Senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. is probably praying very hard right now. Instead of just running for another term as Senator, Bongbong decided to throw his hat onto the vice presidential derby. Whoever advised him to do it probably thought that the political atmosphere is ripe for another Marcos in Malacanang. Or, he was advised to end his maturing political career in a premature way.
A loss come 2016 would end the young Marcos' ambition to get the prized crown once more. Everyone knows how hard it is to campaign for the presidency without a platform. Bongbong would have to spend so much more if he wants the presidency.
What is another six years of waiting? By that time, Bongbong would be 64 years old and the political situation more favorable for him than any other candidate. By 2022, there is still no visible political heavyweight strong enough to counter Bongbong's cruise to the presidency. Who would dare a Marcos run? Escudero? No chance. Pangilinan? Are you kidding? A son of former president Estrada? Who? JV or Jinggoy? They don't have the charisma of their father. Poe? By that time, yes, she would have qualified yet probably weaker politically.
Is it wiser for Bongbong to test the waters now? In a way, yes. It is a gamble worth trying because of what had transpired in the political scene.
There is a basis for such an advice. One, the Ilokano vote. Two, the pull coming from the Visayan vote. Lastly, the possible votes coming from Mindanao, of which some communities are peopled with Ilokano families.
Yes, Bongbong registers a popularity of a consistent 7%, and a ranking which is always either fifth or sixth. In a situation such as what we have now where there is no clear winner or someone highly popular enough to pull voters away from other candidates, there is still a chance that 7% would turn double-digit anytime. And when that happens, that will give Bongbong a stronger than even chance of winning the vice presidential slot.
Remember that ratings only serve to attract financiers. What matters most is high conversion rates. In all likelihood, an Ilokano candidate with very strong Visayan links could easily pull off a surprise because voters elect those whom they can identify themselves with.
By this announcement, this will crystallize efforts at unifying the Ilokano vote and the Visayan votes once more behind one candidate. This is the same strategy employed by his father when he ran for the Senate and eventually, for the presidency.
Minority Vice President
The current field is peopled with at least six VP candidates: Trillianes, Cayetano, (possibly Honasan?), Robredo, Marcos and Escudero. Look at these names--except Marcos, all the rest do not have a visible constituency. With Robredo's entry, the Bicol vote would surely be fragmented and segmented.
Cayetano is banking on a Duterte support and if this does not happen, expect Cayetano to lose to Bongbong. Trilianes is banking on the wide support base of the Magdalo. What he does not realize is his network is fragmented along regional lines as well, and Magdalos based in Region 1 would think twice before they support him rather than Bongbong. Likewise, the Magdalo groups behave as dependent organizations instead of independent political forces in their respective locales.
Robredo is banking on the vaulted LP machinery yet this electoral behemoth is being threatened by desertions left and right, most going to the Poe-Escudero tandem, believing that this aggrupation is the winning side. Without a big party machinery, who among these political groups is strong enough to counter Bongbong's?
As I said in my previous post, the entire game is hinged on sustainability. Is the Poe-Escudero campaign sustainable? No. If Poe is disqualified, then, this partnership would surely break at the seams. Popularity is not enough to deliver votes. You may be preferred by voters but if you don't have the organisation to protect those votes, then, it is next to impossible to win.
I change my previous analysis---Bongbong Marcos is a sure winner in the vice presidential derby for five (5) reasons: one, he has the Ilokano and the Visayan voters; two, he has the machinery; three, the field does not have a deep bench. There is no contender strong enough to stand before him tit-for-tat. Fourth, the young voters do not have or show a deep antipathy or animosity for the young Marcos and fifth, the Marcos' family's political enemies are fading into oblivion, one by one.
It seems that the universe is conspiring to give Bongbong the win.
Showing posts with label bongbong marcos jr. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bongbong marcos jr. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Bongbong Marcos to risk all?
Everyone agrees that Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr deserves a higher post. For one, he is intelligent. His heart seems to be at the right place, and Bongbong is someone who knows what he is doing and knows how to get what he wants.
Among those who aspire for the top post, Bongbong enjoys a distinct advantage--he is familiar with government and its processes. Bongbong carries with him a surname which is synonymous with greatness. The only real problem is the name also carries with it a stigma.
What stigma? A political stigma that is.
It is not the actions of his father during Martial law that made people hate or even loathe the Marcos political brand name, no. It was the excesses that even Bongbong took part of that most people remember. Most people do not blame Bongbong's father, Ferdinand senior for declaring Martial law. Most people accepted and even admitted that it was a necessary means towards a greater end--a more ordered society.
What turned the people's admiration into hatred was when Marcos and his family, and that included Bongbong were seen living the high life while the rest of the country was suffering the effects of a dire economic recession.
Many died during Martial law, but not a whimper was heard from the majority of the people because that was a silent acceptance of the declared system.
The people only resorted to violent acts when they saw how the Marcosses hobnobbed with royalty while most of the people suffered and reeled from poverty.
It was the people who gave Marcos the opportunity of leading this country towards an authentic revolution. Yet, Marcos decided to veer away from the very reason why he declared Martial law, and that was correct the monumental flaws of the system, and obliterate the greedy elites that hampered the progress of this country from third world to first world status during the sixties.
Marcos, back then, was a symbol of both resistance and renaissance. Resistance because he came from the professional classes and renaissance because the people think that he has the intellect and the might, the power to effect the change, the way every Filipino wanted it.
Yet, Marcos bungled that historic opportunity. Marcos was a symbol for change yet he himself became a target of resistance later in life because he conveniently forgot the very thing that endeared him with the masses in the first place--the masses saw in him, a champion, that was admired because of his wit, his principles and his sense of History.
Now, Bongbong thinks that it is his time to get hold of History and snatch it away from all the other pretenders for the throne. What Bongbong forgets and he must be made to remember it, is that he still represents a political legacy that is as spotty as it is loathsome.
He carries none of the promises that the masses saw in his father during his father's prime. Marcos senior symbolized a cause. Marcos junior does not. What cause does Bongbong represent? The "Tayo-Tayo" ideology espoused by his TV ADVERTISEMENT and which shows him doing a selfie with young people?
A classic empty promise of windmills? The shallow hope that a smile gives to its beneficiary?
Bongbong is risking all if he decides to really accept this illusion being peddled by many of him gunning for the vice presidency even though there is really no pillar by which his belief of a general sentiment about the Marcos regime stands from.
I think this is not the ripe time for Bongbong to jump into the fire. For one, Bongbong must prove to all and sundry that he runs for the right reasons and not because his mother expects him to or his financiers want him to get the highest post.
Among those who aspire for the top post, Bongbong enjoys a distinct advantage--he is familiar with government and its processes. Bongbong carries with him a surname which is synonymous with greatness. The only real problem is the name also carries with it a stigma.
What stigma? A political stigma that is.
It is not the actions of his father during Martial law that made people hate or even loathe the Marcos political brand name, no. It was the excesses that even Bongbong took part of that most people remember. Most people do not blame Bongbong's father, Ferdinand senior for declaring Martial law. Most people accepted and even admitted that it was a necessary means towards a greater end--a more ordered society.
What turned the people's admiration into hatred was when Marcos and his family, and that included Bongbong were seen living the high life while the rest of the country was suffering the effects of a dire economic recession.
Many died during Martial law, but not a whimper was heard from the majority of the people because that was a silent acceptance of the declared system.
The people only resorted to violent acts when they saw how the Marcosses hobnobbed with royalty while most of the people suffered and reeled from poverty.
It was the people who gave Marcos the opportunity of leading this country towards an authentic revolution. Yet, Marcos decided to veer away from the very reason why he declared Martial law, and that was correct the monumental flaws of the system, and obliterate the greedy elites that hampered the progress of this country from third world to first world status during the sixties.
Marcos, back then, was a symbol of both resistance and renaissance. Resistance because he came from the professional classes and renaissance because the people think that he has the intellect and the might, the power to effect the change, the way every Filipino wanted it.
Yet, Marcos bungled that historic opportunity. Marcos was a symbol for change yet he himself became a target of resistance later in life because he conveniently forgot the very thing that endeared him with the masses in the first place--the masses saw in him, a champion, that was admired because of his wit, his principles and his sense of History.
Now, Bongbong thinks that it is his time to get hold of History and snatch it away from all the other pretenders for the throne. What Bongbong forgets and he must be made to remember it, is that he still represents a political legacy that is as spotty as it is loathsome.
He carries none of the promises that the masses saw in his father during his father's prime. Marcos senior symbolized a cause. Marcos junior does not. What cause does Bongbong represent? The "Tayo-Tayo" ideology espoused by his TV ADVERTISEMENT and which shows him doing a selfie with young people?
A classic empty promise of windmills? The shallow hope that a smile gives to its beneficiary?
Bongbong is risking all if he decides to really accept this illusion being peddled by many of him gunning for the vice presidency even though there is really no pillar by which his belief of a general sentiment about the Marcos regime stands from.
I think this is not the ripe time for Bongbong to jump into the fire. For one, Bongbong must prove to all and sundry that he runs for the right reasons and not because his mother expects him to or his financiers want him to get the highest post.
Monday, April 13, 2015
Pony government entered into a deal with a ghost who maintains bank accounts
Who will save us from this stupidity? I am so ashamed not as a Filipino but as a citizen of this Republic.
For years, government reportedly knew his "real name", and so claims this person known as Mohaqher Icbal. However, the military admits they simply don't know. Who knows? Prof. Sheila Coronel-Ferrer and Teresita Deles only? How about the rest of the damned republic?
Icbal says it's a matter of security. For forty years, says OPAPP propaganda, Icbal has been in the thick of things. Eh, yun naman pala eh. He has been in the struggle for years, sacrificing his life for the sake of the "cause". Ano pang katatakutan niya?
I don't agree with Senator Teofisto Guingona's argument that this use of an alias is a trivial matter. It is not as what they (meaning, government) wants us to think.
And what senators failed to ask "Mr. Iqbal" today during Senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos hearing was his true nationality. Iqbal says, he will be willing to reveal his true name shortly after the signing of the BBL. There is a deeper reason for this and which this writer knows but will let this "person who claims to be Mohaqher Iqbal" reveal for himself.
Worse, Iqbal says he has numerous bank accounts under his name. So there. That means that government tolerated this person for so long and probably, even gave him a legitimate government ID to use for his transactions.
Is this the price for peace, that we will allow such travesty of our laws, just to get the support of a rebel group and the passage of an ambiguous law?
Hindi ba pwedeng makuha ang kapayapaan sa Mindanao nang walang kalokohan at pagkapahiya natin bilang pamahalaan? Na kailangang hiyain pa lahat ng miyembro ng pamahalaan kapalit ng isang batas na hindi naman natin siguradong magtatagumpay?
For years, government reportedly knew his "real name", and so claims this person known as Mohaqher Icbal. However, the military admits they simply don't know. Who knows? Prof. Sheila Coronel-Ferrer and Teresita Deles only? How about the rest of the damned republic?
Icbal says it's a matter of security. For forty years, says OPAPP propaganda, Icbal has been in the thick of things. Eh, yun naman pala eh. He has been in the struggle for years, sacrificing his life for the sake of the "cause". Ano pang katatakutan niya?
I don't agree with Senator Teofisto Guingona's argument that this use of an alias is a trivial matter. It is not as what they (meaning, government) wants us to think.
And what senators failed to ask "Mr. Iqbal" today during Senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos hearing was his true nationality. Iqbal says, he will be willing to reveal his true name shortly after the signing of the BBL. There is a deeper reason for this and which this writer knows but will let this "person who claims to be Mohaqher Iqbal" reveal for himself.
Worse, Iqbal says he has numerous bank accounts under his name. So there. That means that government tolerated this person for so long and probably, even gave him a legitimate government ID to use for his transactions.
Is this the price for peace, that we will allow such travesty of our laws, just to get the support of a rebel group and the passage of an ambiguous law?
Hindi ba pwedeng makuha ang kapayapaan sa Mindanao nang walang kalokohan at pagkapahiya natin bilang pamahalaan? Na kailangang hiyain pa lahat ng miyembro ng pamahalaan kapalit ng isang batas na hindi naman natin siguradong magtatagumpay?
Monday, January 12, 2015
Presidential elections in 2016: Roxas-Poe tandem for administration
This early, many sees a four man fight for the top executive post come 2016.
DILG secretary Mar Roxas is sure to throw his hat unto the ring. Aside from being the sentimental choice of Liberal party members according to Senate president Franklin Drilon, Roxas believes that it is his "destiny". Several people reportedly overheard Roxas telling people that it is his destiny because his family suffered and sacrificed so much for the country.
Who does not know Mar's grandfather, Manuel Roxas who's term as president was cut short due to a heart attack. His father, Gerry Roxas, an esteemed and well-loved Senator, and his brother, Gerry "Dinggoy" Roxas Jr both died unexpectedly. That leaves him, Mar, the only heir to the illustrious political heritage of the Roxas family.
Among those who want the presidency, Mar Roxas is the most trained, having served in various capacities under several administrations. Mar knows how the bureaucracy works. Yet, ask him what monumental changes he effected during those times he served that benefitted his countrymen? Anyway, that's a different matter altogether.
Yes, his father, the late senator wrote important pieces of legislation that redounded to the benefit of the masses. Now, as regards Mar, what piece of legislation does we remember that he wrote? Anyway..
Of course, the main "thorn" of Mar is former Makati mayor and now Vice president Jejomar Binay. Binay is the first generation of his own political dynasty, a poor fella who, thru sheer hard work, climbed himself to fame and fortune. Binay belonged to a poor family and like Bonifacio, was orphaned in an early age. Nonetheless, Binay struggled and had himself educated thru his own efforts. He graduated from the University of the Philippines College of Law. Instead of practising law and getting rich quick through corporate law practice, Binay elected to become a human rights lawyer instead. He fought against the Marcos regime. He was incarcerated and even then, joined other human rights lawyers in fighting for the rights of those tagged as enemies of the state.
After EDSA revolution in 1986, Binay was appointed by Cory to administer Makati. After this, Binay ran and won as mayor. From that time on, Binay led Makati and transformed it from a tiny city into the country's richest city. He ran in 2010 and won the vice presidency.
Many sees Senator Grace Poe, a freshman senator, to also throw her hat unto the ring. Poe is an American citizen who is the adopted daughter of former actor and recognised winner of the 2004 presidential elections, Fernando Poe Jr. Poe grew in the states and frankly, no one knows what she did there and what her husband, a Llamanzares do for a living.
Anyway, Poe is running. Her campaign, which Senator Serge Osmena is backing, aims not for the top post, but comfortably, the second highest. She will proclaim her running first, just to destroy the base of Binay, and afterwards, will partner with Roxas for a Roxas-Poe tandem.
Many analysts see the Roxas-Poe tandem as the most logical team-up to preserve the alliances created among various groups during the Aquino administration. Of course, those who will back Roxas-Poe are different from the group who will back Binay.
The expected political configuration come 2016 will be:
1. The Balai group (Hyatt 10, Black and White Movement, Akbayan and LP) will team up with Osmena Group to support a Roxas-Poe tandem.
2. The Samar group (Peping Cojuangco, and close Aquino associates) will probably back Binay, along with a faction of Estrada group, a faction of the Liberals and a faction of the Nacionalista Party and Nationalist People's Coalition.
That leaves us with the Nacionalista Party---who then will they field?
Because of the foolish antics of Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV, there is not much happening within their own party. They destroyed whatever credibility and chances these two have in 2016. Among the NP, only two are viable--Marcos and Villar.
Marcos is a first-time senator and may elect not to run for the presidency. Villar, on the other hand, says his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar is busy with their real estate business, which is truly and wonderfully, being managed by the former senate president.
If we are, however, re-visit the surveys, Villar is not figuring well, unfortunately. Other Nacionalista party members such as Bongbong Marcos Jr are scoring better than Villar. The thing about Marcos is that, he is the most logical and probably, a most sentimental choice among young voters yet, several analysts believe that his time is not yet up.
The most logical for the Nacionalista is to cause a coalition of forces with either the LP or Binay's UNA. Who will they pick?
Senator Chiz Escudero, who is a party less politician, figures well in the surveys. He is being backed before by Danding Cojuangco of the NPC, but they had a widely published break-up.
Should Escudero break from the mild so to speak, and chose to ally with the LP, he will not get what he wants which is an endorsement as vice president.
If Escudero elects to ally with the Binay group, he stands to alienate himself and break with the group of Poe, whom he is very close. This is an open option.
If Escudero chooses to do it alone, the most viable partnership is really with Trillanes. However, sources say if Poe runs for the vice presidency, Trillanes will surely give way. The chances of winning however is slim because they don't have a major or big financier.
So, then, if we are to look at the political landscape, it seems that the only concrete tandem now being pursued vigorously by certain members of the administration is the Roxas-Poe tandem or RP Team for short.
This is worrisome because this tandem represents the various interests of Big business dominating the country.
DILG secretary Mar Roxas is sure to throw his hat unto the ring. Aside from being the sentimental choice of Liberal party members according to Senate president Franklin Drilon, Roxas believes that it is his "destiny". Several people reportedly overheard Roxas telling people that it is his destiny because his family suffered and sacrificed so much for the country.
Who does not know Mar's grandfather, Manuel Roxas who's term as president was cut short due to a heart attack. His father, Gerry Roxas, an esteemed and well-loved Senator, and his brother, Gerry "Dinggoy" Roxas Jr both died unexpectedly. That leaves him, Mar, the only heir to the illustrious political heritage of the Roxas family.
Among those who want the presidency, Mar Roxas is the most trained, having served in various capacities under several administrations. Mar knows how the bureaucracy works. Yet, ask him what monumental changes he effected during those times he served that benefitted his countrymen? Anyway, that's a different matter altogether.
Yes, his father, the late senator wrote important pieces of legislation that redounded to the benefit of the masses. Now, as regards Mar, what piece of legislation does we remember that he wrote? Anyway..
Of course, the main "thorn" of Mar is former Makati mayor and now Vice president Jejomar Binay. Binay is the first generation of his own political dynasty, a poor fella who, thru sheer hard work, climbed himself to fame and fortune. Binay belonged to a poor family and like Bonifacio, was orphaned in an early age. Nonetheless, Binay struggled and had himself educated thru his own efforts. He graduated from the University of the Philippines College of Law. Instead of practising law and getting rich quick through corporate law practice, Binay elected to become a human rights lawyer instead. He fought against the Marcos regime. He was incarcerated and even then, joined other human rights lawyers in fighting for the rights of those tagged as enemies of the state.
After EDSA revolution in 1986, Binay was appointed by Cory to administer Makati. After this, Binay ran and won as mayor. From that time on, Binay led Makati and transformed it from a tiny city into the country's richest city. He ran in 2010 and won the vice presidency.
Many sees Senator Grace Poe, a freshman senator, to also throw her hat unto the ring. Poe is an American citizen who is the adopted daughter of former actor and recognised winner of the 2004 presidential elections, Fernando Poe Jr. Poe grew in the states and frankly, no one knows what she did there and what her husband, a Llamanzares do for a living.
Anyway, Poe is running. Her campaign, which Senator Serge Osmena is backing, aims not for the top post, but comfortably, the second highest. She will proclaim her running first, just to destroy the base of Binay, and afterwards, will partner with Roxas for a Roxas-Poe tandem.
Many analysts see the Roxas-Poe tandem as the most logical team-up to preserve the alliances created among various groups during the Aquino administration. Of course, those who will back Roxas-Poe are different from the group who will back Binay.
The expected political configuration come 2016 will be:
1. The Balai group (Hyatt 10, Black and White Movement, Akbayan and LP) will team up with Osmena Group to support a Roxas-Poe tandem.
2. The Samar group (Peping Cojuangco, and close Aquino associates) will probably back Binay, along with a faction of Estrada group, a faction of the Liberals and a faction of the Nacionalista Party and Nationalist People's Coalition.
That leaves us with the Nacionalista Party---who then will they field?
Because of the foolish antics of Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV, there is not much happening within their own party. They destroyed whatever credibility and chances these two have in 2016. Among the NP, only two are viable--Marcos and Villar.
Marcos is a first-time senator and may elect not to run for the presidency. Villar, on the other hand, says his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar is busy with their real estate business, which is truly and wonderfully, being managed by the former senate president.
If we are, however, re-visit the surveys, Villar is not figuring well, unfortunately. Other Nacionalista party members such as Bongbong Marcos Jr are scoring better than Villar. The thing about Marcos is that, he is the most logical and probably, a most sentimental choice among young voters yet, several analysts believe that his time is not yet up.
The most logical for the Nacionalista is to cause a coalition of forces with either the LP or Binay's UNA. Who will they pick?
Senator Chiz Escudero, who is a party less politician, figures well in the surveys. He is being backed before by Danding Cojuangco of the NPC, but they had a widely published break-up.
Should Escudero break from the mild so to speak, and chose to ally with the LP, he will not get what he wants which is an endorsement as vice president.
If Escudero elects to ally with the Binay group, he stands to alienate himself and break with the group of Poe, whom he is very close. This is an open option.
If Escudero chooses to do it alone, the most viable partnership is really with Trillanes. However, sources say if Poe runs for the vice presidency, Trillanes will surely give way. The chances of winning however is slim because they don't have a major or big financier.
So, then, if we are to look at the political landscape, it seems that the only concrete tandem now being pursued vigorously by certain members of the administration is the Roxas-Poe tandem or RP Team for short.
This is worrisome because this tandem represents the various interests of Big business dominating the country.
Friday, September 5, 2014
Vice President Jejomar Binay remains No. 1 in Presidential surveys
 |
| Senator Antonio Trillanes IV-- negative percentage points in soon-to be released survey |
Fact is, she says, two of the Vice President's attackers---Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV---got negative survey percentage points and are now out of the top 5.
I don't want to pre-emp the release of the surveys made by the top survey firms in the country, but, according to highly reliable information, Binay remains on top, followed by Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero, Miriam Defensor Santiago and Bongbong Marcos Jr. Mar Roxas remains at sixth place, followed by Trillanes and Cayetano, who both got negative percentage points.
So there.
Malou Tiquia, a friend, is correct--these attacks will not lead to Binay's downfall.
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