GRP-MILF peace talks affected by Middle East conflicts?

Suluanos woke up today with the sounds and rumblings of bombs being dropped unto their lands. The military attacked a small island believed to be the headquarters of a handful of Abu Sayyaf fighters led by a certain Khair Munos. Munos is wanted by the United States. The attack came after two explosions rocked the town of Jolo, killing three people and wounding several others.


In the mainland Mindanao, peace negotiations came to a sudden halt, shortly after the public admission of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leadership that several of its ground commanders have severed their ties with the Central Committee. This admission was entirely not surprising since as early as 2008, several sources have already revealed a split among the MILF ranks. The split came shortly after the rejection of the Memorandum on Agreement on Ancestral domain. Many of the MILF ground commanders refused to abide by the decision of the MILF central leadership, saying that the solution to the Mindanao problem is solvable through jihad, not by a peace pact with the Philippine government.


Fact is, former US ambassador to the Philippines Kristie Kenney knows that the MILF leadership will be hard-put in implementing a peace agreement, since most of the fighters and ground commanders of the insurgency group want nothing but armed struggle to resolve the centuries-old problems in Mindanao.


MILF fighters have been made to believe that the term "Bangsamoro" refers to a separate identity, far from the colonized term "Filipino". Many MILF supporters agree with other several groups in Mindanao, that they are not Filipinos, but Bangsamoros. 


Now, with the turmoil breaking out in the Arab world, and several governments supportive of the MILF cause encountering insurgency problems themselves, it is rational to believe that the MILF fighters will turn East-ward in their quest to fund their force.Or, they will gravitate to Al-Qaeda, a multi-national organisation desirous to see the establishment of a pure Islamic state in the region.


What is certain is that the current "people's revolts" breaking out in different parts of the Arab world will also infect Muslim states in Asia--eventually. When this happens, this will strengthen Islamic insurgencies and once again, enflame state and regional conflicts.


Many now know that there is an intellectual re-awakening in the Islamic world. Many believe in these region-wide series of revolts against regimes and traditional power centers. Muslims are slowly uniting and recognizing the strength of unifying behind the Banner of Allah (SWT). 


Of course, this realization began a decade ago, when Usama bin Laden called on the Islamic world to militate or struggle against their despotic governments being supported by Western powers. This militation, as theorized, would lead to the installation of Caliphates, pure Islamic states that upholds the purity of the Shari'a. 


For the two states that fell, there was no real supplantation of traditional powers, since power just rested among the traditional elites. In Tunisia, the dictatorship ended yet power did not revert back to the people. Power was again taken by a handful of elites linked with the previous dispensation. This is also what happened in Egypt, where the military took over. And surely, this is an unlikely outcome in Libya, where rebel forces continue to fight the forces of Khaddafy.


Yemeni opposition forces are still weak, same goes to those protesting in Bahrain. Protesters are not your traditional fundamentalists, but ordinary townsfolk hard pressed by rising prices and joblessness. 


Meanwhile, the Saudi monarchy has chosen to shower the people with economic "blessings" to keep them "toeing the line." Analysts however, fear that the radicalization of the region poses a direct threat to the authorities of the Arab state. There is always an active movement in the underbelly of Saudi society, and it is always inspired by Islamic values and principles. Many believe that it is only a matter of time before radicalization reaches the shores of Islam's center of religious authority.


Now, what is happening is not just purely a militation against dictatorships nor of poverty. There is some mixture of religious belief infused in it. There is a renewal of the Arab Muslim's strong belief in Islamic ways and means. The erosion of traditional Islamic values in the fast-growing capitalist states is always a subject of simple talk among Arabs. This is coupled by the realization that there is no enjoyment of the primary rights being enjoyed by other nationalities. Freedom, therefore, is equated with Islamic religious beliefs.


Without freedom to express themselves and seeing the erosion of Islamic ways and means in their own societies, led even the least radical elements of Arab society to take to the streets and protests against their governments. The failure of these governments to stem the tide of corruption and equalize economic gains and benefits plus the slow descent of morality in these states fueled this region-wide revolts. 


Aside from economic demands, Muslims are demanding for the supplantation of power believed to have caused the fast descent of Islamic societies into morality and decay. People perceived that these governments tolerated corruption and immorality, as natural consequences of adhering to capitalism.