Gilbert Teodoro: A meeting with the would-be president of the Republic?

I highly respect Carlos Celdran, one of the country's foremost promoters of historical places in Manila and one of the online people whom I feel very credible. He's a Facebook friend of mine and he's an ardent supporter of Gilbert Teodoro, the palace bet. And I highly respect his views. (By the way, his cousin, David Celdran is a very good friend too).

I was fortunate to be invited by Noemi Dado, another good friend and highly respected blogger. She formed Blogwatch (http://blogwatch.ph/), which I was very fortunate to be a guest blogger. I commend Noemi for forming this group.

Anyway, Noemi told me that there is a Blogwatch event featuring presidential bet Gilbert Teodoro. Unknown to her, I was once invited to join the Green Team of Michael Ong, a group connected with Teodoro's closest associate and supporter, Raul Lambino. I attended the first meeting and never went there again.

Gilbert Teodoro---a leader, reformer and visionary

He sat at the head of a long table, an imposing figure with an authoritative air in him. Am I meeting a president? No. I am attending a Blogwatch. ph meeting with administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro.

Teodoro is an ideal leader. He's charming. He's warm. He's a critical thinker and what I discerned, he has a deep understanding of the political system.

Gilbert Teodoro has what other presidentiables lack---he's intelligent and he's definitely a technocrat par excellence.

His prescriptions are fresh, original and utterly doable. He's a quick thinker, a lover of people, and definitely a great listener. When I looked into his eyes, I feel that Teodoro believes in what he says. He is definitely a reformer.

1. Teodoro wants to prioritize education. He wants to implement what Ateneo educator Fr. Bienvenido Nebres prescribes--one year added to the primary and secondary grades. This is in conformity with international standards.

2. Teodoro wants to fast-track modernization through increasing food security. He wants to modernize agriculture, without affecting the environment.

3. Teodoro will definitely solve the worsening urban housing problems by prioritizing giving low-cost housing to the poor.

4. Teodoro wants to bring peace to Mindanao by allowing all stakeholders all "Mindanaoans" to resolve the issues among themselves.

5. Teodoro will definitely pursue peace with all secessionist and insurgency groups. He is quite confident he has the wherewithal to do this because he's friends with all political groups.

6. Teodoro wants to continue infrastructure projects started by his supporter, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

7. Teodoro will definitely reach out to other political parties and form a consensus with them.

8. Teodoro wants to solve the problem of poverty by boosting the economy. He will definitely implement a fair investment climate, with both local and foreign investors enjoying the support of government.

9. Teodoro wants to strengthen the stability of this country by implementing a no-nonsense peace and order policy.

One heavy weight that he bears on his shoulders is his close association with the devil enfant--Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, an association which affects his relationship with the ones he want to serve as president.

Teodoro is now at the bottom rung of the surveys--only 5 percent trust and approval ratings from both the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia. The People have spoken---they don't want Arroyo anymore and being the "anointed one", the People feel that they ought to reject Teodoro's bid for the presidency.

What is admirable about him is his realistic assessment of things---he knows how the system works and definitely knows how to speed up its modernization.

Teodoro is definitely better than other presidentiables. It's just that.....he is still directly connected with Arroyo.

However, come to think of it, that's actually an advantage instead of a disadvantage because it shows the character of the candidate.

I remember one interview with Teodoro. A journalist asked him why is he not disassociating himself with Arroyo? Teodoro answered curtly: he will definitely not do that because that would not reflect well of him. He was raised as a child with traditional values, especially on "utang na loob". Why would you bite the hand that feeds you? It would not look good if he does that.

What is certain is this---Teodoro will not prevent nor influence or use the Office of the President in pressuring anybody who wants to file a case against Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Carlos Celdran heaved a sigh of relief. Carlos is a supporter of Teodoro but hates the guts of Gloria. At least, after June 2010, even if Gilbert wins, surely, those who want to prosecute Arroyo will have a free hand expressing themselves against the former president.

If God wills, Teodoro will win this elections. Like what a Prophet said, miracles do happen.

Gilbert Teodoro's "Galing at Talino" Para sa Tao o Para sa Cono? Judge for yourself

Gilbert Gibo Teodoro’s handlers say their candidate possesses two distinct “talents” or “attributes” that no other candidate have–simply “Galing” (which means superb performance or capability) and “Talino” (wit or “intelligence”). I don’t doubt that. And simply, even other people do not doubt Gibo has the brains and probably the performance as a former Cabinet member to buttress his “stake” in the presidency.

At face value, Gilbert is an ideal president. He's handsome, looks intelligent and has a commanding voice. However, beneath that veneer, what lurks deep into that brain of his?


The question really is—is Gibo really thinking about the common welfare and not only the welfare of a particular class of people and did he serve the interests of the people, not those who nurtured his career as a public servant?


To answer this, let’s look at how Gilbert Gibo Teodoro views the world. His philosophical world-view can be found at http://www.gibo.ph.


Let’s discuss how he plans to manage our country.


First off, Gilbert Gibo Teodoro wants charter change. Gibo blames the 1987 Constitution for the lack of synergy between and among government agencies. He says that the Charter was crafted to lift the vestiges of dictatorship. Now that all the marks of the former regime are already gone, the Charter has already fulfilled its goal. It’s time, says Gibo, to change the Charter, from a hamstrung-ed Constitution, to a more flexible one.


Gibo toys with the idea of changing the political structure, from a presidential bicameral to a presidential unicameral. Gibo does not favor a parliamentary shift; rather he wants to change the Constitution to institute a presidential unicameral system, so that power is actually concentrated in just one entire Executive-Legislative system.


Doing so would mean the perpetuation of the tyranny of elite using a unicameral system and dominated by just one big political party. This model of governance has already been repudiated by other countries. For Gibo, this is the best solution to the current problem we face on our political system.


Obviously, a unicameral form of government would allow Congress to dominate the entire superstructure. If this is instituted, it would be easier for government to sell lands, particularly real estate, to foreigners. Gibo is in favor of allowing foreigners to own lands without cap.


And for a sustainable development, Gibo wants Congress to grant autonomy only to certain areas, where he defines as ready for autonomy. Gibo thinks the country is not yet ready for a Federal form of government.


On the Economy


Gibo provides two views about the economy: we lack innovation, therefore it is time to nurture human resources to be able to create newer and more responsive economic model and two, we need to pay our huge international and domestic debts. For Gibo, the solution to the growing disillusionment about the economy is simply introduce innovation and pay debts.


He avoided discussions on trade liberalization, on agrarian reform, on rural and urban growth and other things about the economy. In fact, his view about the economy can be summed into one paragraph only.


On Education


Gibo wants to push for the expansion of benefits under the Student Loan program. Tertiary level students will be allowed to loan their way to college. For Gibo, these loans are to be deemed “salaries”, therefore, students are given SSS membership cards, a sign that they are earning “salaries”. Meaning, if a student is given an SSS membership, government will be able to deduct a certain percentage in the loans of the student. Wow.


So, if you’re a student wanting a loan, you have to be an SSS member so that government will get a slice off your loan. That’s Gibo’s brilliant suggestion on how to help struggling students pay their college education.


On Disaster Management


Gibo claims to be an expert in disaster management. He proposes that government implements a more responsive disaster management program. There’s a slight problem though—his proposal was the same one he implemented when he was defense secretary and we all know what happened in the entire Metro Manila during the Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng. He says, and I quote:

“…I support pending bills on National Disaster Act. Both versions state that local government units shall be authorized to use not less than 5% of their revenue for disaster risk management, which includes not merely response relief but also preparation and mitigation efforts.


The events [Ondoy, Pepeng] have really shown the fact that indeed local government units must take the lead in disaster risk management even in rescue and relief because the different topographies, the different conditions of the local governments cannot be managed and cannot be foreseen by the national government. So we have to rely on the different local government units to be our guide in case LGUs cannot handle the situation. And we have to rely on the state of LGU preparations. And take the risk also that these preparations maybe inadequate. And that’s the risk that we take when you make decisions everyday.


If at all, I am in full support that local government units take the lead. We can be guides by trying to build up [LGU's] capacities by placing some sort of a rational framework or technical framework for decision making. We have partner agencies that do that, too. With us are the United Nations, the OHA and the rest. However, the most important thing is to give LGUs the freedom and the leeway to use more funds for capacity building in so far as disaster risk management is concerned. And the proposed law which I support totally will give that. “

If elected, what would Gibo do in his first 100 days?


Gibo wants all infrastructure projects finished. He is also thinking of strengthening issues regarding security. Why is Gibo interested on pursuing those unfinished infra road projects? Simple. That's the best way to compensate those local officials who worked hard for him to win.


He will then craft his legislative agenda that includes: the constitutional convention law, a new education road map and the enactment of a Universal health care law. He will also try to convince Congress to enact a revolving student loan program, which funds are to be sourced from the Bangko Sentral and parked at SSS.

Meaning, if you elect Gibo, you are defining electing what he represents, which is cha-cha. And who benefits from cha-cha? You guessed it right---Gloria Arroyo of course.

So, there's a basis for people saying that Gibo is simply Gloria's stooge.


The Mindanao problem


Like other traditional politicos, Gibo parrots the already oft-repeated line of enforcing the law in Mindanao. Gibo wants the implementation of a tough-as-nails kind of policy, which resorts to deployment of more soldiers in the conflict areas. He will then try to implement disarmament, then afterwards, promotion of civic works to spur development. We all know these tactics failed in the past already since no insurgency group would allow government to disarm them. Gibo’s perspective in this lacks a deeper appreciation of the real security situation in Mindanao. In fact, this is just a superficial assessment of the situation, which is a disappointment since Teodoro served as defense secretary for many years.


Political Dynasty bill


Teodoro included this issue as one of his “visions” since he is being accused of being one of the beneficiaries of the non-implementation of a anti-political dynasty bill. Instead of directly addressing the issue, Teodoro blamed the non-implementation of the election finance law. Teodoro says that dynasties can be beaten if there is an efficient implementation or strict adherence to the finance campaign contributions. By levelling financial capabilities, Teodoro sees the defeat of political dynasties. This is a very simple analysis of the prevailing situation. It may be true that the hold of political dynasties are stronger due to their more improved financial status; yet, the fact remains that it would still take a great deal of money before a minority party can defeat a dynastic family.

Net---Gibo's Galing at Talino not for the Common Tao but for his fellow Cono.


To summarize—Teodoro’s prescriptions are no different from the cut-and-paste solutions presented by the elites in the long history of the Republic. Teodoro’s philosophical world-view is simply not transformational enough. In fact, it is simply reactionary. Teodoro’s platform or “vision” you might say, is actually a palliative meant to perpetuate elite domination over all spheres of Filipino life. There is nothing new with what Teodoro is saying, nothing extraordinary for us to get excited and nothing remotely effective in addressing the root causes of our ills and miseries.


Like his cousin, Noynoy Aquino, Teodoro avoided having a concrete stand or solution to the agrarian problem, trade liberalization, issues about the environment and even social injustices.


For me, Gibo’s so-called “Galing at Talino” is nothing more than Genuine Traditionalism or Grossly Trapo. Disappointing since I expect him to honor what he said that service is to the people, not to the Self. Yep, his visions are surely not for him, but for the class which he represents—the elite class whose interests is merely the perpetuation of their domination over the rest of the Filipino People.


What a waste of “Galing” and “Talino”.
By decentralizing efforts in disaster preparedness AND management, Gibo wants local government units to be responsible. The question really is–will this lead to more confusion since we all know what happens to ERAs devoted to LGUs?

Ondoy Update: 73 dead, 32 still missing, Half a Million affected and rising..

As of today, the casualty toll from the onslaught of Typhoon Ondoy has reached 73 dead, with still 32 missing. This is not the final count. More information are pouring in from the provinces affected and authorities fear that this will still rise as the days pass.

Half a million Filipinos were also affected, with an unestimated number of establishments and properties damaged. From this number, only 204 families are staying in evacuation centers. This just says that many more are still there, in their rooftops, waiting, waiting for rescue.

The government, says Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, is doing their level best addressing the situation. Yet, this calamity is so huge, with CNN saying that this is about three times worst than Hurricane Katrina, that government will surely lack the personnel to use for rescue and relief operations. What is not good is that another LPA (Low pressure area) named Typhoon Peping is poised to hit Luzon three days from now. Rains have not yet subsided, especially in affected areas.

Young Organizers’ Union members and I went out of our comfort zones to help our kababayans. We saw how inadequate government resources are and we are also doing our best to assist those who are still in need. There are still many families needing our assistance, especially in Pasig where almost 75% of the city are submerged in muddy water.

Fellow Filipinos, our kababayans need our help. Please lend your support. In whatever way possible, please give assistance to our fellowmen, especially those with babies who need infant formula, those who are aged and those who already lost their loved ones. Pray for them. Best, try to help by contributing even a peso or ten pesos for them. We will survive this calamity together, if we all unite.

To Young Organizers’ Union (YOU) members, your country salute you. Do not relent. Do not be wary. Do not tire. Sacrifice your life for your fellowmen and die trying.

The Aquino Problem and Pragmatism

Yesterday was a classic case of political contrasts. A Palace initiated move brought together 49 governors behind the presidential candidacy of Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, a boost to a sagging campaign, while Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III got additional support from the Kaya Natin! movement and Senator Kiko Pangilinan. Who will eventually win---the candidate with the biggest election machinery or the candidate who claims to have the support of the politicized segment of the middle class?

Aquino supporters are trying very hard to support their assertion of a "groundswell" by presenting personalities behind "people's movements" which have not even proven their political mettle in past or previous political battles. Teodoro's camp, meanwhile, is saying that they have the machinery which the Aquino side does have but in an indeterminate or inordinate way.

Frankly, showing 49 governors backing you up is more formidable than two governors. But, for an idealist, like, say Conrad de Quiros, two governors are enough. It figures why no reformist minded presidential candidate ever won in any post-Marcos elections because reformists are arm-chair ideologues with their own conceptions of reality, not rooted in actuality. Anyway,

Aquino's big problem is his lack of a well-oiled provincial machinery. He will likely get most of the votes in the Metropolitan Manila area and some urban centers as well but it is uncertain whether he registers well in sub-urban and rural areas. These problems cannot be solved by an online campaign nor a tri-media one. These are organizing problems which, at this point, can only solved through building an army of hard-core grassroots organizers who are willing to spend time spreading Aquino paraphernalia in the provincial areas.

Now, the question really is---is it a good political strategy to gather all reform-minded Filipinos in support of an Aquino bid? Yes. Will this bring victory to the so-called "reformist" block of the opposition? No.

If you look and analyze closely the present socio-economic structure of Filipino society, you will find that, to achieve electoral victory, you need to:

1. Convince or organize the 54% of the voting population who belong to the class hovering between the middle and the poor classes. This is the biggest single electoral "block" which can only be organized behind a pragmatic electoral platform.

1. This block is also fragmented into people's organizations, fraternal organizations, peace and order groups, militias, urban poor groups and majority are un-organized.
2. It is in this group that a well-oiled political machinery serves the candidate well. Since this block is not organized within ideological nor political lines, they are vulnerable or susceptible to administration-influence or even with a trapo political party like Erap's.
3. This group is highly pragmatic and will never contribute money behind any political personality's campaign (so, it is highly unlikely that Ed Panlilio's Ninoy for Noynoy campaign be able to take off)

2. In all probability, the 19% share of the middle class is not enough to win an election. And this class is totally fragmented by traditional organizations and civic groups (Rotary, Lions, etc.). And it is quite doubtful if Aquino would snare the entire class and mobilize this for his campaign since almost 30% of this has shown their preference to Chiz Escudero (based on latest Pulse Asia survey 2009) and about 28% to Villar. Now, this class would obviously break itself into tiny "blocks" which could affect either Chiz or Villar's preference share.

3. If the reformist block thinks that Mar Roxas' move would start a series of pull-backs, they are obviously wrong. If you really analyze very closely, the block that sides itself with the Liberal Party is just a small fraction of the so-called "anti-Arroyo" but not necessarily "anti-government" "opposition". They are actually a segment of the organized, politicized and middle class block which is also fragmented.

1. Yes, this block can very well comprise an election machinery but this will never match the machineries of other political parties, like, say Villar's or Erap's or even the administration machinery. Elections in the Philippines are decided by the depth of grassroots penetration. Organizers are the ones who herd voters to the precincts, who spread election info, who influences voting preferences and who practically dictates what voters will write or choose as their candidates.
2. Now, if Aquino wants to win, he may have to gather all these organizers behind him and sustain the relationship through either monthly or weekly allowances. Probably some would actually volunteer but most reliable grassroots organizers have already been "compromised"
3. Aquino should break the hold of other parties in grassroots work by convincing their organizations to show "solidarity" or "break ranks" with other political parties. It is doable yet, time is really not on their side at this point.

To defeat this machinery, the opposition needs to synthesize the idealist or "reformist" with that of the trapo opposition parties, of Estrada's and Escudero's. Never mind Villar's--he will definitely not back down since he already invested billions to his campaign. This block should convince Erap's and Escudero's to "pull-back", which, in all probability, is not "doable" at this point.

In all likelihood, Aquino's bid will go the way of Roco's campaign or even Salonga's. Hate to disappoint but look at the figures and this is true.

Dear Filo: Where's the vision?

I just read the comments of Filo, very interesting pieces. It gave me something to think about. And his points are very well taken. Thanks, bossing. For those who don't agree with any one of my entries here, please comment. I would definitely answer each and every one. By the way, if you want news, just go to my site at http://www.newphilrevolution.com.

Now, for those who want to contribute, you can do so. Just email newpatriots@newphilrevolution.com. I'll be happy to post it at the new NPR. I want it sana to be a user-generated content site.

A few days from now, we will launch the new online news magazine: The Filipino News Network. The URL is http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com.

Actually, I meant well when I wrote about Senator Villar's act. Filo is right. Don't worry, I'll correct it. I really did not mean to endorse anybody here. As I said, I'm just an observer of political dynamics.

Now, the problem with all these presidentiables, no one has a concrete political agenda. No one has a vision. No one has the right ideology fit for us. For example, everybody, especially Chiz Escudero mouths motherhood statements every single time. Mar Roxas, meanwhile, tries to manipulate our emotions. While si Villar, nagmumurang kamatis with his Tropang Villar (or Tropang Manny). Corny.

The one that I, at least, got some sense is Teodoro's ads. It's a public service announcement yet the branding is clear. Teodoro, at least, revealed his ideology before the public. (check out what it is).

That's why, many people, and that includes me, fear 2010. Why? No one stands out among the presidentiables. No single one.

We hope that Chiz would fit the bill but talks about how he tries to get Mrs. Arroyo's endorsement is a total letdown. It's not surprising since Chiz's father used to work for ex-strongman Ferdinand Marcos. Like father, like son? That's a possibility. Look, Chiz used to be the spokesperson of the opposition. He used to be with UNO. Then, he reverted back to NPC. He abandoned his comrades there.

Mar Roxas, I think, has the will yet he seems to fidget, confirming what Mrs. Arroyo accused him of as doing some pussyfooting. Loren Legarda also does that. Remember that pronouncement that she'll align only with Erap? After that statement, Legarda retracted and announced that she'll submit herself to the NPC process. What in God's name was that?

Villar, well, is involved in a controversy and debases himself and the people for continually snubbing the Senate ethics investigation. Instead of answering the accusations, point blank, he resorts to image control. That shows what kind of governance Villar will have once he wins.

Gordon is at least above reproach with his actions; yet, his soft stance in the fight against terrorism is a total letdown. You talk peace with legitimate revolutionary groups, not with terrorists. Maybe Gordon needs to re-study the political spectrum.

Noli de Castro boasts of the government's housing program, telling everybody how successful they were giving 1.8 million families decent homes. What he failed to tell us is, what now? I heard almost half a million of these families are having a hard time paying for their housing loans.

Another hopeful, Among Ed Panlilio, seems too good to be true. Too good that he probably is still unprepared for a higher post. Someone who has the vision might, at one point, conclude that it is not the Office of the President that causes these social problems. It is the system that causes all of these woes. What if Among Ed realizes it? Would that convince him to change this system in a drastic manner?

How about Bayani, you ask? Well, I don't like to waste words with a Hitler mini-me.

I urge Filo to contribut articles to this space, if he has time. I'll publish him. I urge him to submit articles for http://www.newphilrevolution.com and http://www.filipinonewsnetwork.com.

Thanks, again. And God bless.

Why is Defense secretary Teodoro not in the official delegation to Washington?

Is'nt it very odd that Mrs. Arroyo left her Defense secretary here when the purported reason behind Washington's invitation was all about terrorism? Mrs. Arroyo deemed it wise to tag along her amigas, Congresswomen Amelita Villarosa, Cosculluela and even Cong. Susano along, with MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando and his wife Marikina mayor Marides, but forgot to include her defense chief when all she will be talking with Barack Obama are defense and security matters?

It seems even strange that Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita, who heads the presidential task force on Human Rights and Justice secretary Agnes Devenadera, who heads the department handling sensitive criminal and civil cases, are included. Would Obama discuss those increasing numbers of human rights cases here? Possibly, says Senator Rodolfo Biazon.

It is even more odd that a Senator, Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago is also with Mrs. Arroyo. What would be the role of Miriam when she does not know about defense and security matters anyway?

Senator Rodolfo Biazon said that the visit may not be as good as what she had back in 2004, the year when she was elected. There is a great possibility that Obama will discuss the worsening human rights situation in the country.

Back to my original question---what is the reason behind that decision to leave Teodoro behind? Curiously though, Teodoro's rival for the Lakas-KAMPI presidential nomination, Fernando, is with the president. Is that an indication that Teodoro has already secured Mrs. Arroyo's support and Teodoro is slowly being eased out, like what's happening with Puno?

For the latest update, go to http://www.newphilrevolution.com.

Noli de Castro running as president

ABS-CBN anchor Ted Failon and beautiful and talented co-anchor Pinky Webb interviewed Vice President Noli de Castro today. Webb (congrats by the way. Webb is really promising. She's even better than Karen who reported a lop-sided (PR?) story yesterday about the Ruby Barrameda case) asked De Castro if he's running for the presidency.

De Castro said he's done as vice president so it's confirmed that he's running for another post. The question really is---what political party would he be running under? It's confirmed that he's talking with the stalwarts of administration party Lakas-KAMPI. He admits that the party has a very strong machinery. The question that De Castro wants to resolve is very simple---does he really have his own funds and his own machinery before he plunges himself in the race.

Lakas-KAMPI members are urging De Castro to reveal his political plans. De Castro, however, said that he's not doing that AT THIS TIME since he needs to finish many things first as Vice President. He does'nt want people to think of politics when he does his job as V-P. He thinks that it's still a few months away anyway from the deadline in filing his certificate of candidacy. Webb hinted that it may be in September when De Castro would declare his candidacy.

What De Castro does not know is this---October would be the month where political parties would nominate their official candidates for all elective posts. So, if ever he wants to really run, he needs to declare it as early as August to allow him some time to visit the areas of Lakas-KAMPI members and feel the pulse of the people there.

Simple--KABAYAN does not have the luxury of time to dilly-dally.

Same thing with the "opposition". They need to decide who among them would bear the tag "opposition standard bearer", because UNO needs to submit the name of their standard bearer and the names of their other candidates this October 2009. So, if they want to win, Erap Estrada should really decide who to support as their candidate.

What is clear at this point is:

1. Liberal Party would be fielding Mar Roxas as their standard bearer. The only question is--who between Senators Ping Lacson and Kiko Pangilinan would be his running mate?

2. Nacionalista Party is clear that they're fielding Manny Villar. Question is, who'll be his running mate? Would it be Bong Revilla? Or, would he slide down to the vice presidential post in deference to the entry of a Noli de Castro?

3. Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) has Chiz Escudero. His proclamation would be on October 10. Question is--who'll be his running mate? Would it be Loren Legarda?

4. UNO is sure to field Erap Estrada. Question---would Legarda allow herself to slide down to the vice presidential post? It seems likely. Now, should Legarda decide to put her fate in the NPC, then, definitely UNO would field an Estrada-Binay tandem.

5. Lakas-KAMPI has four (4) aspirants: Gilbert Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Bayani Fernando and Richard Gordon. Gordon, obviously, if asked, would slide down to a re-election as senator. Teodoro already said that he's only interested to run for the presidency; meaning, he'll not slide down. Fernando, by the way, seems to just be posturing. I think Fernando would be asked to just run as senator. Yet, even among the top senatoriables being surveyed by PulseAsia and SWS, Fernando's position is between 28 to 45---very, very far.

So, you see, only Lakas-KAMPI has (1) few options and (2) their candidates are weak in the popularity game, with the exception of De Castro. Now, if they field De Castro, would Teodoro give way and run as his V-P? That would surely alienate Ronnie Puno who already proclaimed his bid for the second top post. If they do not nominate De Castro, then, the only way for him is declare his independent candidacy.

Ronnie Puno and GiboTeodoro--out of Arroyo's circle

Puno has just arrived and denied that he underwent heart surgery, contrary to reports that came from the palace. However, notice his face. It's so swollen. Did Puno lied like what his boss did when she underwent a breast reduction surgery (which palace spokesperson described as biopsys)?

Puno also denied that he already fell from presidential grace. He just brushed off speculations that he's on the way out. Puno said that he still enjoys the "trust and confidence" of Arroyo. He even showed his force---a retinue of PNP officials---whom, as I was told, were asked to attend the press conference. What was the purpose of the "show of force"? To tell the palace that he's not a sissy?

Despite his denials, there are very strong talks about a Cabinet "reshuffle" shortly after the State of the Nation Address (SONA). Puno is reportedly being "eased out" of Arroyo's inner circle, not because of his opposition to cha-cha, but his reported "closeness" with Defense secretary Gilbert Gibo Teodoro who is now (confirmed) out of the loop. Malacanang is just waiting for the "right time" to do the re-shuffle. And why is Malacanang intent on changing Cabinet members? Another jab at Hello Garci two?

No. This is a classic display of self-preservation, to avoid a Honduran solution. Unknown to many, the Honduran coup is actually a covert US operation. It has the blessing of the Obama administration. It is part of the so-called "roll-back strategy" of the Obama administration to re-assert their presence in Latin American politics.

Now, the question really is---will the same thing happen right here? Yes, it will.

By the way, former president Fidel V. Ramos again urged Mrs. Arroyo to announce her political plans by way of the SONA on July 27. But, why now when Mrs. Arroyo's absent from the political scene? Naku, idol, I think you're just positioning. Why not tell that straight to Mrs. Arroyo's face? O, dare?

Clashes inside the Palace: Teodoro's Birthday Bash and FG's in HK

A few months ago, I remember how Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro publicly announced his desire to be anointed by Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Unlike other presidentiables, Teodoro did not believe that an anointment from Arroyo would be considered a "kiss of death". Teodoro said that he'll surely not push thru with his presidential candidacy without Arroyo's endorsement.

How would Teodoro feel if one or at least two of Mrs. Arroyo's family members already expressed their disapproval of him as the lady president's "heir apparent"?

Last June 28, during the birthday celebration of the First Gentleman in Hongkong, presidential son Mikey Arroyo had an unusual toast. Infront of about 60 to 70 or so guests of the First Gentleman who were bileted at the posh Island Shangri-La Hotel in Admiralty , Mikey reportedly expressed his disatisfaction and apparent dismay (some say disgust) against Teodoro. Describing his mother's defense secretary as "wily and crafty", the presidential son reportedly showed his personal animosity with Teodoro. Reportedly, the president just smiled while the First Gentleman reportedly looked on with an impish smile.

What precipitated this unexpected tirade against Teodoro? Some sources say it was the photo of US Defense secretary Robert Gates with his Filipino counterpart that increased suspicion among Arroyo family members that Teodoro is moving against the Chief Executive.

Sources say some palace officials close to the Arroyo clique expressed fears of Teodoro possibly using his increasing military network to undermine Mrs. Arroyo. Others, however, said that the Arroyos have a "personal thing" with Teodoro's wife who happens to be a Prieto.

Is this the reason why Teodoro, as some analysts observed, is being slowly eased out in Arroyo's inner circle? Or the Arroyo clique read something sinister behind the birthday bash of Teodoro last June 15?

Remember that two weeks prior, US Defense secretary Robert Gates met Teodoro. Gates visited the DND upon the personal invitation of Teodoro. Prior to Gates' departure, the highest US official of the Obama administration to visit Manila, expressed a glowing account of US-Philippine cooperation against terrorism. Insiders say, Gates virtually "endorsed" Teodoro.

Gate's visit was reportedly the cause for the thawing of relations between Arroyo and Teodoro. Arroyo was reportedly "unaware" of the visit of Gates. This visit was interpreted by close Arroyo advisers as evident proof that something is definitely "not right" in Teodoro's group.

Another proof that Teodoro is slowly being eased out was when Mrs. Arroyo decided not to ask Teodoro to accompany her in her visits in Japan and the Americas.

A source, a politician, however said he was not surprised with this latest development. What's happening, he says, is that some quarters within the palace are actually moving against Gibo to prop up Vice President Noli de Castro's standing within the Lakas-KAMPI party. Talks are reportedly underway to split the purported Teodoro-Puno tandem and replace it with a De Castro-Teodoro team, or a De Castro-Puno teamup. Some LAKAS-KAMPI officials favor a De Castro presidency since the chances of winning are high instead of a Teodoro-Puno.

Teodoro is supposed to announce his entry into the Lakas-KAMPI political party on the first week of July. What happened? Is Teodoro backing out and thinking of forming his own political party? Will this "new party" the one that would finally break the huge machinery of Lakas-KAMPI.

This early, some Lakas members already bolted the coalition and went to the Nationalist People's Coalition, while some, to the Nacionalista Party. Are these signs of a crumbling Arroyo regime?

Palace to make a move against Gibo soon?

Senator Frank Drilon, citing sources from the palace, says that Secretary Ebdane will head the Department of Defense (DND)--a move interpreted as a precursor to the declaration of martial law in the Philippines. What's curious is the expected "lateral" transfer of Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro to the Justice department, with now current head Agnes Devenadera to go back to her solgen post.

Why the justice department for Gibo? Is he not an effective soldier anymore for Gloria? Probably because of his strong public condemnation of martial rule yesterday, when he said that there's no such thing and he'll be first to oppose it, same stance as former president Fidel V. Ramos. Or, possibly, Gloria is afraid that Teodoro is gaining more and more adherents not just in the military, but moreso in civil society. I, myself, admired Teodoro's grit. He seems to be the perfect leader, having a good grasp of things and with a good and strong heart.

Maybe Teodoro is being eased out because he's getting bigger than his boss. Being a professional in Arroyo's Cabinet is not an admirable trait. What Gloria wants and likes are dogs. These people serve her well and calms her troubled mind.

Or possibly, maybe the justice portfolio is more apt for Gibo, since the post is more "controversial" and one can get more publicity juice out of it. Or, maybe, Gloria suspects that some group within the Cabinet is sabotaging her and wants a Honduran solution soon?

I asked my classmate what he thinks and he says that Gibo and Gloria are not seeing eye-to-eye anymore after Gibo's lavish birthday party. Gloria was not there, but her Cabinet members were. That party was interpreted by close Arroyo associates as a virtual Munich Putsch. Remember that even Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita was there to toast for Gibo.

An Oddity

It's so odd that, a few months prior to her downfall, err, the end of her term, Gloria is still making all these moves. Ebdane was formerly PNP chief and commands his own men inside the Philippine National Police (PNP) and AFP. Like DOTC secretary Leandro Mendoza, Ebdane was one of those who remained loyal to Madame, because they're friends of her husband, First Gentleman Mike Arroyo.

Ebdane remains very relevant to Mrs. Arroyo since his former subordinates now occupy highly sensitive posts within the AFP and PNP.

Consolidating power for what?

For an administration with a few months left, it's totally suspicious why the sudden re-shuffle. Is Gloria easing those not in her inner circle anymore and moving to consolidate all power to her group? Teodoro revealed that he's not too privy to what Arroyo thinks anymore, a possible sign of disengagement to the power center. (some say that the reshuffle will happen shorly during or after Arroyo's trip to Egypt)

Why consolidate power when you're virtually a lameduck at this point, except that you're preparing for something big soon?

The transfer of Ebdane, Arroyo's closest general, says something. This is actually an indirect admission that internal squabbles are really happening within the military establishment, for both glory and gold.

The defense department has a say on appointments in the AFP. With the current wrangling within the military and police, Arroyo probably sees the need to appoint someone very close to her so that her favored PMA class gets the top posts even while AFP Chief of Staff General Victor Ibrado stays as head.

The plan really is to undermine the leadership of Ibrado, subverting him by snatching the ranks beneath him, while allowing him to act as Chief of Staff. This is reminiscent of the moves by Lacson's group when he allowed his men to undermine then PNP Chief Roberto Lastimoso's leadership while allowing Lastimoso to "act" as PNP chief.

Bombings related to efforts to "delimit" Gibo's power as defense sec?

Arroyo's men know that its hard to dislodge Gibo from his seat, given his rising popularity. What would, however, justify this?

Instability. As what I wrote previously, this administration thrives in destabilization. It always gets what it wants shortly after a destabilized situation.

By creating a destabilized environment, Malacanang can now justify the removal of Gibo from defense and transfer him to the justice portfolio. The question really is---what's next?

More on this at http://daily2020.blogspot.com/. See you there.

Transition government, GMA-style with Teodoro as New Prexy

National security adviser Norberto Gonzales is at it again. He just gave a piece of his deranged mind when he again advocated for a transitional government that has the support of the military. He says that it's not good to proceed with the 2010 elections without first correcting the flaws of the system.

He may be right and I share his beliefs but I don't know if he realizes how stupid that proposition is if he says that Mrs. Arroyo heads this transition government. It's like saying that, yeah, we create a transition government to rectify the errors we made during the past nine years with the same people who created those errors as head of this government. Bull.

A transition government can only be good provided that everyone in the GMA administration, leaves their offices and go on an exile. And that includes BertGon.

Some quarters believe that the GMA administration will push the envelope by convening the Lower House into a Constituent Assembly by August. By that time, they will be well prepared.

The most effective strategy for oppositors to do is just let it be and ignore it. That'll be the strongest expression of disgust against con-ass---ignoring these scumbags and let them commit a patently illegal and immoral act. That is not to say that we will totally be complacent and just sit idly by while the winds of authoritarism blow us to the dark ages. No.

What we are saying is---let's prepare ourselves for the worst case scenario and be on guard against these illegal moves meant to justify a regime extension. Fr. Joaquin Bernas likened our situation with that of 1973 when former strongman Ferdinand Marcos rammed us with a fully infirm 1973 Constitution. Should Mrs. Arroyo and her henchmen do something similar to us, we should approach it differently.

Some sectors believe that Mrs. Arroyo's allies just want to change the provisions to spark a constitutional anomaly. That will only be a constitutional anomaly if someone from the opposition questions it before the Supreme Court.

I say, do not even try to file a case before the Highest Tribunal. The strongest opposition to this is just ignore it. Let them push this issue to its brink while we prepare our strongest countermeasure which is People's Power.

By the way....

There are talks that the Arroyo regime right now is split along ideological lines. One group pushes for a Teodoro-led government while the other one tinkers with term extension. Last night's birthday party of Teodoro saw several Cabinet members toasting their wine glasses together with the birthday boy. Signs that should the worst comes, they'll be a Teodoro-led transition government? Possible? Yes, it is.

Some are talking that, if the forces of change went pass the critical mass and closes its doors behind Mrs. Arroyo, the most logical alternative is a coup within the Arroyo regime.

Remember Mrs. Arroyo's speech last week urging for unity of forces? That speech is reportedly directed to some members of the Cabinet who are thinking of isolating and abandoning Mrs. Arroyo and replacing her with Teodoro.

A Teodoro-led transition government would solve a problem like Mrs. Arroyo and would allow her to go scot-free along with her relatives. It's verified that Mrs. Arroyo and her husband, the First Gentleman and big-time operator Mike Arroyo are scared shitless on the possibility of spending their retirement years in jail. That's why they're willing to spend millions just to assure themselves of a quiet time post-2010. However, most, if not all, are reluctant to strike a deal with her. Only Teodoro wants her to leave the palace unharmed.

So a transition government with Teodoro's generals initiating it, is sure to provide an alternative for Mrs. Arroyo and her enemies. And they are poised to do just that come August of this year should protests against charter change reach critical mass.

Erap's Magic and De Castro's Charm Offensive

Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro got a big boost today from US Secretary of State Robert Gates. Teodoro had the pleasure (and honor, of course) of welcoming Gates, since Mrs. Arroyo is on official travel to Korea and Russia.

In a virtual "endorsement", Gates said that the US expects the elections to proceed as planned in May 2010 and that they expect no extraconstitutional exercise to subvert it. That's cryptic. Probably Gates must have heard something of a plan by Mrs. Arroyo's lapdogs to launch a God Save the Queen and the US wants to be assured that no such foolish plan exists. Otherwise, Gates was very clear---the US will repulse any plan by any elitist faction to perpetuate a coup or extend Mrs. Arroyo's term through a self-coup.

Yet, this "virtual endorsement" coming from the highest Cabinet member of Obama's administration comes as no surprise, since, everybody knows how good the US thinks about Teodoro.

Gate's statement of praise for Teodoro would now shatter the "myth" being propagated by Bayani Fernando's handlers that he enjoys virtual support from the US, particularly his plan for the presidency. Like all Fernando's dreams, this one tops it.

Teodoro, some quarters say, will go down as a Senatorial candidate, in deference to Kabayan Noli de Castro. De Castro has been figuring quite brilliantly in surveys, the latest one, Pulse Asia, pitting him in a statistical "dead heat" with Nationalist People's Coalition (NCP) presidential wannabe Chiz Escudero (with 17%).

What is so significant about this Pulse Asia survey is the third place position of former president Joseph Estrada. Estrada has not announced his plan yet, but, even just an indication that he's running has been met with positive results.

I'll be writing extensively about the chances of this presidentiables in one paper but one thing is certain---Estrada is still a force to reckon with. His provincial sorties have been working wonders and the re-invigoration of the JEEP NI ERAP nationwide is contributing to this.

The question really is will Estrada regain the charismatic influence he had before. Surely, there is some semblance right now, but, compared in 1998, Erap's magic is somewhat pitifully low, considering that he has been touring the country almost unabated since his release from prison.

Now, the administration has been courting Vice President de Castro and some say, he's a virtual shoo-in for the presidency, of course, in tandem with lone vice presidential bet, Interior secretary Ronnie Puno. A De Castro-Puno tandem is formidable. However, their formidability could weaken with a split from either the Teodoro or Gordon ranks, in which case, that would surely lead to an opposition victory.

But, now, wait a minute. If you analyze the situation very closely, you'll lead to a conclusion that a third force could snatch everything away from De Castro and the Estrada camps. This is the most opportune time for a third force to win. Let me elucidate in the next entry.

Our 2010 Choices

Don't get me wrong---we have a bevy of talents for the Chief Executive post come 2010. This country does not lack people who dream of someday sitting in that wicked mahogany chair inside Malacanang and commanding like a powerful Sultan and deciding on the fate of 90 million. The presidency is the most powerful post in this land. He is the penultimate governor, albeit, the "governor of all governors." And he scours a vast territory of 7,100 islands, rich in natural resources and prime real estate properties. Under his command, he can sell these lands to foreigners and take billions as commissions. He can decide the fate of 24 million impoverished people by just an executive order discontinuing job placements abroad. He can make a million public servants lose their shirts or take on another million as his pious addition to a humongous bureacracy.

The presidency is so powerful that it is the best interest of everybody to ensure that, come 2010, it'll not go to the wrong hands. Since we are so fearful of changing this system prior to the 2010 elections, we better put our acts together come May 11, 2010 and ensure that the person who'll get the top plum really deserves it.

Who are our choices for the top post in 2010? Let me write about them as precisely and concisely as possible.

1. Mar Roxas. Roxas belongs to one of the richest clans in the country. He's a scion of two great families---one eminent in politics, the other, in business. The Aranetas own vast tracts of land both in Luzon and other parts of the country. The Roxas clan, meanwhile, enjoys the distinction of being once in Malacanang, cut short with the sudden death of Manuel Roxas, the clan patriarch.

Roxas started as a brilliant banker who returned to the country after EDSA uno. He went out of his comfort zone and went head-first to politics after the death of another relative, Gerry Roxas. He first took government posts, positioning himself as a brilliant technocrat and with his sterling record as a public servant, got the highest number of votes as a senatoriable.

He's young, brilliant and possesses a strong, stubborn mien.

2. Chiz Escudero. Chiz inherited his political genes from his father, former Agriculture Minister Salvador Escudero. While his father failed to get the senatorial post, Chiz succeeded him. With his glib tongue, he served as the spokesperson of the opposition. He positioned himself as a fighter of lost causes. He was there when Fernando Poe Jr. died. And when the Big Man passed away, Chiz also passed away. He went under the succor of his party, the NPC, peopled with trapos. He used his affinity with FPJ and the opposition to get the second highest number of votes for senator. Despite his denials, Chiz is salivating for the presidency. That's why he now faces a very tough opponent in the person of Senator Loren Legarda who also wants to get the blessing of NPC financial giant, Danding Cojuangco.

Chiz is young, somewhat idealistic and a liar. He wants people to believe he came from the poor, when everybody knows how rich the Escuderos are. He has no executive post experience, possesses scant knowledge of how to hurdle the deleterious effects of transactional politics and only knows how to placate dissenting feelings through motherhood statements. He offers no agenda of governance except "Truth, Justice and Peace."

3. Gilbert Teodoro. Teodoro is a brilliant guy, finished his studies abroad and returned to serve. Like Mar Roxas, Gilbert belongs to a political clan with various business interests. His family is known all throughout as hacienderos. He was once a legislator and was appointed defense secretary by Arroyo, replacing former ally Avelino Cruz.

As defense secretary, he purportedly professionalize the ranks. Yes, professionalize it. He allowed General Jovito Palparan to arrest, detain and kill political opponents of this administration. He defended the human rights record of this administration by justifying these killings and desaperridos in the name of anti-insurgency. He also made sure that those generals under their protective wing are happy, contented and fully satisfied with all those deals in the defense department.

4. Loren Legarda. Legarda started her career as a journalist and ended up as a professional politician. She was reared in the ways of politics by former president Fidel V. Ramos who saw enormous promise in her. She took up Masters in Defense Administration and graduated with honors. She's a workaholic, a tireless worker who burn the midnight oil just to read and write laws. She nearly took the vice presidency from fellow broadcaster Noli de Castro only to fall victim to vicious dagdag bawas.

Legarda was once married to Batangas governor Tony Leviste, who now faces possible jail time due to his killing his closest associate. She came in first in the senatorial polls in 2007 and wants to take another dig at the presidency. She obviously enjoys the trust and confidence of the people but lack the necessary resources to push thru with her ambition. If she is patient enough to wait in 2016, she may yet see her ambition realized.

5. Noli de Castro. De Castro started as a journalist. He really came from the poorest families in the country. He arrived here in Manila without any decent money and worked as a production assistant in RPN 9. Some of my older colleagues in RPN 9 says he used to sleep in the driver's quarters. His break came when the late Inday Badiday hired him as voice announcer for her highly rated showbiz program.

His big break came when he was hired by ABS-CBN 2 to become the lead anchor in the revitalized TV Patrol. He was given his own show, Magandang Gabi Bayan, which became an instant hit. He ran as senator and won. He again ran for the vice presidency and took it under suspicious circumstances. He reportedly now enjoys the backing of PLDT head honcho Manny Pangilinan. He continues to top the surveys but his lack of political party is a liability. He may have to settle for a movement which PLDT/SMART is reportedly launching for him in the next few weeks.

6. Richard Gordon. Gordon was a staunch pro-American when calls for the abolition of the Military Bases Agreement (MBA) were the "in" thing. Gordon was mayor of Olongapo when the Aquino government, along with a purely nationalist Senate, abrogated the MBA. At first, Gordon did not believe that Olongapo and Bataan would survive a post-troop pullout. Yet, when Aquino gave him full rein as Subic administrator, Gordon backtracked and made a 180 degree turn. He immediately announced that yes, the Filipino can rise from this debacle. He turned Subic into a world-class port facility. During his term as SBMA administrator, he inspired many with his philosophy of voluntarism.

Gordon ran and won a senate seat. There, he excelled in a rather silent fashion. He speaks when necessary and gives his stand when the occasion needs it. He's a pragmatic nationalist. He offers nothing new and says nothing new. He, along with his supporters, want to project that he's the Filipino version of Obama; yet, the more he does it, the more people see his trapo side. Gordon is a weak shadow of Obama.

7. Ed Panlilio. Ed is a priest who rose from the sidelines and ran as Governor of Pampanga. He defeated a jueteng lord and a known collector of quarrying activities in the province. Many opposes him because he defeated the Pinedas, the decades-old jueteng overlords in the province. Yet, many are now slowly realizing that Ed is a poor administrator. Look at Pampanga. Nothing has changed. People remain poor. What Ed can offer to a change hungry Nation is just a sermon--good for the soul yet bad for the body.

8. Manny Villar. Villar, as his publicist says, started work as a fish vendor. After that, Villar's personal history is, at best, spotty. Nothing is known about how Villar started his way up to become a billionaire. He is widely known as the country's most eminent real estate magnate. Malicious tongues wag that he grabs lands, here and there, illegally and legally. He started giving homes to millions of Filipinos, scrimping on construction costs and making those houses in poorly allotted lots. Villar started the practice of transforming idle agricultural lands into paved subdivisions.

He ran as Congressman of Las Pinas and worked his way up as Speaker of the House. An ally of former president Joseph Estrada, Villar betrayed his friend by allowing the impeachment to go pass the lower house. Villar then went to the Arroyo side and the rest is history. Using his vast resources, Villar ran for the senate and won. He became Senate president under an agreement with former senator Frank Drilon and nothing substantial came out of his term.

He now faces a Senate ethics probe for his Daang Hari properties and some say risks the ignominy of being the first post-EDSA senator ousted from the august chamber due to unethical practices.

9. Bayani Fernando. A joker. A person who does not deserve attention nor to be taken seriously. Last night, he was so afraid to face the public. He chickened out. His only claim to fame are those steel bridges which his company benefits from and those U-TURN slots, dangerous construction works. He's the administration's tirador, just to confuse the 2010 elections. COMELEC should regard him as nuisance candidate.

Teodoro should resign now to level the playing field

Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro should resign from his Cabinet portfolio, right now, while all these political maneuverings happen in the AFP. Why? Because he stands to benefit from all these AFP re-organization should he really run either for the presidential or the vice presidential posts in 2010. (see previous posts on AFP re-organization). Or even, for that matter, a seat in the Senate.

We all know that the key towards election victory here in the Philippines is simply having the right number of Generals at your side come election time. Generals control major areas considered their "turf" and they use these as political leverages. Generals take an active part in the elections. They are the silent "king-makers" in their territories (with the exception of those provinces under the Northern Alliance. There, civilians serve as kingmakers, not the other way around). They decide who wins and who loses.

With Teodoro still at the helm of the defense department, he enjoys the privilege of being the ultimate kingmaker. He may not have the billions of Villar, nor the masa appeal of Erap, but, he sure stands to gain from all these maneuverings happening inside the AFP organization.

If things continue, we may yet find ourselves waking up one morning to find Teodoro either as president or vice-president.

If we are to assess the chances of Teodoro, he stands a better chance of winning either posts than say, Villar or Mar Roxas or even Erap.

First, he has a political machinery. Second, he has the military hierarchy to back him up. And third, Teodoro has massive resources for his disposal. He can fund a grass-roots organization from the ground up.

And in a multi-party elections such as ours in 2010, administration bets are sure to win since the possibility of a minority president is now being floated around. Teodoro or a De Castro win will be justified.

And we all know who are behind either Teodoro and Noli....they have military men inside their organizations.

Yano retires to become Ambassador

Why the sudden haste for AFP Chief of Staff Alex Yano to abandon the AFP Top post on May 1? Yano is retiring one month early to give way to new AFP Chief of Staff Ibrado. As I said in my previous post, Ibrado is just a bogey to allow Mrs. Arroyo's hatchet man, Lt. Gen. Delfin Bangit to assume the top command in the May 2010. Ibrado will also retire one month early, on February 2010 to allow Bangit to assume full control of the military during the 2010 elections.

Why Bangit as AFP Chief of Staff in 2010? Two reasons: First, to take an active part in the administration victory in 2010 and two, to assume top command in the event of a declaration of a State of Emergency or worst, martial rule should a failure of elections happen.

Bangit is this administration's final option for a term extension.

As we speak, Yano is preparing for his "graceful" exit from the military to an ambassadorial post in Brunei Darussalam. Yano will be joining the growing ranks of ex-military men in the bureaucracy.

Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro said that Yano will be a fitting member of the diplomatic corps and will serve as a crucial cog of the government panel in negotiations with Brunei Darussalam.

What Teodoro is NOT saying is this---Yano opted to retire early to save face. After Teodoro's announcement of Ibrado's appointment, Yano became a "lame duck". Projects and plans are not submitted to Yano's office anymore. Poor Yano. The professional soldier has been politicized.

Our Ideal President, part 2

Dick Gordon's Voluntarism

When Mt. Pinatubo erupted way back in the 90's, American troops decided to leave the country. Clark and Subic were abandoned. Thousands of Filipino families who depended on these two American military bases were left to fend for themselves. Some were hopeless. Others just went to other places to find work. Most stayed because someone gave them hope and inspiration.

Through the courage of former president Cory Aquino, preparations were made to administer the two military bases. She tasked then Olongapo mayor Richard "Dick" Gordon to administer SBMA. Many thought that the base would just be left as a "shell" of a place, since many business interests want to exploit its rich natural resources.

But, no. Exemplifying good leadership, Gordon launched what he called then as "voluntarism". He urged the idealistic youth to go with him to SBMA and transform the place. He instituted discipline. He laid down the rules and made sure that everybody, and anybody who enters the area follow the prescribed law.

Gordon and his volunteers protected Subic's natural treasures like it was their own. No one touched the pristine jungle. Animals were also protected. Yes, Gordon opened SBMA to business but did'nt take all those who want to set up shop in. They need to be qualified. And these businesses should exercise environmental responsibility and stewardship.

Gordon's legacy is still being felt at SBMA. Recently, me and my family went to the place and everybody, and I say, everyone continues to follow the rules (especially traffic enforcement) inside the base. How did Gordon manage to do that---make the Filipino follow the rules?

Dick, despite his poor showing at surveys, has some of the qualifies that we need for our 2010 president. He shows exemplary leadership skills. He's charismatic and leads by example. He's intelligent. And he's fair. His conduct during the Joc-Joc Bolante probe was fair. When everybody thought that he'll just insulate Joc-Joc Bolante and the palace because he's a perceived administration ally, Gordon did the opposite. He allowed both parties---the accusers and the accused--fair share of airtime.

However, Dick's weakness lie in his being self-absorbed some of the time. He thinks he's right all the time, says an observer. Shades of a tyrant?

Loren Legarda's Green Advocacy and Leviste's Shadow

After graduating with top honors from the National Defense College, Loren was immediately pulled out of the broadcast industry by then president Fidel V. Ramos and was made a senatorial candidate. Because of her integrity as a top-notch broadcaster, Loren shot up to the Number One slot. She continued her advocacy to protect the environment and strengthen the rights of women. Loren took part in some of the historical milestones of this country, which led some observers to consider her as a very serious contender for the presidency.

However, talks about her former husband's pervasive influence upon her smeared her chances. Malicious tongues wag about how former Batangas governor Tony Leviste influenced some of the bills she successfully filed and passed at the Senate. Many perceive Leviste as Loren's alter-ego. He's the real senator, some say, not Loren. Other personal issues cropped up. Some even commented about her temper, which, basing their experience with Mrs. Arroyo, even compared her with the former.

Yet, all these things have been put behind her. Leviste is now serving sentence for allegedly killing his aide. With Leviste out of the picture, Loren is perceived to have now been freed from the dark shadow of her former husband. Loren and Tony also dissolved their marriage, which some quarters say, is questionable from the beginning since Tony is still allegedly married to someone else.

Loren is perceived to be strong based on surveys, but weak in reality. She's not being supported enough by financiers. Coming from a tumultuous reign of a woman, many think that Loren's chances to get the top executive post remain very slim. People will not vote for another woman.

Another question---who are the financial backers of Legarda? Are they of unquestionable integrity or the same old traditional economic forces out to perpetuate their rule upon us? Like what I wrote previously, Loren, like Mar, Chiz, De Castro and the rest, should all come clean and show the people their list of financial and military supporters.

Binay's Transformation

Makati mayor Jojo Binay ruled the country's financial district right after former president Cory Aquino appointed him as city administrator. Binay immediately created his mass base. He passed laws that favor the poor, without taxing the rich more. He equalized opportunities to every Makati resident. By doing so, he not only solidified his base of support which continues to show at the polls in full force of him, he also instituted real change in his city.

From a recognized and highly principled human rights lawyer, Binay transformed into one of the country's top local executives. Binay's rule over Makati has spanned decades. Now, he's being touted as a presidential candidate.

Like Gordon, Binay remains at the very low end of the surveys. Name recall is high, yet his trust ratings remain very low. Maybe because people still think of him as just a mayor, good only for Makati. His long stay at the Makati city hall probably impacted on public perception of him as just a mayor, not for the "big guns" such as Malacanang.

His handlers are positioning him as "Jojo-bama" or the Filipino version of US President Barack Obama, playing on his skin color. But, that will not work. His career is actually similar with that of former New York mayor Julianni. However, no US mayor has ever ascended the presidency.

Likewise, some of the elite hate Binay's guts. Some commented on the iron-fisted traffic policy inside Makati, reinforcing perceptions that the city remains under Binay's tight rein. Corruption charges were also brought up against Binay, and these have not been resolved, just yet. Binay remains a strong and credible voice of the Opposition though. His fight against the palace sometime in 2007 left a very lasting impression upon the people.

These things have got to be communicated to the people, if Binay is really dead serious on running for the presidency.

Gilbert Teodoro---Gloria's Defensive Line Backer

Teodoro just recently announced his intention to run for the presidency. Unlike other presidential candidates, Teodoro gave one thing which stupefied even those who truly like him to become the next president--he gave a categorical statement that he'll run only if Mrs. Arroyo gave her the go-signal. When almost everybody, including some administration allies, try to avoid being associated with the devil enfant, Teodoro was the only exception.

Teodoro was probably joking, some say. But no. Teodoro was resolute. He wanted Mrs. Arroyo to commit her support to his candidacy. Many analysts already said that by doing so, Teodoro just committed a political harakiri.

Like Gordon and Chiz, Teodoro is an astute politician. He has a legal mind. He graduated with a Commerce degree from the De La Salle University and finished law at the University of the Philippines College of Law, top honors. He pursued further legal studies in Harvard.

He has legislative experience and now as Defense secretary, Teodoro gained executive experience. His handlers want to position him as a Magsaysay, but the similarity is just superficial. Magsaysay was a World War two veteran who ascended the defense secretary portfolio due to sheer hard work. Magsaysay was a mechanic before he became defense secretary and eventually endeared himself as the People's Guy due to his pro-poor stance and his fairness with the Huks.

Teodoro is not a Magsaysay, not for a mile. Teodoro belongs to the elite, controlled by his uncle, Danding Cojuangco. Everyone knows that Danding wants to perpetuate his economic influence and the only way to do that is control Malacanang. He has three contenders who are sure to protect his turf from economic and political predation once Mrs. Arroyo leaves the palace and they are Chiz, Loren and his nephew, Teodoro.

Teodoro has not been entirely fair with the dissidents of this country. He wants them annihilated, an act considered as pandering to the military elite. Teodoro is a technocrat. He has not shown any real intention of pursuing the People's Cause and remains subsevient to his socio-economic class.

Teodoro is a poor copy of Magsaysay. In fact, his poor showing at the surveys reveal much about the people's perception and trust of him. Truly, Teodoro is not just a poor copy---he's also the exact opposite of a Magsaysay. Magsaysay was never a poster boy of the military elite, which Teodoro wittingly or unwittingly play at this point.

Additional Criteria for us to consider come 2010 Presidential elections

1. He/she must pass laws that equalize economic opportunities for both the rich and the poor.
2. He/she must try to improve on the agrarian situation in this country.
3. He/she must be the primary example of fairness
4. He/she must be a charismatic leader
5. He/she must have a strong political will.

Next....who are the most qualified presidential candidates.

Ibrado as AFP Chief to succeed Yano

Lt. General Ibrado's appointment as successor to AFP Chief of Staff Alex Yano is a political masterstroke. Ibrado is a bunkmate of Yano and a brilliant professional soldier, member of PMA Class 1976. By not appointing a PMA 1978 just yet (in the person of Gen. Delfin Bangit), the Arroyo administration averted what could possibly trigger disillusionment among the ranks. The early announcement of Ibrado was also a very deft move. It avoided the costly war among PMAers who are intending to get the top AFP plum.

However, what is significant is Ibrado will only serve until March 10, 2010 or two months prior to the elections. This is alarming. True, Teodoro and Mrs. Arroyo wanted to avoid those PMAers jockeying for the AFP post NOW but actually triggered a very long and protracted AFP C-S post jockeying onward until 2010.

Meaning, from June 2009 to March 2010, top generals, especially those with AFP C-S ambitions, will make themselves open especially to the appointing power, Mrs. Arroyo. And we all know who secured the victory of Mrs. Arroyo in 2004---it was the Generals.

By appointing Ibrado, Mrs. Arroyo just secured the loyalties of PMA Class 1977, 1978 and even 1979--all three PMA classes-- who have generals in the AFP.

Likewise, it allowed Mrs. Arroyo to effectively control the entire Philippine Army, the largest branch of the AFP, thru her factotum, the very controversial Bangit. Bangit, as you will remember, hosted a lavish party when he was the ISAFP chief. He even threw huge sums of money, all 1,000 peso bills, like an "emperor", his codename.

Like an "emperor", Bangit is expected to instill dogged discipline among the ranks. He's preparing for the hard task ahead as Mrs. Arroyo's last AFP chief in 2010. That task, says some very suspicious and malicious tongues, involve securing the victories of administration-backed candidates in 2010. Or, worst, securing the second-generation conjugal dictatorship when it ushers a totally different political system come 2010.

Of course, Mrs. Arroyo and her minions already pre-planned everything. But, as they say, the political and economic climate is sooo fluid right now, anything can happen. Except, of course, if the Games of the Generals changes tack very soon.

ICRC workers' lives in extreme danger

Two of Mrs. Gloria Arroyo's lieutenants are bickering over the Sulu ICRC Hostage crisis. Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro castigated Senator Richard Gordon, an ally of Arroyo, for saying that the lives of the hostages are now in the hands of the president. This rabid administration dog wanted to shield his boss from brickbats later on. However, this betrays the real intention of the government.

Teodoro does'nt feel like talking with the hostages. For him, enough concessions have already been given. It's not for Gordon. For the head of the Philippine Red Cross, a troop pullout is needed to allow negotiations to continue. An inch of pullback would be enough to allow representatives of the ASG and the government to negotiate for the safe release of the two ICRC hostages, Notter and Vagni.

This is a very dangerous play these two jerks are playing. They're putting the very lives of these ICRC workers in extreme jeopardy. By bickering in public, they're both justifying the use of force and they're both telling us to just accept the terrible consequence later on. They are priming for an attack against the ASG.

What these government officials don't know is they're both playing in the hands of the ASG. Their public bickering would justify what the ASG wanted all along---behead the hostages and show the world that they mean business. They did it before and they're willing to do it again moreso now that even the Pope is watching the developments in that part of Mindanao.

Wittingly or unwittingly, these two government officials have now placed the very lives of these foreign hostages in extreme jeopardy. I would'nt be surprised if we get news that one of the two have already been executed.

Government want an assault. They want to feed on the machismo, the bravado and the confidence of the commander on the ground, to the detriment of the hostages and their families.

Actually, even prior to the release of Lacaba, government has planned for an assault. They want to show the world that they can defeat the ASG by the use of force, consistent with the US policy. They want to show Washington that Mrs. Arroyo is tough against terror.

This justifies what I have earlier wrote here----the government of Mrs. Arroyo, especially those hawks within the palace, want negotiations to fail to justify an armed encounter with the bandit group. This is just a palabas, a show, meant to appease their bosses over at the Pentagon and the State Department. Mrs. Arroyo wants to sacrifice the lives of the International Red Cross workers to show the US that it is serious in fighting intransigent elements in the country.

I say it again, what these jerks intend to do is based on a misreading of the situation.

Panlilio vs. Teodoro

Pampanga governor Ed Panlilio says he'll prosecute Mrs. Arroyo for crimes against the people should he be elected as her successor. While another "presidentiable", Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, true to his designation, will obviously "defend" her. In fact, he's not going against the grain of popular perception. He's staking everything just to get that "precious" anointment.

Two very different personalities that aims to change Philippine politics. One bravely told the people how he intends to deal with a devil enfant while another says much about patron-client relationship. One wants to serve what the people want; while the other wants to frustrate the ends of justice and perpetually perpetuate the cycle of injustice by allowing the postergirl of corruption go scot-free.

Panlilio is feeding into the hatred and pessimism being felt by the people in relation to Mrs. Arroyo. While the other, Teodoro, seems to promote a Gandhian way in dealing with the devil.

In dark times, using the sword is better than just releasing a dove. This Panlilio vs. Teodoro thing is a stark display of how Filipinos view justice. One perceives justice as the Justice of the People; while the other, Justice for the Powerful. What a way to go---two "Northerners" (Panlilio hails from Pampanga; while the other, Tarlac) almost pulling Mrs. Arroyo into half.

Presidential Fitness: A revelation of how "fit" prexy bets are

If the 2010 presidential race is just a marathon, the most obvious winner is Cheez Escudero. He's young. He's athletic. And he exercises a lot.

Escudero enjoys wide support coming from a cross-section of society. Right now, he's the strongest contender among the presidentiables. Heard from a good friend from the State department that Escudero already "secured" assurances from certain officials in Washington of support; yet, these remains to be seen.

Escudero, like Teodoro, has the full backing of Western powers, coffee shop habitues whisper. That explains why Escudero right now is touring US-aligned countries, like Australia, not just courting their support; but more importantly, widening his diplomatic networks in preparation for that "big job" at the palace.

News that I heard say that foreign governments requested Escudero to visit their countries since his name was never mentioned before nor has he even registered as a contending force for the top post.

How about the other presidentiables? Obviously, there's a concern.

Joseph "Erap" Estrada has a knee injury and is considered "obese". By obese, he's prone to illnesses. Yet, he has now barn stormed most of Luzon, the Visayas and now, Mindanao. Despite his hefty physique and obvious beer belly, it's amazing how he manage to survive the stresses of these "Pasasalamat" sorties.

His health is the least of Erap's worries since he needs to attend to two more important things--his relationship with the Chinese community and that strained one with the State department.

Two things going against an Erap repeat---the constitutional infirmity which the Supreme Court is wont to resolve in his favor; and the obvious displeasure of the State department of another "destabilized" Philippine situation under Erap.

Manny Villar, as one close adviser say, is sick. This explains why Villar has not been seen roaming the country lately. Some say he's into medication; but for what, has not been explained.

A Villar presidential bid will, in all certainty, fail. Yes, he has the monies. Yes, he probably has the machinery. Yet, his weak physique and the confused state of his own political party especially his own internal campaign organization would succumb to the pressures and stresses of a full national campaign.

The most obvious direction to take for Villar is gun for a vice presidential post, either with Roxas or, remain as a presidential candidate with Legarda as his running mate.

Loren Legarda, meanwhile, remains a tireless campaigner, second to Erap. She's been roaming around the country, attending even funerals and festivals. Yet, the most obvious question is--would all these efforts be put to waste if she fails to clinch the NPC nomination? She appears strong and willing; yet, there are forces within her own party who wants nothing of her. She does'nt have a big campaign kitty. And she's on the verge of losing the NPC nomination because certain quarters want to ease her out.

Mar Roxas' campaign, so far, has reached an unsurmountable blank wall. Despite the ingenuity and creativity of his PR and Marketing staff, Roxas' ratings have plateaued. Why? I think Roxas suffered what I call the "early announcement" syndrome.

What do you expect from announcing your candidacy early on? Gravity is a universal law. It affects even survey ratings.

First, your every move, would be subject to suspicion. People will tag your every press release as "political" and obviously, all campaigns that you'll do will, again, enjoy that suspicion of being "political" and "self-serving".

Second, there's nothing of interest to talk about Roxas right now, like what's happening to Gordon and Bayani Fernando. Interestingly, despite attempts by Roxas to distance himself from "trapos", he's still lumped together with them. People have not dis-associated Roxas from trapos simply because

Lastly, there's Noli de Castro.

Yes, Noli is popular. Yes, Noli's name has a 97% recall among voters. But, if you look at his campaign, it's neither here nor there.

Pitted against Estrada for example, Noli could very well lose the fight. He does'nt have any money going into a national campaign and his campaign does'nt seem to have a recall or even a feedback from voters. Noli is being likened to Erap; hence, there seems to have that disdained look from middle class voters.

So, given this long backdrop, that explains why many people consider Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro as a "blackhorse".

Yet, it remains to be seen whether Teodoro's announcement has registered in the minds of the voters and if the people would consider him as a "viable" choice as president.

Aside from this, Teodoro is the most sickly of all the presidentiables. He has asthma. He's under medication too, like Villar. It's doubtful whether he can survive the gruelling campaign trail. With this heat, Teodoro's lungs might not be able to cope with the stresses.