Thursday, August 4, 2016

Duterte is spending his political capital too much and too fast

As I said before, Duterte is bound to fail in his desire to transform this country into a better one if he does not know how to use his presidential powers in the right way. Obviously, his declaration of "destruction" against oligarchs is ill-advised and ill-time. He's what, a month and a half on the job and he's now exposing himself too much, damned too much.

Even Lenin when he staged that 1915 revolution was careful not to disturb the hornet's nest while the time is still not yet ideal. The same thing goes to Mao, Che, and Cuba's Fidel. Even Atartuk.

Duterte is not fighting against some out of town thugs or rich, wealthy yet foolish men, here. He's fighting some of this country's most ruthless men, men who got what they want by fighting other men for it or even killing for power. These men are not some street sonabitches. They had their spurs.

He wants to destroy oligarchs, the very same men who actually caused the fall of a dictator, the near fall of a widow and the mobilization of young pretenders of reform. These men have monies. They are political animals, err, correction, political ogres. These men went past other men because they are skilled in calculating risks.

Duterte should not be so reckless as to express himself so cavalierly. He's Chief Executive now. He's no mayor. He's the President. Duterte must learn how to differentiate and probably compartamentalize.

Duterte must likewise be calculating. His pronouncement against Ongpin and the rest of these so-called "oligarchs" is ill-timed. Why?

First, despite of his popularity (91% trust rating), Duterte is politically weak. Yes, he has his political allies heading the two houses of Congress and one supporter at the Supreme Court. And yes, he has his supporters in various agencies of government. Of course, they're loyal to him but up to what point? They are still untested. Their loyalties are untested. When you play politics, you need to act like a Prince of Macchiavelli.

Second, Duterte still does not have the Left, the entire Left at his side. How many are his political allies? How many are economic allies? And from those figures, how many are actually willing to die with him? These are uncertains.

Lastly, Duterte is too reckless. He shoots himself in the mouth most of the time. If he's proud of his 91% trust rating, that is entirely foolish. Ratings that high is dangerous. Duterte must realize that it is better to start these ratings low and slowly climb up instead of the inevitable ratings going South. How do you expect a 91% to become six months from now--still 91% Everything follows gravity--what comes up must come down. And when he expends his political capital in such reckless pronouncements, Duterte is risking everything, this early in the game.

However, if this is planned by him and his advisers to spark a revolution, then, Duterte better be prepared for a long and hard fight because these oligarchs would not give him an inch. These jerks have been around for centuries, and these people would not give up their status in the society that easily.

Duterte must remind himself that not all people can be bullied. Those who have don't want to be bullied. Duterte should also remember that this is the Big Boy's game now, not some game by street bums.

If he loves this country and his people, Duterte should think of preserving himself for better and bigger fights ahead. Its too stupid and idiotic to just risk it all just to prove to all and sundry that's he's tougher and better than other people.