Is Noynoy's "political blessing" a factor in the 2016 presidential elections?

Many people are asking me thru email if President Benigno S. Aquino III's political annointment a critical factor in the victory of a presidential bet in 2016?

Let me qualify my answer here. Let us go back in history.

With the exception of Vice President Joseph Estrada, no other presidential annointee has been victorious at the polls since 1986. Estrada won largely because of his own effort.

History shows that a government official annointed by a sitting president as his successor stands to lose against another bet who is perceived to be in opposition to the sitting president.

Fidel Valdez Ramos is an exception. He was Cory's anointed (actually Cory anointed Speaker Ramon Mitra Sr first before changing her mind and instead threw her support behind Ramos, at the last minute). He won largely due to the efforts of his own men, mostly members of the ever-growing Christian democrats and military men.

During Ramos' time, it was also the period when the military clique found their own place in the government bureaucracy. Notice that from the time of Ramos, military men have taken full and firm control not just in the DND, but in other agencies handling critical infrastructure, including the DPWH, DOTC while leaving other agencies under civilian rule.

Ramos' bet Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. lost overwhelmingly against President Estrada. Estrada rode on the crest of a rising anti-criminality campaign.  When Estrada changed the rules of the game midstream, this was used as an occasion by several powerful forces close to Ramos to consolidate forces and drum support for a coup masked as a revolt. Estrada's ouster led to the ascension of Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

When Arroyo fielded her defense secretary Teodoro as her presidential bet last 2010, he lost considerably against President Noynoy who was perceived as a "safe" bet for the presidency.

Now that 2016 is just around the corner, will Noynoy's annointment matter in 2016? Several people think that Noynoy still enjoys tremendous trust and support from the grassroots. However, many people in the know and have access to surveys will tell you otherwise.

If Noynoy agrees on anointing DILG secretary Mar Roxas, Roxas will lose the presidency once more. If elections are held today, surely voters from Visayas and Mindanao and some parts of Luzon will remember those natural calamities and vote against Roxas.

If Noynoy anoints Binay, Binay will lose the elections and will open the possibility of Roxas snatching the post away from him. Why? Roxas will be perceived as an underdog. And underdogs are always supported by an electorate whose thirst for melodramas persists.

If Noynoy annoints an "outsider", that outsider stands a chance of winning the top post. However, should the president choose among his present political allies, that ally will not benefit from this annointment and instead, stands a great chance of losing the elections altogether.

I still believe that a person who is perceived as fresh, incorruptible, without perceived business interests backing him up and widely perceived as being supported strongly by the United States and several grassroots based groups stands a very strong chance of winning come 2016.