The Tipping Point

Okey, we have 50 million registered voters of which, only between 80-85% will be able to cast their votes. Analyze your Comelec data and you'll arrive at a figure closer to 40 million voters, plus or minus two, who will actually cast their votes. (10 million obviously, will not be able to vote. So there.)

So, if you expect 40 million to vote, how many of these votes will actually be counted in favor of the candidate? With a plus or minus two, assume that only around 38 million votes will be counted, either manually or electronically.

Meaning, there is an expected 2 million or so votes wasted, either due to ballots being considered "spoiled" due to human error or simply wasted due to human sabotage.

Now, if 40 million votes, that would mean they'll vote in about 250,000 clustered precincts each having 2,000 registered voters each. Picture the physical arrangement of every precinct. One precinct can actually house only 30 or 40 or so seats (one classroom=one precinct). Make that 50 seats, give the Principal the benefit of the doubt that she can actually arrange the room to accommodate 50 seats.

So, in one batch, you have 50 voters lumped in one classroom, voting. Divide 2,000 by 50 and you have 40 batches, all in one precinct. How many minutes will it take for a voter to complete the almost 2 feet long ballot? 8 minutes.

So, if humans are robots and everything goes well, 40 batches will take only 320 minutes which is about 5.2 hours. If the precinct opens at exactly 7 in the morning, expect the entire process to complete by 12pm. Now, give each voter at least 15 minutes each (finding his name, going to the election officer to get his ballot, sitting, thinking whose name to shade and so on and so forth), it would take well over 10 hours to finish the voting. So, the entire thing would probably complete at well, 5pm, just an hour early than what the Comelec expects.

And we know for a fact that not all precincts open AT EXACTLY 7AM. If a precinct loses just ONE HOUR, meaning it opens at 8AM, chances are that 200 voters will surely get disfranchised. For every hour lost, 200 voters get the boot.

Picture that happening in 1,000 precincts nationwide and you have 200,000 disfranchised and extremely angry voters.

Picture that happening in one city, and you have a very irate citizenry. Replicate that in one province,and you have a hot spot. Do that in Mindanao, and you have a situation going.

This is a tipping point which, if you look at it, do not even consider election violence or physical sabotage or jamming of counting machines or what-have-you.

It simply showed how disfranchisement can cause a lot of ruckus and probably lead to a revolt.

That is just casting of votes. Wait if you hear about the COUNTING OF VOTES.

Since the entire voting will end at 6pm, and that's nearly dark in some places, many things might happen, one of them, physical sabotage.

Many classrooms in our country are not so well lighted. Many cheaters collude with teachers during elections and jammers as small as a car key can very well, sabotage the counting. According to Comelec rules, if the machine fails to transmit the data, then, the teachers are expected to resort to manual counting of the ballots.

So, very simple. Even in areas with automated elections, chances are, excuses will be made to justify manual counting. Will that affect tallies in national posts? Yes. Will it affect tallies in local posts? Surely no. Local candidates will not allow that to happen. Yet, expect that also to happen since the names of local candidates are in the bottom rung of the 2-feet ballot.

If a precinct chooses to manually count, that will take at least two days for a minimum sized area and at least four days for those counting in the provincial level. That will surely frustrate people and will increase tensions.

Imagine where counting takes 5 days and nationally televised poll counts such as the PPRCRV, NAMFREL and quick counts of television networks show a national candidate, say Villar, leading. Five days are a lot to cook up something. Quick counts are not official counts, but traditionally, they influence politics more than anything else.

What if, example, these quick counts show varying figures, what then? How will the Comelec resolve that if only a few, say 30% of areas successfully counted the votes electronically while the rest of the 70% resort to manual? That is surely, an expected delay in the entire poll process.

A 30% automated count will not be substantial in a two or three-way fight, especially in the presidential polls. And this is not un-likely to happen. Fact is, many people expect this to happen.

That is the tipping point.

As I wrote some weeks ago, the winner in the May 10, 2010 elections will be the one who will stand up and seize the initiative. The winner will not win by count. No. He will win by default.

Comelec should better shape up

The one who will stand up and lead the Nation after a tumultuous May 10, 2010 elections will inherit Malacanang.

The end-game will not be decided by the billions of Villar nor the idealism of Noynoy or the high-flying campaign of Gilbert Gibo Teodoro. This elections will be decided on the conduct of Comelec election officials who will handle the counting, be it manual or automated.

These officials will decide what direction with which this country will take in the next ten years. Will it remain the same, old decrepit and hopeless blight in Asia? Or will it be the shining example of hope for democracy in the world?

Comelec chairman Jose Melo brushes aside broadside attacks of certain sectors against the elections. Melo said these "negative" attacks are not doing us any good. It is heightening tensions and creating panic among the people.

Mr. Melo, no Filipino desires to be a critic of another and no one wants to destabilize the polls. It is YOUR COMMISSION which is creating anxiety to all of us, with delays of deliveries and the lack of information dissemination on the use of these optical counting machines.

This space already wrote many weeks ago of an apparent plan by anti-democratic forces to delay the delivery of these machines and push the elections back. This is, unfortunately, happening right now as we speak. Smartmatic only delivered 28,000 machines, short of 2,000 more for the first delivery. Comelec expects to use 82,000. And teachers are still clueless on how to operate these damn and darn gadgets!

Mrs. Gloria Arroyo has committed herself and vowed before US President Barack Obama that she will spearhead the move to have a smooth elections this May. Like her promise to lead the Nation in climate change, Mrs. Arroyo is yet again compromising the stability of democracy in this country by not taking charge and allowing these dark minions of hers time to compromise the integrity of these polls.

This space has warned those who will trifle with our very democracy of the dire consequences of their actions should they persist on their dastardly plan to prolong the agony of the People under this illegitimate rule of Mrs. Arroyo.

The People will not stand idly by while the rapacious elites under Mrs. Arroyo trample and mock the processes of democracy in this country. Nine years are more than enough for the people. Patience is running thin and like this space warned some months ago, aggression will rise among the very masses and will eventually destroy the very levers of this State until a legitimate People's government rise from its ashes.

Mr. Melo and all the rest of the Commissioners must see to it that they do their jobs well to avoid the stark possibility of them being lynched by an irate and impatient mob.

Many people are thinking if these delays are caused by an internal misunderstanding between Smartmatic and Comelec, or a pre-planned move by Smartmatic-TIM. Whatever this is, the main point is this---people should recognize that this is beyond them. That the very futures of our generation and those of the next hinge on how we conduct ourselves in these forthcoming polls.

Let there be no doubt about it---every one will lay down their very lives to protect what is Right and denounce what is definitely wrong.

Mrs. Arroyo to run for Congress in 2010

So, Mrs. Arroyo, the devil enfant, is running for Congress afterall, says one of her closest allies, Secretary Pangandaman yesterday. And the palace issued a formal declaration, saying that Mrs. Arroyo intends to step down from power come 2010. Even one of her loyalists, QC Congressman Matias Defensor urged her to do so. So, what do we fear?

I never doubted actually that Mrs. Arroyo and her devil ilk at that house beside the Pasig really wanted to stay beyond 2010. I heard some of them saying that they would want to, but, like in the past, this administration has the tendency to stand down. Yet, what we should be very vigilant is this "one step backward, two steps forward" policy of this government. We heard these things before and some might even surmise that these pronouncements are just being said to lull us back to sleep.

Yet, one of the interesting things I got from a friend who handled Mrs. Arroyo for many years is really very instructive. He said that Mrs. Arroyo will obviously back down. She's just afraid of prosecution.

Mrs. Arroyo wants to preserve the financial gains she and her family amassed from the people all these years and avert a financial fate similar to what Mrs. Marcos is experiencing right now. That's why she wants to run for Congress in 2010. And she reportedly hates charter change. For Arroyo, the times are still unripe for a parliamentary shift, probably since there's not enough time and the masses are against it.

But, if you analyze things very closely, running for Congress will not shield Mrs. Arroyo from possible cases to be filed by her detractors. In fact, being under the radar still after her term of office will not entirely insulate her from prosecution. Why?

People will still hound her after she steps down from power. There will still be numerous graft and possibly criminal cases to be filed against her which will all be harassment cases, seeing that there is still no law that actually encourages suits against a president while in office.

The most logical advise to Mrs. Arroyo is retirement, not running in office. Retire while you're ahead, says a sage. But, curiously, this is NOT what Mrs. Arroyo will do according to her closest advisers. She wants to still be in the public mind after 2010, which, obviously, pricks curiosity and some might even say, a purely irrational decision.

Likewise, this public pronouncement must not deter people who want change to really gun for Mrs. Arroyo's downfall. Why?

If This is true, then, expect a repeat of the Hello Garci scandal in 2010. This early, there are doubts as to the integrity of the automated elections. Those behind SMARTMATIC are close business associates of the First Gentleman and surely, they would serve as the silent "automators" come 2010. What would prevent these people from manipulating the results of the elections? And how would the administration really ensure a clean elections?

For us to erase our doubts, this administration really has to go. People really mistrust, rather, distrust the Arroyo regime. There will never be a clean elections if the Arroyos are still in power. Whether or not the Arroyo regime intends to use cha-cha, this is already irrelevant because even if we pursue the elections, this will still not be a very clean one, even only basing on the perception of the people.

I hate to say this, but, Mrs. Arroyo and her family have to go. There is no other way but exile for them. And I advise them to do it, resign and leave the country, for the sake of peace and unity.

Dangerous Times Ahead

There are three things which we need to watch in the coming days and weeks. First, last ditch attempts at charter change. Second, possible administration measures to justify extra constitutional means to perpetuate the status quo and third, eventual outbreak of dissent due to public frustration of a non-election scenario.

This administration should not risk a no election scenario. For the past weeks, there is a noticeable increase of prep activity for the elections. Through this ingenious events, it successfully prepared the public to expect an elections to happen in May 10, 2010. People are desirous already of change next year and to frustrate them would definitely mean big trouble. As I wrote in previous entries, wide-spread aggression is possible if this government frustrates the people's desire for change.

Two signs that lead people to surmise a no-election scenario: one, the failed bidding of the automation of the elections at COMELEC and the charter change deliberations next Tuesday.

Though there may have been legitimate reasons, one fact remains that the bidding failed. COMELEC has until May 30 to come up with a new set of bidders and a new bidding process. They can't allow the previous bidders to re-bid. That's a no-no. If they do that, the entire process will be perceived as tainted and it would definitely affect the entire conduct of the coming elections.

It's already May 14 and is 16 days enough to re-do the bidding? COMELEC should speed it up otherwise, public support for a constitutional means for change would surely crumble and justify an extra-constitutional way out of the Arroyo mess.

While prospects of automation hangs in the balance, Arroyo supporters at the House are expediting charter change. So, both--the COMELEC bidding and charter change--are heading towards one deadly deadline.

If charter change succeeds, they'll be elections anyway, albeit, not presidential, but parliamentary. Yet, if automation fails, and it's back to manual counting, the entire integrity of the whole electoral process is definitely suspect and renders the entire constitutional process void ab initio.

That justifies a term extension that would probably be backed up by a pro-Arroyo military. National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales already suggested this some months ago.

Now, is this is a possibility? Yes. Remember that come 2010, class 1978 will be the dominant player in both the AFP and the PNP. With a pro-Arroyo class as the ascendant class, the possibility of either Martial rule or a term extension is there.