The Plot to Oust Duterte--Real or Imagined?

Former president and now House Speaker Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo became one of at least four voices vouching for the veracity of an information about an ouster plot against President Rodrigo Roa Duterte. Arroyo termed the information a "good one." It seemed that Arroyo got wind of an intelligence report in the possession of her former National Security adviser Hermogenes Esperon, who now serves the very same function now under Duterte. What do we have so far about this alleged ouster plot?

First, Duterte says his political enemies are plotting against him. He says the Liberal Party, the Magdalos and the Communist Party of the Philippines are all conspiring against him. The very same day Duterte uttered these things in public, his own Defense secretary Lorenzana corrected him and said that the plot is being undertaken by the Communists without the participation of the Liberals and the Magdalos.

A few days later, Chief of Staff Galvez (an ex-rebel, a member of the RAM) togethr with his classmate, indulged an interview with respected journalist Tina Monsod Palma of ANC. In Palma's show, Galvez corroborated Duterte's claim with several exceptions--the so-called triumvirate broke down because the Liberals and the Magdalos decided not to take part in the September 21 rally (estimates show that more than 15,000 people went to that rally to call for the ouster of Duterte). Galvez and his deputy chief of staff for operations described the move as "good."

Former Magdalo representative Ashley Ascedillo in a separate interview denied such a plan by their group especially with the Communists because he said, first and foremost, they are soldiers and second, they would lose valuable support from the soldiers the minute they enter into an alliance with the CPP-NPA-NDF which is considered as a traditional enemy of the state.

Officially all of these so-called "suspects" in the alleged "plot" denied it. NDF negotiator Casambre who was identified as the one leading the campaign denied his alleged role, saying that he does not have the personality to lead such an endeavour. NDF consultant Luis Jalandoni also denied it as welll as former CPP chief Jose Maria Sison. However, Sison repeated his prediction twice--Duterte's end nears.

Still, many in the security establishment are publicly fuelling the fire which Mr. Duterte started. The question that many are asking--is this so-called plot, real or imagined? What is it about October that makes Mr. Duterte, our president edgy?

First, by October, we, ordinary citizens will suffer the brunt of inflation and high prices. These oligarchs of oil very close to Mr. Duterte will simply not relent--they will continue giving us headaches. One of Mr. Duterte's business allies are benefiting from the oil price hike winfall which he is now using to further expand his empire. Oil prices will simply go Northward beginning October and slowly rise until March of next year. And Mr. Duterte will not lift even his puny fingers to stop this madness from happening.

Government is anticipating more public uproar since they know that higher prices of goods and services will surely worsen the standard of living of many Filipinos, both living in the metro and those in the provinces.

Second, contending groups within the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police (PNP) will now fight tooth and nail for the top-most positions which would be left vacant by November and December of this year. Everyone knows that 2019 is an election year and whoever occupies sensitive posts enjoy "perks and privileges" from politicians.

It is highly probable that this so-called "plot" is part of a "beautiful plan" by a group either from the AFP or PNP to target several personalities close to the President. Coup plots usually surface whenever the military institution is undergoing a serious crisis or there is an active power struggle within the establishment. That a plot is being "floated about" to scare this President and make him think that several names are into it. It weakens Mr. Duterte's

Coup plots are also a way to weaken President Duterte and forcing him to believe in mirages which unscrupulous people with business interests present before him. Duterte promised to decide on the third telco before December and there are also several major projects lined up for Mr. Duterte's consideration. A "besieged" presidency is ripe for granting favors.

Fourth, there is the midterm elections in the United States. An active movement is moving against Mr. Trump and Mr. Duterte is perceived as a major irritant in efforts by the United States to maintain supremacy over Asia. Indeed, it is also highly possible that there is an active effort but this effort will come from within Mr. Duterte's own circle and not from those outside the power structure. Among all these groups, the only ones with the political motivations, the organization and the possible strength all point to ideologues within Mr. Duterte's circle. They are the ones who will first bear the anger from Mr. Duterte's enemies the minute the opposition wins the 2019 mid-term elections. Any changes in the present power configuration within the administration will impact greatly on these groups within Mr. Duterte's circle. That explains why there is an uncanny and eerie silence from Mr. Duterte's support groups, particularly those who allied with Duterte due to ideological and strategic reasons. Since they already sided with him and sacrificed their own politics with Mr. Duterte and even tolerated his erratic ways in pursuit of their ideological aim, they think they will also rise and fall with him, which they are assiduously guarding with their lives.

These ideologues are within government and they are motivated not by sheer obedience with Duterte. No. They are in government for the pursuit of their own political plans which they believe is being threatened by the erratic behavior of Mr. Duterte, rising graft and corruption within government that slowly affects the integrity of the Duterte administration and the increasing number of enemies this administration is amassing every single minute Mr. Duterte is in office.

Perceptions that Mr. Duterte has allied with the Marcoses are also shaping the future and present actions of these groups. One needs to understand that Mr. Duterte won thru the sheer efforts of a loosely defined and managed coalition of forces formed as a counterforce against the Marcoses AND against Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The perception now that both discredited groups of the Marcoses and the Arroyos are getting on the nerves even of very close Duterte allies that there is enough motivation for these individuals to move against their own principal to save their own hides.

Meaning--- this plot is being floated about to further the interests of several groups within the Duterte administration itself. This so-called LP-Magdalo-CPP-NPA-NDF ouster plot may also be real yet not as potent as the real plot being hatched by forces within Mr. Duterte's political circle. The real plotters know that it is highly IMPROBABLE for the Magdalos to conspire with the LP and with the CPP-NPA-NDF hence, they see this as an appropriate time to pursue their own political AND economic interests.

Whoever is feeding the President this information has one goal--- for Mr. President to become pliable enough to compromise or grant a concession. Those in the know know who Duterte really is--he is a scared cat. He is also a person who will not pursue something which he thinks will only result to a loss. Duterte knows that whatever he does, he will not be able to really convince every single one in the military to side with him. He is not an ideological leader--he is but a rabble rouser.

Whatever this leads to, one thing is certain---we now live in a highly destabilized situation that it is now inevitable for any single force involved to find a compromise, a way out or a "win-win solution." When one destabilises the political environment, the destabilisation continues to weaken state institutions and will force these institutions to find a resolution to the destabilization.

Eventually, these groups involved will come to compromise which eventually may or may not lead to Mr. Duterte's continued stay in power.