Thursday, August 19, 2010

October Challenge to the Pnoy Administration

Several uniformed officers in the know says, some military officers are preparing for a showdown. What is it is not defined. The scenario, they say, is several or even one or two months away. They described it as an October beer challenge. I described it as stupidity.

For one, there is no rationality behind these alleged grumblings in the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Those who probably grumble are those feeling that the "glory days are over", or those who have enjoyed the trappings of power before, only to lose it just because their backer has left the building, so to speak.

If you closely analyze things though, there is, however, a pattern that you can discern.

First, Pampanga Congresswoman Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the backer of a particular AFP class, has filed another bill, seeking to amend the Constitution of the Philippines purposely to allow the partition of Mindanao. MIndanao, as you know, is a flashpoint. Several rebel groups have been operating in the area for several decades now, fighting for an independent republic. The former government has acceded and in fact, was on the verge of signing a Memorandum of Agreement with the MILF for the recognition of their lands as ancestral domains. THis MOA-AD could have officially ended the internecine strife.Several groups, including those from the Ilonggo block of former Senator Mar Roxas blocked the MOA-AD signing.

The bill exploits this issue. The bill, as several observers say, is actually charter change. Arroyo is still hell bent in her desire to change the constitution to allow her to ascend the post of Prime Minister.

With the PR-initiated "military grumblings" now slowly transforming itself from an inside page story to headline, it pays to analyze that these grumblings and legal maneuverings are part of a bigger conspiracy to probably topple this administration. The only question is---is the times ripe for a challenge to the prevailing order?


The political capital enjoyed by the present administration is still very much felt by all. There is no legal reason for a coup. First off, the new administration has not erred in most of its decisions. Second, there is no legitimate group within the military establishment credible enough to stand up and say that there is merit to a coup. Lastly, there will be widespread opposition to a coup. The People have spoken and have recognized the legitimacy of this administration.

IF, and I say IF these anti-Pnoy plotters are really hell-bent on what they want to do, and they are really determined to act and move, then, what they are planning to do is something of a naked lust for power. Even if they succeed in this weakest point for this administration, they will not be able to sustain their administration since many will definitely oppose it in a mistaken belief that they only did so out of personal interests, not of the wider and more credible, public interest.

And those who plan to change the charter, has one thing going against them--the widespread support of the people behind the legitimate government. If this government succeeds in its mandate of improving services for the people, then, there is no just cause for a chater change. There is no ideological leg for a regime change to stand on.

By the way, where in hell is former defense secretary Norberto Gonzales?