Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Who would win as President come 2016 in Philippines: 5 Sure-Fire ways of determining who

Many people have asked me--who do you think would win in 2016? There is a simple formula for this. The formula is:

1. Eliminate those who served the six year term of President Aquino
2. Eliminate those names tagged in the PDAF scandal
3. Eliminate those who sit in critical and highly sensitive government posts
4. Eliminate those who figured in major non-political scandals
5. Eliminate those who figured prominently in political scandals
6. Eliminate those who say they are running for president or vice president

Review Philippine history and you'll assume the following to be true:

1. Those who expressed their desire to become president in the post-Marcos regime early on, all lost their bids.

examples: Ramon Mitra Sr, Jovito Salonga, Jose de Venecia Jr., Renato de Villa, Manny Villar

2. Those who won the presidential slot are those unexpected or were considered "dark horses" (without alluding to skin color) prior to the elections

examples: Fidel V. Ramos, Benigno S. Aquino III

3. Those who won the presidency kept their cards close to their chests and just did their work when they were given Cabinet posts and never mentioned that they were running.

examples: Fidel V. Ramos, Gloria Arroyo, Joseph "Erap" Estrada Jr.

4. Those who figured prominently in surveys are normally the ones who lose in the end

examples: Manny Villar, Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero

5. Pre-Marcos era, those who won the presidency did it through the traditional route. In post-Marcos era, those who commanded a strong grassroots network usually wins the election, without really going thru the traditional route (Mayor-Senator-Vice President-President)

examples: Vice President Jejomar Binay, Benigno S. Aquino III, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo

So, what is the winning formula for a wannabe President come 2016?

  1. 1. If you're sure of running, be visible in the grassroots, not in a national arena. The more public your announcement becomes, the less likely you"ll get the Presidency.
  2. Work with people's organizations. The secret in winning the elections is thru the strength of your own constituency.
  3. Weave a mythology around you. Instead of political organizers, create an army of storytellers. 

Okey, so who among those who expressed their "intentions" stand to get the top plum? Let's list one by one.

  • Vice President Jejomar Binay---the only way possible for Binay to clinch the presidency is thru unconstitutional means. Binay's chances of winning the elections is slim. Many people are beginning to hate his guts.
  • DILG secretary Mar Roxas---those images of him involved in the Typhoon Yolanda relief ops plus the antics of Korina further damaged his image. He is beginning to get farther and farther away. If Roxas fights Binay today, there is no contest. 
  • Senator Alan Peter Cayetano---well, how can I put it? Cayetano is a master weaver of words, and can be considered as one of our most eloquent legal speakers who tells it like it is, and shares information with substance. However, he looks like a haciendero and millions of rural-based workers remember their landlords whenever he gives an interview over TV.  I think Cayetano deserves the second top spot and no more.
  • Grace Poe---top gun in the 2010 elections which is still one of the most debatable and the most controversial elections in Philippine history. Her chances depend on her performance as a legislator. 
  • Chiz Escudero---whatever Chiz says, those images of him fighting it out with his girlfriends' parents, will haunt him forever at the polls.
  • Bong Bong Marcos-----barring controversial issues, Bongbong might just make it.