Trends in 2013 election year in the Philippines

2013 is a political year, a time when compromises are expected and principles left in the backburner. The conduct of next year's elections would depend largely on the interests of election funders or financiers, those whose work depends on government transactions. Most financiers I know, are interested on expanding their influence in underdeveloped areas. Others are pushing for interests of specific industries. Nonetheless, as I said, the election year will not be dictated by public interests but by big corporate interests.

Of course, the familiar names in politics will emerge winners in an ever Republican supporting electorate. 2010 was supposed to be a year when people consider personalities esposuing for change. Now, the "change rhetoric"  is not as hot as before, and surely, the Filipio electorate will again, revert to its previous character, which, by its very nature, is pro-Establishment.

Those who symbolized the call for change will have a shock of their lives--the electorate will abandon them and relegate them to the sidelines. Big names in the change business will encounter a hard climb due to financial difficulties and of course, loss of public trust. One probable victim is Senator Trillianes IV whose name was dragged into a very humiliating controversy. It will be extremely hard for Trillianes to muster enough votes unlike what happened to him several years ago. His famed grassroots machinery have splintered into different groups with differing interests and motivations.

Several names in the top survey lists will also suffer from apathy from a more intelligent electorate come next year.

The use of social media will not affect the final outcome of the vote which will still be largely a product or a result of traditional grassroots campaigning. Those who hold a big influence with federations, unions, NGO's and PO's, whose organizing work in the countrysides and even in urban areas have reached phenomenal growth, will be victorious. Funds will of course, be channelled to media. Those whose war chests are not as plenty as others will find themselves losing the battle. Media wars will escalate. However, the way to go is not simply inundate the public sphere with ads (such as the debacle of Manny Villar in the last 2010 elections), but names will be highlighted if political personalities will espouse issues relating to economics and peace and order.