Red October and all that crap

While the situation in the Philippines is nearing "revolutionary situation" levels, the allusion to a so-called ouster plot against Duterte and the October 1917 Russian Revolution is more of an illusion. The Russian Revolution and the ongoing destabilization of Mr. Duterte's administration do not bear similarities.

For one, the Russian Revolution broke out due to the failure of the bourgeoisie and the Russian Tsar to manage the incendiary situation in Russia brought about by the war and an economic crisis. The situation came to a head when superinflation hit Russia causing widespread poverty and hunger.

As of now, we don't see massive numbers of people filling the streets and demanding government to give them bags of rice. What we see are people lining for cheaper rice, and other people cursing Mr. Duterte for doing absolutely nothing to avert a food crisis.

Likewise, the Russian Revolution was predicted long before it happened as a direct consequence of the shift of Russia from a semi-feudal to a fully capitalist state. The late 19th century also saw the rise of ethnic-based nationalism, with several nations in Europe and Asia up in arms against the ruling elites. There is no such movement outside the Philippines. The fact is, our neighbors are busy tinkering with their gadgets, working their asses off to pay off their bills and they simply don't care whether we kill each other here or what happens to our economy. To each his own, says our neighbors, and our petty squabbles here are being seen as acts of stupid people.

That revolution in Russia was led by a highly organized and determined Social Democratic Party dominated by the Bolsheviks. They have a charismatic nationalist as a leader, Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov aka Lenin whose brother died several years before the success of the revolution.

These Bolsheviks had an ideology which they believe opened their eyes to the truth about capitalism. They were motivated, widely funded, organized and pretty much supported by majority of the people.

I cannot say that with the Communist Party of the Philippines since it does not see itself as just a Leninist party but more of a Maoist party. Since it follows Maoism without declaring that the revolution is being waged "with Filipino characteristics" , it follows that the ideology of which the CPP is pursuing right now is largely dependent on the historical experiences of previous revolutionary movements, namely the Chinese and the Russians.

There is simply no indication that China is funding the CPP and all other enemies of Mr. Duterte to gain a stronger and stable leverage with the Philippine government. For one, there is actually no more to leverage since China's current position is stable and is even considered at an advantage. It is however, to China's interests to eliminate any and all opposition against Mr. Duterte's rule. An autocratic regime led by Mr. Duterte is more manageable for China than a democratic one.

Anyway, this Red October is basically a PR campaign to serve as a subterfuge of the real plotters to change the very system of this government before the May eelctions.

It may likewise be being floated about by certain groups who want to win in the leadership intramurals within the AFP and the PNP. There will be a changing of the guards by November and December and what better way to eliminate nominees for sensitive posts than to tag them as "anti-Dutertes" or worse, "coup plotters." Professor Abinales in one of his analytical papers about the nineties coup phenomenon observes that coup plots are being used by the military to gain several concessions from the political leadership.

Or, there is probably several big ticket items before the table of this President which several unscrupulous people close to Mr. Duterte want him to sign? What better way to enjoy or renew the trust of the president than feeding him information about destabilizations and coups?

The thing is, Mr. Duterte is showing his fragility and poor leadership by practically taking part in a campaign of soliciting the support of the AFP. Duterte's antics are backfiring because that is not the proper way of getting respect from the officers in uniform. That shows how different Duterte is compared with Mr. Marcos who commanded respect without unduly giving more than an arm and a leg to these military barons.

Mr. Duterte's mendicancy is threatening the very democracy he is sworn to protect. He may not realize it but Mr. Duterte's almost daily "pleads" with the military is being seen as weakness by the AFP as an institution, and is making these barons think of how high their posts are in the totem pole of things. Civilian supremacy must be advanced by Mr. Duterte but his antics shows the contrary and opens the possibility of the military taking power due to a vacuum being created by Mr. Duterte himself.

Mr. Duterte must be thinking that he holds the AFP " by the balls." His recent actuations and daily complaints of him being ousted and him being killed are seen in an unflattering light by most, especially middle level officers. Those words of Mr. Duterte show fear, not bravery.