other names put there by the survey firm. Binay is holding on.
If talks falter, that assures a Poe-Escudero tandem, which, to be blunt, benefits Escudero more than Poe. Poe would have to fight it out with the vaulted LP machinery and the UNA. Without a very solid support base, Poe stands to lose.
Escudero, meanwhile, will be the runaway winner in the vice-presidential race if Bongbong Marcos will not run. If the NP fields a Cayetano-Marcos campaign, Cayetano will surely lose yet Marcos will definitely win.
Meanwhile, Senator Antonio Trillianes is definitely sure of running for the vice presidency. He's expected to give his opponents a run for their money since his political machinery is stable and expansive.
There is a belief that a two-way fight might result to a dismal defeat of Binay. I don't believe that yarn. Ask around and you'll know what the masses think. In a two-way fight between Roxas and Binay, people will choose Binay anytime. There is this unexplainable disdain against Roxas by most people.
In a two-way fight between Poe and Binay, Poe is expected to put out a good fight but eventually Binay will emerge the winner. If Poe gets Roxas' constituency and some of former president Joseph Estrada's, that is more than enough to defeat Binay.
However, in a three-way fight, with Binay keeping his 25-30% mass base, Poe could probably pull out a stunner since she will eat Roxas' constituency up and may possibly get the numbers enough to pull Binay down to a very slim margin.
Possible configurations this 2016:
1. If talks between the LP camp and the Poe-Escudero camp fails, Mar Roxas may have to run all by himself, which, to be frank, will be perceived as a weak campaign leading to his second defeat at the polls.
2. Binay's camp is leaning towards Berberabe as a potential running mate yet there is a surprise man in the equation which is being convinced to run opposite Binay. I am not at liberty revealing this man but if he agrees, his tandem with Binay will surely be one of the most talked about tandems of this election.
3. The NP is still in a quandary: field their own or coalesce and ensure the victories of their senatorial candidates. There are reports that a Cayetano-Marcos is being prepped. We all know what would happen to Cayetano but at least that gives him a proper "training" for the 2022 elections, yes?
4. The Poe-Escudero tandem is 100% certain. If this happens, expect a Binay-Escudero administration.
5. A Binay-Marcos administration is only possible if Poe runs as a presidential candidate. If Poe runs for the vice presidency, she wins and a Binay-Poe administration looms.
Closest associates with Chiz say the Senator will think twice campaigning against Poe. Poe is in a bind. If she runs as vice president, chances are good, because she fares well at the surveys. That will leave a biblical fight between Roxas and Binay, which, if surveys are again to be believed, would result to a Binay presidency.
Binay's numbers may be slowly going South, but that is exactly what the LP camp wants us to believe. Look closely at these surveys and the opposite is the actual result. Binay is not losing his base. Grace Poe's numbers are improving because she is getting those additional points from somewhere, possibly from Bongbong Marcos' or from other names put there by the survey firm. Binay is holding on.
If talks falter, that assures a Poe-Escudero tandem, which, to be blunt, benefits Escudero more than Poe. Poe would have to fight it out with the vaulted LP machinery and the UNA. Without a very solid support base, Poe stands to lose.
Escudero, meanwhile, will be the runaway winner in the vice-presidential race if Bongbong Marcos will not run. If the NP fields a Cayetano-Marcos campaign, Cayetano will surely lose yet Marcos will definitely win.
Meanwhile, Senator Antonio Trillianes is definitely sure of running for the vice presidency. He's expected to give his opponents a run for their money since his political machinery is stable and expansive.
There is a belief that a two-way fight might result to a dismal defeat of Binay. I don't believe that yarn. Ask around and you'll know what the masses think. In a two-way fight between Roxas and Binay, people will choose Binay anytime. There is this unexplainable disdain against Roxas by most people.
In a two-way fight between Poe and Binay, Poe is expected to put out a good fight but eventually Binay will emerge the winner. If Poe gets Roxas' constituency and some of former president Joseph Estrada's, that is more than enough to defeat Binay.
However, in a three-way fight, with Binay keeping his 25-30% mass base, Poe could probably pull out a stunner since she will eat Roxas' constituency up and may possibly get the numbers enough to pull Binay down to a very slim margin.
Possible configurations this 2016:
1. If talks between the LP camp and the Poe-Escudero camp fails, Mar Roxas may have to run all by himself, which, to be frank, will be perceived as a weak campaign leading to his second defeat at the polls.
2. Binay's camp is leaning towards Berberabe as a potential running mate yet there is a surprise man in the equation which is being convinced to run opposite Binay. I am not at liberty revealing this man but if he agrees, his tandem with Binay will surely be one of the most talked about tandems of this election.
3. The NP is still in a quandary: field their own or coalesce and ensure the victories of their senatorial candidates. There are reports that a Cayetano-Marcos is being prepped. We all know what would happen to Cayetano but at least that gives him a proper "training" for the 2022 elections, yes?
4. The Poe-Escudero tandem is 100% certain. If this happens, expect a Binay-Escudero administration.
5. A Binay-Marcos administration is only possible if Poe runs as a presidential candidate. If Poe runs for the vice presidency, she wins and a Binay-Poe administration looms.
Monday, June 22, 2015
Binay quits Cabinet--why now?
Vice president Jejomar Binay has tendered his resignation as head of the OFW and housing sector of the Aquino administration. His irrevocable resignation was submitted personally by his daughter, Cong. Abby Binay. Several sectors believe that this might be the consequence of a falling out between Binay and his erstwhile buddy, President Benigno S. Aquino III.
With Binay distancing himself from Aquino which is a few months away from the 2016 elections, what is the consequence of such an action?
Senator Antonio Trillanes IV says this is a signal for the Aquino administration to go "all-out" against Binay. What does this mean? Does this mean that Binay will be "fed to the dogs"--a validation of earlier fears of the Ombudsman ruling against the Binays and submitting a probable cause charge before the Sandigan?
If that is the case then do we see the Binays behind bars before they file their candidacies before October?
If I'm the adviser of Pnoy, I would advise moving against the Binays because that would be a sign that the move is overtly political. The Aquino administration would be courting danger. That is a self-destabilising move.
Don't count VP Binay out. Binay is a survivor. Binay has so many cards in his sleeve.
One should not discount his years as a politician. His network is deep. He can pull off a surprise.
What the people expect the President to do is prepare the government for the transition. It is not advisable to wage a war when you are exiting from the political scene unless of course, you want nothing more than ensure your fate post-election?
An astute political observer would say that the President should act more presidential now that he has a few months to go. The reason is the Office of the President is not just a PUBLIC OFFICE but the HIGHEST OFFICE of the land. It is not a property of any body or any interest--it is of the Filipino People. Regardless of who the President is, this office should be treated as an INSTITUTION and not the sole property of anyone.
Now, is Binay's resignation a portent of things to come? Do we expect fireworks very soon between the President and Binay? Is this a confirmation of earlier reports that Pnoy has chosen Grace Poe as his candidate and not Mar?
This is a deft move on the part of the vice president. Now, he can go for the jugular. He can present an alternative viewpoint of the successes of the Pnoy administration. But, will this work for his advantage?
With Binay distancing himself from Aquino which is a few months away from the 2016 elections, what is the consequence of such an action?
Senator Antonio Trillanes IV says this is a signal for the Aquino administration to go "all-out" against Binay. What does this mean? Does this mean that Binay will be "fed to the dogs"--a validation of earlier fears of the Ombudsman ruling against the Binays and submitting a probable cause charge before the Sandigan?
If that is the case then do we see the Binays behind bars before they file their candidacies before October?
If I'm the adviser of Pnoy, I would advise moving against the Binays because that would be a sign that the move is overtly political. The Aquino administration would be courting danger. That is a self-destabilising move.
Don't count VP Binay out. Binay is a survivor. Binay has so many cards in his sleeve.
One should not discount his years as a politician. His network is deep. He can pull off a surprise.
What the people expect the President to do is prepare the government for the transition. It is not advisable to wage a war when you are exiting from the political scene unless of course, you want nothing more than ensure your fate post-election?
An astute political observer would say that the President should act more presidential now that he has a few months to go. The reason is the Office of the President is not just a PUBLIC OFFICE but the HIGHEST OFFICE of the land. It is not a property of any body or any interest--it is of the Filipino People. Regardless of who the President is, this office should be treated as an INSTITUTION and not the sole property of anyone.
Now, is Binay's resignation a portent of things to come? Do we expect fireworks very soon between the President and Binay? Is this a confirmation of earlier reports that Pnoy has chosen Grace Poe as his candidate and not Mar?
This is a deft move on the part of the vice president. Now, he can go for the jugular. He can present an alternative viewpoint of the successes of the Pnoy administration. But, will this work for his advantage?
Friday, September 19, 2014
Binay assumes statesmanship in speech---a small man being bullied by a Cono in the person of Cayetano
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| Binay goe on high ground which frustrated his enemies |
When a brand is being attacked, which in this case, the "Binay" political trademark, what is the best solution? The best way is to go back or revert to the brand's DNA. Why?
One must remind people of why they supported the brand in the first place. Reminding them, meaning the people, the audience, of the Binay political trademark evokes in them the feelings and thoughts which they originally had and had contributed towards their support of the vice president.
Fact is, the speech is a good example of the use of metaphors. The speech is filled with metaphors that appeal to the masses.
The vice president reminded people of his proletarian roots, of his struggle as a human rights lawyer and of his efforts to uplift the lives of Makati residents. He then distances himself from his political nemesis by stating that he came from the lowest rungs of society, he knows the condition of the masses and he wants the model of service he already did in Makati to benefit most of the country.
The thing is, says the vice president, is that some forces who belong to the traditional rich, are raising hell, and trying to prevent him from his ambition of giving comfort to the poor.
By using this strategy, the vice president effectively used metaphors to connect himself with the masses.
What the Vice President meant was all these attacks were perpetuated by rich people, referring to Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV. Fact is, the speech was directed at Cayetano, who is widely believed to belong and being supported by rich financiers.
So, what is the image being evoked when you hear the speech? It is a strong image of a high-nose white man symbolized by Cayetano, and of a mosquito (as described by former senator Joker Arroyo) as represented by Trillanes IV, bullying a small, brown man symbolized by the Vice president Jejomar Binay.
What a creative move! The speech demolished whatever moves the opposition against the Vice President planned or is still in the works, because what the Vice President did was to elevate the discussion and provided the masses the MOTIVE behind the attacks.
Now, the opposition criticized the Vice President for not answering point-by-point allegations against him. Why would he?
Who, in his proper mind, would do that? That is like foolishly stepping on the pathological trap ensnared by his enemies. The opposition wants nothing more than get free space in their propaganda. The answer to that is limit this space by not engaging them in a public forum.
The opposition would rant and rant but they will not succeed.
(By the way, read by second book on Public Relations and Issues Management to be published soon on Amazon)
Monday, September 15, 2014
Political full court press up against Vice President Jejomar Binay
Vice president Jejomar Binay is besieged..politically. He is now being attacked on all corners. His former political friends now his embittered foes are launching bombs almost every day.
At his left are his former political associates—people whom he used to entrench himself to power. At his right are close personal associates, like President Benigno S. Aquino III, who have distanced themselves from him due to his involvement in the current controversy behind that billion peso government building.
It seems that the strategy is to isolate Binay from his closest supporters who belong to the middle class. Their wrecking campaign may have achieved little in demolishing his stature as the frontrunner in the presidential surveys, yet, it is causing serious trouble with his support from the middle forces and with the business community.
For Binay to win, he needs logistical support from his political base. Normally , this comes from contributions from the business community.
Seems like these attacks are trained at isolating Binay from his potential and present financiers and make him weak and unable to move and campaign.
Binay’s communications team may have assessed this strategy in the wrong way. They think that this campaign aims to drag Binay down in the surveys. They think that these attacks are aimed at his strong mass base of voters.
Wrong. Admittedly, Binay has his solid supporters from the mass of voters. These attacks are being articulated for those among the middle forces, or voters from the middle class and for the business community, for businessmen to form a strong aversion against him, for being corrupt.
Corruption is a big election-related issue for businessmen and for reformist-minded voters among the middle class. They have the money. They have the network and financial strength to push or pull a presidential candidacy down.
This is the core strategy which Pnoy used last 2010. Most of those who campaigned actively for him were members of civil society and SMEs. They were not just active campaigners but influential voter-getters who convinced many of their workers to vote for Pnoy.
However, given the very shallow bench of aspirants for the presidency in 2016, with even the likes of Miriam Defensor-Santiago now being considered as a contender, Binay is expected to remain a top choice because no one among those being considered equal him in anyway.
Now these attacks could move either way—it may propel Binay to the top or it may actually drag him to the pits like how former Senator Manny Villar experienced when he threw his hat unto the presidential ring in 2010.
The clitcher in this teledrama being parlayed by Binay’s attackers before the media is not about Binay’s version of a burloloy building, but the eventual effect of such an involvement in an alleged corruption---his bloated bank accounts.
The next episode seems to be questions about how he got so wealthy in such a period of time when Binay is not a businessman like Villar.
Binay himself said that he came from the lowest rungs of society. He was just a human rights lawyer when he began his political career as a mayor. As a lawyer, Binay did not have any note-worthy client to speak of. How then did he amass so much wealth?
At his left are his former political associates—people whom he used to entrench himself to power. At his right are close personal associates, like President Benigno S. Aquino III, who have distanced themselves from him due to his involvement in the current controversy behind that billion peso government building.
It seems that the strategy is to isolate Binay from his closest supporters who belong to the middle class. Their wrecking campaign may have achieved little in demolishing his stature as the frontrunner in the presidential surveys, yet, it is causing serious trouble with his support from the middle forces and with the business community.
For Binay to win, he needs logistical support from his political base. Normally , this comes from contributions from the business community.
Seems like these attacks are trained at isolating Binay from his potential and present financiers and make him weak and unable to move and campaign.
Binay’s communications team may have assessed this strategy in the wrong way. They think that this campaign aims to drag Binay down in the surveys. They think that these attacks are aimed at his strong mass base of voters.
Wrong. Admittedly, Binay has his solid supporters from the mass of voters. These attacks are being articulated for those among the middle forces, or voters from the middle class and for the business community, for businessmen to form a strong aversion against him, for being corrupt.
Corruption is a big election-related issue for businessmen and for reformist-minded voters among the middle class. They have the money. They have the network and financial strength to push or pull a presidential candidacy down.
This is the core strategy which Pnoy used last 2010. Most of those who campaigned actively for him were members of civil society and SMEs. They were not just active campaigners but influential voter-getters who convinced many of their workers to vote for Pnoy.
However, given the very shallow bench of aspirants for the presidency in 2016, with even the likes of Miriam Defensor-Santiago now being considered as a contender, Binay is expected to remain a top choice because no one among those being considered equal him in anyway.
Now these attacks could move either way—it may propel Binay to the top or it may actually drag him to the pits like how former Senator Manny Villar experienced when he threw his hat unto the presidential ring in 2010.
The clitcher in this teledrama being parlayed by Binay’s attackers before the media is not about Binay’s version of a burloloy building, but the eventual effect of such an involvement in an alleged corruption---his bloated bank accounts.
The next episode seems to be questions about how he got so wealthy in such a period of time when Binay is not a businessman like Villar.
Binay himself said that he came from the lowest rungs of society. He was just a human rights lawyer when he began his political career as a mayor. As a lawyer, Binay did not have any note-worthy client to speak of. How then did he amass so much wealth?
Friday, May 2, 2014
Jejomar Binay leads prexy bets--the question is--is he the one, really?
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| Photo politics in the works? |
And notice how Mar patted the vice president in the back as if to say that he will be safe in the event that he, Mar, takes the top plum. This photo expresses too many glaring differences.
If you ask me, this photo shows how 2016 will eventually turn out. Observers should take 2010 as a lesson in electoral politics---big political machines are no match to the underdog.
Binay won on the strength of his own grassroots machinery plus those of Erap's. Villar tried to pull the rug under Erap and transpose it in his own Nacionalista party. He failed.
Binay meanwhile, is a safe bet, safer than Loren and of Mar's who are perceived publicly as bets of the ilustrados. Being the underdog, it is expected that voters will go with Binay.
However, take note that Binay won via the slimmest of margins. Yes, he appears and is considered strong now. Yet, lessons in History should be taken into consideration by people who want Binay to win--that Binay's positive gains in the polls should not be allowed to slid down the drain. This happened to many people already---De Venecia and Villar. They were very strong in pre-election surveys yet lost in a very bad way come election time. Philippine Agenda has a very good take on this see link.
Good if Binay sustains his lead. Good if Binay maintains his advance against his present political rivals. Binay as president is the best choice, since he is expected to maintain the present policies of the Aquino administration with some modifications.
The bad thing now, politically, is no one among those who are being bruited about as Binay's rivals deserve the people's trust.
Grace Poe who is a far second, is not keen on taking this role this early. Her feat in 2010 is no fluke. Yet, let's admit it that those votes were meant to really be impressive since voters felt that they should give her their support to vindicate their idol, former actor and presidentiable, Fernando Poe Jr. Poe as president is something which will take a different outcome since Pinoy voters are traditionalists. It is easy to defeat Poe in propaganda.
Escudero's chances at the presidency is slim since his rivals already discovered a clink in his political armor. Yes, his relationship with Heart is something being talked about yet it will not be enough to propel him to victory. Fact is, it might even be a factor in his defeat.
That 13 million votes of Bongbong Marcos inspite of the existence of the Yellow Army and the strength and power of the anti-Marcos forces did not stop him from getting into the winning circle. Yes, those votes were far less than Poe's but it shows how strong the Marcos political brand still is. This also reflects a yearning need among members of the underbelly of Philippine society of the concept of "order" which represented the Marcos brand name.
There are talks about a "dark horse" emerging from the sidelines. Among the present crop of political personalities in our midst, who will be that "dark horse"? Some say, its Panfilo "Ping" Lacson. There are talks that Lacson will gun for the Liberal party presidential nomination, something which I believe is more of a suicide for the party rather than an assurance of victory.
It would take a gargantuan leap for anyone to erase those unsavory things which stuck to Lacson's political brand name. Yes, like Pnoy, Lacson was a senator. Yes, there is still a tight loyal base to support him should he jump into the bandwagon. However, Lacson has a klink in his armor, something which is very easy to expose and for the public to believe in.
Another dark horse is Miriam Defensor-Santiago who continues to do the campus rounds to entertain the young college students with her witticisms. But, for serious voters, that is about it. They are entertained by Santiago's speeches and antics, but will it be enough to consider her as a serious presidential bet? Some people say yes. Most would probably disagree. Santiago suffers from a Pichay disease---highly popular yet greatly detested, even, untrusted. As what veteran political analysts know, popularity is just secondary, even a tertiary consideration. Voters might remember your name but it does not necessarily follow that they will vote for you. I don't know how high or low Santiago's voter conversion is, but if Santiago is thinking of reprising her 1998 bid, that is far off. Would you vote for someone whom people think as some sort of a moon lover?
I agree with UP professor Clarita Carlos---the possibility of a dark horse getting the top plum is there. The obvious question is---who, then, is this dark horse?
A dark horse is someone who is popular yes, and is now involved in the political game. A dark horse who will just appear out of nowhere and declare himself as a strong bet for the presidency will surely learn a bitter lesson from the very start.
These people are the only ones left to be considered "dark horses"---Robredo widow, a young Congressman like Miro Quimbo, or religious leaders, sans Eddie Villanueva who already suffered humiliating defeats already only a thick skinned schizo would ever think of telling him to again jump into the fires of politics, or a Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao for president? Possible but highly unlikely. The Filipino People are still not as desperate as others think they are.
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
Our President for 2016
By 2016, some forty million Filipinos will again go to the polls to vote for their president. Fifty one percent of these millions belong to the 18-34 years old age group, mostly high school graduates, working mostly in service, industrial and agricultural sectors and are highly mobile.
They have just three issues in mind: rising costs of everything, corruption in government and joblessness. These are issues which affect the gut and have been issues since this Republic came to being.
Again, voters will elect those who they think understand their predicament, someone with a very practical solution to pressing daily issues, and someone who provides the hope that many of these passive survivors need to hear, and cling themselves into.
Those who aspire for the top post will try to amplify their visions and themselves before the media. Many of them will use the internet to plead for the support of the Intelligentsia while use traditional modes of contact with most of those who will vote.
Those who successfully connected themselves with parents will definitely win. Those who animate the minds of the influencers will win.
If elections are held today, Vice President Jejomar Binay is the best man to beat every single one of those who dream of occupying Bahay Pangarap, one of them Mar Roxas.
Why Binay? Because people see in him something which they have. They see in him not just a visionary but a hard worker. He worked himself up. He belonged to the masses and someone even think that he is like Hugo Chavez.
How about Mar Roxas? Well, if he can shed his Mestizo skin, be forthwith, ask his friends to stop pressing private firms for reportedly election funds, and be as honest as possible in discussing his vision for the country, then, maybe, just maybe, he increases his chances for the top plum.
There are others who deserve a break.
Manny Villar remains a highly probable candidate. Bongbong Marcos, to my mind, has the qualities of a great leader and president. Unknown to many, Bongbong Marcos is a radical and an iconic figure. He could propel the country towards greatness again.
For our next president, we need both a popular and a strong willed individual. Popular because he uses that to justify his actions. Strong willed because he needs that for the bureaucracy to toe the line and for everyone to fear him and lessen the incidence of graft and corruption.
They have just three issues in mind: rising costs of everything, corruption in government and joblessness. These are issues which affect the gut and have been issues since this Republic came to being.
Again, voters will elect those who they think understand their predicament, someone with a very practical solution to pressing daily issues, and someone who provides the hope that many of these passive survivors need to hear, and cling themselves into.
Those who aspire for the top post will try to amplify their visions and themselves before the media. Many of them will use the internet to plead for the support of the Intelligentsia while use traditional modes of contact with most of those who will vote.
Those who successfully connected themselves with parents will definitely win. Those who animate the minds of the influencers will win.
If elections are held today, Vice President Jejomar Binay is the best man to beat every single one of those who dream of occupying Bahay Pangarap, one of them Mar Roxas.
Why Binay? Because people see in him something which they have. They see in him not just a visionary but a hard worker. He worked himself up. He belonged to the masses and someone even think that he is like Hugo Chavez.
How about Mar Roxas? Well, if he can shed his Mestizo skin, be forthwith, ask his friends to stop pressing private firms for reportedly election funds, and be as honest as possible in discussing his vision for the country, then, maybe, just maybe, he increases his chances for the top plum.
There are others who deserve a break.
Manny Villar remains a highly probable candidate. Bongbong Marcos, to my mind, has the qualities of a great leader and president. Unknown to many, Bongbong Marcos is a radical and an iconic figure. He could propel the country towards greatness again.
For our next president, we need both a popular and a strong willed individual. Popular because he uses that to justify his actions. Strong willed because he needs that for the bureaucracy to toe the line and for everyone to fear him and lessen the incidence of graft and corruption.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Binay defends porkers
Vice president Jejomar Binay describes Ruby Tuason's testimony as a "dud". The former human rights lawyer brushing aside such a valuable direct testimony from the one who claims to have distributed the monies herself, talked with those involved face-to-face and even claims to have gotten millions as commissions, with documents and all, and all of these are just "duds"?
Binay might have thought that it will serve him good defending his pals from funds indiscretions. In my book, those who defend these people from these infidelities in the custody of public funds are themselves, equally guilty of committing the same thing.
I just don't know if Binay has his own ghost projects. Everyone knows that he has his sets of condominium units though.
This just means to me that if Binay becomes president, he will be tolerant of porkers. What on heavens' name is the world turning itself into?
Stealing people's monies is bad and detestable. Period. No amount of rationale is enough to justify it. You stole people's monies, period.
What this whole pork barrel scam teaches us is very simple--those who live in palatial houses, some of them, are big-time thieves dressed in barongs or americanas. We condemn bank robbers and thieves yet we fete these people with garlands every single time they attend events, especially weddings and all.
Now I know why the business community fears for a Binay presidency.
Binay might have thought that it will serve him good defending his pals from funds indiscretions. In my book, those who defend these people from these infidelities in the custody of public funds are themselves, equally guilty of committing the same thing.
I just don't know if Binay has his own ghost projects. Everyone knows that he has his sets of condominium units though.
This just means to me that if Binay becomes president, he will be tolerant of porkers. What on heavens' name is the world turning itself into?
Stealing people's monies is bad and detestable. Period. No amount of rationale is enough to justify it. You stole people's monies, period.
What this whole pork barrel scam teaches us is very simple--those who live in palatial houses, some of them, are big-time thieves dressed in barongs or americanas. We condemn bank robbers and thieves yet we fete these people with garlands every single time they attend events, especially weddings and all.
Now I know why the business community fears for a Binay presidency.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
2014--a political year for the Philippines
2014 is also a political year for the Philippines--that is, for those who aspire the top Executive post in 2016. This means that we will all see these political personalities becoming more active and more engaged next year than this year's.
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)
Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.
A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.
In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.
There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.
Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.
Epalism is one thing that most people hate.
One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.
Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.
Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.
Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.
Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.
People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.
Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.
How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.
Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.
Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?
Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.
How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.
Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.
The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.
Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.
His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.
(expect a second part of this analysis..)
Friday, July 12, 2013
Jojo Binay, Judas, Carlos Garcia and corruption
In January 2011, Vice President Jejomar Binay reportedly wrote President Benigno Aquino a letter asking that the President dignify a deal made by the government granting freedom to disgraced AFP comptroller Carlos P Garcia in exchange for him returning half of the loot he did against the soldiers of the Republic.
The President reportedly and politely declined the request.
Garcia has been proven to have robbed us of millions of pesos from the modernization fund as well as other deals. He should be rotting in jail and being fed animal feeds. Yet, no. He is staying in a jail cell, equipped with all the necessities of a good life.
What about his accomplices? Where are these thieves? Apparently, they are just playing golf somewhere, unmindful of the nasty things they did against the Filipino People.
Vice President Binay is no fool. He knows what he's doing. It is highly suspect what his motivations are, but definitely, whatever you think of it, or whichever way you look at it, that action is truly against the interests of hard-working Filipinos.
I thank God that , at this early, the Almighty is revealing the true nature of these people who want to be the next President of this Republic.
Binay is your modern day Judas, who will sacrifice the very interests of the People in exchange for personal glory and a few pieces of silver.
The President reportedly and politely declined the request.
Garcia has been proven to have robbed us of millions of pesos from the modernization fund as well as other deals. He should be rotting in jail and being fed animal feeds. Yet, no. He is staying in a jail cell, equipped with all the necessities of a good life.
What about his accomplices? Where are these thieves? Apparently, they are just playing golf somewhere, unmindful of the nasty things they did against the Filipino People.
Vice President Binay is no fool. He knows what he's doing. It is highly suspect what his motivations are, but definitely, whatever you think of it, or whichever way you look at it, that action is truly against the interests of hard-working Filipinos.
I thank God that , at this early, the Almighty is revealing the true nature of these people who want to be the next President of this Republic.
Binay is your modern day Judas, who will sacrifice the very interests of the People in exchange for personal glory and a few pieces of silver.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
UNA's political blunder
The United Nationalist Alliance or UNA probably realized its error at this very early in the game. This explains why the newly formed alliance has suddenly announced its "open-ness" on the possibility of coalescing with the Liberal Party, the main administration party. What made UNA realize its early and probably, a most erroneous mistake?
Two things: when they realized that funds are not going their way and lastly, when they found themselves isolated politically. UNA misread the situation. They thought that Pnoy's trust and popularity ratings would reach a dangerously low level that it would incapacitate the President politically, and affect the chances of whoever political party Pnoy would support. The reading bombed.
UNA's initial plan when news of the fast decreasing popularity of the administration came, was assume a combative position. However, when this news failed to jell, or failed to affect the overall trust and perception of the population behind the administration, UNA's strategy began to fall apart.
The last punch came when UNA spokesperson former Congressman Atty. JV Bautista clarified in a statement that the UNA "shares the vision and agenda of this present administration,", that statement neutralized the UNA altogether.
How will the UNA now react on this latest pronouncement of the Liberal Party that it is now closed to a coalition with them?
Imagine this scenario of UNA candidates announcing their support for the President's agenda but is isolated and not among those formally coalesced with the LP? There is no more differentiation. Without differentiation, how then can voters know the difference between what UNA offers and what the LP-NP-NPC coalition stands for?
IN such a very confusing situation, the winnability of candidates of the UNA is placed under extreme doubt.
The senatorial race will now depend much on the candidates' own brand-name awareness and puts the political party, particularly UNA, as a liability rather than a plus in the campaign.
Meaning, with UNA, it is now entirely useless to join this political aggrupation simply because it isolated itself, by its own actions, from the administration.
There is nothing left for UNA but to sheepishly and probably quietly shift to the oppositive side, to the detriment of Presidential wannabe Jejomar Binay and all the rest of the relics of the alliance.
If UNA chooses now to don the "constructive oppositionist" route, it places the flow of funds to them in danger, since, everyone knows that this administration thinks along black and white lines, meaning, if you don't support it, you're a marked enemy.
Meaning, regardless of whatever political side the UNA finally decides to place its fate on, no huge amount of funds would ever flow to their side, since financiers would always fear of retribution coming from the administration.
Two things: when they realized that funds are not going their way and lastly, when they found themselves isolated politically. UNA misread the situation. They thought that Pnoy's trust and popularity ratings would reach a dangerously low level that it would incapacitate the President politically, and affect the chances of whoever political party Pnoy would support. The reading bombed.
UNA's initial plan when news of the fast decreasing popularity of the administration came, was assume a combative position. However, when this news failed to jell, or failed to affect the overall trust and perception of the population behind the administration, UNA's strategy began to fall apart.
The last punch came when UNA spokesperson former Congressman Atty. JV Bautista clarified in a statement that the UNA "shares the vision and agenda of this present administration,", that statement neutralized the UNA altogether.
How will the UNA now react on this latest pronouncement of the Liberal Party that it is now closed to a coalition with them?
Imagine this scenario of UNA candidates announcing their support for the President's agenda but is isolated and not among those formally coalesced with the LP? There is no more differentiation. Without differentiation, how then can voters know the difference between what UNA offers and what the LP-NP-NPC coalition stands for?
IN such a very confusing situation, the winnability of candidates of the UNA is placed under extreme doubt.
The senatorial race will now depend much on the candidates' own brand-name awareness and puts the political party, particularly UNA, as a liability rather than a plus in the campaign.
Meaning, with UNA, it is now entirely useless to join this political aggrupation simply because it isolated itself, by its own actions, from the administration.
There is nothing left for UNA but to sheepishly and probably quietly shift to the oppositive side, to the detriment of Presidential wannabe Jejomar Binay and all the rest of the relics of the alliance.
If UNA chooses now to don the "constructive oppositionist" route, it places the flow of funds to them in danger, since, everyone knows that this administration thinks along black and white lines, meaning, if you don't support it, you're a marked enemy.
Meaning, regardless of whatever political side the UNA finally decides to place its fate on, no huge amount of funds would ever flow to their side, since financiers would always fear of retribution coming from the administration.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Vice President Binay---next on the Aquino agenda?
Several sources have confirmed a plot to launch an attack against Vice President Jejomar Binay. The alleged anti-Binay plan has been hatched reportedly upon the suggestion of an influential member of the "Firm".
Malacanang, according to these people, are preparing a plan to urge Binay to open his own bank and dollar deposit accounts.
The plan is reportedly a response to the alleged plan of the Binay group to form their own and complete Senatorial slate come 2013. PDP-Laban, according to sources, has decided to field their own after getting some feedback from the Liberals that the administration party will be fielding a complete slate without any nominee from the PDP-Laban side.
Apart from the political reason, there is also a "business" side to the plot. Binay is reportedly not too keen on allowing Aquino's closest classmates and business partners to corner most of the "business" in government. Several people also confirmed that Binay is really not too keen on supporting Justice Antonio Carpio's ascension as Chief Justice once Corona's impeachment is affirmed by the Senate. Carpio, according to close Binay sources, is one of the GMA advisers who pushed for Binay's ouster as mayor of Makati.
Malacanang, according to these people, are preparing a plan to urge Binay to open his own bank and dollar deposit accounts.
The plan is reportedly a response to the alleged plan of the Binay group to form their own and complete Senatorial slate come 2013. PDP-Laban, according to sources, has decided to field their own after getting some feedback from the Liberals that the administration party will be fielding a complete slate without any nominee from the PDP-Laban side.
Apart from the political reason, there is also a "business" side to the plot. Binay is reportedly not too keen on allowing Aquino's closest classmates and business partners to corner most of the "business" in government. Several people also confirmed that Binay is really not too keen on supporting Justice Antonio Carpio's ascension as Chief Justice once Corona's impeachment is affirmed by the Senate. Carpio, according to close Binay sources, is one of the GMA advisers who pushed for Binay's ouster as mayor of Makati.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Who stands to gain from Corona Impeachment Trial?
Who really stands to gain from the Corona impeachment trial? If Corona is impeached, will real changes follow in the judiciary? What kind of changes are needed? Is this fight only about graft and corruption, and nothing else?
Until now, Malacanang has not given us any inkling as to the kind of reforms the President wants to do with the judiciary. Reforms are actually administrative matters which only the Chief Justice is allowed by the Constitution to do. The President said, this impeachment trial is part of a "cleansing process" which will benefit the Judicial department in the long run.
However, Malacanang is still clueless as to the specific changes it wants. It only knows one thing--oust Renato Corona as Chief Justice. Will the ouster of Corona put an end to graft and corruption in the judiciary?
I bet my Singdollar that this so-called "opening and public disclosure" of Corona's SALN will be the first and the last time a member of this institution will publicly disclose his SALN. After this trial drama, and Corona's impeached, every single thing will revert back to its original status. Money will still change hands in the judiciary. Money will still be the prime "influencer" in decisions rendered by the Courts. Why?
Any human-made institution is vulnerable to corruption. Even in modern countries, judges are also being corrupted and are corrupting the system too.
Moreso, this impeachment trial, when it began, has already harmed democracy in this country. Instead of real changes, democracy has been put under a very dangerous state.
If Corona's impeached, and the entire Supreme Court is changed by people close to the Palace, what then will this Court be like? It will just be a rubber stamp by a strong Chief Executive. The independence of this Court has been compromised.
The same thing will happen if Corona manages to stay---every single decision will be questioned ab infinitum by a Strong Chief Executive. Even decisions handled by law firms and lawyers who became part of Corona's defense panel will always be subject to doubt and scrutiny.
Malacanang is courting serious political problems when it did this. What happens for example, if the Supreme Court, who is now handling the electoral protest of palace close-in Mar Roxas, decides to issue a denial of this protest case? Will the Roxas camp just keep its silence and respect the decision of the Court who earlier accused him of conspiring to oust the Chief Justice?
Or, what will happen if the SC renders a favorable decision? Certainly, the Binay camp will accuse both the Palace and the Judiciary of conspiring against Binay or even Binay accusing the Palace of forcing itself before the Judiciary, hence, the unfavorable decision?
What happens now to pending cases which are political in nature?What happens now to cases where the government is a party? Even if the Supreme Court renders a decision entirely based on law, in the minds of the public, these decisions are tainted already.
A favorable or an unfavorable outcome in this impeachment trial is immaterial now. Corona's part in this this case has now been been rendered irrelevant. Corona has now dragged the entire institution into the pits.
Until now, Malacanang has not given us any inkling as to the kind of reforms the President wants to do with the judiciary. Reforms are actually administrative matters which only the Chief Justice is allowed by the Constitution to do. The President said, this impeachment trial is part of a "cleansing process" which will benefit the Judicial department in the long run.
However, Malacanang is still clueless as to the specific changes it wants. It only knows one thing--oust Renato Corona as Chief Justice. Will the ouster of Corona put an end to graft and corruption in the judiciary?
I bet my Singdollar that this so-called "opening and public disclosure" of Corona's SALN will be the first and the last time a member of this institution will publicly disclose his SALN. After this trial drama, and Corona's impeached, every single thing will revert back to its original status. Money will still change hands in the judiciary. Money will still be the prime "influencer" in decisions rendered by the Courts. Why?
Any human-made institution is vulnerable to corruption. Even in modern countries, judges are also being corrupted and are corrupting the system too.
Moreso, this impeachment trial, when it began, has already harmed democracy in this country. Instead of real changes, democracy has been put under a very dangerous state.
If Corona's impeached, and the entire Supreme Court is changed by people close to the Palace, what then will this Court be like? It will just be a rubber stamp by a strong Chief Executive. The independence of this Court has been compromised.
The same thing will happen if Corona manages to stay---every single decision will be questioned ab infinitum by a Strong Chief Executive. Even decisions handled by law firms and lawyers who became part of Corona's defense panel will always be subject to doubt and scrutiny.
Malacanang is courting serious political problems when it did this. What happens for example, if the Supreme Court, who is now handling the electoral protest of palace close-in Mar Roxas, decides to issue a denial of this protest case? Will the Roxas camp just keep its silence and respect the decision of the Court who earlier accused him of conspiring to oust the Chief Justice?
Or, what will happen if the SC renders a favorable decision? Certainly, the Binay camp will accuse both the Palace and the Judiciary of conspiring against Binay or even Binay accusing the Palace of forcing itself before the Judiciary, hence, the unfavorable decision?
What happens now to pending cases which are political in nature?What happens now to cases where the government is a party? Even if the Supreme Court renders a decision entirely based on law, in the minds of the public, these decisions are tainted already.
A favorable or an unfavorable outcome in this impeachment trial is immaterial now. Corona's part in this this case has now been been rendered irrelevant. Corona has now dragged the entire institution into the pits.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Binay for president? Senator Escudero a playboy?
Vice president Jojo Binay is a tad lower in approval ratings than Noy. Noy got 79% while Jojo, 78%. Curiously, Jojo has not been in the news lately, while Noy hugs the headlines and the inside pages of newspapers almost every single day.
In comparison, Binay is quietly doing his thing while Noy, well, continues to crusade on behalf of his erring Cabinet members, like DPWH Singson. Contrast their management styles, and you get the impression that Binay is silently building his strong mass base while Noy is left alone while his Cabinet members do the wrecking job.
Meaning, Binay's rating continues to remain extremely high because of what's he's doing exactly, not what he says he does in the media.
Politically, its bad for both to have the same strong public perception. Why? Because it leads some people to believe that either one can actually govern this country less of the other.
The perception is, this administration will not last just like Erap's. Which I think is just a misreading of the entire situation. This kind of news is probably propaganda, to prop up the possibility of a Binay presidency in case the SABLAI group continues its job of messing everything up for the President to clean.
These loose talk of the president having drinking sprees inside the palace, of him being a playboy (dating different women every single week) and of him drinking the night away while forgetting the affairs of the state, are all black propaganda meant to clearly picture a government in disarray.
And such news as the erroneous inclusion of Senator Honasan's name in the list of possible rebels out to plead for amnesty are just some of the errors which some people think prove their initial guesses---that the affairs of this government are being handled by lightweights out to have a grand time as high government functionaries.
Curiously though, even Senator Chiz Escudero is being accused right now of marital infidelity, either because he's gay or because he's a lothario. Loose talk says Escudero is shopping around, enjoying his new found power as the force behind Noy and engaging in endless drinking sprees with no less than the Executive secretary.
Of course, Escudero is simply not gay and he's not a lothario. Fact is, the good senator remains extremely loyal to his lovely wife.
These talks which are spreading like wildfire benefits two men: Binay and Senator Bongbong Marcos---two likely contenders for the presidency in 2016.
Marcos remains a very strong contender. His strong showing last elections prove that people still trust the Marcos brand name, despite years of mud slinging from activists and people victimized by the Marcos dictatorial regime. It would not be extremely difficult, people say, of another Marcos again occupying the same place his father abandoned several decades ago.
If elections are held today, and these two men face each other, the outcome is definitely certain: Marcos.
Marcos benefits from all of these faults and perceived disarray in government. The Marcos brandname exudes order. If the Aquino administration continues messing things around, this might justify a resuscitation of the public's animation towards order. That would set the tone for the 2016 elections and this will, extremely favor Bongbong.
In comparison, Binay is quietly doing his thing while Noy, well, continues to crusade on behalf of his erring Cabinet members, like DPWH Singson. Contrast their management styles, and you get the impression that Binay is silently building his strong mass base while Noy is left alone while his Cabinet members do the wrecking job.
Meaning, Binay's rating continues to remain extremely high because of what's he's doing exactly, not what he says he does in the media.
Politically, its bad for both to have the same strong public perception. Why? Because it leads some people to believe that either one can actually govern this country less of the other.
The perception is, this administration will not last just like Erap's. Which I think is just a misreading of the entire situation. This kind of news is probably propaganda, to prop up the possibility of a Binay presidency in case the SABLAI group continues its job of messing everything up for the President to clean.
These loose talk of the president having drinking sprees inside the palace, of him being a playboy (dating different women every single week) and of him drinking the night away while forgetting the affairs of the state, are all black propaganda meant to clearly picture a government in disarray.
And such news as the erroneous inclusion of Senator Honasan's name in the list of possible rebels out to plead for amnesty are just some of the errors which some people think prove their initial guesses---that the affairs of this government are being handled by lightweights out to have a grand time as high government functionaries.
Curiously though, even Senator Chiz Escudero is being accused right now of marital infidelity, either because he's gay or because he's a lothario. Loose talk says Escudero is shopping around, enjoying his new found power as the force behind Noy and engaging in endless drinking sprees with no less than the Executive secretary.
Of course, Escudero is simply not gay and he's not a lothario. Fact is, the good senator remains extremely loyal to his lovely wife.
These talks which are spreading like wildfire benefits two men: Binay and Senator Bongbong Marcos---two likely contenders for the presidency in 2016.
Marcos remains a very strong contender. His strong showing last elections prove that people still trust the Marcos brand name, despite years of mud slinging from activists and people victimized by the Marcos dictatorial regime. It would not be extremely difficult, people say, of another Marcos again occupying the same place his father abandoned several decades ago.
If elections are held today, and these two men face each other, the outcome is definitely certain: Marcos.
Marcos benefits from all of these faults and perceived disarray in government. The Marcos brandname exudes order. If the Aquino administration continues messing things around, this might justify a resuscitation of the public's animation towards order. That would set the tone for the 2016 elections and this will, extremely favor Bongbong.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Aquino's Cabinet picks
President Noynoy Aquino says his present communication group will replace the Office of the Press Secretary. Ricky Carandang, ANC anchorperson and a highly respected member of the Philippine media is being touted as the head of the communication group so therefore, Carandang is probably our new Press secretary.
Manolo Quezon is also said to be the inaugural spokesperson but it is unknown what post will the historian/blogger/columnist and TV host will get under the Aquino administration. His friends and colleagues over at the Black and White Movement have already been posted in several posts, foremost of which is Atty. Ed Lacierda who now will act as Presidential spokesperson. Leah Navarro, a leading light in the anti-Arroyo movement, is reportedly offered the Presidential Management Staff (PMS) post. Vic "Emong" Emano was Aquino's New Media head and Emong's fate is still unknown.
There are strong indications that the highly creative and effective Maria Montelibano of the Samar group will be appointed as head of the Philippine Information Agency (PIA). This is a promotion for Montelibano who was very effective in handling Aquino's propaganda machinery during the elections. Montelibano used to head Malacanang RTV during the time of Cory and once helped in crafting the Aquino communications plan.
Cesar Purisima, one of Aquino's contributors, is also certain to get the Trade portfolio (or even the Finance?) while Jesse Robredo of the Kaya Natin Movement and a long-time mayor of Naga City (Ramon Magsaysay awardee) will head the DILG, which is really the best pick for the job.
Robredo does not have any presidential ambitions so he will probably devote all of his time developing and enhancing the local government structure. This will be best for the country.
Dingky Soliman, as previously announced, will re-assume her DSWD post, while Teresita Deles, will be the administration's presidential peace adviser, a post which she is really accustomed to. Deles used to be the presidential anti-poverty commissioner under Arroyo.
Romulo is said to be among 4 contenders for the Foreign affairs post. A group composed of Liberal party members led by chairman emeritus Jovito Salonga is said to be campaigning for Hilario Davide, the Chief Justice popular for that very controversial decision legitimizing the administration of Arroyo.
Another critical post, the Department of Tourism has at least five names, including that of Jim Paredes of the APO Hiking Society and Andy Bautista, a highly respected name in the Tourism industry.
Noli de Castro, reports say, has been offered a post in the Aquino administration. He declined and said that he is coming back (with a vengeance) to broadcasting. Kudos to Kabayan!
Outgoing PMS chief Len Bautista-Horn says there are about 50,000 posts that would be left vacant come June 30, 10% of these are executive posts. Aquino and the search committee must be extremely cautious in effecting changes especially in the critical departments. As early as now, there are several reports which I got from highly placed sources saying that there are "long-time" operators angling for several posts in some agencies of government. The search committee must be very very circumspect in reviewing the records of these operators.
Vice president Jojo Binay really prefers the DILG posts for obvious reasons--he wants to institutionalize what he did in Makati. And one of those things he wants is simply institutionalize his reported penchant for condominium units. Rumours say that Binay reportedly ask for several condo units from developers in exchange for permits. How true?
There is a group, some coffee shop habitues say, that is gathering graft cases against Binay.
Manolo Quezon is also said to be the inaugural spokesperson but it is unknown what post will the historian/blogger/columnist and TV host will get under the Aquino administration. His friends and colleagues over at the Black and White Movement have already been posted in several posts, foremost of which is Atty. Ed Lacierda who now will act as Presidential spokesperson. Leah Navarro, a leading light in the anti-Arroyo movement, is reportedly offered the Presidential Management Staff (PMS) post. Vic "Emong" Emano was Aquino's New Media head and Emong's fate is still unknown.
There are strong indications that the highly creative and effective Maria Montelibano of the Samar group will be appointed as head of the Philippine Information Agency (PIA). This is a promotion for Montelibano who was very effective in handling Aquino's propaganda machinery during the elections. Montelibano used to head Malacanang RTV during the time of Cory and once helped in crafting the Aquino communications plan.
Cesar Purisima, one of Aquino's contributors, is also certain to get the Trade portfolio (or even the Finance?) while Jesse Robredo of the Kaya Natin Movement and a long-time mayor of Naga City (Ramon Magsaysay awardee) will head the DILG, which is really the best pick for the job.
Robredo does not have any presidential ambitions so he will probably devote all of his time developing and enhancing the local government structure. This will be best for the country.
Dingky Soliman, as previously announced, will re-assume her DSWD post, while Teresita Deles, will be the administration's presidential peace adviser, a post which she is really accustomed to. Deles used to be the presidential anti-poverty commissioner under Arroyo.
Romulo is said to be among 4 contenders for the Foreign affairs post. A group composed of Liberal party members led by chairman emeritus Jovito Salonga is said to be campaigning for Hilario Davide, the Chief Justice popular for that very controversial decision legitimizing the administration of Arroyo.
Another critical post, the Department of Tourism has at least five names, including that of Jim Paredes of the APO Hiking Society and Andy Bautista, a highly respected name in the Tourism industry.
Noli de Castro, reports say, has been offered a post in the Aquino administration. He declined and said that he is coming back (with a vengeance) to broadcasting. Kudos to Kabayan!
Outgoing PMS chief Len Bautista-Horn says there are about 50,000 posts that would be left vacant come June 30, 10% of these are executive posts. Aquino and the search committee must be extremely cautious in effecting changes especially in the critical departments. As early as now, there are several reports which I got from highly placed sources saying that there are "long-time" operators angling for several posts in some agencies of government. The search committee must be very very circumspect in reviewing the records of these operators.
Vice president Jojo Binay really prefers the DILG posts for obvious reasons--he wants to institutionalize what he did in Makati. And one of those things he wants is simply institutionalize his reported penchant for condominium units. Rumours say that Binay reportedly ask for several condo units from developers in exchange for permits. How true?
There is a group, some coffee shop habitues say, that is gathering graft cases against Binay.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Binay as DILG sec, Ochoa as AFP Chief of Staff?
Congress had final count---Aquino for President and Binay for Vice President. Aquino led other contenders with a wide margin of 5 million, while Binay led Mar Roxas with a mere 700,000 votes. In Aquino's case, it was quite evident that the Liberal party camp acted as a united front, with voters who really believed in their cause, probably voted both Aquino and Mar. The effort, however, just fell somewhat shorter.
The final tally shows that there was really nothing going on between those who campaigned for both and those who only campaigned for Aquino and never Roxas. It did not matter. They don't really count that much during the elections.
In the case of Binay's party, definitely, there was something terribly wrong with what happened. Imagine, Binay got 13 million votes and his standard bearer Joseph Estrada got a little tad higher than 9 million or a difference of 4 million. It seems that Binay really stabbed Erap in the back. If Binay did it to an old friend, what more with Aquino?
With Binay as vice president and wanting the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) post, I fear that this will create destabilization and animosity within the new government.
Putting Binay at the DILG post will surely be destabilizing. All Binay will do there is simply prepare the way for his campaign for the presidential post come 2016. Or, use the agency to take revenge against his political enemies and make it as a vehicle for pressuring others to support him. Binay wants to be a Ronnie Puno. Aquino must realize this quick and avoid this from happening.
Binay should be put where he truly belongs---as Boy Scout of the Philippines head and maybe designate him as one of the commissioners of Human Rights, not appoint him in any line agency.
By the way, to resolve the Bangit dilemma, there are two senior officers who definitely deserves the post of AFP Chief of Staff.
Since generals Marayag and Rodrigo Maclang are set to retire by today, sources said Lt. General Nestor Ochoa, presently assigned at the National Development Support Command and Rear Admiral Mario Catacutan, AFP deputy chief for logistics are fit and ready to serve under the Aquino administration.
I've checked these two officers and they don't have any taint of corruption in them. They are professional soldiers. They enjoy the respect of the troops. Either one can be a very good replacement with outgoing AFP Chief of Staff General Bangit. Both are members of PMA Class 1977.
If retired Lt. General Voltaire Gazmin will succeed Norberto Gonzales as Defense secretary, then, he will definitely work well together with either of the two gentlemen. Gazmin is being asked by Aquino to serve under him in the defense portfolio.
Other prospective appointments are:
1. DSWD-- Dingky Soliman
2. Presidential adviser on the peace process Teresita Deles
3. Executive secretary Pocholo Ochoa
4. Trade and Industry secretary Bertie Lim
5. Department of Agriculture (one of the undersecretaries there)
6. Foreign Affairs--Alberto Romulo
7. Education portfolio--a fight among Abad and two others
8. Defense---Lt. General Voltaire Gazmin
9. Finance---Cesar Purisima
10. DOTC---a high executive close to Aquino and Ateneo graduate. Secret.:-)
11. DOJ---a fight between an old name and a new one. The new one is a highly respected young lawyer.
12. Press secretary---hopefully Maria Montelibano
13. DOT---an old marketing lady who is involved in the tourism industry for quite a long time now.
14. CUSTOMS--a retired military who hates corruption.
15. IMMIGRATION---a young lawyer from Ateneo
16. BIR---a young lawyer from private practice.
The final tally shows that there was really nothing going on between those who campaigned for both and those who only campaigned for Aquino and never Roxas. It did not matter. They don't really count that much during the elections.
In the case of Binay's party, definitely, there was something terribly wrong with what happened. Imagine, Binay got 13 million votes and his standard bearer Joseph Estrada got a little tad higher than 9 million or a difference of 4 million. It seems that Binay really stabbed Erap in the back. If Binay did it to an old friend, what more with Aquino?
With Binay as vice president and wanting the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) post, I fear that this will create destabilization and animosity within the new government.
Putting Binay at the DILG post will surely be destabilizing. All Binay will do there is simply prepare the way for his campaign for the presidential post come 2016. Or, use the agency to take revenge against his political enemies and make it as a vehicle for pressuring others to support him. Binay wants to be a Ronnie Puno. Aquino must realize this quick and avoid this from happening.
Binay should be put where he truly belongs---as Boy Scout of the Philippines head and maybe designate him as one of the commissioners of Human Rights, not appoint him in any line agency.
By the way, to resolve the Bangit dilemma, there are two senior officers who definitely deserves the post of AFP Chief of Staff.
Since generals Marayag and Rodrigo Maclang are set to retire by today, sources said Lt. General Nestor Ochoa, presently assigned at the National Development Support Command and Rear Admiral Mario Catacutan, AFP deputy chief for logistics are fit and ready to serve under the Aquino administration.
I've checked these two officers and they don't have any taint of corruption in them. They are professional soldiers. They enjoy the respect of the troops. Either one can be a very good replacement with outgoing AFP Chief of Staff General Bangit. Both are members of PMA Class 1977.
If retired Lt. General Voltaire Gazmin will succeed Norberto Gonzales as Defense secretary, then, he will definitely work well together with either of the two gentlemen. Gazmin is being asked by Aquino to serve under him in the defense portfolio.
Other prospective appointments are:
1. DSWD-- Dingky Soliman
2. Presidential adviser on the peace process Teresita Deles
3. Executive secretary Pocholo Ochoa
4. Trade and Industry secretary Bertie Lim
5. Department of Agriculture (one of the undersecretaries there)
6. Foreign Affairs--Alberto Romulo
7. Education portfolio--a fight among Abad and two others
8. Defense---Lt. General Voltaire Gazmin
9. Finance---Cesar Purisima
10. DOTC---a high executive close to Aquino and Ateneo graduate. Secret.:-)
11. DOJ---a fight between an old name and a new one. The new one is a highly respected young lawyer.
12. Press secretary---hopefully Maria Montelibano
13. DOT---an old marketing lady who is involved in the tourism industry for quite a long time now.
14. CUSTOMS--a retired military who hates corruption.
15. IMMIGRATION---a young lawyer from Ateneo
16. BIR---a young lawyer from private practice.
Monday, June 7, 2010
New Philippine president to be proclaimed by Wednesday: Roxas loses vote for counting null votes
The joint Congressional Canvassing Committee chaired by Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile and Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. have just rendered a decision, denying the motion of the camp of Vice Presidential candidate Mar Roxas for the committee to re-examine the null votes in the last polls. The lawyer of Roxas cited the unusual number of null or "stray" votes, which stands at 3 million, as basis for his motion. Joey Tenafrancia, counsel of Roxas, maintains the position that these stray votes should be examined since allegations of electoral fraud cropped up. There is a possibility that these votes were actually cast in favor of Roxas.
On the part of the Binay camp, Sandra Coronel correctly pointed out that the motions filed by the Roxas camp are clearly misplaced, since the proper venue for such "allegations" should not be filed before the committee; rather, the proper venue should be the Presidential Electoral Tribunal. Likewise, it is an elementary principle in election law, that straw or null votes are not to be counted. Questions should definitely be addressed before the proper venue, not before the canvassing committee.
With that, ends, I think, the attempts of the Roxas camp to use the canvassing committee as venue to ventilate their "observations" on the last polls. With their motions denied, the only recourse left is for the party to file their corresponding protest actions before the presidential tribunal. If they plan to do so, then, this will allow the canvassing committee to finally proclaim the winning presidential and vice presidential candidates by Wednesday.
Now, will we see the last of Mar Roxas? I clearly doubt it. With Noynoy and the Liberals in power, Roxas has the chance to be the country's kingmaker, acting and moving silently above the political waters.
Roxas has a bright future ahead of him. His loss will not deter him from seeking a higher position six years from now, unlike Senator Loren Legarda, who, I think, should throw in the towel and accept the people's mandate that she will definitely not be president nor vice president even by 2016.
If we assess the current political situation, Roxas still has three more years to go before the mid-term elections of 2013. 2013 is most crucial for Roxas and Escudero for that matter, and even Binay, who remains as a political darkhorse come 2016.
Fact is, it may even be beneficial for Roxas to lose this elections and win by 2016. Let me state my analysis.
If Roxas concedes the fight tomorrow, he will have at least a year to map out his political future for the next three to six years. One of the things he needs to do is review what went wrong and correct it as soon as possible.
I think he needs to revamp his campaign team and try to form a team that will truly propel him to electoral victory come 2016.
This 2010 elections just shows you that there's nothing more important than grassroots organization if winning the polls is concerned. Roxas should concentrate on that.
Fact is, if Roxas intends to win by 2016, he must probably get the DILG portfolio. Roxas should not be given the DTI post again.
Binay won this elections because of the enormous grassroots organization he successfully established through the years. I do not believe that he cheated. I do not believe that there was electronic Garci that happened in the national level, simply on account that it would entail a humongous logistical operation that will definitely exceed his expenses without a clear result.
Roxas should also ensure that Escudero loses the 2013 re-election bid, to neutralize him for the presidential polls come 2016. There are only three contenders for the presidency strong enough to clinch a win: Roxas, Binay and Escudero. Villar, it seems, is simply not cut out for the presidency.
He must be very careful in his next steps because that will determine his winnability come 2016.
Now, on Binay's win...
Clearly, this establishes Binay as the successor of former president Joseph Estrada. His win just shows that he already controls and commands respect over the large organization that Estrada had established throughout his career. With Estrada's eventual retirement from politics, it is now clear that Binay is the "big boss" so to speak. He now stands to replicate the path which Estrada took in 1998.
The only question is---how strong his relations with the Escudero camp is and how significant will his role be in the Aquino administration.
Estrada was given a pro-active role in the Ramos administration, paving the way for him to build his campaign organization. Even as Vice president, Estrada was given the title "anti-crime czar", which gave him enormous powers and a huge budget.
Now, it is not clear what role Binay will serve under the Aquino administration. Surely, Noynoy will not give him the DILG portfolio, because if he does, then, it shows that he favors Binay over his bosom buddy, Mar Roxas. The DILG portfolio is crucial.
That remains a very serious problem for Binay. He could be put in a freezer and given crumbs. Or he can use his Cojuangco connections and lobby for an important role in the Aquino administration. His enemies will try to marginalize him.
On the part of the Binay camp, Sandra Coronel correctly pointed out that the motions filed by the Roxas camp are clearly misplaced, since the proper venue for such "allegations" should not be filed before the committee; rather, the proper venue should be the Presidential Electoral Tribunal. Likewise, it is an elementary principle in election law, that straw or null votes are not to be counted. Questions should definitely be addressed before the proper venue, not before the canvassing committee.
With that, ends, I think, the attempts of the Roxas camp to use the canvassing committee as venue to ventilate their "observations" on the last polls. With their motions denied, the only recourse left is for the party to file their corresponding protest actions before the presidential tribunal. If they plan to do so, then, this will allow the canvassing committee to finally proclaim the winning presidential and vice presidential candidates by Wednesday.
Now, will we see the last of Mar Roxas? I clearly doubt it. With Noynoy and the Liberals in power, Roxas has the chance to be the country's kingmaker, acting and moving silently above the political waters.
Roxas has a bright future ahead of him. His loss will not deter him from seeking a higher position six years from now, unlike Senator Loren Legarda, who, I think, should throw in the towel and accept the people's mandate that she will definitely not be president nor vice president even by 2016.
If we assess the current political situation, Roxas still has three more years to go before the mid-term elections of 2013. 2013 is most crucial for Roxas and Escudero for that matter, and even Binay, who remains as a political darkhorse come 2016.
Fact is, it may even be beneficial for Roxas to lose this elections and win by 2016. Let me state my analysis.
If Roxas concedes the fight tomorrow, he will have at least a year to map out his political future for the next three to six years. One of the things he needs to do is review what went wrong and correct it as soon as possible.
I think he needs to revamp his campaign team and try to form a team that will truly propel him to electoral victory come 2016.
This 2010 elections just shows you that there's nothing more important than grassroots organization if winning the polls is concerned. Roxas should concentrate on that.
Fact is, if Roxas intends to win by 2016, he must probably get the DILG portfolio. Roxas should not be given the DTI post again.
Binay won this elections because of the enormous grassroots organization he successfully established through the years. I do not believe that he cheated. I do not believe that there was electronic Garci that happened in the national level, simply on account that it would entail a humongous logistical operation that will definitely exceed his expenses without a clear result.
Roxas should also ensure that Escudero loses the 2013 re-election bid, to neutralize him for the presidential polls come 2016. There are only three contenders for the presidency strong enough to clinch a win: Roxas, Binay and Escudero. Villar, it seems, is simply not cut out for the presidency.
He must be very careful in his next steps because that will determine his winnability come 2016.
Now, on Binay's win...
Clearly, this establishes Binay as the successor of former president Joseph Estrada. His win just shows that he already controls and commands respect over the large organization that Estrada had established throughout his career. With Estrada's eventual retirement from politics, it is now clear that Binay is the "big boss" so to speak. He now stands to replicate the path which Estrada took in 1998.
The only question is---how strong his relations with the Escudero camp is and how significant will his role be in the Aquino administration.
Estrada was given a pro-active role in the Ramos administration, paving the way for him to build his campaign organization. Even as Vice president, Estrada was given the title "anti-crime czar", which gave him enormous powers and a huge budget.
Now, it is not clear what role Binay will serve under the Aquino administration. Surely, Noynoy will not give him the DILG portfolio, because if he does, then, it shows that he favors Binay over his bosom buddy, Mar Roxas. The DILG portfolio is crucial.
That remains a very serious problem for Binay. He could be put in a freezer and given crumbs. Or he can use his Cojuangco connections and lobby for an important role in the Aquino administration. His enemies will try to marginalize him.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Mr. Palengke's predicament and 14 million Filipino voters who failed to vote
Only 73% of the total registered number of Filipino voters were able to actually cast their votes last May 10. Those 27% or 13.7 million voters were either disfranchised, were'nt able to go to the precincts due to work, or, as reports say, a million to five million of them were victims of a new scheme---preventing voters from going to their assigned seats in the actual day of the elections.
Comelec previously said, they expect between 80 to 85% of the voters to cast their votes. In the day of the elections itself, 27% of the people failed to cast their votes. In real terms, that is nearly 13.7 Million voters, more than the 800,000 lead margin of Jejomar Binay against Mar and could probably upset Aquino's lead over Estrada. Aquino's lead is between 5 to 6 million. What if these 14 million disfranchised voters went against Aquino and majority of them voted Estrada and/or Villar?
Even a fraction of this 13.7 milliion could change the political fortunes of Mar Roxas and Jejomar Binay.
It could also probably affect the tenth to the thirteenth standing in the Senatorial race. What is the probability of the people really not voting for Lapid? High, since there is a probability that these 13.7 million Filipinos are celebrity haters or not as jaded as those who voted for Bong Revilla or Leon Guerrero.
The one person with an enormous problem is Mar Roxas. If he loses the count to Binay, for concrete reasons of fraud, how then will he contest this? By going to Congress on May 27 and file protests? If there was fraud, it is like admitting to former president Joseph Estrada's charge that there was indeed, "electronic Garci" and " irregularities in the PCOS machines". How will this affect his buddy, Senator Benigno Aquino III, who leads Estrada not just by a mile, but by almost 5 million.
And when the Comelec admits that 700 PCOS machines faltered, that's about 140,000 "spoiled" votes? That would change the political fortunes not just of the mayors, governors, Congressmen, but even Senators and the Vice President?
How will the elites resolve this contentious issue between Roxas and Binay? I say, let Roxas win. Binay, anyway, still has his Makati turf. If Mar loses, he'll be a bigger problem than Binay.
It could have been very different if Aquino was trailing Estrada, the elites would have raised hell (not just a howl). The system was probably designed to favor Aquino and damn the others, says my favorite barber. Anyway, was it just Aquino who said that another EDSA was in the offing if people cheat him?
Next time, if Villar runs again for President, he should be intelligent enough and say that he'll go to the streets if cheated. Had he did so, Villar could have been at second place. Or, even at first.
By the way...
I am sorry to presume that the 13th and the 14th slots in the ongoing Senate count could still become members of the chamber. According to Atty. Harry Roque, only 12 winners will be included in the present number of 2013 term Senators. To complete the slate, the Senate has to announce a special election for the purpose of electing additional members of the Upper House. This can be done in the forthcoming barangay elections in October.
Comelec previously said, they expect between 80 to 85% of the voters to cast their votes. In the day of the elections itself, 27% of the people failed to cast their votes. In real terms, that is nearly 13.7 Million voters, more than the 800,000 lead margin of Jejomar Binay against Mar and could probably upset Aquino's lead over Estrada. Aquino's lead is between 5 to 6 million. What if these 14 million disfranchised voters went against Aquino and majority of them voted Estrada and/or Villar?
Even a fraction of this 13.7 milliion could change the political fortunes of Mar Roxas and Jejomar Binay.
It could also probably affect the tenth to the thirteenth standing in the Senatorial race. What is the probability of the people really not voting for Lapid? High, since there is a probability that these 13.7 million Filipinos are celebrity haters or not as jaded as those who voted for Bong Revilla or Leon Guerrero.
The one person with an enormous problem is Mar Roxas. If he loses the count to Binay, for concrete reasons of fraud, how then will he contest this? By going to Congress on May 27 and file protests? If there was fraud, it is like admitting to former president Joseph Estrada's charge that there was indeed, "electronic Garci" and " irregularities in the PCOS machines". How will this affect his buddy, Senator Benigno Aquino III, who leads Estrada not just by a mile, but by almost 5 million.
And when the Comelec admits that 700 PCOS machines faltered, that's about 140,000 "spoiled" votes? That would change the political fortunes not just of the mayors, governors, Congressmen, but even Senators and the Vice President?
How will the elites resolve this contentious issue between Roxas and Binay? I say, let Roxas win. Binay, anyway, still has his Makati turf. If Mar loses, he'll be a bigger problem than Binay.
It could have been very different if Aquino was trailing Estrada, the elites would have raised hell (not just a howl). The system was probably designed to favor Aquino and damn the others, says my favorite barber. Anyway, was it just Aquino who said that another EDSA was in the offing if people cheat him?
Next time, if Villar runs again for President, he should be intelligent enough and say that he'll go to the streets if cheated. Had he did so, Villar could have been at second place. Or, even at first.
By the way...
I am sorry to presume that the 13th and the 14th slots in the ongoing Senate count could still become members of the chamber. According to Atty. Harry Roque, only 12 winners will be included in the present number of 2013 term Senators. To complete the slate, the Senate has to announce a special election for the purpose of electing additional members of the Upper House. This can be done in the forthcoming barangay elections in October.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Jejomar Binay and his mistress--a non-issue? C'mon Mr. B!
When Jejomar Binay's photos with his alleged paramour surfaced, the vice presidential bet just quickly shrugged it off and accused media of sensationalizing a "non-political issue". The mayor dictator of Makati for two decades admitted his infidelity and tried to brush off the issue by saying that it's in the past and for media to "dignify" a "black propaganda" smacks of "tabloid-ism". And Binay said it to respected ABS-CBN journalist Henry Omaga-Diaz.
Is it really "tabloid" material for us, Filipino journalists? Let me elucidate it for Mr. Mayor Binay, who is now running for the second highest post of the land.
As a resident of Makati, I have the right to know if this woman mistress of yours even dabbled in Makati politics and projects for the past two decades. I have the right to know if she influenced your decisions and the biddings for projects in the City of Makati.
We don't care if you spent years with her, went to Australia and other cities around the world with this woman--that is not the point.
The point we want to know is--DID SHE OR DID SHE NOT INFLUENCED YOU IN YOUR DECISION TO GRANT CONCESSIONS TO SOME GROUPS IN MAKATI AT THE EXPENSE OF OUR TAX MONEY? Was your mind clouded by her beauty in the past?
Was she your "dummy" or did you use her to probably siphon off some of the largesse you amassed as mayor-dictator of Makati, as some alleged? Some politicians do it as a way to reportedly "hide" their "take" in some "illegal ventures".
I hope this did not happen to Mr. Binay because it affects us, voters of Makati. Surely, this shows you what kind of leader Mr. Binay is.
And since Mr. Binay has been forthwith with us, will you then reveal or admit to us Mr. Binay how much money you spent with her? If what you spent with her exceeds your annual income as a mayor, then, where did you get all those monies in support of your young PYT?
Voters have the right to know what kind of morality will you be bringing to the office of the Vice President of the Republic of the Philippines. Moreso, we voters have the right to know whether you'll succumb to the wiles or temptations of the office, as what you did when you reign in Makati for two decades.
The Palace is full of temptations. Every Tom, Dick and Harry with their multi-million peso contracts will try to approach you and tempt you Mr. Binay not just with untold riches, but with beautiful women of all kinds and sizes.
With his admission, Mr. Binay has just shown us what kind of governance he'll bring to the Ofice of the VP. Expect corruption to rise my beloved countrymen if Binay is elected into office.
This is not black propaganda Mr. Binay---this just shows how weak you are as a husband, as a person and as a leader. Are we just shrugging this off, my fellow Filipinos and just say that every single married guy undergoes the same thing as what Binay wanted us to believe?
C'mon, Binay is not an ordinary guy. He's the mayor of the most prosperous city in the Philippines and now asking for our support to become our Vice President. We are sick and tired of all these kinds of politicians asking us to forgive them of their infidelities when these same acts are already signs given to us by GOD that they are not really fit to serve us.
Is it really "tabloid" material for us, Filipino journalists? Let me elucidate it for Mr. Mayor Binay, who is now running for the second highest post of the land.
As a resident of Makati, I have the right to know if this woman mistress of yours even dabbled in Makati politics and projects for the past two decades. I have the right to know if she influenced your decisions and the biddings for projects in the City of Makati.
We don't care if you spent years with her, went to Australia and other cities around the world with this woman--that is not the point.
The point we want to know is--DID SHE OR DID SHE NOT INFLUENCED YOU IN YOUR DECISION TO GRANT CONCESSIONS TO SOME GROUPS IN MAKATI AT THE EXPENSE OF OUR TAX MONEY? Was your mind clouded by her beauty in the past?
Was she your "dummy" or did you use her to probably siphon off some of the largesse you amassed as mayor-dictator of Makati, as some alleged? Some politicians do it as a way to reportedly "hide" their "take" in some "illegal ventures".
I hope this did not happen to Mr. Binay because it affects us, voters of Makati. Surely, this shows you what kind of leader Mr. Binay is.
And since Mr. Binay has been forthwith with us, will you then reveal or admit to us Mr. Binay how much money you spent with her? If what you spent with her exceeds your annual income as a mayor, then, where did you get all those monies in support of your young PYT?
Voters have the right to know what kind of morality will you be bringing to the office of the Vice President of the Republic of the Philippines. Moreso, we voters have the right to know whether you'll succumb to the wiles or temptations of the office, as what you did when you reign in Makati for two decades.
The Palace is full of temptations. Every Tom, Dick and Harry with their multi-million peso contracts will try to approach you and tempt you Mr. Binay not just with untold riches, but with beautiful women of all kinds and sizes.
With his admission, Mr. Binay has just shown us what kind of governance he'll bring to the Ofice of the VP. Expect corruption to rise my beloved countrymen if Binay is elected into office.
This is not black propaganda Mr. Binay---this just shows how weak you are as a husband, as a person and as a leader. Are we just shrugging this off, my fellow Filipinos and just say that every single married guy undergoes the same thing as what Binay wanted us to believe?
C'mon, Binay is not an ordinary guy. He's the mayor of the most prosperous city in the Philippines and now asking for our support to become our Vice President. We are sick and tired of all these kinds of politicians asking us to forgive them of their infidelities when these same acts are already signs given to us by GOD that they are not really fit to serve us.
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