Monday, January 12, 2015

Presidential elections in 2016: Roxas-Poe tandem for administration

This early, many sees a four man fight for the top executive post come 2016.

DILG secretary Mar Roxas is sure to throw his hat unto the ring. Aside from being the sentimental choice of Liberal party members according to Senate president Franklin Drilon, Roxas believes that it is his "destiny". Several people reportedly overheard Roxas telling people that it is his destiny because his family suffered and sacrificed so much for the country.

Who does not know Mar's grandfather, Manuel Roxas who's term as president was cut short due to a heart attack. His father, Gerry Roxas, an esteemed and well-loved Senator, and his brother, Gerry "Dinggoy" Roxas Jr both died unexpectedly. That leaves him, Mar, the only heir to the illustrious political heritage of the Roxas family.

Among those who want the presidency, Mar Roxas is the most trained, having served in various capacities under several administrations. Mar knows how the bureaucracy works. Yet, ask him what monumental changes he effected during those times he served that benefitted his countrymen? Anyway, that's a different matter altogether.

Yes, his father, the late senator wrote important pieces of legislation that redounded to the benefit of the masses. Now, as regards Mar, what piece of legislation does we remember that he wrote? Anyway..

Of course, the main "thorn" of Mar is former Makati mayor and now Vice president Jejomar Binay. Binay is the first generation of his own political dynasty, a poor fella who, thru sheer hard work, climbed himself to fame and fortune. Binay belonged to a poor family and like Bonifacio, was orphaned in an early age. Nonetheless, Binay struggled and had himself educated thru his own efforts. He graduated from the University of the Philippines College of Law. Instead of practising law and getting rich quick through corporate law practice, Binay elected to become a human rights lawyer instead. He fought against the Marcos regime. He was incarcerated and even then, joined other human rights lawyers in fighting for the rights of those tagged as enemies of the state.

After EDSA revolution in 1986, Binay was appointed by Cory to administer Makati. After this, Binay ran and won as mayor. From that time on, Binay led Makati and transformed it from a tiny city into the country's richest city. He ran in 2010 and won the vice presidency.

Many sees Senator Grace Poe, a freshman senator, to also throw her hat unto the ring. Poe is an American citizen who is the adopted daughter of former actor and recognised winner of the 2004 presidential elections, Fernando Poe Jr. Poe grew in the states and frankly, no one knows what she did there and what her husband, a Llamanzares do for a living.

Anyway, Poe is running. Her campaign, which Senator Serge Osmena is backing, aims not for the top post, but comfortably, the second highest. She will proclaim her running first, just to destroy the base of Binay, and afterwards, will partner with Roxas for a Roxas-Poe tandem.

Many analysts see the Roxas-Poe tandem as the most logical team-up to preserve the alliances created among various groups during the Aquino administration. Of course, those who will back Roxas-Poe are different from the group who will back Binay.

The expected political configuration come 2016 will be:

1. The Balai group (Hyatt 10, Black and White Movement, Akbayan and LP) will team up with Osmena Group to support a Roxas-Poe tandem.

2. The Samar group (Peping Cojuangco, and close Aquino associates) will probably back Binay, along with a faction of Estrada group, a faction of the Liberals and a faction of the Nacionalista Party and Nationalist People's Coalition.

That leaves us with the Nacionalista Party---who then will they field?

Because of the foolish antics of Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV, there is not much happening within their own party. They destroyed whatever credibility and chances these two have in 2016. Among the NP, only two are viable--Marcos and Villar.

Marcos is a first-time senator and may elect not to run for the presidency. Villar, on the other hand, says his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar is busy with their real estate business, which is truly and wonderfully, being managed by the former senate president.

If we are, however, re-visit the surveys, Villar is not figuring well, unfortunately. Other Nacionalista party members such as Bongbong Marcos Jr are scoring better than Villar. The thing about Marcos is that, he is the most logical and probably, a most sentimental choice among young voters yet, several analysts believe that his time is not yet up.

The most logical for the Nacionalista is to cause a coalition of forces with either the LP or Binay's UNA. Who will they pick?

Senator Chiz Escudero, who is a party less politician, figures well in the surveys. He is being backed before by Danding Cojuangco of the NPC, but they had a widely published break-up.

Should Escudero break from the mild so to speak, and chose to ally with the LP, he will not get what he wants which is an endorsement as vice president.

If Escudero elects to ally with the Binay group, he stands to alienate himself and break with the group of Poe, whom he is very close. This is an open option.

If Escudero chooses to do it alone, the most viable partnership is really with Trillanes. However, sources say if Poe runs for the vice presidency, Trillanes will surely give way. The chances of winning however is slim because they don't have a major or big financier.

So, then, if we are to look at the political landscape, it seems that the only concrete tandem now being pursued vigorously by certain members of the administration is the Roxas-Poe tandem or RP Team for short.

This is worrisome because this tandem represents the various interests of Big business dominating the country.