Ibrado as AFP Chief to succeed Yano

Lt. General Ibrado's appointment as successor to AFP Chief of Staff Alex Yano is a political masterstroke. Ibrado is a bunkmate of Yano and a brilliant professional soldier, member of PMA Class 1976. By not appointing a PMA 1978 just yet (in the person of Gen. Delfin Bangit), the Arroyo administration averted what could possibly trigger disillusionment among the ranks. The early announcement of Ibrado was also a very deft move. It avoided the costly war among PMAers who are intending to get the top AFP plum.

However, what is significant is Ibrado will only serve until March 10, 2010 or two months prior to the elections. This is alarming. True, Teodoro and Mrs. Arroyo wanted to avoid those PMAers jockeying for the AFP post NOW but actually triggered a very long and protracted AFP C-S post jockeying onward until 2010.

Meaning, from June 2009 to March 2010, top generals, especially those with AFP C-S ambitions, will make themselves open especially to the appointing power, Mrs. Arroyo. And we all know who secured the victory of Mrs. Arroyo in 2004---it was the Generals.

By appointing Ibrado, Mrs. Arroyo just secured the loyalties of PMA Class 1977, 1978 and even 1979--all three PMA classes-- who have generals in the AFP.

Likewise, it allowed Mrs. Arroyo to effectively control the entire Philippine Army, the largest branch of the AFP, thru her factotum, the very controversial Bangit. Bangit, as you will remember, hosted a lavish party when he was the ISAFP chief. He even threw huge sums of money, all 1,000 peso bills, like an "emperor", his codename.

Like an "emperor", Bangit is expected to instill dogged discipline among the ranks. He's preparing for the hard task ahead as Mrs. Arroyo's last AFP chief in 2010. That task, says some very suspicious and malicious tongues, involve securing the victories of administration-backed candidates in 2010. Or, worst, securing the second-generation conjugal dictatorship when it ushers a totally different political system come 2010.

Of course, Mrs. Arroyo and her minions already pre-planned everything. But, as they say, the political and economic climate is sooo fluid right now, anything can happen. Except, of course, if the Games of the Generals changes tack very soon.

Why do people stay in their homes instead of going to Mendiola

Dr. Carol Araullo was interviewed today (12 July 2008) by the Philippine Daily Inquirer. What she said was both interesting and a revelation. For the first time, it jibed with what the Intelligence Service of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (ISAFP) thinks about our current situation.

Despite the high prices of oil and food, it is not incendiary enough to foment riots. Nor revolutions. Nor anything violent. That's whay ISAFP Chief Prestoza said and that's what revolutionaries like Araullo also believes in. So much for revolutions. It's time to eat.

Why?

Well, Araullo thinks that Filipinos are too busy earning a living for them to mind going to those Black Friday rallies or even make those noise barrages. In fact, Araullo reveals that even activists right now are too busy thinking about how to support themselves that they forgot to go to Mendiola to support those League of Filipino Students (LFS).

I understand where Araullo is coming from. That pragmatic thinking might have arisen from the small number of people going to their rallies. Despite those scenes of rallies and demonstrations here and there, no sizeable number of ordinary folks have gone out of their homes to march with them.

And you know why?

It's not that people are hungrier than angry. No. People are just waiting for a group from among their ranks to rise up and call for a genuine revolt. People are tired of groups waging struggle in the name of "isms". They're tired blaming imperialism, feudalism and bureaucrat capitalism for their problems. They already know they're being schemed by those in power. They already know that its the government who's digging their graves and choosing the ones most fit to benefit from a Noah's Ark proposal.

There's no one who can provide them with proper guidance and direction. They can't trust the Genuine Opposition simply because, in their minds, they're not genuine enough.

They're quite hard to support the Black and White Movement because they don't think along those lines. And surely, they can't swallow those Villars, Legardas and Escuderos around since they know these people are only after their votes.

So, what to do, but wait. Wait til a new figure coming from the oppressed classes rise up and lead a true New Revolution. We can liken the People's wrath to water. Its amorphous yes, yet, it follows a certain trail.

Carol, the people will rise up in due time. It's just a matter of time before you see those people expressing their anger one way or another. It might not be thru rallies or demonstrations. No. It might not even be thru those prayer rallies. It deadens them.

Lynchings? Nah. Too medieval. Try a coup.