What to expect six years after 2016 (First of Two Parts)

Whoever we elect as our Chief Executive by 2016, he (or Heaven please don't, a she!) will inherit a government beset by the same old problems as before yet, uncontrollably entering a new phrase in its economic development. There is no denying that our economy is improving and interest is growing. The only problem is really how to manage its growth so that our people will finally get something out of it.

True, economic growth must be sustained for a period of two terms, meaning twelve years before any improvement in the lives of the people become evident. To achieve this, there must be a continuance of the policies which allowed such growth to flourish. What am I saying here?

Government must continue its tight spending--that nothing is left to chance and that spending people's monies should be treated as strategic rather than tactical. When PDAF was lifted out of the system, the monies which usually goes straight to the pockets of our politicians were put to a much better use than before. Look at the landscape and you'll see an improved infrastructure and somewhat an easement in the lives of the economic sectors like farmers and fishermen.

Graft and corruption stays yet, due to the improved judicial system, these thieves in barong are becoming an extinct species. It takes extraordinary effort now to steal the people's monies, and many people in the bureaucracy are entirely careful not to trip some wires that would alert the public of their misdemeanours.

If the schedule by Malacanan pushes thru, we will be implementing the transitional phase for the creation of the Bangsamoro sub-state. So, expect extraordinary incidents in that part of the Philippines. Forces, both political and economic, would work in tandem to frustrate this. Mindanao is a big area of interests mainly by big economic forces, so these people would definitely do some wrecking just to frustrate the aspirations of the Bangsamoro people. Of course, these people would tap their long-time political and economic allies from among the Bangsamoro people.

What these people do not realise is the fact that the issue has turned into a very serious thing that a tilt towards extremism is possible if this experiment fails. The Bangsamoro Basic Law has turned into a galvanising force that both militant and non-militant components have already reached a point of convergence.

Experts expect that in one way or another, the ISIS will eventually reach Philippine shores. A militant Bangsamoro Mindanao aided by foreign funds could tilt a war in favour of the insurgents.

Is Noynoy's "political blessing" a factor in the 2016 presidential elections?

Many people are asking me thru email if President Benigno S. Aquino III's political annointment a critical factor in the victory of a presidential bet in 2016?

Let me qualify my answer here. Let us go back in history.

With the exception of Vice President Joseph Estrada, no other presidential annointee has been victorious at the polls since 1986. Estrada won largely because of his own effort.

History shows that a government official annointed by a sitting president as his successor stands to lose against another bet who is perceived to be in opposition to the sitting president.

Fidel Valdez Ramos is an exception. He was Cory's anointed (actually Cory anointed Speaker Ramon Mitra Sr first before changing her mind and instead threw her support behind Ramos, at the last minute). He won largely due to the efforts of his own men, mostly members of the ever-growing Christian democrats and military men.

During Ramos' time, it was also the period when the military clique found their own place in the government bureaucracy. Notice that from the time of Ramos, military men have taken full and firm control not just in the DND, but in other agencies handling critical infrastructure, including the DPWH, DOTC while leaving other agencies under civilian rule.

Ramos' bet Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. lost overwhelmingly against President Estrada. Estrada rode on the crest of a rising anti-criminality campaign.  When Estrada changed the rules of the game midstream, this was used as an occasion by several powerful forces close to Ramos to consolidate forces and drum support for a coup masked as a revolt. Estrada's ouster led to the ascension of Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

When Arroyo fielded her defense secretary Teodoro as her presidential bet last 2010, he lost considerably against President Noynoy who was perceived as a "safe" bet for the presidency.

Now that 2016 is just around the corner, will Noynoy's annointment matter in 2016? Several people think that Noynoy still enjoys tremendous trust and support from the grassroots. However, many people in the know and have access to surveys will tell you otherwise.

If Noynoy agrees on anointing DILG secretary Mar Roxas, Roxas will lose the presidency once more. If elections are held today, surely voters from Visayas and Mindanao and some parts of Luzon will remember those natural calamities and vote against Roxas.

If Noynoy anoints Binay, Binay will lose the elections and will open the possibility of Roxas snatching the post away from him. Why? Roxas will be perceived as an underdog. And underdogs are always supported by an electorate whose thirst for melodramas persists.

If Noynoy annoints an "outsider", that outsider stands a chance of winning the top post. However, should the president choose among his present political allies, that ally will not benefit from this annointment and instead, stands a great chance of losing the elections altogether.

I still believe that a person who is perceived as fresh, incorruptible, without perceived business interests backing him up and widely perceived as being supported strongly by the United States and several grassroots based groups stands a very strong chance of winning come 2016.

"Jejo Mar", "Binay-Villar" , Escudero-Aquino and other possible tandems for 2016

Credible sources revealed that DILG secretary Mar Roxas has already formed his team for 2016. His friend, Nani Braganza, leads the pack as his campaign cum media manager. Too early? Well, with all the flak Mar is getting, preparing early seems to be the best answer to a serious reputational problem.

The question is---who will be the partner of Mar? Will it be Grace Poe, the political neophyte who got the top post last 2010? a Roxas-Poe or RP? or Mar Grace?

There are some who are suggesting a Roxas-Escudero tandem, something very palatable to most people inside the Aquino administration. Escudero maintains a strong grassroots machinery. It will compliment Roxas' hold of the local officials.

Someone whispered about an Escudero-Kris Aquino tandem...well, what can I say?

How about "Jejo Mar", with the Vice President running for the top post and Mar settling for the vice presidency? That will fully galvanize this administration and move decisively for victory.

According to sources, Jejomar Binay already has his Executive team handpicked and ready to assume their posts the minute he wins the presidency. The Vice president is so confident these days, what with most of his potential enemies under extreme attack.

If this does not stick, then how about a Jejomar-Manny or a Binay-Villar (BV) tandem? Seems likely since former senator Manny Villar has a very nice record of service for the nation. They both have a strong presence in the OFW sector.

There are others out there who are potential presidential candidates...

One example is Manila mayor Joseph Estrada. Don't count him out. Estrada still packs a political punch and seriously, he probably won the 2010 elections. If he runs separate from Binay, that will split the opposition into two, and in an open contest, Binay stands to lose.

How about an Estrada-Poe? That is a sure blockbuster tandem.

Or an Estrada-Marcos?

Bongbong Marcos remains the political darkhorse. He has a very strong grassroots presence and everyone seems convinced that the former strongman's son is a formidable political opponent come 2016.

The only question is---is 2016 the right time for him? He can reprise his father's former political path by gunning for the Senate presidency in the 16th Congress and from there, develop more political points for a shot at the presidency come 2022? By that time, most of his political enemies are either dead or are politically incapacitated.

Or he can go out and try his luck and fight against political heavyweights the likes of Binay, Roxas, Estrada?

AMPATUAN LAWYER AS COMELEC CHAIR

Election specialist Sixto Brillantes Jr. is now the head of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). Wow. Yet, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano says there's no "wow" factor in his appointment.


I say "wow" because appointing Brillantes Jr. shows the true nature of this administration--it is still playing politics instead of minding the change business. Malacanang chose a pragmatist instead of an idealist, a wrong way to start the change business.


Brillantes is a veteran of COMELEC wars, among them, the manipulation of poll results in Maguindanao, the province of the Ampatuans. Numerous ballot boxes were found there. And the Ampatuans are no expert in election law, they are only experts in killing their enemies, and stuffing their mouths with earth. Who then advised them to hide those ballot boxes?


Justice secretary Leila de Lima says Brillantes' appointment will improve the image and reputation of the COMELEC. Come on, dear Mam! How will that happen when everyone knows that Brillantes orchestrated several issues that actually put the COMELEC's reputation at stake.


What this administration is concerned about is the possibility of lording it over the mid-term elections of 2013.  This election is crucial because it will determine the fate of those who want to be president in 2016.


If a particular party dominates the politics "from below", it will surely grab the politics "from above". Meaning, grassroots support is very crucial in any election. If a political party strengthens its hold over the grassroots machinery, then, whoever does that, will win the 2016 elections.


The Liberals want nothing more than this. Mar Roxas is again putting his lot come 2013. He is running as a Senator, in preparation for 2016. Chiz Escudero is doing the same thing. Only Jejomar Binay and Bongbong Marcos, potential presidentiables, are staying away from the mid-term elections.